30 days until you know what. So were going to talk about where americans are going to be shopping this year, what they will be buying and the retailers that are set to win. And those that will be left out in the cold. Speaking of cold, there are some look at that, i dont know what that it is but looks bad. Snow, of course. That would be cold. Major headaches expected for travelers as we head towards that thanksgiving holiday. Big winter storm stretching from the southwest to the eastern seaboard. It will be coming up the west as i show you there. Well track it first to sue at the new york stock exchange. Clear sailing down here but were watching shares of walmart, the biggest retailer announcing a ceo shakeup. The timing is raising questions as we head into the crucial hol kay season. Walmart shares are up about twothirds of a percent, the stock up 17 this year lagging the market. Courtney reagan here with the retail detail. Good afternoon, sue. While walmart didnt allude to the fact that a transition was actively in the works neither the choice of mick million as the incoming ceo or the timing is surprising. Doug mcmillon is the ceo of walmart international. Known more as a merchant with International Expertise where mike duke is regarded for his expertise in logistics. Walmart says his decision to retire is a personal one. Mcmillon spent 22s years at walmart and just 47. His first job was a Summer Associate in a distribution center. Having heard from one analyst surprised by the news, many thought mcmillon was on the short list along with walmart u. S. Ceo bill simon. It is walmarts busiest week of the year but the planning has been in the works for months. Mike duke told the board of his decision in november, when the vote was cast for mcmillon which is how it happened with duke when his predecessor scott announced he would step down. Duke will be ceo through the Holiday Quarter and will transition mcmillon over the next couple critical months as lee scott did for him. The Company Lines up with the companys fiscal year. They will close out the allimportant Holiday Quarter and mcmillon will take over. Duke will remain as chairman, stay on and advise mr. Mcmillon and the like. Thank you very much. Lets get reaction to the news. Cnbc market analyst stacy and chris, retail hardlines analyst at jpmorgan. Whats your Immediate Reaction to this walmart news . Not totally unexpected. And if you think about dougs background here hes been with the company 20 plus years. Hes a lifer at walmart and also has the experience. Hes been on the u. S. Side, sams club and international. He has all the memtss to put together that make sense. They typically stay inhouse when they change ceos, dont they . They do. The past two ceos have been within house. I would add that doug adds a lot of polish. Ambassador for walmart being ceo, a good merchant, spread around between u. S. , samss and international and very polished. Where are you on this stock some. Neutral. Neutral. 82 price target. What would you like to see them do differently than theyre doing today to get that stock moving higher . I think the best bull case for walmart is if they took another 2 billion out of capital spending, pushed that through to the dividend, maybe acted like a more mature retailer in the u. S. , not grow as many small box stores and return that capital to the shareholde shareholders. This is a company that has had controversial around it. The mention man bribery scandal. Talk to me about that the new ceos connection because he ran international, if any to that particular event and i dont know if youve noticed theyre doing a lot of image advertising these days, saying were not as bad as you think. Were promoting 600 people a day. Right. What are the image issues here that the new ceo has to face and what is his history with the connection to that . I think there are definitely some rebuilding in terms of the image after the controversy and so theyre going out there and saying were making our employees on thanksgiving but feed them, give them a 25 discount, treat them better. So theyre definitely going out and trying to rebuild that image after the scandal. What about the international thing. Is the new guy, is he connected to that at all . He came in actually post that era. Hes, you know, hes clean in this. Free and clear. Clean in this. Were going to take a break here and not a break but were going to separate from you for a minute and come back and talk to us about retail and this Holiday Season in just a moment with christmas exactly a month away. Send it over to dominic chu for a market flash. So biogen is continuing its surge which started on fridays when the Company Received in essence a patent approval for ten years in europe for its multiple sclerosis drug. Once it gains approval from the European Union and regulators that is expected to happen some time in the year future. Those shares continuing their bull run. Back to you. Thank you very much. Breaking news on the bond market, the twoyear note going off the board for action. Rick santelli is tracking the action. Aminus auction. The twoyear notes referenced earlier ha were auctioned at 1 00 eastern had a yield of. 30. Which was the offer side of the one issue market. Very aggressive. 3. 54 was the bid to cover versus ten auction average at 3. 28. Best since april 23rd. Directs at 27. 3, best since april 23rd. Very solid demand on that aminus auction. These are the smaller auctions for 34 straight months we had 99 billion, theyve trimmed the two year and rests at 96 billion, down from 35 to 32 as this auction went off. Sue, back to you. Still a lot of money, rick. Appreciate it very much. The nasdaq finally crossing above the widely watched 4,000 level. Havent seen that since september of 2000. Right now the nasdaq has been hovering beebe lo that level at 3996. 94. The nasdaq the big winner up 32 . Outperforming both the dow and the s p. Sheila dharmarajan is following the big movers at the nasdaq for us. Hi, sheila. Hey, sue. Weve been talking about it for weeks but today we finally hit the allimportant 4 k mark. Plenty of time until the closing bell. For the stocks that arent joining the nasdaq 4k party. Keep an eye on qualcomm down today after the company said china was investigating one of its business units. Ebay taking a hit, coming out with a cautious note about its cyber monday sales an got to mention the internet stocks, facebook, pandora, yelp, all taking a beating today. No real headlines but a lot of people saying there could be twitter sympathy trading going on. For whats been helping lead the nasdaq higher today and this entire year, got to talk about biotech stocks. The nasdaq biotech index alltime high today. Dom mentioned biogen one of the names helping the index but keep your eye on gilleyd as well. Thank you very much. See you in a little bit. Taking a look at oil, prices are under pressure following the Historic Nuclear Deal with iran penned over the weekend. The u. S. And five other world powers involved in that. Right now west texas intermediate crude down better than 1 . Do we go lower or not . Sharon epperson is at the nymex taking a look at that question. Over to you. Lets take a look at where weve come from here in terms of irans oil exports. We are looking at under this deal, the u. S. Saying that it will not tighten sanctions against iran. They could be dropped in the next six months, a big if, but weve already seen oil exports from iran go from 2. 5 Million Barrels in 2011 before the eu s u. S. Sanctions to 2012, 1. 5 Million Barrels and in october 715,000 Barrels Per Day for iranian exports. Under this deal the exports would be limited to 1 Million Barrels per day and if they actually reach that level that would be an increase in supply of about 285,000 Barrels Per Day or an increase in exports. That should pressure prices. But what traders really need to see is a longterm binding agreement for a sustained, dramatic decline in oil prices. Thats when analysts and traders are telling me. If that does happen kevin book Clearview Energy analyst says we could see brent crude prices at 90 a barrel. We saw a dramatic drop last night when the market opened and brent prices drop 3, only down about 30 cents right now. If we continue to see Oil Prices Slide and its a dramatic drop some analysts say we could see prices at the pump below 3 a gallon. We can only hope. Exactly. Thanks very much. Will the nuclear deal with iran boost the stock market higher . Were a little higher today. Heres what Morton SchoolWharton School professor said on cnbc expecting the dow to go much higher. My data shows the fair market value based on current earnings for the dow is probably around 18,000. Now it doesnt mean were going to get there right away or get there in a straight line. Boy, weve had a long time without even a 10 correction. But i dont think this bull market is over yet. I still think theres good gains to examine. Both of these gentlemen were chuckling during that sound bite require right here. Joining me on the nyse floor is a gentleman a little cautious scott colleges and Kenny Polcari who you know is director of oneill securities and a cnbc market analyst. You know, when i hear big numbers like 18,000, it makes me a little nervous given how far weve come, scott. Listen, this monday of thanksgiving week, let us be thankful for how far weve come. Absolutely. It reminds me of that old adage in the short run the market is a voting mechanism, the price function, the long run its a weighing mechanism. To start putting out nice figures like 18,000, 20,000 ignores the underlying engine of what actually drives the market. Right. Kenny . It gets frustrating when you hear a comment like that, he said the dow could go to 18,000 and of course. Its going to go to 20,000. Didnt say when its going to happen. Of course its going to go to 18,000 at some point. When somebody hears that, they think the dow is going to 18,000 next week. Thats not happening. Its not happening. And, you know, given the trajectory with which weve reached these market levels, scott, i know youre a little concerned not necessarily saying something will happen. Right. But if it does happen, given how high we are that the trajectory to the downside could be tough as well. Is that a correct read . A combination of the fact that Earnings Growth has begun to wane as the benefits of cost cutting are largely behind us, margins at alltime highs, add that valuations are full or slightly expensive and on top of that a lot of investor complacency thats a fragile environment. And all the fed stimulus which is fueling it. So the conversation becomes and every time it happens the fed starts to taper the market starts to get antsy and you can feel the anxiety. The fed knows it cant really pull back right now. It continues to fuel this conversation. Absolutely. You think investors need to do three things. Tell me . Rebalance. Rebalance, trim back and insist on a valuation discipline. One of the early casualties of a bull market like this, discipline. That gels with what you said v a plan, stick to the plan. Use the outliers as a source of cash and reallocate the money as he describes it. Put put it in the ones you view as the underperformers that will do better in the next year. What areas of the market do you still see value in, scott . Its getting hard. Where weve redeployed assets this year is outside of the united states. Weve put money to work in emerging markets because the valuation gap to the u. S. Is so wide. Europe has to be separate from the emerging markets, the real european markets. Europe is turning a very big corner and there are valuations beginning to arise. Gentlemen thank you very much. Good to see you again. Gobble gobble happy turkey day. Ty, up to you. Thank you very much. A major winter storm threatening thanksgiving travel plans in many parts of the country. The weather channels ja nel klein has the late e. Reporter the storm has alreadies caused 13 deaths and countless accidents and will hit at least 20 states by the time its over. Its brought with it snow, rain and ice to much of the west. Heavy rains in some parts causing flooding, heavy snow in other places causing whiteout conditions. The storm is not over yet, however. And the timing could not be worse as it moves east, travelers are very concerned about getting around for the thanksgiving Holiday Travel season. They know it could be difficult both on the roads and in the air as this threat of ice continues. In dallas, ja nel klein, nbc news. Back to you. The countdown to christmas is on. 30 days to go. Thats all. The number of big retailers are planning to open, of course, early on thanksgiving day. Where do americans plan to shop . What do they plan to buy . Also which retailers stand to win this year in the stores that will be left out in the cold. Plus which retailers do consumers like the most and the ones they cant stand. We got a naughty and nice list coming up. announcer scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. With scottrades smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. Their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in realtime. Plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. Because they know i dont trade like everybody. I trade like me. Im with scottrade. announcer ranked highest in Investor Satisfaction with selfdirected services by j. D. Power and associates. You get your coffee here. You get your hair cut here. You find that certain thing you were looking for here, but actually you get so much more. When you shop at these small local businesses, you support all the things that make your community great. The money you spend here, stays here. In this place you call your neighborhood. This saturday is Small Business saturday. Get out and shop small. Welcome back to power lunch. Were on the verge of one of the busiest shopping events of the year. Today a good day for the big name retail stocks. Macys, walmart, costco, amazon. Com, all hitting fresh record highs today. Strengthp in the economy and lower gas prices helping some of those consumers out. Some of the reasons were seeing the bullishness. Now its about whether consumers really do go out there, tyler, and spend some of that money. Back to you. I will be spending. Ive already picked out a very expensive pair of sox for you. Thanks. Its a month before christmas and people are lined up outside of best buy. Look at that. Tents out front of best buy waiting for the black friday deals. So will this Holiday Season be a good one for retailers as they face among other things higher payroll taxes, the new health care law, fewer shopping days. Experts with us in the studio. Chris, the retail hardline analyst at jpmorgan. Joining us from minneapolis which is where best buy is based, neely, Senior Research analyst at piper jaffray. Welcome. First of all we spoke to several shoppers about the retail climate this year and lets listen to what they had to say. We got a yule log burning here. Nice and warm. I will be doing black friday, actually doing black thursday which is thanksgiving night hitting a few of the stores because they are advertising the sales. Definitely hshg and m, probably walmart, target, the regular glares, big box stores. I think im spending a little more this year. Basically because my income is a little higher this year so i have a little more spending money. Last year i knew i got a bonus, so that definitely impacted my Shopping Habits but this year im not sure where whats going to happen. Lets start folks with a general thought about what you expect this year. Is this going to be a year of heavy discounting, heavy promotions. Its already started. Preblack friday deals from walmart last week, best buy announced theyre going to match them as well. Getting daily deal emails. Is that what youre seeing and are there price wars out there . Im thinking especially of electronics where amazon is competing, walmart is competing, best buy. Cont that crush their margins some. It does. These companies have prepareds us for this so best buy on the recent call said watch out, watch out for gross margin this quarter because they are going to take walmart on. Walmart is going to be aggressive with price, best buy is going to match. Throw in amazon. Amazon is doing deals, hot deals every ten minutes starting friday through black friday. Neely, how about you . What do you see and i know one of the areas you follow is the most especially apparel and some of those Big Companies which didnt have a particularly great Holiday Season last year . No. It didnt. Mainly because the weather was so warm. There was no reason to buy anything new in the cold weather apparel. That could be the counterintuitive story that happens this year. You get those winter temperatures and were already seeing them and you actually could get the conversion on some of that apparel his year. Chris, let me turn back to you. One of the companies that has had in the stock market a major comeback has been best buy. Yes. Do you think theyre going to do well this Holiday Season . Are they ready to compete . They are. I think theyre going to be the biggest winner this Holiday Season. Couple things driving that. Electronics always the hot item. A couple changes out there. Playstation 4, xbox one driving traffic to the stores, and also in the tvs you can get a 60 to 70 inch tv, 1,000 or lower. An thats a price point that the consumer responds to on a mass basis and at the same time a new Management Team whos executing the story much better. What about the point that stacy was making the competition is going to had hurt their margins, that as they come down to price match, they get squeezed . Best buy started matching amazon prices a year ago. Theyve always matched walmart. You had this preblack friday deals on friday. We were out in the stores, not a big difference going on out there. The consumer didnt know about it. Getting a little warm in here . I dont know. Litt