Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20141230 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch December 30, 2014

How low might oil go in 2015. Tyler is off today. Simon joins me. We have a developing story that we are watching closely this hour. Let me take you live to moscow where it is early evening, about 7 00 there. Thousands of people are rallying in an unsanctioned protest. One of the main opposition leaders in russia was this morning convicted of Money Laundering although he was released on bail. His brother was convicted on the same charges and imprisoned for 3 1 2 years. As he left that courthouse he called for protests across russia this evening. The critic was under house arrest. He intended to attend the rally. Protests of this nature are unusual and it is not sanctioned by the state. These scenes are flanked by riot police. It is quite tense. We will keep people informed of exactly what happens cht they have warned people that it is an unsanctioned demonstration and without a permit they are not allowed to be there. You will be aware of the background with the russian economy in some crisis. This is quite serious potentially. And the state department putting out a statement saying that the move against the protesters and also the jailing of the brothers or one of them is designed to tamp down social activism and protests. And they are watching that situation very very carefully. Let me read to you what was said. This is the most contentable and disgusting part. We are seeing authorities trying to destroy this and put them away. We understood they would do this. Remember the kremlin has used the courts in the past. The most powerful of all business men, he owned one of the major oil giants there was put away on trumped up charges. He has left having been pardoned by Vladimir Putin and sits in switzerland suggesting he would be happy to come in were he to be asked to form opposition. Lets catch you up where we are on the markets. Below 18,000 on the dow. We are down 50 points three major u. S. Averages having the biggest oneday drop in two weeks. We should point out that the volumes today are about a third of what you normally get. I want to point out that while the markets are down a little bit we are seeing a little bit of flight to safety around this russia story. Put up gold and silver stocks. This happens when you get a little bit of global uncertainty. This is a classic flight to safety play. We are seeing gold and silver stocks, all the stocks are on the upside today. That is the market mover. There are a couple of groups continuing to rally on days when there is not a lot of news around. Metals bottomed several weeks ago. These stocks have had a horrible year. U. S. Steel has bottomed. Just had a terrible year. It has been coming off of lows recently. These are the trends you want to watch on a day where it doesnt appear to be news behind these things. The other thing i think you should be watching is bank names. You can own this group called the kre Regional Bank index. This has been rallying quietly for days now. We are at the highest levels since march on this. It is a basket of Regional Banks. What has been rallying are small cap Regional Banks and a couple of large banks here. A couple of names like key corp and bb t. I want to note that people are moving money around here at the end of the year. Some of these etfs and bond funds the vanguard total bond fund, one of the biggest and the bond universe has been very heavy indicating a number of people are reallocating assets here. The tensions in russia pushed the yield below the 2. 2 mark. Nasdaq is down a bit today losing gains for december. Believe it or not it is only about 5 away from the alltime high. A couple that are dragging it down, as well. It is a double edged sword. We have spoken about the two biggest ones. We know Keurig Green Mountain and monster beverage have been wed lived in california. If you take a look at names we often talk about check out some of these ones. Whole foods and ross stores are three names in fairly distinct parts of the market. Lets look at whole foods first. This is an impressive one. Since march of 2000 this stock is up about 870 . This stock has been volatile as of late. It had a rough year. It has come back a little bit here. A nice move higher for whole foods. You are talking about a 1,600 gain just since the peak of the bubble in march of 2000. When it comes to off price retail dress for less ross stores, gain in that staub. These are stocks that are large cap names but arent some of the ones that you get a lot of attention for. Apple, we know apple is up about 2,500 since then. Lets take a look at a couple of the names. We know cisco and intel have been drags. They are still very Large Companies and have done relatively well. Look at microsoft for one. This stock is just about 6 away from achieving its bubble high. Its almost there. Remember oracle just got above its bubble high over this past couple of weeks here. Microsoft is almost there. Texas instruments a different story. Anything that has an analogue chip in it if it is your blender, washing machine has a Texas Instruments chip in it likely. That stock is 40 where it was. That is amazing given its reach. We say the same thing about a lot of names like intel and cisco systems. Names that we talk about as back bone for technology. We cannot do Technology Without using products. Some of them have not regained former glory. Some names to keep an eye on as many analysts and strategists like this large cap tech theme. Microsoft was dead money for some time. All of a sudden it had a big year. The new ceo. A lot of them have dividends. Thanks. Ill see you again in a little bit. Joining us now down here darryl crump, president of Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Senior Vice President at pioneer investments. Good afternoon. If we get back to where the nasdaq was at the boom that is a huge milestone for anybody over 30 35. Absolutely. But that said we still think there is value in the Large Cap Technology space more cash on the Balance Sheet than debt. Most cash of any sectors. Best global foot print and actually an ability to drive and grow earnings probably better than any other sectors in the s p 500. It is interesting because dom pulled out whole foods, act ivision and ross stores. Are they in the nasdaq or the dow . A combination of both but probably more on the dow s p than nasdaq. We like from a secular point of view it is a strong story. And while we may be just back at 2000 levels at prices. One guy thought we would get there quite easily was professor jeremy siegel. He was on squawk box this morning. The guys were asking him whether we thought we would get to 20,000 this year coming on the dow. He says it is a slam dunk. Take a listen. What about next year . You think if you were to give us a round number would it be anything could happen. 10 . You had a lot of conviction last year on 18,000. 20 you seem like a little wishywashy. To fully valued. Valuations. How easy can we rise from here . We can only rise from here if we get the Earnings Growth which we have seen it the last couple of quarters. The last quarter we saw 9 Earnings Growth. I dont expect multiples to expand in 2015. We think the Earnings Growth will be there. Certainly the tail wind of Lower Energy Prices and an operating leverage on Many Companies we think will propel. It is more complicated than that. S p capital iq. Earnings are falling. We are getting down grades for the market overall. So certain parts of the market may do better than others. Where would that leave the tops . The Energy Sector is clearly going to have a hard time producer profit growth. If we look at the economy as a whole the economy will probably have a really good year next year. Depending how far the fed raises Interest Rates if bond yields stay moderate i think there is room for expansion. Usually the stock market gains when the economy is on par with what the fed was doing. Is it possible the stock market disconnects from what the economy is doing and main street does better than wall street . I think that is possible. If we look at markets there is speculative excesses built up up. The unwinding of those could be a head wind for the market. If we look at the fundamentals they look very good to us. Thank you. Oil hitting new lows in the trading session. On the trading day. Many sectors down just a fraction now. Same true of brent. Brent is on track for the second weakest month since the 2008 Global Financial crisis. Prices down 47 since june. How low is oil going to go . Join the conversation. Do you think it is going below 50. You can go to cnbc. Com vote to weigh in. Joining us with his take is chief option strategist. Welcome. Good to see you again. Good to see you, sue. Do you think we will penetrate to the down side the 50 mark . I am a price action guy. Im looking for the reaction to the new lows. We have been waiting for a push below 54. Ten straight sessions. What is interesting here is you are not getting the free fall. So that may be telling me that the sellers are getting a little tired and you may lean on the 50 level as a level to buy. As you go into 2015 in general where do you think prices are going to range . What kind of range are you looking for in the new year . There are a number of things i am also looking at. If you look at the dollar the dollar made new highs and is closing lower today. You are seeing key reversal there. If you also look at gold, gold under this dollar pressure hasnt broken. It is back to the 1,200 level. Gold and crude tend to move somewhat in similar nature because of resource value there. I am looking for crude to find a base somewhere at these levels and looking for 70 or 75 as a mid point of sell off. Once it broke the 90 mid point it was just look out below. As you look at the dollar there are those who say the run is getting a little bit tired, that the strength of the dollar against major currencies is starting to look weaker than it was before. Would you agree with that or not . I dont want to call the top in the dollar just yet. That has been a fools errand. If you look at reaction of gold and crude they havent had a continued sell off when the dollars continue to surge. I think you are seeing a little disconnect there and view that as a positive and i think some of the worst is over in the energy markets. Look at chevron and exxon. They have come back. Thanks so much. Appreciate it. Lets lock in the vote. Is oil heading below 50 and the majority of you say yes, 57 of you compared to 43 . One of the major stories as we count down this year is the air asia situation. The airline confirming debris is from the plane carrying more than 160 passengers. Reporter now that it is official they have found wreckage, debris and bodies from this air asia flight they can figure out how to get the wreckage above the water and how to find black boxes. They will send divers down to a shadowy area and hoping divers will be able to recover first the black boxes so they can figure out what happened to the plane and whether or not weather was a factor. They are looking for potential survivors. They will start tomorrow hoping maybe someone out there was able to hold on to debris someone who could have miraculously could have survived the crash. They have confirmed that it does not look good. Family members learned about this news in the worst possible way watching live tv at the time when bodies were shown floating in the water and many of them broke out in uncontrollable tears and sobs and screams. They will be given a charter flight tomorrow by air asia flying around and given a chance to pray for their loved ones in the last known location of the flight. The search will resume again tomorrow and there is hope until there is none that they will find somebody alive. Back to you. Thank you very much. Tech in 2015 spin offs and splits that you can see from a number of big cap tech names next year. Plus detoxing your portfolio in the new year. Morgan brennan with the stocks that tend to pop and drop. Forget going to the gym and quitting smoking and eating healthier. Check out medical device makers. That is my new years resolution for you. I will explain that and more when power lunch returns. My 2015 wish for housing is better consumer confidence. When buyers feel better about their station in life they buy homes. Ese ally bank ira cds really do sound like a sure thing but im a bit skeptical of sure things. Whys that . Look what daddys got. Ahhhhhhhhhh growth you can count on from the bank where no branches equals great rates. Happy birthday to the king. Lebron james turns 30 today in his 12th season in the nba james won two championships and scored more than 23,000 points. Off the court james is the sixth highest paid nba player with earnings of 72 million. He leads the league in sneaker sales for nike at 300 million and has the top selling nba jersey. Some of his biggest endorsers include nike mcdonalds, kia, cocacola and samsung. As for the schedule the cavs play tonight in atlanta against the hawks. In the meantime for the rest of us some of us say we will eat healthier in the new year some say we workout more often. Only one day left to finalize those new years resolutions. Morgan brennan is taking a look at stocks that best fit the new you in the new year. Why stop at detoxing from all of the holiday partying. We found stocks to help detox your investment portfolio. We teamed up with our data partner and gone through ten years worth of data. And here is what we found. We found the stocks that tend to pop in the first two weeks of january and the stocks that tend to drop in the first two weeks of january. Taking a look at the gainers. Overwhelming across the board medical device makers tend to pop in the beginning of a new calendar year. Names like stryker corporation. Also Edwards Life Sciences and zimmer holdings. Both tend to increase 3 in the beginning of a new calendar year. Other names like baxter and medtronnic do well. These are going to be names, an industry to watch that as we get the republicans taking control of congress and the potential repeal of the medical device tax. Those names will stay in focus. On the flip side the names that tend to drop in the beginning of a new calendar year retail names, names like game stop. Both of those tend to lose about 3 in the first two weeks of january. Also names like the gap and kohls. A lot is tied to holiday sales and earnings coming out. If you have a strong Holiday Season you see stocks run up. When we get the read and the numbers on the data tends to come down. Also telecom tends to sell off in january. Names like century link at t verizon, frontier. These are stocks to check out if you are making you new years resolutions for your investment portfolio. Coming up this year Silicon Valley saw a lot of headline making plans for spinoffs. The question is who is next. Josh lipten is in san jose scoutic out the next headline. Tech giants need to reinvent themselves if they want to stay relevant and profitable. Hewlettpackard, e bay announcing big plans for major splits of companies. Ibm paid 1. 5 billion. What spinouts could happen next year . One possibility microsoft. The ceo is committed to gaining but some analysts say spinning out that unit could make strategic sense for the company. I think Going Forward specifically in 2015 you can see x box spun off as it really becomes a nonstrategic area for microsoft as they have more success on windows 10, cloud mobile and away from pc. Estimates that microsoft still does lose money on x box though he notes that can vary depending on release of new games. Microsoft declining to comment here. Another tech company that could make big changes in 2015 is ibm. Big blue is transitioning out of hardware and into the cloud, data anletics and mobility. Analysts think ibm can sell Semi Conductor Manufacturing Research arm worth billions according to patrick morehead. This year ibm stock is down some 14 . Analysts say ibm needs to shake up the structure and generate more value for shareholders. As we head into the new year we are continuing to break out the 2015 play book. A good Holiday Season for retail. What is ahead for next year. Im certainly not miss cleo but i have thoughts about what might happen. There are economists who think over the next 25 years if we move away from income taxes and towards taxing consumption and energy we can help the environment, help our budget and help encourage economic growth. Tax on carbon would Mean Companies pay for the amount of emissions they produce and means ordinary americans pay for the amount of energy they consume. Allin just a minute Courtney Reagan lays out her predictions for real estate. Lets see how she faired with her picks for the new year. Courtney predicted what we would see in terms of activist investors in teen retail. She was right with Mike Jeffreys getting pushed out earlier this month. American eagle ousted its ceo. Courtney said mall operators and investors would take a hit. She is half right there. Traffic at malls continue to fall but the reits that own them have seen their shares soar. Courtney predicted more shoppers and retailers would turn to outlet malls. It looks like she was right there, as well. So what is courtney predicted for 2015 . Here is a look. Retail saw a lot of changes in 2014. And the head lines wont end when the calendar flips to 2015. Here are three predictions for next year. First, sears stays for now. While sears wont see a resurgeance it will be in business in 2015 though 2016 could be a different story. Majority shareholder and ceo is undertaking various Financial Engineering exercises to squeeze out all of the retailers valuable assets while neglecting the Retail Business itself. He will come out the biggest financial winner in the end anyway. Second csuites will stay empty. More vacancies will crop out. Online shopping mobile and fast fashion have changed how we shop and where we do it finding ceo caliber candidates

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