Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20131113 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch November 13, 2013

Fail and if it is, should you leave your money there or not . S theres a big discussion, sue, about whether some of the big Asset Managers are systemically important, ie, too big to fail. Indeed. Thats been a discussion recently, ty. Well talk about that. We also are talking ate the nasdaq, pushing higher today, but its had a few lack laster days recently. So questions are being raised about whether the tech heavy index is setting up for a bigger pullback. The nasdaq is, however, still up 36 in a year and thats nothing to shake a stick at. And since that march 2009 bottom the index is up 210 . So should we cue the bear video . Perhaps. Because its cold. We picked polar bears today. Arent they cute . A number of stocks at the nasdaq already in bear market territory. What does that mean for all the other stocks there . Sheila dharmarajan is bear hunting at the nasdaq. Hey, sheila. Hey there, sue. The nasdaq is staging a little rally today, but when it comes to the tech heavy index traders tell me we are over bought, over stretched and trading at thin levels. So could this mean there is a bigger pullback in store . Well, we decided to go bear hunting and see which nasdaq stocks are already in pullback mode and which are pretty close. So based on yesterdays close looking at the nasdaq 100, ten stocks are officially in bear market territory. That means theyre off more than 20 since their recent highs. We do have some highflying names on that list like tesla, Green Mountain coffee, intuitive surgical. Another five names at the nasdaq 100 close, big names like facebook, down about 16 , monster beverages and akamai. The aggregate about a third of the nasdaq 100 stocks are in correction mode. That means they are down more than 10 since hitting their highs. So the big picture, what does this mean . Are we going to see more of this bear hunting happen . Traders tell me look, will are signs it the they are watching closely. Also, a lot of the technicals like advancers and decliners havent been on the nasdaq side. What is on the nasdaq side, seasonality. Everyone has been talking about the santa claus rally lately. Nasdaq has been a beneficiary of that. The Stock Traders almanac tell us since 1980, about 77 of the time the nasdaq has staged a rally when it comes to the last trading days of december. Maybe thats working in the nasdaqs favor right now but, of course, we are all on the hunt for those bears. Sue . All right. Thank you so much, sheila. Now to the dow and the s p 500. If both of those indices close down today and the dow is off about 4 points it would be the first backtoback loss this month. Whats ahead . Lets bring in bob pisani and kenny pull carry director with oneills security and cnbc corrector. Sheila highlighted the names but tesla is up huge for the year as a whole. Right. You have to take that in stride. It might be off 30 , but its up how much . I mean is it still up 70 on the year. Is it really in bear market territory. You know. Given the range its at. Certainly its in bear market territory if you take it just from its high but overall its been certainly a good performer for the year. All the top stocks you mentioned are high names, theyve moved much more than the market. The market up 1 , theyre up 2 . Those are the names that suffer when people start to want to take money off the table. Theyre the outliers. Those stocks are up today. Those high beta nasdaq names. Theyre kind of plateaus. Right. The yelps of the world and linkedin of the world. What do you make of the market today . I think its more of the same. Stuck in the fed speak, are they or arent they. The market remains confused. In a tight range, 1740, 1775 is where were going to be until you get more clarity and were not getting any clarity on any given day. Look at the market here. I made this point earlier. Narrow range, traders sitting on the hands, light volume but all year when you move sideways for three or four days, the market tends to move up rather than down. Right. In other words everybody cant figure out what to do and it drifts upwards. Look at the last half hour. But it goes on low volume so what that tells you its more proprietary trading versus the big Asset Managers making any changes in portfolio. Exactly. Getting towards the end of the year so they want to be very careful theyve had a good year. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it very much. Lots of news in the Retail Sector to tell you about. Macys hitting a record high today. As Third Quarter comp sales rose better than expected 3. 5 . More advertising brought in more business. Macys right now is traded up just under 10 to the plus side. Different story for perry ellis the clothing designer cut earnings and revenue forecast for the Third Quarter and year due to reductions in its private label business. That stock is down 22 . Lululemon gaining ground up about 4. 3 after Jpmorgan Chase began coverage of the maker with an overweight rating saying lieu lieu lemon with accelerating growth in top and bottom lines, follows last years execution issues. Up to you. Thank you very much. Drill down a little bit on macys and the outlook for Holiday Retail with cnbcs retail analyst stacy widlet. Good as always to see you. Hi, ty. You were one of the people let the record show who was very strongly bullish on macys. You must feel good about it now. Its trading at an alltime high. Do you still love it . I do. Heres the deal, tyler. Coming out of q2 everybody thought retail was the end of the world. Traffic hit a wall. So that was the opportunity to buy great names. Macys came out today, their comps were better than expected, theyre talking about strength across the board in geographies, across the quarter, and october being the best month. So thats a great indication here, certainly as we look into holiday for certain names, not for everybody. Lets turn to another certain name which i think comes out tomorrow with its earnings nordstrom. Does this macys report auger well for it. Nordstrom is one of the places you shop. Nordstrom has the advantage of they have the rack which is the offprice part of the company, so think tgx how well thats been doing and also a lot of elements that macys is doing right whether thats omni channel, localization, whether thats upgrading their staff. I think, you know, macys is a good indication of best companies that will come out on top this Holiday Season and i think nordstrom falls into that category as well. Thats a very interesting way. We have to leave it there. Thats an interesting way to think about it. Go for the best in breed and you rarely go wrong. Stacy, thank you very much. Good to see you. To kate kelly with breaking news on another retailer. Kate . Tyler, thanks so much. We have breaking news on crocs, the shoe maker apparently under way with discussions with at least a couple of private equity firms about a possible leveraged buyout, privatization of the Company Worth a little more than a billion dollars in market cap. These talks have been going on about two months, and parties that have been in discussions with them include kkr and blackstone two of the big players. Im told kkr is more than likely out of the game at this point, although blackstone is still considering the possibility of a deal. However, talks im told are fizzling a little bit in general. Its not clear whether things will come together or not. But the stock has clearly been reacting very, very well to this news today up by double digits at one point earlier. Now a ril bit off those highs. Still very strong, tyler. Thats one well continue watching for you. Its up 7 now. As you mentioned, kate, off the highs but a decent percentage gain. Thanks, kate. A number of ipos begin trading today and dominic chu is tracking them all for us. Hi. On ipo watch. So no, these arent twitter, right, but still joining the fraternity of publicly traded companies. Kick it off on a bullish note. Extended stay america surging in their debut. The hotel and lodging chain up around 15 off their session highs. On the slightly more bearish side of things, weve got diana gas lng partners Liquified Natural Gas shipping company down around 2 to 3 in trading. The company sold about 12. 5 million of the Partner Units at 18 bucks apiece. The most bearish of the ipo trades today is chegg. The educational Products Company priced 15 million shares at 12. 5 apiece. They rent textbooks, provide online resources for students for things like scholarships and course reviews but those shares not appetizing for investors today. Meanwhile, president obamas technology chief getting grilled on capitol hill today over all the problems plaguing that Health Care Exchange website. Talk about laying an egg. Eamon javers live in washington. Hi, tyler. Its been a tough hearing up here on capitol hill for the Obama Administration officials here testifying, testy at times within the Committee Hearing room. Members of congress fighting about who gets to ask which question, whos insulted whos staff. But one of the key questions they keep coming back to over and over again is exactly how long is it going to take to fix healthcare. Gov and will the administration be able to hit the november 30th deadline it has publicly set for itself. The Administration Officials havent been able to give a good answer to that question today. Take a listen to things exchange. Are we going to hit november 30th . Thank you for the question. Thank you for your kind words at the beginning as well. So the goal that has been laid out is for the site not to be perfect by the end of november functional, people can log on . So that vast majority of americans will be able to use the site smoothly. Thats the goal were gunning for and working very hard to get there. Thats about what theyve said. Is that the goal were working hard to get there, but no guarantees here today from the white house folks that healthcare. Gov will be up and running by november 30th. Sounds like blanket promises or guaranteed is probably not the way to go. Especially in this very complicated it technical situation. Maybe it was a mistake to put that out there in the first place. The woman who was the face of obama care, remember her, it was her picture on the healthcare. Gov website, she was on Good Morning America on abc. Abc news says her first name is adriana. We dont know her last name. And this is the first time the country has heard from her and she was not happy. We signed the release that said it was possibly going to be used for material for promoting the health care, which i didnt know it was going to have a negative impact. Dubbed glitch girl, the most despised face on the planet. Did you ever anticipate this type of publicity, scrutiny . No. Its bullying. It is bullying. But at the same time, you know, i thought i had to do this for my child. Im here to stand up for myself and defend myself. According to abc news, adriana is not a u. S. Citizen, interestingly, but is eligible for obama care because of her permanent residency status. She says she was not paid for the picture by the government. Cnbc. Coms dan mangan is here now. What can you tell us about this interesting woman who is understandably quite upset with what has happened. Very upset, the face of the failure of healthcare. Gov and this is kind of a sad or funny story depending on your perspective. She wanted to get free family photos and contacted somebody she knew and said can you take these photos. Great with. Well use this picture on healthcare. Gov. Signed a release allowing them to use her image or likeness as the front page of obama care. Right. There is no free lunch and no free photos when it comes to healthcare. Gov. Suffer the consequences. What is she likely to do . Is there any talk of a lauts here . I assume there isnt . I dont think she has any recourse at all and i think shes she got her five seconds of fame this morning at abc. The bigger problems, the face of healthcare. Gov theyre showing low levels of enrollment, less than 50,000 people have signed year to date combine that with the state exchanges, less than 100,000 people in october where the goal was five times that, 500,000 people. I have a sneaky feeling for all the upset this young lady has faced this is going to end well for her. People see that publicity and feel sympathy for her predicament and i bet it turns out better than she might think. Thank you. Sue, down to you. Thanks, ty. Goldman sachs employees sweating bullets. Many bankers find out today if theyve made the cut to managing director. Is a career make or break moment, sure is. We have the details and what goldmans latest moves means for wall street pay. Plus, it may be the future of breakfast. Its a power pitch youve got it see. Welcome back to power lunch. Shares of independent oil and gas company Qep Resources moving towards session highs an drifting off here. The company one of geana partners. They sent a letter asking the company to form an independent committee to study a spinoff of the popline business. Janna is the largest shareholder. Keep an eye on those shares. Thank you very much. Time for the power lunch countdown. A lot of nail biting and sweating at Goldman Sachs today. I guess more than just normal there. Hundreds of midlevel bankers at the firm will find out if they made the cut to be named a managing director. Mary thompson and kate kelly join us. What can you tell us about the presumptive class of new mds at gs . The formal announcement made. 280 of them, slightly larger tha than last years class of 266. Most about 200 in revenue producing roles, shouldnt be a surprise, things like trading, Investment Banking, et cetera. Coming into this year a lot of question about how big this class would be because its the last year that theyre going to be named on an annual basis. From this year on theyre going to be named every other year. So some people were thinking theyre going to name more, but keep in mind, goldman has been in a cost cutting mode and keeping compensation costs in line is one of the easiest ways. 280 new mds. Wheres the party tonight. What does this say about the overall trend of pay and promotion on wall street . Its interesting. Were seeing a slight a modest up performance in terms of paid projections this year, up 4 is the main projectionion overall for wall street bonuses globally. Thats overseas banks as well. A couple of points, things i would point you to in fixed income, a tough group this year, pay is expected to be down about 10 . On the equity side, unsurprising in light of this rally, projections up 12 . In other areas like Wealth Management, for example, were seeing modest upswing projections. A mixed bag actually more positive than not and as you said, mary, i think its all about revenue production and sort of pay per performance. That was going to be my question. Is the take away its pay per performance. Equities do well so if youre in equities you do well. Bonds and other fixed income havent done so well. Its been a trend. After the financial crisis, i think wall street took a good hard look at compensation and said were not going to pay the mediocre performers for doing a mediocre performance. Those who do well will be paid very well. If you unbundle the numbers in Wealth Management and prime brokerage which caters to hedge it funds, well healed client who is do a lot of business and good margins attached to them, less about the prop trading thats been rooted out by the volcker rule. Do you have a client base that will buy your services, get lucky with a big deal. If not or money maker. Thats right. Folks, thanks. Sue, down to you. Thank you all very much. The housing now, the number of people applying for mortgages slipping. Rates on loans have jumped to their highest level in a month. Mortgage applications falling almost 2 last week. What do the nations biggest Home Builders think about the health of the Housing Market right now . Diana olick speaking with pultes ceo just a short while ago. Shes here at post nine. Good to see you as always. Youre right. Rising Mortgage Rates are not the only thing playing against the big builders right now as sue said, we have the exclusive opportunity to interview the ceo of pulte homes, one of the nations largest builders to get his take on why were seeing this pause in the housing recovery. The pause has been caused by rapidly rising rates a few months ago, the government shutdown, i dont think helped anything, and then concerns around affordability as home prices have risen quite a bit. We are still far below longterm averages. I had think we need good job growth in the country to really help the Housing Market over the long run. Second in size only to dr horton pulte operates in several categories acquiring entrylevel syntex during the recession but now focusing on the move up and higherend homes in their pulte and active adult dell web divisions. He admits demand is slow for entry level and thats why pulte is focusing on those higher end homes. I think youre going to have to adjust in our case the overall portfolio in order to take advantage of that and perhaps the entry level is not 40 or 50 of overall market like it used to be. Maybe it settles in at 35 or 30 . I dont know exactly. And by no means is that market dead. Its a question of how robust is it. Meantime our job is to invest where we can get the best returns and right now were seeing that in the move up and active adult category. Pultes entry level pitted against the Single Family rental market which he said he thinks is a longterm place so interesting because some people think that its going to be a quick gain. He says its going to be longterm competition for the builders. Great interview, fascinating to hear from him. Good to have you at post nine. Fun. Come up more often. Ty, up to you. Thank you very much, sue. The big banks too big to fail but what about Mutual Fund Giants Like Fidelity and vanguard and others, whats at stake in this debate. Is this the future of breakfast . Coming up, an eggciting edition of power pitch. The scientists have hatched a recipe for the egg and it doesnt involve

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