Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20140501 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch May 1, 2014

York stock exchange. Hi, sue. Hi, ty. Were going to start with jobs in america on the eve of the jobs report. Jobless claims up 14,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 344,000, higher than expected. The challenger report said job cut announcements were up 17 in april. But then the institute for supply managements Employment Index rose. So bob pisani is joining me right here on the floor of the new york stock exchange. Were near alltime highs on the Dow Jones Industrial average, just about to turn positive again. First, though, to senior economics reporter Steve Liesman on the jobs. Stevie, over to you. Hey, sue, thanks. Most economists out there are pretty optimistic about the friday jobs report. Well get to the forecast in just a second. Want to sew you that ism april manufacturing component that you just talked about. You can see that little winter swoon and popping back up in april. Not back to the best levels of later last year, but certainly ticking up at a good sign for manufacturing employment and really generally broader employment. Another thing we got positive data this morning, wages and salaries, ticking up one of the better monthtomonth gains weve had all year. Thats not quite right. Thats not thats the annual. We wanted the monthly data, which is up 0. 6 . And finally, one more chart we want to show you, the jobs report expectations here which are 215,000. Really unchanged since that adp report came out. The unemployment rate, 6. 6 . And theres the forward moving average of jobless claims coming down as well unemployment rate, 6. 6. Sue, there is some negative news out there, the gdp numbers were not fantastic. Also, the challenger be ins you mentioned. But the key indicators that are looked at by the economists suggest pretty strong growth for that jobs report tomorrow morning at 8 30. Sue . Steve, thank you so much. Now to bob pisani on the floor of the nyse. What does the market want to see tomorrow, and as steve so aptly outlined, the numbers that we saw today, what does the market make of that . First off, the numbers today, personal income and spending were very good. Savings rates a little low there. So people are spending and not saving much. But are getting more income quickly. I thought the ism number was excellent as well. What they want from tomorrow is another strong number. They want 250,000. That kind of number. That would be ideal. Something that really shows things. Realistically, though, if you get 200,000, i think 215,000 recei steve was mentioning is the consensus number, that may be good enough for the market to move at least sideways to slightly on the upside. Remember, its not so much about the direction. We know the direction is slowly up. Its about the pace of the direction. Absolutely. They want a little steeper curve because youre going to need that to significantly advance the market. Bob, thank you very much. Ty, up to you. Sue, thank you. If job creation is questionable, when and will it impact stocks with them being now near alltime highs . We have gene peroni and Jerry Castellini with castle management. Welcome to you both. The economic be ins the last couple day, gene, have been a little bit tepid. Some good, many not so good. How worried are you about the economy, and do you think, gene, that lets go to jerry. I guess we dont have gene. Jerry, let me pose the question to you. Sure. Are stocks a better indicator of where we are in the economy, or are the economic numbers . Yeah. Very much so, tyler. You know, historically, traditionally, today, investors in equities are looking generally 9 to 12 months in the forward. So thats why weve had all the problems so far this year with weather and other crosscurrents. But the markets have hung in there. Theres been some thknockdowns some of the more aggressive names. You now see sectors that are doing well. Thats forecasting a better second half and for sure first half of 2015. And thats what the markets are generally looking to do. Thats why if you watch what the fed is doing, theyre happy to pull tapering back because they see a stronger 3 ish type of growth coming out of this downturn. I asked a market strategist, economist, last night whether the taper, the pulling back of stimulus, was a nonfactor for the market. He said basically i think its too early to tell. What would you say . No, i think the market is pretty clear in how its reading where the fed sees all these indicators. Again, youre talking about some of the squishy numbers in employment right now, possibly a fallout from a slow winter. But what the fed sees and what a lot of the forwardlooking indicators are telling us is that youre going to see pretty perky Economic Activity going starting this summer and going into the fall and winter. That would give them all the confidence to continue pulling back on taper. And having the market accommodate that, which it really has. I mean, you think about where were going to be now in about three or four months, the taper or the real qe part will be done. And the economy will be in our favorite, you know, growth mode. I will come back to you, jerry and ask you why you like a couple of consumer stocks in a minute. We do have gene who we have established contact with. Gene, welcome. The question for you thank you very much, tyler. About the economy right now, are you sort of hopeful that it will improve from the basically flat performance in the First Quarter . You know, i think theres too much distraction, maybe focus on the immediate economy and the Economic Data. This market for years now has been dodging, navigating through a lot of challenging news. I think its very predictive. Maybe the data right now isnt so great, but this market is anticipating something very strong. So no, im not terribly worried about tomorrows unemployment data or even some of the scheduled Economic Data through the month of may. I think the market is indicating that theres something much more bright on the horizon. Where can i make money over the next three to six months, gene . Well, the leadership hasnt really changed. I mean, youve had the biotechs under pressure lately and the Technology Stocks under pressure, others as well. I think its a great buying opportunity. So i still like technology. I like health care. I like energy. Manufacturing. But for those that are looking for a group thats been underperforming for several years now that looks like it could really have some legs here, i would point them to agriculture. I think that group is really going to come along here nicely. Agriculture. Companies like, not necessarily asking to endorse any particular ones. Well, Companies Like agrium, cf industries, monsanto. And then i go into the heavy equipment Companies Like caterpillar, deere and so on. Okay. Fantastic. Guys, thanks. Weve got to leave it there. We appreciate it. Dominic chu now, market flash. Kellogg. Its at session lows here. The control yar maker is posting a bigger than expected call in Quarterly Sales as its breakfast division fell 5. 5 . This as americans increasingly reach for alternatives such as greek yogurt. Kelloggs expects its cereal brands to continue to fall. Down 1. 5 on the day. Kell no double good. Exxon mobil leading the way. The nations Biggest Oil Company reporting a dip in profits but says exploration costs have fallen, and that helped it beat wall street estimates. This is exxons fourth straight quarter of profit declines we should point out. Conoco phillips reporting the oil and gas giant posting a flat quarter but still beating expectations. Conoco seeing production from its north american shale and Canadian Oil Sands projects edging higher. Mastercard beating the street. Earnings jumping 14 as cardholders made more purchases. Revenue also topping estimates there. Sue . Ty, 70 of the companies in the s p 500 have reported so far. Hundreds of earnings calls have been listened to, but according to mr. Mad money man, mr. Cramer, theres one call that was better than the rest of them. And he says everyone should own this stock. The First Quarter was strong for 3m marked by organic growth in all business groups and across all geographic areas. There are a lot of skeptical analysts out there who believe that the growth that many of these oldline Companies Like 3m is merely bought or manufactured while the core business languishes. But he tells you thats not the case with 3m. The fact that he said all geographic areas signals that 3ms businesses have transcended local issues in their territories. And 3m . Every territory. Bottom line, if all companies that were like 3m and all ceos like inga picking stocks would become a pretty easy exercise. That doesnt mean they cant make mistakes or their shortterm performance will always be spectacular, but it does mean long term it can be an ideal stock to own. 3m stands out as a company thats more in control of its own destiny than just about any other business i follow. And over the last year, 3m is up 35 . But check out the last five years when the market was near the bottom, well, this stock is up about 144 since then. Jim cramers going to join us a little bit later this hour. Were excited about that. Hes going to tell us about the Business Leaders that he listens to the most from that cnbc 25 list, ty. Looking forward to that. All right, sue. A cloud is covering the ipo market these days. And now a cloud could be covering the cloud. What are you talking about here, dom chu . So much cloud reference here overall. When it comes to investing, Cloud Computing is all the rage, but it gets cloudier generally speaking. Investors have been pretty happy with returns from these kinds of stocks. One etf is up 25 over the past year. This is the cloud index etf. The ticker is skyy, skyy. There are a lot of different kinds of companies that are all operating in some kind of a cloud capacity. Youve got the emcs of the world in terms of storage, sales force, citrix, even the big names like amazon and ibm. Theres an interesting divergence happening at least in the short term. Some of the recent cloudbased ipos have been faltering. Look at this one, up 112 since its ipo, but its down 26 so far year to date. Similar story with benefit focus and smaller cloud player rally software. Both those are down as well. For you, traders are making money, though, taking that money off the table and maybe deploying it into larger cap tech names like an ibm, like a microsoft, like an hp, all of those are growing their cloud businesses and each of their share values are up on the year, 4 for ibm, 7 for microsoft, 18 for hp. These guys have cloud divisions, and theyre big balance sheets, and theyre developing these businesses. They could be at least for now, the attractive cloud plays. Look at hp, up 18 so far this year. Its no longer on the dow. Right. Well, of course, they were starting off with a little bit of a lower base over the past few years. Sue, down to you. Thanks, guys. There is a brandnew report out thats looking at the Auto Industries from some very different angles. One group talking about the software stocks. The i. T. Stocks. And more that are best positioned to benefit by a new highertech Auto Industry. Well talk about that when we come back on power in two minutes time. announcer scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. With scottrades smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. Their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in realtime. Plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. Because they know i dont trade like everybody. I trade like me. Im with scottrade. announcer scottrade. Voted best Investment Services company. What is this place . Where are we . This is where we bring together reliably fast internet and the best in entertainment. We call it the x1 entertainment operating system. It looks like the future we must have encountered a temporal vortex. Further analytics are necessary. Beam us up. Thats my phone. Hey. [ female announcer ] the x1 entertainment operating system. Only from xfinity. Tv and internet together like never before. Welcome back to power lunch. Check out shares of priceline. Com, moving smartly higher. No specific news but it could be investors are looking for, again, one of these bottoms in these stocks for the momentum names. The stock is currently up about nearly 3 . Its been a rough couple of months for priceline, losing about a tenth of its value. And that includes todays gains just so far in 2014. Still to the upside today. Back to you. Thank you very much. Worlds biggest automakers rolling out their latest sales figures. April turned out to be another solid month. Chrysler says u. S. Sales were up 14 . That topped estimates. Ram trucks and suvs led the way there. General motors sales rise of 7 . That eased fears about those ignition recall problems. All four of gms u. S. Brands, chevy, cadillac, buick and gmc, all of them reported yearoveryear growth. Different story, though, at ford. The automaker seeing sales drop about 1 in april. That was below estimates. Two reasons. Stalling sales of small cars and its struggling lincoln brand. And speaking of ford, the really big news is the companys announcement that mark fields will take over as expected for alan mulally as ceo. And the effective date, july 1. That is six months earlier than planned. Our phil lebeau speaking with the outgoing Ceo Alan Mulally first on cnbc about the big change. He has been the frontrunner, so to speak, or the preferred candidate, and to watch him step up and do this job and with his belief not only with his record of performance around the world, but his belief in the strategy, in the Management System and the people working together and the culture, we have the right guy at the right time to take ford forward. Mulally has been fords ceo since september of 2006. The stock has almost doubled in that time. Now, alan mulally is what you call a hot ceo. What does someone like alan mulally do next . A couple of our cnbc contributors say mulally has the pick of the litter. Almost any corporate job could be his. Yale school of management dean, associate dean, Jeff Sonnenfeld says hes needed at Caesars Entertainment which is a disaster of debt with no clear salvation. United airlines which he calls the loser of the century, of the industry, after all, mulally was a former ceo of boeing commercial airlines. Loser in the industry. United airlines. Yum brands, says sonnenfeld, could be a landing spot even though they recently named a new ceo. The company, he says, is in big china trouble. Our Herb Greenberg says it would be genius for him to go to united but that any board would benefit from having him on board, or he could retire and do the jack welsh kind of thing, be a ceo emeritus, or he could run for president. Leader of the free world. Most powerful man on earth. Many have written into cnbc saying as much that herb says that might be beneath mulally, or would it be . Anyhow, of those choices, sue, my guess would be United Airlines would be the best landing spot for him. It might be. Because hes an industrial guy, not really a service guy. That is absolutely true, ty. It will be fascinating to see where he ends up. Were going to talk about that and much more because Rbc Capital Markets putting out a really interesting special report on the auto sector. The firm taking a look at how Vehicle Technology will revolutionize cars over the next five years. Plus the auto and nonauto stocks that might benefit the most from this growing trend. Joining us are three rbc analysts, with me here at post 9 is the lead author of that report, auto analyst joseph spack. In san francisco, ari and in minneapolis, Software Analyst matt hedberg. Before we dive in, guys, into the report, and i read the report and i found it fascinating and very enlightening, especially in light of the amount of technology that i have in my own automobile, joseph, im going to start with you. I know you wont tell me where you think mr. Mulally will go, but of the different options that he has out there, which company do you think he would be a good fit with given his very extensive background . Yeah, first off, thanks for having me today. Sure. Look, i think mark fields said it best earlier today. Alan mulally goes down as a hall of fame ceo not only in the Auto Industry but i think a bit more broadly. Probably does have his pick of the litter, clearly comes from that industrial background. Something more along those lines is probably more up his alley. To be honest, zero insight into where hes going here. Maybe even get the sense that he would want to take a bit of a breather. You couldnt blame him for that, i guess. Lets talk now about the report. Give me the headlines, joseph, and then im going to go to your two colleagues as well because this is the first report ive seen thats taken a look at the Auto Industry from a Pure Technology standpoint. Whats integrated into the cars, what we use in our daily life that is now going into the automobile. So in a headline. Yeah, sure. Cars are already fairly sophisticated computers. Could be up to 100 different ecus, 15 million lines of code, but a lot of that goes towards the functioning of the vehicle. We increasingly see the vehicle being connected to the internet and talking to the internet. That has brought revolutions not only for the Auto Industry. A bunch of my colleagues will talk about Technology Industries but like the insurance industry. So specifically within auto, what we are looking at is connected infotainment. We think thats a segment thats going to grow about 11 through the end of the decade. We see penetration rates or take rates of those systems going from about 19 today to over 40 by 2020. And with that, you also have additional features and functionality you could do in terms of advanced driver assist

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