Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20170814 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Mad Money August 14, 2017

Is the selloff over already . Was that it . Point blank, the answer is no on a day when the dow gained 135 points, s p surged, nasdaq surged you need to know that the market sadly doesnt work like that. The month of august is notorious for declines like the one we had last week. Much of september also in other words, its selloff season this is when we get hit with short, sharp, fearinducing pullbacks. Happens almost every year. I need you to get ready for it remember last week we had Terrible Bank stock performances, and a famous huge funds manager says theres far more risk in this market than they believe that combination caused a serious run for the exit hey, lets call it as we see it. You know what it was it was a wholesale panic and with all panics, it created bargains buy buy buy but were you ready for them this kind of activity is why i recommend raising cash after big runs like we had this year why . Because when we do pull back, and im telling you its going to happen again, you need to be prepared to pick at the stocks on your Shopping List. As we do with my charitable trust. We pounced on stocks like mr. Nvidia and Activision Blizzard we were just waiting for weakness and we got it so we could do some buying it why was dip buying so effective . Despite the fact that everyone was freaking out, we have low inflation, low Interest Rates, good earnings and a weak dollar. Low inflation means that the earnings in the out years, 2018, 2019, 2020 are worth more. Thats essential if were going to own Growth Stocks low inflation is such a gift low Interest Rates remain a positive thing for business, think of the robust market in housing. Meanwhile, the earnings picture remains very strong. We just came through the bulk of reporting season, and there were few down side surprises. Other than oil and some retailers, most Company Managements raised estimates even the very controversial nvidia, which took a drumming on friday, actually did report amazing numbers. There was one business line in transition that kept the company from blowing away the estimates more than it did finally, the weak dollar is nothing short of miraculous. Say what you want about President Trump, and a lot of people do, this weak dollar may be the story of 2017 in stocks u. S. Companies are seeing their overseas companies transform into much higher numbers, thanks to the dollars weakness its possible that the weak dollar they still be in its early beginning, especially with japan. And europe growing at a level that means low Interest Rates are unsustainable. All of that sounds good. So why do i have reservations about saying game on, get long for starters, congress is not in session. Given how at odds congress, both sides of the aisle, seem to be with the president , we have a real opportunity to move up here but when Congress Comes back in september, well be back to the same set of disappointments. You know theyll have trouble raising the debt ceiling, more calls to repeal obamacare, more heartbreak about tax reform. Second reason to be cautious, theres an undercurrent of worry in tact that was obscured by todays rally. The undercurrent is that the semi conductors, the autos, the semis that go into personal computers and cell phones are just one disappointment away from blowing up. The action in micron is instruction here heres a company, the stock was up good, blowing away estimate force two quarters micron makes commodities, flash memory chips Western Digital wasnt able to crush the estimates like last time low pricedtoearnings ratio, yes, thats dangerous, because it means that those estimates will prove to be way too high. Today, we got a short rally. Third, Interest Rates went higher today, and thats a continued given this strong employment we have but for the most part, it hasnt and weve been stalled here. When rates go up, we get a good move in the bank stocks. We need rates to go high enough to attract people, but not so high people swap into bonds. Without the banks, we cannot mount a sustained advance. Today, the transports rallied. And that group, whether it be railroads or airlines, thats been trashed endlessly sure, perhaps the transports bottomed today they were all red hot, and i dont believe they deserved what theyve been receiving recently. Fifth and finally, a slew of retailers reported this week, everything from home depot and gap to walmart and target. This group demonstrated some pretty pal try performance last week when macys and jcpenney reported decent earnings and saw their stocks get killed. Does that mean you should raise cash now if the market is bouncing i recommended that you do some selling of your worst stocks that have managed to move up as part of the broader rally. We cleaned out a nagging position that went higher. What a dog believe me, there was plenty of weakness underneath today, including the drug stocks. Not just because of the spat between President Trump and ken frazier, the ceo of merck, who resigned from trumps Business Council to protest the president s somewhat baffling response to the charlottesville attack i saw weakness in oil again. They are horrendous. Some of the commodity stocks thanks to subpar chinese stocks this weekend so in the dog days of summer, we can get hit with lightning speed selloffs, which thursday was typical, not atypical. Unless you have some cash and stock ideas and some levels where that money can be put to work, youll miss the next buying opportunity when it comes forward. Why dont we speak to glenn, who is in michigan glenn. Caller mr. Cramer, im calling in regards to vf corporati corporation. Am i diversified im concerned about Vf Corporation at the current time. No, dont be. Once again, this acquisition today was really good. Thats the vf corps i know and love they bring companies in. They bring it in and then they make it better can we go to steve in california, please, steve . Caller booyah from rodondo beach. So annie and i were watching you show in december and you were bullish on paychecks were down 10 on it now the last time you had muchi on, you were more bullish than he. We dont know what to do i was going over this, this weekend. We were astonished how bad the stock is at. I have to believe its because people think the fed is not going to raise rates that much its down 10 . I think the stock is inexpensive. Im not backing away from it the dog days are over. Not so fast. They could happen any time and you need to have some cash and a Shopping List at hand. On mad money tonight, why the most important advice should come from you. Yes, you ill explain then im diving into the top cruise line stocks to see which is best equipped to help you sail higher. Im eyeing the fundamentals. So stick with cramer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer at twitter have a question . Tweet cramer at madtweets send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc miss something head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. At ally, we offer low rates on home loans. But if thats not enough, we offer our price match guarantee too. And if thats not enough. We should move. Our home team will help you every step of the way. Still not enough . Its smaller than id like. Well help you finance your dream home. Its perfect. Oh, was this built on an ancient Burial Ground . Okay. Then well have her cleanse you house of evil spirits. Well do anything, spiritual chatter seriously anything to help you get your home. Ally. Do it right. At the lexus golden uncoopportunity sales event before it ends. Choose from the is turbo, es 350 or nx turbo for 299 a month for 36 months if you lease now. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Looking for a hotel that fits. Whoooo. Your budget . Tripadvisor now searches over. 200 sites to find you the. Hotel you want at the lowest price. Grazi, gino find a price that fits. Tripadvisor. Thats why at comcast were continuing to make4 7. Our services more reliable than ever. Like technology that can update itself. An advanced fibernetwork infrustructure. New, more Reliable Equipment for your home. And a new culture built around customer service. It all adds up to our most Reliable Network ever. One that keeps you connected to what matters most. Last thursday afternoon, this market took one of its worst dives of the year. The cause . It was a fabulous interview by scott wapner with houward march a brilliant investor someone who has shown astonishing wisdom in high yield bonds, and you stp and listen to what he has to say about any markets. When i listened, i gulped. Without saying hes outright bearish on equities, he made it clear that youre a fool to own stocks and youre taking too much risk and investors seem unaware. The market has cascading, as he talked, and who can blame anyone for selling when they listen to him . I have to admit that i was fuming at the ease with which this caution and negativity rolled off his tongue, and put in a dozen quick twitter entries how you need to be true to yourself, not just piggyback off someone who already made their fortune. This morning, though, when i saw the futures up so high, i decided wait a second, maybe i wasnt fired up enough things have only gained steam since then so i did something that some would find unfair, maybe selective and arbitrary. I googled the terms, howard marks, bearish, and 2010 what did i discover . Again, without saying he was outright bearish like he was the other day, he expressed negativity about stocks similar to thursdays callout. In an interview in may of 2010, marks traced out a role where investors were willing to take on too much rifbsk and had grown complacent according to him, they didnt know the easy money had already been made in stocks and bonds. First, and im quoting, the economy is reliant on government stimulus programs. What happens when theyre withdrawn . Two, the economy is reliant on artificially low Interest Rates. What happens when they rise to normal levels . Three, there are a lot of problems to be worked out in commercial real estate and number four, the main source of energy in the economy over the prior 20 years has been the consumer who spent more than he made where does growth come from in the next five years if the consumer doesnt going back to doing so he said it was time to reassess the market because those who took risks made the big money the year before. Marks said that irrational equinity is back grant it, you can say im quoting him shreselectively, a did make it clear last week that you need to make up your own mind but come on, what do you say to that litany of horribles when it comes out on tv . It says get out now and people did, in droves but where would you have gotten out if you listened to marks in 2010 how about dow, 10,608 and s p 5001,110 hmm, the dow just closed at over 21,000 heres where my thinking comes in, with the exception of commercial real estate worries, these were part of the conventional typical wisdom. Youve heard them time and time again. Were hearing them now seven years later and they kept you out of some of the greatest gains ive ever seen commercial real estate is an exception. The problem has never materialized at all. Bank stocks were fabulous buys back then. Most have doubled. As for the consumer, turned out that she never went back to her old ways Household Debt has dropped dramatically to the lowest level in ages. Consumer spending has soared i guess that wasnt supposed to happen wasnt in the marks playbook all the worries about low Interest Rates are still with us the opportunities were a myriad. The fed has been raising rates for more than a year and the market has gone higher theyve produced a multiyear buying opportunity im not just talking about f. A. N. G. My point, marks could be both very right and very wrong. The selloff last thursday is looking like it was a good buying opportunity more important, may 2010 was a fantastic opportunity to buy and thats no questioning that it happened. Its what i call empirical thats why i said listen to yourself, not to others. Im not picking on marks hes real smart, but im asking that you put more mafaith in yourself than someone who may not have the same priorities t you. Its fine for marks to be risk avert, hes already a billionaire. But for the rest of us, i think youre better off listening to yourself much more mad money ahead, including my take on the major cruise players which company can keep making waves on wall street and a pretty nasty piece of research is the criticism warranted im going to break it down and with more consumers focused on experiences instead of things, im eyeing a private Company Looking at making the going to the movies magical again. So stick with cramer whats going on here . Um. Im babysitting. Thatll be 50 bucks. You said 30 dollars. Yeah, well it was 30 before my fees, like the pizzaordering fee and the dogsitting fee. And the rummage through your closet fee. Are those my heels . Yeah yeah, were the same size. In shoes. With tmobile taxes and fees are already included, so you get four lines of unlimited for just 40 bucks each. And now get zero down on the hottest smart phone brands like samsung galaxy. More reasons why tmobile is americas best unlimited network. [brother] any last words . [boy] karma, danny. Karma [vo] progress is seizing the moment. Your summer moment awaits you, now that the summer of audi sales event is here. Audi will cover your first months lease payment on select models during the summer of audi sales event. On a day where the stock market came roaring back, i think its worth focusing on a group thats managed to defy the odds often in spite of many spep ticks who didnt believe the move could continue. Im talking about the incredibly bullish run of the cruise stocks were thinking here about Royal Caribbean, carnival and norwegian cruise lines theyre on fire, up 46 , 31 , and 35 respectively however, while these stocks have roared higher, they havent always enjoyed tons of support from the very skeptical analysts community. Back in the beginning of the year, and i dont mean to pick on one firm, Goldman Sachs downgraded Royal Caribbean to an outright sell. Keeping lukewarm neutral rating on carnival and norwegian. That is until two weeks ago when goldman upgraded them to neutral and raised the forecast for the entire group regular viewers know im a huge fan of the cruise lines, but it doesnt hurt when the bears start to surrender so what did these analysts miss about the group . And can the cruise stocks continue to rally after this incredible run let me give you some background. When youre on a cruise line, the biggest cost is fuel so when the price of oil cratered in 2014, you would have thought this whole group would roar if you remember in the fall of 2014, we had the ebola scare, where someone who had been exposed to the disease was on a cruise ship and the whole group got slammed. When we realized it was less widespread than we thought and the outbreak was contained, at least here in the u. S. The cruise stocks bounced back hard from the lows in october of 2014, through the end of 2015, caribbean gained 63 , norwegian, more than 69 . Last year, though, the group experienced deja vu, thanks to the zika virus, which while less deadly than ebola, its more common inplaces people like to take cruises like the caribbean. People started freaking out about the zika effect on pregnant women and the cruise stocks got slammed again however, the management teams at the cruise lines were a lot more sanguine about the situation as a matter of fact, they never pan panicked they were very straightforward carnival actually characterized the zika outbreak as part of a low level noise of the cruise industry more important,and this is why they could get away saying that, they told us it wasnt hurting their bookings i think the analysts were saying oh, come on, not hurting your bookings then Royal Caribbean echoed that same sentiment they said zika accounted for just 1 of company wide cancellations. Turns out it just wasnt a big deal once again, the stocks came roaring back and a lot of that was on the backs oh of a short squeeze. Now you have to fast forward to this past january. Why did goldman go negative on carnival the strength of Royal Caribbean had been contained, but they thought the expectations had gotten ahead of themselves and saw a stronger dollar and higher fuel prices hurting. Goldman also didnt like that the stocks valuation was near the high end of its historical range. They thoughtRoyal Caribbean would be a laggard and they werent exactly thrilled about carnival or norwegian, either. Since then, the stocks have been unstoppable. Theyve been so strong that goldman was forced to upgrade back to neutral, raise estimates for the whole group. So where do these analysts go wrong . And again, first of all, goldman made a lot of assumptions that turned out to be incorrect for example, they thought the cruise lines would lag behind the rest of the travel and leisure space as corporate profits continue to rebound, aided by tax reform in washington of course, its now august weve seen zero progress on tax reform and the cruise industry has seen Strong Demand what else . After the election, many economists predicted we would see a pickup in inflation and rebound in oil prices. Both of which would be bad for the cruise industrys ability to keep costs down. Oil is still in the 40s. Experts were expecting big tax cuts and infrastructure programs, when washington has been totally paralyzed so like many people on wall street, the guys at goldman were credulous about what politics could accomplish the cruise business is on fire, with Royal Caribbean generating some of the best numbers in the past five years and costs for the cruise lines are at record lows this is the last stock they should have downgraded finally, the piece claimed that the cruise stocks had gotten too expensive. Especially Royal Caribbean but they were object expensive if you believed the earnings estimates. The Cruise Companies have

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