Enough, dow dipping 22 points, s p rising 0. 04 , nasdaq advancing 0. 24 , lets face some facts here. We are fraught with expectations that may or may not pan out on the side of the bulls this week. First lets just deal with what i call the setup. For weeks now weve seen group after group move up. You know that. The health cares, the barnks, te insurers, the Home Builders, the industrials, the techies, so much others. Look, it has been quite a bull market. But last week, last week stalled out, and there are myriad stocks that look like theyre topping or cant get much further without some sort of good news happening, which is certainly possible. But worse, i see contradictions. I see historic moves that are based on false preconceptions 0er an atmosphere that maybe lets call it a tad too bullish for my taste. Lets start with my biggest worry, the feds meeting on wednesday. Now, last week i said bring them on. Bring on the rate hikes. We need them. We need the fed to stop talking about gradual rate hikes and instead focus on whats necessary. Simply dropping the language of caution about its moves and instead admit that the recovery is now moving into its regular cyclical phase, which means the fed needs to start worrying as much about inflation as deflation. Heres the issue, though. There are always people who are going to get this wrong. There are always people who are going to come on tv, not on this show, thank heavens, and just give you a scare tactic. Writhe now we think that a rate hike is a good thing, and you know i think it is. Now, its going to be terrific for the banks. Theyre the most Leadership Group if were going to go higher. Nothings changed on that front. Its still the case. We need a minimum of three rate hikes if the banks are going to continue climbing because i think two rate increases in addition to the one in december already baked in. But im ready myself for the kind of uninformed backlash that we havent seen or heard from since 2006. That uninformed backlash that says if rates go higher, were going to have a real earnings slow down and stocks are way too high for that market to hajdle. That negative chatter wont necessarily be manifested that broadly, that openly, that baldly. It will be case by case. Let me give you an example whats going to happen. The housing stocks have been among the hottest sectors in the market. Horton, kb homes, lynn nar, toll. Theyve acted fabulously. But they folks do not do better in a higher rate situation. They do worse. However, the analysts have all been silent during this run so far. I could see a scenario where someone comes out and down grading the Home Builders and frets over what prolonged rate hikes will do to them even though theres no such thing necessarily as the declaration of prolonged rate hikes. I think that call against the Home Builders will resonate throughout the market and stocks could get hammeredle. Second weve seen packaged goods stocks soar. If you go back in time before that bid, youll see a group of stocks truly slumping both because of weak earnings and because Rising Interest Rates make their dividends last attractive. If you can get 3 risk free, a 3 yield risk free, why would you risk getting a 3 yield from a stock that could easily go down 10 in a couple of days. Yet thats exactly what might happen to these stocks because i dont think kraft heinz is going to strike as easily as it did against eun lever. Why . Because thaeft month yeun lever bid, warren buffett, who is affiliated with kraft heinz told cnbc he wouldnt go along with anything hostile, and almost all the companies with stocks that spiked in this period as part of the pin action from the uni lever bid, they dont want to be akwierd. That means these stocks are all up on the hopes of something that might not happen, a kraft heinz takeover attempt. I say those stocks become vulnerable. Lets compound things. Many of these packaged Goods Companies do a huge a of business overseas. Their estimates will have to come down in the dollar spikes on a rate hike as many people think will happen. So there could be a second day move against this very visible group when the analysts cut their numbers off the dollar. Third, im concerned about some of the longer dated assets in this situation. Whats a longer dated asset . Biotech. Lets take the biotech stocks. They dont trade on whats currently happening. They trade on the future. Not on the numbers but they trade on the pipelines. However, if you believe that inflation is coming back as there will be people on air saying even though i dont think it is, youll pay less for that pipeline because the future earnings wont be worth as much. If the fed signals that its worried about inflation, youll see a selloff in the biotechs. Ive been through a bunch of fed tightening cycles in my career and this is what always happens to these kind of longer dated asset stocks, the ones that have a longterm payoff. It happened all the other times. It will probably happen now, right . My fourth concern is washington. Theres now no doubt in my mind that repealing and replacing the Affordable Care act has taken over the debate. Its going to be front and center seemingly forever. And thats likely to block the rest of president trumps agenda, especially if it Takes Congress a long time to come up with a palatable replacement that everybody can agree on. Thats unfortunate for anyone who was hoping for near term tax relief. I dont think were going to see results anytime soon. I think the summer is too soon. The fall . Im hopeful now for maybe 2017. However, if you look at the infrastructure stocks, theyre trading as if were about to see a gigantic and imminent increase in federal spending on bridges, tunnels, roads, and airports. Those stocks have definitely run too much if theres no shortterm, no infrastructure bill. I dont think the money flows until 2019. Then theres repatriation. Some of the stocks with the most money overseas are trading as if that money is going to flow back at low rates within the next few months. Against, i sense disappointment about to occur. Fifth, theres this border tax issue. I know its boring but give me a second here. Its been my experience, not unlike with health care, that the lobbyists and the corporate interests dont take things lying down. Given the precarious state of retail in america, this kind of border tax will be a total anath ma. I believe the retailers will make a compelling case that it would force them to lay off hundreds of thousands of people, and those retail job losses will far overwhelm whatever jobs might flow back from manufacturing, from that tax incentivizing domestic building. See, i remember when nafta was passed. It was viewed as a way for walmart to clothe the company with cheep apparel, so it was impossible to believe that those industries will come back here. But what will happen with a tax on imports . Well, ill give it tao. The walmarts of the world will have to pay more for their goods, but many of marginal retailers wont be able to cape pace and will fall by the wayside. So most likely, yeah, not make it. Thats what im saying. Its a real risk. You see these retailers. I dont care if this thing is phased in or not. The fact is if you look at those Retail Stocks, you can tell theyre signaling tremendous losses and massive layoffs if Congress Passes a border tax. I think its a very real possibility although one upside is that it makes the border tax a lot less likely. Finally were going to get an Oil Inventory number the morning of the fed meeting. I think it will show no letup in this crude oil bill. That could dry it up to the 44 level that we talked about last week and that two will be poorly perceived by the market, as a slow down. Heres the bottom line. If we get an aggressive stance from the fed, no economic help from washington, coupled with more talk about a border tax and an inventory buildup in oil, it just could be too hard to run that gauntlet without some damage to stocks occurring. Thats why we simply need to get past this week. Sure its possible we could come out on the other side almost unscathed, but be aware that we need to overcome all these obstacles for that to happen. Steve in california, steve. Caller booyah from redondo beach. Oh, man, nice. Whats up . Caller recently an analyst downgraded goldman sachs, and i know that theres likely going to be a rate hike here. Im not sure how that rate hike will affect the stock. I own a small amount, and i want to know what you think i should do with it. Rate hike really good for goldman. I dont like the boeing down grade today by morgan stanley. I thought the gold man down grade, look, the thing has had a monster run. Why not declare victory if youre an analyst . Its very hard for me, though, to say, hey, listen, get out of goldman at 250 248, and then get back in at 237. When we started this show 12 years ago, i might have suggested that, but ive learned a lot since we started the show. 237 is the same thing as 248 for a long termer. So i think goldmans good, but youve got to have a long term perspecti perspective. Alex in california, alex. Caller booyah, dr. Cramer. This is alex from west los angeles. Fantastic. Better weather there than here. I can assure. Caller 80 degrees and sunny. I hope the double tree heat is working. Caller thanks for taking my call. I had a question about a stock tren azar. It reported on thursday. It lost 22 of its market cap the next day and all the other opticals are down on friday and today. So what happened to this optical super cycle . Alex, i didnt buy into this super cycle. A lot of people did. There was a chinese order problem. Whenever theres a super cycle, we got to run for the hills. So, yeah, i agree. I didnt like that Conference Call at all and i know people are trying to make a stand, saying dont worry about finisar fnlts im worried about it. I didnt like that quarter, and i think im not going to like lets just say the group got overheated. Lets go to terry in wisconsin, please, terry. Caller hi, jim. What are your thoughts about ak sthooel has a longer term investment. Im not thrill with the company but i am thrilled with the government has woken up to the fact the chinese and koreans have dumped a lot of steel. I use bruce kamich at realmoney. Com, it looks like the chart is kind of bottoming. That said, remember youre not buying the highest quality. Whats the highest quality . New corp. There are just too many expectations that can go with or against the bull. Weve got to get through this week and hopefully get through not too scathed, therefore almost unscathed . On mad money tonight, brick and mortar retailers have been having a tough time lately so why on hearth did j. Jill just came public . I was looking at their stores. I got some clothes here. You can make a judgment. Let wile see what the prospects are. Im pointing out two winners that have figured out how to tlievg in a crumbling mall landscape. And trump has talked a lot about infrastructure spend, so who could it mean for a company like u. S. Concrete . Im asking the ceo. So stick with cramer. Announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. The command performance sales event is here. Experience exceptional offers on our most refined models ever. Get up to 2,500 customer cash on select 2017 models for these terms. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. On a perfect car, then smash it into a tree. Your Insurance Company raises your rates. Maybe you shouldve done more research on them. For drivers with accident forgiveness, Liberty Mutual wont raise your rates due to your first accident. And if you do have an accident, our claims centers are available to assist you 24 7. Call for a free quote today. Liberty stands with you™. Liberty mutual insurance. Tonight i want to talk to you about outliers, about retailers that have somehow managed to defy the stunning secular decline of their industry. This is a dark, dark moment to be in bricks and mortar. The competition from amazon and other online vendors has never been more fierce. The rise of stay at home economy where you can pretty much watch or do anything from the comfort of your couch means that people have even less incentive to get in their cars and drive to a store and mall traffic is falling so precipitously that perhaps the whole ed i fifice i the verge of crumbling. Yet against this horrific backdrop, weve seen a handful of winners. More on that later. And perhaps more surprising, last week no one talked about this. It drove me crazy. No one. We had a retail ipo, and the deal was not, i repeat not a total bust. At a time when so many retailers are wailing about store closures or anemic traffic, j. Jill, the womens apparel chain, decided to come public. Although it was president a sml it went a lot better than you might have expected, especially since it traded back abrof that 13 level today. Could be a sleeper here. Made us interested. So first question. What are the people at j. Jill thinking that they decided to come public at a moment when retail has become one of the most hated groups in this market . Does this Company Simply have a real bad sense of time something are they totally clueless or maybe, just maybe, could they personally have some reason do be extremely confident . Lets dig deeper here since nobody else is because thriving retailers are et much an endangered species right now and we owe it to ourselves to see if j. Jill might be in that category. First let me give you some background. Its a womens apparel brand focused on what i call the alternative young demographic, the 45 to 65 age range. The company has 275 Stores Across 43 states, split about evenly between Lifestyle Centers and shopping malls. You probably want to see what their merchandise is like. I happened to have gone to the store and gotten some of it. See . This is that alternative demo thing im talking about. Anyway, j. Jill got its start as a catalog company, but in recent years theyve expanded into an omnichannel player with about 42 of their sales coming from the web or catalogs and the other 58 from the traditional bricks and mortar locations. Theres one other big thing here that sets jill apart. Its kind of proprietary database that tells them exactly whos buying what. The company then uses that information to make merchandising and marketing decisions. Basically theyre kind of like the nsa except they sell stretch pants. Now, as i was reading through the ipo prospectus while you were doing something more interesting, i happened upon some interesting information. Its not just that jill has an omnichannel business these days. Everybody in retail does omnichannel. Im looking at you, target. Their online sales are cannibalizing the kbriks and mortar sales and thats generally bad for the numbers because people rarely mike impulse purchases online, but it seems j. Jill is different. This company uses its stores to bring in new customers. Then they try to get those customers to buy things through as many channels as possible. Heres the thing. Unlike the rest of retail where your typical omnichannel customer is worth a lot less than a bricks and mortar customer, at j. Jill, the omnichannel customers buy things nearly three times as often and spend nearly three times as much versus their Single Channel customers. In other words, it seems like jills Ecommerce Division is actually additive to the numbers where so many other retailers seem to be in kind of a vortex donner party situation. Theyre starving in the wilderness and theyve turned cannibal with their Online Business feasting on the flesh of their Offline Business in order to stay alive. So far at least j. Jill is not a cannibal. These days, thats a hugely complimentary thing in the retail industry. Beyond that, the companys got a pretty affluent customer base, mp the average shopper has an annual Household Income of 150,000 osh more. These customers are loyal. In 2015, roughly 70 of the companys sales came from people who had been shopping at jill for at least five years. They love the stuff. Still, this is an awful environment for retail, so how does this company expect to be able to grow its business given all the headwinds . First of all, jill has strong numbers, surprisingly strong numbers. Their full year numbers for 2016 arent available yet, but in their offering dunlt, the company indicated that their sales likely increased by 13. 7 last year with 11 plus samestore sales growth. 11 . Doubledigit. And a 63 increase in net income. Really only ulta is around that level. Thats on top of an already strong 2015 where they grew at a 16. 4 clip and a 39 clip respectively. Most retailers would kill for those numbers. Other companies are struggling to put up positive samestore sales at all. Jill is giving you doubledigitity. On top of that, the company has a proven track record of using their Marketing Spending to draw in new customers. Remember that database . This helps jirlt target their advertising, which is how a 16 increase in Marketing Investment in 2015 translated tiny a 15 rise in the number of new customers. Plus jill believes they can get direct sales, meaning catalogs and ecommerce from 42 of the total to 50 over the next few years and again, omnichannel customers for these guys are worth more to this company than bricks and mortar. Highly unusual. Thats wide theyre improving the website to personalize the shopping experience. One thing has got me a little nervous. J. Jill wants to expand its store base. They currently have 275 locations. They believe they can add another 100 on top of that. I hope thats not to please wall street. The plan is to open 10 to 15 new stores this year. We know given so many other retailers are closing so many other locations, its kind of stunning j. Jill wants to expand. Either this company is doing very well, or maybe this part of the strategy is a little foolhardy. In addition, you have to recognize that this is a private equity backed ipo, and in general those tend to have a spotty track record at best. In 2015, j. Jill was acquired by tower brook. And even after last weeks ipo, the tower brook guys control more than half of the company, meaning theyre in charge. Plus all the proceeds of the deal, they went to tower brook. These guys didnt see a penny. Plus while we dont