His annual vacation in hawaii to deal with the fiscal cliff. No sight of congressional leaders. Theyre not in town. Investors getting a little bit nervous. Will congress get it together in time . No talks that we know of are imminent. It was by at least one measure, the weakest Holiday Retail sales growth since the financial crisis back in 2008, but could a postchristmas holiday sales bounce be around the corner . And what a year it has been for tech. Gadgets and gizmos. Apple, facebook, microsoft all have big news. Will 2013 be a lucky year for the sector . Which tech titans might lead the new trends . Simon hobbs is in at the new york stock exchange. Good afternoon. When president obama arrives back in d. C. , can he prevent america falling over the fiscal cliff . House republicans havent yet called their members back to washington. Our chief political correspondent, john harwood, is with us. John, this feels very much like it might be the calm before the storm in more way than one. It could be if we go over the cliff and the storm would be generated by the markets and the loss of confidence in american governance and the american economy, but thats not necessarily going to be the case. We still have a few days left. A white house official told me that there have been no progress over the last couple of days, but an aide to senator harry reid told me theres still a 50 50 chance we get a mini deal that would put off the effects of the cliff at least temporarily and a 50 50 chance of that happening before january 1st. So even though theres a small number of days, sometimes the urgency of a deadline forces lawmakers to overcome differences they cant overcome otherwise. Remind us, john, a mini deal is composed in the senate but still has to pass through House Republicans and boehner or not . Yes. And the question about the mini deal would be, what were talking about, just to make clear for our viewers, would be a temporary extension of tax cuts for incomes under 250,000, a couple of months, for example, a temporary turnoff of the sequester, the automatic cuts equally in defense and nondefense programs that nobody wants to happen, you temporarily turn those off, you extend unemployment benefits, you do something about doctor payments under medicare. If that happens, and clears the senate, there would be a bipartisan majority in the senate if it is allowed to get to the floor, then you would have to have Speaker Boehner agree to put that on the floor, it would pass the house almost certainly, but the speaker has been reluctant to put any bill on the floor for a vote that doesnt have the support of a majority of his own members, of republican members. He would have to breach that rule in order for it to happen before january 1st. Which is no small feat, as we see. Before we let you go, this business has been very forthright in its rise above campaign which basically tell Political Parties to get it together and do what was right for the country. I see other businesses particularly in d. C. Beginning to pick up that lead. Well, you have Starbucks Stores tomorrow are beginning a campaign, i dont know how large the campaign is going to be, to have inscribed on some of the sleeves that go around their coffee to make it easier to hold, going to write come together in a message to politicians in washington, and you know, if coffee cant unite people, what can . Lets hope. The clocks still ticking. John harwood in washington, thank you. What are the chances that a deal can be reached this week . Jonathan allen is a Senior Correspondent at politico. Welcome. You just heard john harwood say that there are some rumblings that there might be a 50 50 chance of a socalled mini deal that would do something to avoid the sequestration and avoid the worst of the tax hikes. Is that what youre hearing . Thats how bad it is. Were down to a 50 50 chance of a mini deal. For two years the president and the congress together collectively and also individually essentially abdicated their leadership on the budget. I dont know why anybody would necessarily expect that to change over the next two or three days so the best you could hope for is a little bit of kicking the can down the road a little further, abdication. There is no indication theres any movement on a deal yet. The president is coming back into town with hopes of changing that dynamic, but we still havent seen anything that resembles an agreement. By the way, once they reach something, theyve still got to sell this to the individual members of congress, not just on the senate side but also these House Republicans who have shown a willingness to sometimes take things to the very edge. Mr. Boehner was not able to pass through or bring to the floor his proposal on plan b which would have allowed tax rates to stay where they were except on the Million Dollar plus earners. Is his speakership in the balance here in any sense . In some ways, not bringing stuff to the floor is actually better for him with his own members. They dont want to take votes that they see as purely as purely sort of signals. They dont want to vote to raise taxes if theyre not actually going to be moving that package forward, if theyre going to vote to raise taxes or at least let tax rates expire on the upper end, they only want to do that once. Thats not something they want to keep doing. Certainly if Speaker Boehner puts something on the floor that his republican conference is not happy with, thats a risk that hes taking. Has the president moved much on spending . Because we talk all the time about the taxes but we seem to give a little less emphasis on the spending. Is the president meaningful moving on that . Depends on your definition of meaningfully. Certainly there has been some movement from the white house over time on spending. I think theres been a Movement Toward talking about entitlements. When you talk about the cpi, Consumer Price index, that shift over there, thats a small concession to where republicans are but nobodys really talking about the big spending cuts that would have to be made to major entitlement programs to really alter the way that our budget course looks for the future, or to raise taxes in such a way as to pay for those programs as they are currently constituted. We made a lot of promises that are too costly to keep, it seems to me. Thank you very much. Have a happy new year. You, too. Simon . Lets check where we are in the markets. One of the major questions youve got to ask, in the wake of the quite big fall you had on the dow on friday, the biggest in a month, whether we are now reaching a turning point and the market is becoming sensitized to what is happening in washington and where, therefore, that will lead us in terms of price action over the next five days. Bob pisani . If you look at the interday, we were positive on the day earlier on. We dropped in the middle of the day and some people are attributing this to concerns that the house leadership did not issue the 48 hour call for the whole house to come back into session and vote on a proposed plan even though there isnt one out there, some are interpreting this to mean there will be no deal certainly going into the weekend. Of course, the time period on which we can do something now gets smaller and smaller. Let me show you a couple sectors here. We talked about this mastercard report on sales only up 0. 7 . Luxury retailers getting hit hard. Can i just point out that none of these luxury retailers have done very well this year. Tiffany, coach, ralph lauren are negative on the year and have been even before todays report. Michael kors is the standout in luxury. Remember they went public about a year ago. Thats had a great run, up about 60 this year. But thats the standout in retail. Can i also point out that some of the big banks are holding up very well today. Theres another new high on bank of america. Citigroup is at a 52week high and soj me of the Regional Bank also on a high as well. Time for a cough drop. Sorry. Bob pisani battling through. We are also on storm watch today. The deadly system that dumped snow and sleet in the countrys midsection, releasing tornadoes around the deep south, thats now moving towards the northeast and it is having a major impact on holiday travelers. With hundreds of flights now canceled. Weather channel meteorologist David Malkoff has the very latest on the storms path. Wow, look at that. We are getting 25, 26, 28 mile an hour wind gusts right here on the northern suburbs of indianapolis, indiana, and it is getting worse as the winds start to push and the snow starts to fall down here. Lets talk about the airports around the nation. Starting here in indianapolis, at last check, 144 flights canceled. Were seeing the same kind of numbers out of dallas and also cancellations out of chicago. At clevelandhopkins, out of columbus, all of those airports are being affected by this storm and that means that a lot of people will not be able to get back home after their holiday vacations. Lets talk about the Financial Impact just here in indianapolis, one of the big malls closed down for the day. This is traditionally a big day where people go to return things and also use those gift cards. Still, they can use the gift cards online. That is the Silver Lining to this very silvery day here in the midwest. Im dave malkoff for the weather channel. Back to you guys. Its coming here, ladies and gentlemen. Now to Mary Thompson with a market flash. You know, among all these Retail Stocks which were down today, we do have one trending higher, jcpenney up almost 2 , up for the second session in a row. In the wake of a positive note on oppenheimer saying the companys aggressive discounting into the Holiday Season should actually bode well for the companys sales in what has turned out to be a much weaker than expected Holiday Shopping season than some analysts have predicted. Again, jcpenney up over 2 . Thank you. Slowest Holiday Retail sales growth since 2008 according to one measure. Will holiday gift cards give stores a big boost . Jane wells is live. Is mario lopez there . He hangs out there, right . Reporter mario, love you no, hes not here. We will talk about gift cards next, which ones are the best to use, which ones are the most people are buying and we are also going to look at how some retailers have developed a new strategy starting for after christmas. Im the operating partner of exchange bar and grill located in new york city. Im annoyed. Im annoyed with the fiscal cliff. Were looking at not knowing whats going to happen. We fall off this cliff and everyone gets affected. Theres no trickle down effect. Its more like a slush. We will lose income. The question is, how much income are we going to lose. If we fall off the cliff, the fear is that we fall off the cliff, not slowly glide down the cliff. Big government at this point needs to understand that we should be able to trust you to do the right thing, put politics aside, think about us, the people. Thats why we have government. Fix it. A raise your rate cd. Tonight our guest, thomas sargent. Nobel laureate in economics, and one of the most cited economists in the world. Professor sargent, can you tell me what cd rates will be in two years . No. If he cant, no one can. Thats why ally has a raise your rate cd. Ally bank. Your money needs an ally. As the Holiday Season comes to a close, the early numbers suggest that what started out strong is now ending in a whimper. Mastercard spending cost unit estimates that sales rose 0. 7 over the past two months compared to a year ago, which would be the weakest pace of annual growth since 2008, at the height of the financial crisis. Earlier this morning, cnbc spoke with Michael Mcnamara from mastercard. Beginning of december when we start to see sales come down, the confidence numbers also start to come down. Its something that the Media Coverage really has brought home and really clarified what the fiscal cliff means to personal finance. That debate really seems to be acting, its almost creating a sense of gravity thats pulling down different elements of the economies. Now, remember what theyre reporting here is a 0. 7 gain in sales year on year. Its not about margins, not about excess inventory, not about how profitable theyve been. Thats why some of these stocks have fallen to an even greater extent as you can see. Macys, coach, gap, sears and nordstrom in negative territory. This is the first read weve had on the sales for the season until these guys come through one by one with their own figures. Thats right. Virtually every retailer down at this hour. Weak sales of course heading into the holidays, but will retailers see a postchristmas bump . Jane wells live at the grove in los angeles where cardcarrying shoppers are looking for deals. Reporter people are here carrying bags in for returns, carrying bags out with new purchases, but some retailers are actually developing entire strategies for whats happening starting today. Macys in particular is being especially aggressive with its quote, week of wonderful afterchristmas sale. Goodbye holidays, hello savings, it says. Expect a lot of those savings sales to be bought with gift cards. Ceb tower group says gift card sales this year will hit a record 110 billion and shoppers, listen up, bank rate says store branded gift cards charge lower fees on cards than banks or Credit Card Companies so which types of cards are the most popular . The number one type of gift cards that people want or are going to buy were department stores. That was followed by restaurants, bookstores, electronics and then entertainment which included music and movies. Okay. We were just talking about awful depressing numbers from mastercard, spending pulse showing 0. 7 growth in the holidays. Lot of analysts disputing that number and the National Retail federation is saying you got to be kidding me. The last time the numbers were as low as these guys are saying they were was christmas of 2008, and we all remember what was going on in the fall of 2008. So we dont think were going to see numbers like that when this is all said and done. Reporter now, they are sticking with the sales Growth Prediction for the holiday. We wont know for sure until many of the retailers start reporting december sales, a week from friday, so end of next week. Of course, if you look at how the shares are doing, all down today, there are two huge retailers, top two arent part of that reporting group thats going to be next week. Amazon and walmart. Well get most of everyone else but we wont get the two 800 pound gorillas in retail. You make a great point. You have to wait until the retailers themselves actually report their results to get maybe a more definitive view of this. It seemed also like there was not any item this year in many stores that was the musthave. Remember when the ugg boots were so popular two years ago . That brought people in and drove sales. This year, i dont know what it is. It was nothing, really. Reporter no, and actually, Marshall Cohen made a really interesting point about that. He said thats why gift cards did so well because you didnt know what to get anybody. You just gave them a gift card. The hoodyfooty pajamas. Thats what i love. Reporter always. Always very nice. Holiday retail sales growing by that one measure at their weakest pace since 08 so are you waiting for postchristmas bargains or a fiscal cliff resolution . What are you waiting for . Go to yahoo . Finance. Com and take our poll. Simon . I just want to say one more thing on this subject before we hit the break. I didnt realize that as far as retailers are concerned, gift card sales are not counted on their earnings until people have actually spent the money on the gift card. That means two things. It means the race is on for these guys to now book the profits and make people spend but also, that there may be salvation in that everybody wanted gift cards this year and thats why the initial figures look so weak. That could come back as a result of what happens over the next couple of days. Yeah. I got some gift cards myself and youre quite right. I dont think those sales are booked until the gift card is actually redeemed. So lets move on for the moment. Pages and pages of new rules go into effect next year as part of president obamas health care bill. What it all means for the Health Care Sector and investors in 2013, ahead on the show. Plus, want to improve your dating life . Potentially you may now have to improve your credit score. Mine was earned off vietnam in 1968. 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