Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20160824 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Mad Money August 24, 2016

Twist thrown in. Should be tattooed on our foreheads if were going to invest in this market. The s p declined 2 . But twice in the last six years, twice, weve had flash crashes, including one that occurred this very day last year, 2015. Whats a flash crash . Its when the market drops quickly, almost in the blink of an eye, resulting in a dramatic down turn of about 1,000 dow points. Its not the definition of an afternoon plummet six years, hence the fool me once, fool me twice rule. Thats why i want to set up some crash rules so youll be ready when the next one comes. Notice i didnt say if. I said when. Because if you implement good rules, were dealing with machines. We know machines break. Its what happens. Lets go over the very basics of what cause a crash. Something that was thought to trigger truly horrendous here that we couldnt grasp. It produces a tremendous amount of fear and paralysis, at post 9 00, im trying to figure out what was going on. We in the cross hairs of multiple stocks bidding machine guns, in a free fire zone, where we didnt know if we should duck under the table or run for our lives. Why was it so jarring . Even though we fully expected a decline going in, this tv trucks were down there, giving an 8 fall in the chinese stock market right before and glib comments from the Federal Reserve chair. We couldnt be exactly sure where the markets were. We didnt know what the prices were. So opaque. What was the point of telling you to go buy something when we didnt know the real prices other than they looked down a lot. When we asked around, we got no answers from anywhere around on the floor. And it was not clear where actual stocks were trading. I was looking at general electrics and secellgene. It was pure guesswork. Now contrast that with a the 998point brake down. We didnt know what the cause was at the time. We heard that it might be that greece was in imminent danger of defaulting. What else is new . And we had troubling footage of riots in the streets of athens, but there were no explanations. We had to resume that something horrendous had to be happening. As if somehow our assets were being tossed no a grill of kingsfords, set on fire. Perhaps because i traded through the 1987 crash from a basis of a tenth of where the dow is now, i had the suspicion that something was just plain wrong with the machine, the machines that control the stocks, but not the companies themselves. I happened to be on tv at the time of that flash crash. Lets go to the videotape, the videotape from the 2010 crash. What were seeing rate now, i mean, maybe, talk about capitulation. Lets look at p g, it is now down 25 . Thats true. That stock is just there you go and buy it. A few minutes ago it wasnt, i just said go buy it. Right in the middle, go buy p g. Lets say the precipitating cause was greece. I figured, so what, people still need to shave, wash clothes, whatever. Two, Procter Gamble pays a dividend. Its why its a core position on my charitable trust. Interest bonds are down. Three, proctors liquid. P g trades like water. Why does that matter . Its absolutely vital that you dont use market orders in a volatile situation, but you do want to get something done with limits. Listen to what i said about limits on p g. You have to use limited orders. I liked it at 49. Its too bad the system obviously broke down when it went down 400. We are trying to get the specialists from p g to talk about what happened. The machines did fail. It was obvious, why is it obvious . Ive been around forever. Its entirely possible if you used a market order that day you would have brought proctor all the way back up to where it was even. They are messy things. You can get hosed by the machines. However, if you use the limit order, it still would have been a real bargain before the selloff you would have gotten amazing prices. Many people told me, e mailed me to say thank you. It worked. Now whats the real lesson here . When you suspect that you have a flash crash on your hands, you have to be ready with your own Procter Gamblelike ideas. What are proctor ideas for right now . We heard from the ceo of General Mills. Theres a company of what im talking about. General mills has always been completely committed, deeply to its dividend, having paid a dividend for 116. It yields nearly 2. 7 thats good. Where would you be comfortable, like sleep at night comfortable. Maybe you should put a limit around 60. Wouldnt you love to own a serial dividend player at that bargain place . You keep buying lower and maybe with a 50 top. Worstcase scenario, you dont get hit. Maybe basically selling stock to you at your price. So you come back in empty handed after hopefully getting some shares at a little higher level, but below where the flash crash started. I would build up other stocks that you like, those with little Economic Sensitivity because we dont know what the actual cause of the next flash crash might be. And we dont want to be glib as to think there isnt something wrong with the economy. Theyre backed by companies with long histories of being able to pay dividends through thick and thin. We know General Mills paid dividends through two world wars, a Great Depression and a recession. Beyond that anything else would seem like childs play. Because of the erratic way machines break down, i would go with others of the noncyclical i ilk. Pepsico. But like verizon and at t. Heres where its from. Heres the bottom line. When the next flash crash occurs, we might not have the luxury to research whats going on. We may not be able to see the procters of the world actually trading down, but we will be ready with our limits, and yes, well even be salivating for the next flash crash so we can brag that not only were we there, but we made a killing. Lets go to edward in alabama. Caller hey, jim, big booyah from alabama. Nice, man, roll. Lets go. Caller listen. Thank you for pointing me towards sisco earlier in the year. Its been a huge success. And its added to my position and i want to consider a core holding, but i dont want to get burnt. I think Chuck Robbins is doing a great job. Were keeping it that way. Think you should too. Lets go to norman in pennsylvania. Norman. Caller jim, booyah, nice to have you back. Im calling about vie yeah com. It is a spec that doesnt have good fundamentals. Cvs has been run ably, so i would say not the drugstore. Gwen. Caller thank you. We need you we need you youre too dikind. Caller i want to be highflying with southwest airlines. Luv. Im concerned about the zika, terrorists, other potentially negative factors, what do you advise . If you want an airline, youve got the right airline, southwest is the best. I think the group is in a real bad way, but i think southwest will thrive. I do brief the railroads are way up to the upside. Now we have flash crash rules. I want you to be thinking about verizon and at and t and dominion and pepsico. This is the world we live in now. So we might as well have a Shopping List ready, dont you think . On mad tonight, from calvin to tommy to vanheusen. Can pvh remain the tar of tstar runway . Then what feddy has to say on friday. Workday, changing the business of doing business. Could this Earnings Report be the latest seen of a turn . Im going to talk with a ceo fresh off earnings. So stick with cramer. Dont miss a second of mad money. Follow j jimcramer. Send jim an email at cnbc. Com. Or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to mad money at cnbc. Com. Ss if you arent already convinced that retails doing a lot better than we thought it was a month ago, look at the quarter from pvh, the Apparel Company known for calvin klein and tommy hilfigehilfiger. The company has been able to start executing this year after spending some, okay, time in the wilderness. After a beef off a 1. 29 basis. Tommy hilfiger grew at 3 in north america, and these numbers are better if you look at them on a Constant Currency basis. Plus bullish the next quarter. Ra the stock has had a huge run off his bottom. Dont expect it to explode up. Lets check in with the chairman and ceo of pvh, welcome back to mad money. Nice to see you. Your stock leads everything. You were here when everyone was doom and gloom, and you said inventories are getting leaner and things could be better. It played out exactly as you said. Especially in north america. Inventory is getting under control. The story really has been a profitability model. And i think that story continues as we go into the third and Fourth Quarter in north america. I have to believe that that kind of builds into a pretty good back to school season. Were optimistic about it. Were ambitious on the top line but i think given our guidance, i would like to think were prudent on how were projecting the second half of the year, but there could be more upside against the numbers we put out there. Theres a little confusion on the absolute channel. If theyre closing 100 stores and theyre scaling back, it cannot necessarily, i mean, it has to constrain your growth, doesnt it . For calvin and tommy, were seeing pretty Significant Growth with macys and and our Department Store customers. The tough part of the business for us in north america is are Retail Stores in tourist destinations. Houw many do you have in florida and new york . Were talking about big stores that do big volumes and are still very profitable. Just like Macys Herald Square store. I think theyre being impacted to a degree by International Tourists in new york. Now you still have a lot of countries that have weaker currencies. We cant just look at the euro and say hey, thats no longer an excuse, your baskets not good versus the dollar. Thats correct. As we turn into the second half, particularly into the Fourth Quarter and going to next year, from currencies being a headwind for the last 24 months, i think we could actually see currencies be a bit of a tailwind if they stay at these current levels. The euro, relatively where the euro was this time last year, its up a few pennies, and the prospects in europe are pretty strong. Do i have to worry about tommy . No. Theyre up. Very strong. The u. S. Business under more pressure, particularly in the u. S. Side of it. Is that, again, the i think the big part of it is International Tourists. But it was up internationally, 8 . So very strong. In europe, four was all was up spring is expected to be up 7 . Were hearing that fashion is back. What does that mean for your fashionforward clothes and the market . Lets simplify. In north america, last years end of third quarter, beginning of Fourth Quarter, i know some would say its a disaster, we talk about weather. Basically, inventories are being bought tight. Dollars are being under control. We came out of the quarter with inventories flat, with sales increases planned for the balance of the year. You spoke about some of the retailers, macys, nordstroms, their inventorys clearly under control. A big opportunity for everyone is to capture sales but to really capture gross margin. But the Fourth Quarter was a bit of a bloodbath last year, so that comparison plays well for us. And weve got north america planned pretty cautiously in our guidance. Were of the opinion that bricks and mortars no longer in the doghouse. But you have the relationship with amazon. You want to straddle both worlds . Yeah. You have to go where the consumer is. Stores are not going away, but we spoke about the fact that theres too many stores in the united states. Macys, to their credit said we have to close 100 stores, i think that will put some top n line pressure. Those were not the most profitable locations. You are a straight shooter. I saw the tweet about speedo and the lochte matter. You had a tough decision, but you had to make it. It wasnt so tough. It was unfortunate. I said, we cant condone that kind of behavior. Our brand values, what we stand for as a company and as a brand is too important for us, and our consumers look to us. Ryans been a terrific athlete. He made a mistake, but it was a mistake that a 32yearold man shouldnt be making. So we had an action that spoke to him and tried to mitigate that action by making the charitable donation to support children in brazil. Thats great, for that save the children. You talked about the tough times at macys, anybody better . I think the problem is going to be continue to outperform expectations. Inventories are a key across the board. Youve heard everyone come on and speak for you. I dont have to speak for nordstroms or penneys, were talking about comp growth. I think that happens, gross margin expansions available to all of of us. What the old days, chairman and ceo of pvh corp who told us when it was bad and is now telling us when its good. Mad moneys back after the break. Coming up, jim sits down with a cofounder and ceo of workday. You want samsung. That is a huge win for workday versus competitors. Mad money will be right back. Well right now all our new plans come with no data overages. Well finally be in control. And were back. Introducing new at t plans with no data overage charges. If youre struggling to get your head around how best buy could report such amazing numbers, and the chatter from lowes and jc penny about how they see a surge in homerelated buying. Just go to the Conference Call from yesterday. Yesterday, it was the Rodney Dangerfield that got no respect. But towle, is up an astounding 1 16 from last year, largely because theres a real shortage of real estate. Theres not enough supply to meet the demand. The Company Bought back 7 of the shares in just the First Six Months of the fiscal year. Maybe Toll Brothers the underperformance does seem a little ridiculous when you consider the companys astounding 24 Revenue Growth year over year,58 jump in income, they rank number six among fortune magazines survey of mostadd memired companies. You know what i found most compelling . The sheer geographical breadth. Its amazing, given that denver and dallas both caught on as terrific. It was this virtually nationwide increase in housing prices along with the fact that each quarter this month was stronger than the last, culminating with the it first three woks of august snapshot. Thats just this august. We heard about that in the middle of the condition for instance call. That caused the stock to soar nearly 9 . Why are these earnings, revenues and deposit numbers so important . The perception was that the high end of the Housing Market was getting weaker and there was a ceiling as to how high things could depreciate. It would spell a top for so many different businesses, including it seems its going higher. Theres a dearth of inventory out there. As wells fargo ceo always reminds us, housing punches above its weight. When housings strong it leads to all sorts of good things fort economy, lawyers, fees, banks, the desire to spend more money to improve your house to augment what its worth. Which gets us full circle to all the housingrelated numbers. When you see selling stats, you know that we could be looking at a lasting move. The 900 plus ticket strength for lowes, ppg, sherwinwilliams, all those other players with merchandise that fill the home and related aisles of some retailers. We worry that when janet yellen speaks she could use it as a point to raise multiple interest rates. Trends like loosening credit, they arent the type of trends to be decimated by a quartertype rate hike. I think it will turn out to be a buying opportunity. So heres the bottom line. Keep the steady news in line. Remember that these stocks are logical places to go if indeed a september rate hike is back on the table. Lets speak to patrick in missouri. Patrick. Caller quick shout out, a big st. Louis booyah. Absolutely. Why not the. Caller jim, with news that new Single Family home sales have reached their highest in my years, is new Home Construction market bullish . And i know youre a big fan of kb homes. The tussle at the top, weve been backing kb, and the analysts who told us we dead wrong, theyre dead wrong. But i do like toll. And this pull back, i know its a little pull back versus where it was a couple days ago, but i think tolls your play now. And kb is my second play. John in california. John . Caller booyah, jim. We of love you in the sacramento valley. Oh, i love sacramento so much. I love the smell of the honeysuckle on the street that i slept that was in my car. Caller we got together and decided on symex, is that a good play . Thats a gutsy play. I like road bills that are coming. I like what the is states are doing. By the way, i like the queso. Am i ever out there. When janet yellen takes the microphone in jackson hole, i think some of these winners could make excellent buys. We have so much ahead. What could workday do for your portfolio here . Then just yesterday we heard home sales surged as you heard from a caller to the highest level since 07. You know what that means . New mortgages. Im talk being about one of the companies. And rapid fire, tonights special edition of the lightning round. So stick with cramer. Whats better than mad money . How about more mad money . Follow mad money on facebook, twitter and instagram, to go one on one with cramer. Reaction, what other questions do we have . Ah, i always tell people to start with an index fund. Get more with guests and go behind the scenes with the most interactive show on television. If you cant explain in three bullets why youre buying a certain stock, dont buy follow mad money today. Youre here to buy a car. What are we supposed to make of workday, the Software Service company that was once the poster child for highflying computer stocks. For payroll, Financial Management and analytics. It allows companies to save money by laying off payroll people. However, workday got clobbered back in february when linked in tried to drag down the whole group. And we spoke with the ceo neil bushry. Hey, what happened if you bought the stock on that interview . You hav

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