Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20140507 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch May 7, 2014

Alibaba plans to go public. Yahoo has a major stake. What does that ipo mean for yahoo and its shareholders . One of the wall streets top internet analysts will weigh in on that, an the battered social media stocks. Are these battered shares a buy . First lets check in with sue at the n dwrismt se. Its a very strong day here. Were off our best levels, but close to a tripledigit gain. Right now Dow Jones Industrial average is up 86 points, nasdaq as ty just mentioned down a full percent and change, once again a very tough session, and were only 36 points and change from breaking that 4,000 mark. S p 500 is up better than a tenth of a percent at 1870. 71. The nasdaq is not really following the dow in todays trading session. Seema mody will give us the breakdown. Hi, seema. Good afternoon. Thats right, an ugly day for the nasdaq. The primary catalyst become tech. And yaw hoar is in fact on the top of that list. Shares moving lower after ali baba. Filed for an ip on in the u. S. Cog any zen things to increase tech sending in europe. Elsewhere convince again a mix of internet and high growth names, tesla shares lower ahead of its earnings report. Priceline also getting set to report, shares lower on the day, though traders say that upbeat earnings could reset the way these stocks are perceived. Lastly whole foods getting hit on disappointing earnings. Bmo, sterne agee, jeffries all downgrading shares of whole food, the main concerns being strong competition and how that will impact future profitability. Down almost 20 . Thank you very much, seema. Lets get a market flash with sheila. Seema just mentioned whole foods, but check out the Ripple Effect it is having, so three our retail grocers are down in simply. Take a look at sprouts farmers, fresh market and fairway, all getting hit. By the way, dont forget that sprouts is out with earnings after the bell, but nonetheless a very tough day for these Retail Grocery stocks. Sue . Sheila, thank you. Lets get the trading action. Mary thompson, beautiful in her green, and its a green day. At least for the dow and s p 500. You know what were seeing today, sue is a little higher than average volume here at the big board as investors are looking focusing in on a couple things, first of all buying stocks that have proven earnings and proven dividends this after janet yellen said shes expecting for us to stay in a low rate environment for the foreseeable future. Look at the groups that are leading the s p 500 higher today. Telecom and utilities, of course different paying groups there, as well as the financials having a nice bounce back. Theyve been under a ton of pressure lately, trading below their 200day, today looking a bit better. Also strong today the in sector. Good news, good Earnings Results from devin energy as well as chesapeake, and thats given a lift to the rest of the use. Natural gas stocks performs well. And then the gamers are on fire. Veld i dont games, Electronics Art and activision, coming in with stronger than expected results. Again, when you beat, the mark will reward you. Thats really the stock they have taken to the woodshed as art cashin would say, right . See you later, mary. Breaking news in the bond market, its a tenyear note auction, Rick Santelli is tracking the acts. 24 billion of tenyear notes were just released to the public and investors hands. The agreed to b as in boy. I could have given it a smidge more, but lets go through the internals. The yield 6. 12, at auction since june of last year, all the metrics, bid to cover 2. 63 is pretty close to ten auction average. And the dreck is at 21. 6, a bit above auction average 689 you get the point. Everything was a bit better, but what i really like about this auction is dealers only took 29. 1 , which means the bulk of this auction, 70 , is in the hands of dealers, and janet yellen being santa claus after ben bernanke retired his beard, stocks up and yields up. So it continues. Whether its a short squeeze, a statement about the economy, all of the above, one thing i dont think we can pin it on is geopolitics, because it certainty doesnt look like theres anything significant on the there today thats different from the last several. Tyler, back to you. Thank you very much, rick. Janet yellen giving wall street and washington her vision of the economy, and Steve Liesman has the highlights. She told the joint committee that it was transitory and mostly weatherrelated. She said she sees a rebound occurring in spending and in production, but she sounded concerned over housing, pointing to it as a Major Economic risk, along with growing tensions overseas. Heres whats behind her optimism for the rest of the year. Less fiscal restraint, gains in home prices and equities leading to a wealth effect, and increasing confidence among businesses and consumers. Yellen gave no hints that rates would rise, already believed in the decline several times to put a time frame on considerable period. Remember he spooked markets back in march. She defined considerable period that the fed would wait from the end of qe to the first rate hike, six months. Now a lot of the q a dealt with weather. They are bubbles in stock markets. Valuations are in historically normal ranges. Now Interest Rates, longterm Interest Rates are low, and that is one of the factors that feeds into equity market valuations. So there is that linkage. So there are pockets where we could potential see misvaluations and smaller cap stocks, but overall those brought metrics dont suggest that we are in obviously bubble territory. Another pocket where she accepted some bubbles could exist is highyield debt, but overall she said the Financial System did not appear to be overleveraged and talked about higher capital ratios in the banks. Steve, thank you very much. Sue, down to you. Perfect segue. Were questioning whether janet yellen giving the green light by say theres no market bubble. Joe is with us, Global Market strategist, and steve auff, at federated investors. Steve, you have a year end target of 2100 for the s p 500, and ms. Yellen is saying she doesnt see the broad market in bubble territory. Maybe a pocket here or there, so that seems to be a green light. Is it . I think it is. We think the fed will be very friendly here, and thats good, almost like earnings go to to on the s p by the end of this year. Youve got a fed on hold at very, very low rates. I think it is the kind of green light for equities. What do you think, joe . Do you agree with that . General . I agree in general, but we see more up side here. I do think we need to temper expectations. I think were looking at future gains coming from the u. S. Equities really to be limited by Earnings Growth and some dividends. I dont think youre necessarily going to see a lot of multiple expansion. Having said that, i think theres up side here. The thing thats a conundrum to people that i talk to down here is the tenyear note going below the 2. 6 level. Maybe thats a bit of geopolitical fear, steve, but is it signaling something that we dont see right now in the stock market . The bond market and stock market seem to be telling slightly different stories. I dont know. Theres all reasons for demand for the tenyear note outside the u. S. Thats probably driving it down. I think its a bit of a conundrum, but if i look at it long term. We think the tenyear is heading up to 4. 5 , so i would be a seller down here of the tenyear at 2. 6. I dont know when thats going to happen. I know theres technical factors causing it to drop low, but i dont see a recession in the cards. The yield kiffin is positively sloped, unemployment is still high. A lot of capacity in the economy here. It just doesnt feel like anything that you normally would see entering a kind of recession. Youve got a fed very accommodate i have been. So im going to ask both of you where you would put money to work, if you see some up side to the market, would you go somewhere else globally, or balance it out in some way . I think as we look at the Capital Markets around the world, i would agree that rates more likely to go up than go down, so we continue to favor the equity markets. Within the equity markets i see more up side. I think well deal with some headwinds, and how that affects certain countries in the e. M. , within the developed market, while we continue to remain construct i have been, i think theres more up side in europe. Youve got Revenue Growth starting to pick up i think in europe, of course youve got profits margins starting to pick up, ultimately i look at europe and say theres few innings behind where the u. S. Was. What about you, steve . I think well stay a few innings ahead of europe. Europe is okay. We have investments there, but i think were entering a cyclical upsurge, so i want to own u. S. Cyclicals. I think theyll participate most in the economic updraft. We Like Companies in nonresidential construction, in the housing space, you know, industrials, the manufacturing renaissance. We think thats really where the earnings leverage is right now in the global stock market. All right. Thank you both. Well leave it there. So two green lights for you. Ty, up to you. Sue, thank you. Chinese ecommerce giant alibaba planning to go bub, setting the stage for what could be the biggest ipo in u. S. History. Kayla . Ty, alibaba says its planning to raise 1 billion, but thats just a placeholder used to calculate registration fees. It could raise upwards of 16 billion which could make it the biggest tech ipo in history. Yaw hoar required to sell a third of its holdings in the deal. The filing only detailed the top stakeholder soft 2k7 bank founder, and kreismt off joe tsai, but its expected that others may as wall street additions into the probably the most impressive thing they are see is the 48 operating margins on the revenues that alibaba made last year, meaning when you look at those numbers, google, ebay, amazon may have had highers sales, but alibaba is more profitable. That along with the 5. 2 billion in Free Cash Flow has investors salivating even in a market where support for these socalled momentum names is winning. Amazon at 137 million market cap, thats 43 times amazons Free Cash Flow. If you pin that multiwall to alibaba, that company would be worth 223 billion. Its important to price it conservatively so as not to spook the market. It will be a juggernaut when it becomes, well get a date that it will go public and the allimportant price, but certainly, ty, a lot to work with in the 300plus pages weve gotten in the last day. Kayla, thank you very much. Lets bring in rbc analyst mark me henny, who covers yahoo. Yahoo has a very good stake in alibaba. What do investors in yaw hoon need to know about alibaba. Once thing that yahoo shareholders will going to want to know is what is yahoo going to do with the proceeds . Whatever its priced all clearly there would be a lot of cash raised. So shareholders want to know what percentage will be returned to them and what percentage will go for operating expenses and for future acquisitions, probably the singlemost important issue. What is their Tax Liability . Do you know . Yahoos, that is. Pretty high. Jerry yang is probably the is thisle best investor in internet land in the five 15 years. This el into ultimate in as an extremely low valuations versus what is reported to be todays valuation, so yes, significant tax liabilities associated with it. Lets move to some of the stocks you follow, most especially in the social media area, like twitter, facebook, you have an underperform on groupon, but lets talk a bit about twitter and whats been happening to it. Has it been unfairly battered . Do you like it at this price . Are you considering changing . I believe you have a buy on it. We do have a buy on it. Weve had a buy on it from 70 down here to the low 30s. So we have missed and been incredible on the last move in the stock. Its a Speculative Buy for us, but well stick with it. The reason is we think the Business Model has proven, if you apply facebook levels of monetization and margins, levels of profitable to this Business Model, you can see your way to 3 to 4. Thats assuming they execute well, but if they do, this stock will not stay in the so we like it long. We still nine out of the ten days prefer facebook, but well still keep a buy on twitter. If you had to put money into one or the other, you say facebook. Why are you down on groupon . Groupon is going through a Business Model transition. Theyre trying to break out of the local daily deals business into the goods business. Maybe theyll succeed in doing this, but thats an awfully competitive field. You mentioned one company thats going public in that field, amazon and ebay. Youre going unagainst entrenched competitors. It will cost a lot of money to make this transition. Theyre already talking about its taking longer than they thought. I think its a questionable strategy on their part, and in the meantime theyve got very little cash flow or Earnings Growth and it still trades at a bit of a premium valuation. Mark, thank you very much big with us. Theres russia, nigeria and venezuela. Michelle carusocabrera is monitoring those flash points for us. We have the map ready to go to explain exactly whats going on and how they might impact the market, sue. All that and more when power lunch continues after this break. The competition tomorrow requires challenging your Business Inside and out today. At cognizant, we help forwardlooking Companies Run better and run different to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. So if youre ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say lets get to work. Because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. Whoyour boss . Rk for . Yourself . Your parents . Your family . At baird, what matters most to you. Matters most to us. As an Employee Owned firm, our Financial Advisors have the freedom and resources to realize a plan to fit your familys unique needs. Well listen. Well talk. Well plan. Baird. What is this place . Where are we . This is where we bring together reliably fast internet and the best in entertainment. We call it the x1 entertainment operating system. It looks like the future we must have encountered a temporal vortex. Further analytics are necessary. Beam us up. Thats my phone. Hey. [ female announcer ] the x1 entertainment operating system. Only from xfinity. Tv and internet together like never before. Welcome back to polypowell, where we are watching shares of king digital. That stock getting slammed despite posting better than expected results. Investors remain concerned about the overreliance on the most successful candy crush game, which does count for about two thirds of its current bookings. Tyler . Sheila, thank you very much. Three big stories we are watching around the world today. Michelle carusocabrera is here. Lets start with russia. President putin changing his tune a bit, now hes ready to have a bit of a dialogue. He says hes pulling some troops back from the border with ukraine. What do we know . All of this is being interpreted as him trying to calm down the situation in Eastern Ukraine and perhaps fend off any coming sanctions that might have occurred. Ahead of whats expected to be a very violent weekend buff a referendum that he said shouldnt happen and because of a big holiday. They were so works that the russian market was clearly worried it would trigger the sanctions that was talked about on friday, if they destabilize eye crane too much, they cant hold the elections, there would be level 3 sanctions. May 25th is the election day, but if the eastern half of the country is completely embroiled, how do you have a credible election . 6 in a nanoseconds for the russian market, and then the russian ruble rallied dramatically. This is a oneday chart. The blue part is the dollar. So they saw this as wow, dleg if hes walking it back, merkel has an out to say, see . She doesnt necessarily want to do sanctions as much as eu does. Its been several weeks that school girls were captured by boko haram. The u. S. Department is sending in help to try to find the girls. In particular the other issue at the forefront is starting today is the World Economic forum in nigeria. We all know davos, in the winter time thats the big meeting, but thej little meetings throughout the world. This is where the kidnapping happened up in borno. Thats effectively a lawless region . Units completely lawless. Even though its gotten a lot of headlines there are attacks up there repeatedly for months and months. World Economic Forum in the southern part of the country. Meetings in the middle, all the Oil Companies are in the southern part. We havent soon reaction so much, because all the violence is in the north, and they think the Oil Production isnt affected. Another country that trying to make a lot of oil and yet and now ford says theyre suspending operations. This is amazing and telling. Ford is suspending operation, because thy they cant get the currency they need to buy parts to make the cars in venezuela. Why . Because the government controls who can use dollars, they hand it out. They have have tons and tons of dollars, because they but they blow it. Theyve been spending so much money, so now they hand it out to only the favorite cronies, and feared which didnt make many cars there, because the car is down 76 , because the economy is so bad. Its not a big story, but emblematic of just how bad the situation is in venezuela. Michelle, thank you very much. Whole foods getting crushed today following disappointing earnings. What does that say about the state of the consumers . Well talk about that plus coming up a condiment competition. A startup battling for space in your fridge and your dinner place. It is no longer the 1980s when the Reagan Administration decided that ketchup was a vegetable. But can it catch up to leading brands . Are you in or are you out on si

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