Down. But with this market, Collision Avoidance is king. And when we collide, we bounce back with alacrity, including today with the dow beginning 60 points, s p advancing, nasdaq climbing 0. 88 . A lot of action there. Let me give you some concrete examples of what could have happened but didnt. Lets comb the accidents that never occurred. First we need to parse some of the biggest fears being peddled by pessimistic prognosticators, perhaps designed to sow panic although the panic failed to materialize. For example, how often did we hear in late december that if the dow didnt crack through 20,000, we were doomed for a huge selloff. Sell, sell, sell. I cant believe how loud that inane chatter was. We cracked through the 20,000 ceiling or we get thrown back into some sort of on liblivion. This or this. Here we are. We didnt take it out. We got thrown back from dow 20,000, and the result, dow gets right off the canvas, makes another challenge. The prognostication here, just plain wrong. Second, we heard that there would be big rebalances at the year end. I kept hearing that chatter that required institutions to sell a boat load of stock, we thought when 2017 began, there would be a gigantic wave of taxrelated selling. I know i thought that could be. We got a little selloff last week, but it wasnt monumental. The rebalancing story is not working out. I think it was bogus. How about the heavy taxrelated selling . I got to admit it hasnt happened yet. Not today. Not yesterday. Maybe thats the end of the story. Theres also been an astonishing amount of talk about how were seeing peak psycycles in everytg from homes to planes to cars. Peak cycles is bear talk for its the end, okay . Its like the jim morrison song, the end, the end. So far, despite the dramatic spike in Interest Rates, we havent heard about a sbound from any home builders. If anything, theres the opposite. Theres a housing shortage. I keep reading these scare articles about the collapse of highend apartment values. Come on, housing is a multi trill dollar market, and yet the med media babbles on. Were seeing a resurgence in home building. Its finally back to where it was before the great recession. So much for peak housing in a world of higher rates. How about peak planes . This has been one of the biggest can ards out there. Its true this incredibly important business is being stung with a surfeit of wide body airplanes. There are queues stretching for years to get those planes because as the developing world becomes wealthier, more and more people can afford air travel. Its a secular trend, not a cyclical one. Today we learned that the biggest scare story of all, peak autos, was just plain wrong. We got flabbergastingly positive numbers out of g. M. Today, plus 10 . Analysts were looking for plus 4. Every single auto Company Reported better than expected numbers, in some cases like ford, the incredibly lucrative f series trucks led the way. Not only do the car sales more the stock of g. M. And ford, but theyre fabulous for car max, for auto nation, for auto parts companies, endless down grades by nonbelievers, and theyre going to be wrong. Its even great news for much loved nvidia and call cough, which is buying nxp semi. I think auto sales are strong because you noeed a car to get o your job and jobs are plentiful. The conclusion of the election busted open the floodgates of buyers. December was just plane fantastic, off the charts. Even tesla stock rallied despite the fact that it missed its forecast, helped no doubt by a better backdrop and an Analyst Meeting where elon musk worked as usual magic. Short sellers, its too hard. What else . Today we got minutes from the most recent fed meeting, and they indicate that rates are going to go up this year in order to keep the economy from overheating. The market paused, and then it rallied. Six months ago, what would that same statement have done . Well, i can tell you it would have destroyed this market. The house of pain. Housing stocks, auto stocks would have been horrible. Today theyre among the best. Talk about commission avoidance or maybe accident forgiveness. A little more than a month ago, we were aghast that the president elect was tweeting a tax on individual Companies Like one for moving jobs to mexico. He started with an attack on united technologies, caused the company to blink, lay off 1,000 workers in indiana instead of 2,000 that would have been let go if the company had been following through its original plan to move the whole carrier airconditioning hvac mathry coo mexico. Trumps next target, boeing, which he attacked in a tweet about outrageous air force one cost overruns. The stock was at 154. Now its at 158. Buying opportunity. Then the president elect hit Lockheed Martin over the head with a two by four over the f35 overruns. Dont look now, but the stock is now more than one point above where it was trading after that tweet appeared. Buying opportunity. What a chance you got to buy g. M. Yesterday after h off still one more trump tweet, that one about the Company Making cars in mexico and mississippiishippingm here. Sure, we got good superseding news today, but lets face it. When was the last time you made almost three bucks from g. M. In almost 24 hours. G. M. Jumped more than 5 today. Maybe one of those better be lucky than good buying opportunities. We know that deregulation is a major part of trumps economic agenda but lots of skeptics have asked me repeatedly whats heck does deregulation mean . How can the president roll back regulations . Well, buy executive appointments, thats how. The truth is the president and his subordinates have a ton of discretion in terms of how laws are enforced. Take greg pruitt, the Oklahoma Attorney general. If he gets approved, he could roll back years of regulations. Love it or hate it, hell have a field day. It will be a field day for the utilities. A field day for the fossil fuel companies, for the refiners, for the pipeline operators, for the builders, although probably not so great for the environment. Not a trump stock. Or look at trumps proposed labor secretary. Hes the ceo of fast food company. We had him on the show. Smart guy. You think hes going to represent the interests of labor, which is historically what that department does . Only theoretically. He opposed raising the minimum wage because he thinks it destroys jobs. How about this new appointment we heard today, jay clayton. Hes a Corporate Finance lawyer from s and c. You think hell be creating a bunch of new regulations . Think again. This is a job thats going to prosecutors or regulators of late. Clayton a deal maker. Hes going to look for ways to help business, not hurt it. Hey, look, lets get right down to it. Trump picked rex tillerson, the ceo of exxon mobil to run the state department for heavens sake. You think he wont promote the interests of business, especialep especially Oil Companies. I say the stocks favorite form of government is one that is heavily influenced by corporations, has a lot of corporate mind share. Remember, this is mad money, its not mad politics. Then theres the recovery of stocks that have been blasted for not being cyclical enough to participate in the trump rally. We are now beginning to see large buyers of salesforce. Com. Were seeing large buyers of facebook. Were even seeing buyers of red hat which just missed the quarter. At the same time, some stocks that have been left for dead are rebounding, like the rails. Have you seen the breakouts in disney . How about deere . Theyve been challenged. Now, im not an ostrich. I saw the incredibly hideous poor numbers. I didnt want to look because it was a real collision. Kohls and macys. Just this evening, its hammering the stock severely. All the bricks and more star stocks except for the ones that take advantage of these guys have excess inventory are getting hammered. Ive said over and over its an Amazon Holiday season. Thats a secular negative for these guys. Its a collision that cant be avoided. Bottom line, this rally is all about accidents that didnt happen and recoveries that happened like lightning. Thats been the fuel behind the move. It can run out for a couple days for sure. But when that occurs, its a chance to buy, not a reason to sell. Alison in maryland, alison. Caller booyah, jim. Booyah. Caller so i have thousands of shares in class a underarmour stock and im not that far off from retirement. Youve been a big fan of under armour, but its fallen from grease rece grace recently. Are you still a believer. I think kevin plank is a competitor. Im sorry to interrupt, alison. But kevin plank is a competitor, and theres no way that guy is going to remain on the convas long. I think that under armour is not a sell. I think it down here is a buy because i trust kefvin plank. Im been right to side step the decline, but that doesnt mean it isnt 9 right time to get back in. Robert in california, robert. Caller booyah, jim. Oh, we got a familial booyah. I always like those for the new yaerd. Happy new year. Whats up . Caller im sitting here with my 5yearold grandson, jack, and he is wanting to invest his Piggy Bank Money in disney. As a first time investor, and we would like could your take on it. I think the kids got horse sense. This is a good company with a good stock. Remember when we were fretting every minute . Oh, espn. Hey, you know, everybody in the world wants to work there. I have to tell you i think bob iger has flexibility. Hes got optionality, all those fancy words which says, hey, disneys got it in cards. This is about accidents that didnt happen and rapid recovery. Any pull back, im calling it a chance to buy, not one to sell. On mad money tonight, the trump bump may have given you something to celebrate in 2016. But could the new year bring volatility . Then something bizarre took place in the averages yesterday. Energy stocks and oil prices consciously uncoupled. Ill tell you what it means for your investments in the space. And a company that can help you stick to your new years resolution that Just Announced a big integration deal with none other than google. Dont miss my exclusive with the ceo of mind body. Well get some mindfulness and some finance. Stick with cramer. Announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. T ha os t tadirectv now. Stream all your entertainment anywhere anytime can we lose the all. Theres no cbs and we dont have a ton of sports. Anywhere, any. Lets lose the anywhere, anytime too. You cant download onthego, theres no dvr, yada yada yada. Stream some stuff somewhere sometimes you totally nailed that buddy. Simple. Dont let directv now limit your entertainment. Only xfinity gives you more to stream to any screen. Have we become too complacent, or could this market have more room to run . Given the incredible rally weve seen since the election, i think its worth pondering whether there might be any warning signs that we need to take more seriously. Dont misunderstand, im not trying to be a debbie downer, but after a big move, it often pays to hold your emotions in check, take a less emotional look at the situation. One thing i always like to keep an eye on is the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of bullish and bearish newsletter writers. In the latest report, the number of bulls has moved up to 60. 2 , only 18. 4 bears, another 21. 4 looking for a correction. Why is it a problem to have so many bulls . Think about it. Because when everybody is bullish, it means theres really no one left to come in and buy. A healthy rally needs plenty of bears who can be persuaded to change their minds. Thats how this rally started. Otherwise it runs out of fuel. Plus historically when the bullish percentage goes above 60 , it often means were getting complacent and nearing a top. Last time it happened, 2014. Right before we fell off a cliff. Now, when were talking about com placency, i always like to watch the sebo volatility endix. Thats why tonight were going off the charts with the help of mark sebastian, the founder of option pit. Com. Hes also my colleague at real money. Com. If order to get a read on the overall level of complacency out there. Sebastian is our go to expert on the volatility index. Hes been right as rain, and thats the vix for short. It measures the level of volatility that traders are expecting in the near future. Its often viewed as a proxy for the amount of fear in the marketplace. Needless to say right now the level of perceived fear, pretty darn low, right . I mean a picture tells a thousand words. Vix currently trading around 12. Is it too low . Heres the thing. By itself the volatility index, it doesnt really tell us much. The fact that its around 12 means things are calm. But do you really you dont need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows, right . When you look at the volatility index in the right context, it can tell you a lot. Typically sebastian points out the vix tends to move in the opposite direction from the stock market. When the s p 500 is rising, the vix should be falling. And when the s p 500 is declining, the vix should be advancing. Those are the signs of a straightforward, rational market. Where are they now . Take a look at this pair of daily charts, the s p 500 and the volatility index. This is going back to the election. According to sebastian, the vix behavior was very normal in the wake of trumps surprise victory as the s p went off to the races, the vix dropped lower and lower. Remember on wall street many people refer to this index as the fear gauge, and its investigators embrace the president s agenda, fear dissipated. However, something changed last week. You can see that here in another version of the same pair of charts that something changed. As we approached the end of the year, the averages pulled back from their highs, okay . Spf pulled back from their highs, and with the s p getting clocked. A lot of you were on vacations. The worrisome thing here is the behavior of the volatility index. Sebastian notes while the market was down about 4 , the vix spiked more than 20 , going into the lock weekend, during a period that usually tends to be pretty quiet. Thats a big increase in the fear gauge for such a small decline in the averages. This outsized move in the vix raised a yellow flag for sebastian. It had him wondering why the volatility index would spike so heavily going into a slow period. Could there be something going on yaeth that we need to starting considered about . For a moment i know it felt like we should be chewing our fingernails if not tearing our hair out. But take a look at this. Again, its the same pair of charts but now were looking at what happened yesterday. We came in, and the market popped with the vix falling again. Its something that continued today. You know what . Back to normal. Why does sebastian make of all this . Putting it all together, he thinks the spike in the vix last week was a false fear symbol. Rather than being a genuine sign that we should be more worried, not too com placent, it was more of a factor of however, that doesnt mean we should totally dismiss last weeks alarming readings. What would make sebastian truly worried . Last week the vix made a dramatic move, but that move was in the right direction. It went up when the s p 500 went down, just like its supposed to. The time to be concerned is when the vix moves in the wrong direction, when it breaks the usual correlation. For example if the s p hits a new high but the vixz fails to hit a new low, that could be a sign the rally is running out of gas. Its not just the action in the vix that makes him feel confident. I want you to take a look at this next. A little more rigorous. Next pair of charts. This is the volatility index on top and the vivex on the bottom. Now, we have talked about this before, but ill go over it again so you know. Just as the regular vix measures the volatility of the stock market, the vvix measures the volatility of the vix. Maybe you took calculus in school. Its similar to taking the derivative of the vix. The vvix measures the acceleration. For sebastian, the action in the vvix confirms what hes seeing with the regular volatility index. The vvix has been heading down since the election and is currently near the lows it made last month. At the moment, its found a lower band around 80, okay . Typically when the vvix gets this low, the market is due for a small pullback, but sebastian says its important that the vvix moves first because its the leading indicator. So if you see this index rallying, you might want to be prepared for stocks to go lower. Still, in the past you know there have been periods of time where this index, this vvix traded consistently in the 70s and even in the 60s. And if were entering a newfound era of good feelings for the stock market, then maybe it could be headed there. The lower this thing goes the better because its like a more sensitive version of the fear gauge. Put it all together, and while the latest Investors Intelligence survey is definitely disconcerting, sebastians read on the vix is a lot more encouraging. Based on his analysis, he thinks its unlikely well see a major reversal without a meaningful negative catalyst. All else equal, sebastian believes the s p will continue to head higher because of his vix work. Heres the bottom line. You may suspect were becoming complacent here, but the charts as interpreted by mark kbas chan, who i said has been dead right, suggests this market probably has more room to run. Much more mad money ahead, including my take on energy in a new administration. There was a bizarre move in the market yesterday that could have a major impact on your money. Then a Company Bringing wellness straight to your fingertips. Ill tell you how mindbody could impact both your fitness and your finance. And 16 days until the president ial inauguration. What could the new administration mean for a domestic utility play . Im sitting down with the ceo to find out. So stick with cramer. Ote. 5,onot i dont know if you caught it, but something very bizarre happened yesterday. Something we didnt see in all of 2016. The price of crude went down, but the oil and gas stocks went up. Thats right. We came into work with oil up a buck and change, threatened to bust through the 55 ceiling thats contained oil during the entire updraft from last years bottom. The rally in crude was central to the strong opening in the overall market yesterday. But then something happened that wed almost forgotten about thanks to all of the hoopla surrounding trumps election. Oil reversed and took the s p 500 down with it. When you surveyed the stock universe, the oils actually gave up very little of their gains, less than every other group i follow save the drug stocks. Today