Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20150113 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch January 13, 2015

How long will it last . And the trouble with twitter. The u. S. Central commands twitter account, as you probably know hacked. Its not the first example. At what point does it make no sense for companies to have twitter . Which ones should stay on it . Well talk about that and more, but, first, lets check in with sue at the new york stock exchange. Hi, sioux. Hi tye. Stocks are surging as we kick off the earnings season. The dow up triple digits about 145 points on the trading session. Make that 147. We were up more than 280 points earlier on this morning. A lot of volatility in oil, and thats one of the factors in this market today. Many others as well and bob pasani joins me on the floor of the nyse to give me some details. We were up more than 200 points and once again, chevron and exxon came in and was a drag on the overall markets, but were Still Holding up pretty well, and tech is having a great day, including down stallworths. Cisco having a great day as well. These are big moves for big market cap tech names, and thats a real leadership group. The problem is this volatility in the energy group. Crude oil is down, but its well off of the lows but were still seeing huge swings in nrl stocks. This is the xop, the Exploration Production etf. Two days. Were seeing swings of 6 or so in the last couple of days and theyre just having trouble settling down. Today refineries are under pressure. Holly and tesoro are under pressure. Gas prices are down more than oil prices. Thats not good news for the refiners. Home builders are moving all over the place. Kb home had a fairly decent report. The problem is look at the drop around 11 30. They hey Conference Call and they said their margin goals would likely not be achieved in 2015. Thats not a good sign. Not only did kb home drop but we saw a lot of the other builders down as well. Thats big drops. A lot of people are saying this is kb home specific. Investors dont seem to be making that much of a distinction. Finally, jamie diamond gave an interview this morning elsewhere, and he said spending on Cyber Security could double in the next two years. All right thank you. See you again in just a little bit. Where are the opportunities in this rally . Bob joins us. He is chief Market Strategist at Boston Private Wealth and adam levy is with jsa capital advisors. For more on the markets, you can also go to power lunch. Cnbc. Com. Welcome, guys. Nice to have you here. Adam, im going to start with you. You say you still believe in this market despite the volatility, and you think this year might be the year that the individual investor finally believes in equities. Well, sue, i do believe that this is the year that more investors do believe in the markets. Weve seen an increase in earnings. I think well likely see that continue throughout the year and even accelerate through the rest of 2015. Were at corporate record earnings at record levels and as a result i think its really because of productivity within the company now. Breaking news. Were going to come right back to our conversation, gentlemen, but first, the bond market its an auction week, and today its the tenyear thats up for auction. How did we do . Oh we didnt do very well. Think yield curve. You know if you are buying the front end because you think that the fed may be delaying the schedule you had in mind a month ago about tightening, you could be selling the long end. I give this auction a d plus. Dog plus. Heres the internals. It was a tenyear or nineyear tenmonth because its a second reopening. The yield at the auction 1. 93. A little over a basis point away from where the when issued market was trading. Big demerits for that. If you look at the bid to cover 2. 61, it was a little light at the ten auction. Average indirects at 50 . A smij better than a ten auction average. 9. 2 on direct. Well below the 15 ten auction average. D plus is what it gets. Maybe more important, actually looking at the results is to consider why investors behaved the way they did, and i cant think of anything other than the yield curve and the fed. Back to you, sue. I think youre probably right about that rick. I really do. Thank you. Well get to you in just a little bit once again. Lets send it over to dominik chu for a quick market flash. Check out whats happening with good year tire. A 2014 is turning out not to be such a good year for the company overall, and in 2015 as well. Look at how its starting. This after it lowered its 2014 Earnings Guidance overall due in part to a stronger dollar and what it said was a more challenging environment in europe in the Fourth Quarter in and of itself. You can see theyre currently down 7 sue, just off of its session lows. Back over to you. All right. Lets continue our market discussion. Don, thank you very much. Bob pavlik, you overall are bullish, and i notice you are looking for returns in the 9 or 10 range. Give me the reasons why you think well performer that well. Well, i think you have to understand where we are. You have an improving economy. You have an Employment Situation that continues to pick up speed. I mean where we were over where we are in 2014 the number of job gains versus 2013 versus 2012, the trend is positive. Youre not seeing a tremendous jump up in earnings but, you know, thats relative to where we were and where were going. We also have some lower initial unemployment lamz. That means fewer people are applying for unemployment benefits. As the year goes forward i think youll get the added benefits of lower Commodity Prices that will help corporations move up on earnings, and its going to help individuals spend more. I think as you partner that all up together, and you partner it up with some of the various concerns that are going on were going to have a choppy year but i do think that overall consumers spending is going to make up for whats being lost in the energy space, and thats going to help lift the market going forward. All right. Adam, where should investors put their money right now given the environment that you both have laid out . I think that the theme now is really in the sectors of technology and health care. Were seeing rapid innovation in those areas and a lot of business spending and growth. Again, i think you stick to the cyclical sectors despite the volatility, and youll find value there. I also like to develop europe. I do think that investors should watch the currency and look to hedge it. Very quickly, bob. Where would you be putting money to work right now . Sure. Consumer discretion earning number one. Technology number two. Financials, number three. Health care number four. You really want to be exposed to the cyclical sectors, the overall economy is going to continue to lift. Again, theres going to be a choppy environment. Concerns about europe, concerns about greece, blah blah blah but overall i think everyone will have a very good year. Thanks bob and adam. Youre welcome. Log on to power lunch. Cnbc. Com for more. Oil continues to be under pressure as weve been reporting all morning. Prices now below 45 a barrel. Earlier hitting sixyear lows. Check out a longer term chart. Pricing differences between wti crude and brent. Now, you see the difference there. Its been narrowing. This is a big deal. Well jackie is going to tell us why. Jackie. Thats right. The last time that we saw brent under wti was july 19th of 2013. It happened for about ten minutes. We didnt see it stay over for a significant period of time since july of 2010. What does it tell us . It tells us that brent is falling out of favor. Economies in europe and asia are slowing and demand is trailing off there. Now, traders also point out to me that wti traded over brent leading up to the financial crisis. At that point brent became the global goto. If we see this reversal wti becomes the global goto, and if we start exporting wti here in the united states, that will strengthen the price even more. Back to you. All right jackie. Thank you. Oil continuing to sink so where is the best place to find opportunity amid those slumping prices and slumping stock prices too, folks . Lets talk to oil experts, carl larry, an oil analyst and president of oil outlooks and opinions, and michael lamott an Oilfields Services analyst and senior managing director at guggenheim securities. Lets start with you. Give us some names and explanations of stocks you think might be worth nibbling at now. Well, you know what were looking at here is an Oil Supply Problem here. When you have supply problems what you are really looking for are places that can stoil oil. Something like enterprise Product Partners probably a good play out there right now. They own a lot of storage. They just bought oil tanking a few months ago, a few weeks ago. I think this is an area where youll see a lot of profits going forward. Cheap oiling means that were going to be packing up as much as we can, and this is a good play right now. I think the refining sector is probably undervalued right now. I think that when you look at the refining sector theres a lot of demand for gasoline and were kind of overlooking that because prices are so low. Were seeing record levels here of gasoline demand. Who do you like among the refiners . I like valero. They have a lot of great operations here in the u. S. They can run heavy. They can run light. Theyre a Solid Company to be part of right now. All right. Michael, lets turn it over to you. You like some of the big sort of drillers, i guess you would call them, in the Oil Field Services company. Why do you like them, and which ones . Thanks, tailor. I think its important to point out that our buys are based on a 12month outlook. The next few months are going to be pretty sloppy but i think we are making a base here in many of these stocks so for investors with the 12 to 18 month time horizon, the big cap stocks in particular, these are good price levels good valuation levels on a good cycle basis to be looking at these names, and over the next 12 to 18 months youll see 20 to 30 up side in these names. Thats what you would like slumberge and halliburton. Because of the pending acquisition of baker hughes buying baker here is a cheap way of getting halliburton a year or so from now. Theres about a 12 spread on the two. Essentially buying baker today is like buying halliburton at 33. Michael carl thank you very much. Quick answers. We appreciate it. Csx kicking off an earnings season later today for the railroad stocks, and lets take a look if we might at csx shares. There you see them down about onethird of a percent on the day today at 33. 80. Plummeting oil prices causing pros and cons for this sector. They carry out and consume it. Hey, tyler. Well, pros and cons is right. Thats why this earnings season will be so important. There are three Major Railroad operators three major ways that railroad operators could feel the effects of Falling Energy prices. Oil shipments. This has been a fast growing business since the fracking crude. Searching more than 2,000 since 2006, and so far those volumes are still increasing. If that changes, keep in mind you can sort of see that here. Its still just a fraction of overall rail traffic. Analysts say that could be offset by volumes in other segments. Number two, cheaper diesel. This is a doubleedged sword. This is one of the top costs of railroad operators, so lower diesel could benefit csxs bottom line in the short run and certainly something to take a look at when they report their earnings after the bell but on the other side of that, lower diesel also makes trucking more competitive, and that could pull some of the intermodel business from road to rail looking at the last graphic. You saw the top, intermodal, huge, huge growth segment for rail. Certainly something to watch. Lastly, natural gas. Thats tumbled as well. Has nothing to do with oil. Has more to do with the weather. Under 3 right now. That could tamp down demand for coal which has rallied. Thats really going to be a head wind since coal is one of the biggest businesses for the railroads. When csx reports after the bell today, all of these factors, all of these Different Energy factors are going to be in focus, and just a programming note on that csx ceo michael ward will be on cnbcs closing bell to discuss all of this later today. Lets toss it down morgan to sue to check in down at the new york stock exchange. Thanks ty. From railroads to shipping and the war of words escalating in the west coast stock workers dispute. Accusations of complete gridlock at the major ports out there. Thats where we find jane welsh, who is in los angeles with the very latest. Hi, jane. Hey, sue. Yeah. Federal mediator working privately with both sides apparently isnt making enough progress to stop the public mud slinging. As you said the Pacific Maritime association or management in this case says west coast ports are on the brink of complete gridlock due to a slowdown by dockworkers. Dockworkers say management admitted in negotiations that congestion is due to operational problems like a lack of space, and in the middle of this truckers at one firm searching of ports have joined the teamsters. Impact on business will warehousers cutting jobs at a paper mildew to the slowdowns in tacoma ports. Thats according to the puget sound business journal. The chelsea Advisory Group says Oxford Industries is concerned about port problems affecting the tommy bahama business. Christopher banks says delays and disrupgs cost the company 3 million to 4 million in sales. Buckingham research is hopeful that bringing in a mediator could mean a contract by mid 2015. There remains a planning risk for the spring stocking period and the National Retail federation says the slowdown threatens the very competitiveness of the west coast ports. Sue. Wow. Jane, thank you very much. Appreciate it. Lets go back up to dominik for a marketplace. Were watching shares of pharma. This after the Biotech Company says its preliminary Fourth Quarter Sales Guidance was better than some analyst estimates here. It also said sales of the only marketed product of a blood cancer drug will target about 1 billion. That doubles last years sales xshgs it also beats consensus analyst shares as a result up by nearly 20 , sue, on the days trade. Back to you. Dom, thank you. Kb home shares sinking more than 10 . The homebuilder says it sdbt expect to reach its 2015 margin goals. Real estate stocks in general starting the year with some big moves. One area up about 7 so far. Diana is in washington d. C. With more on whats fueling that move. Hi diana. Hi sue. Real Estate Investment trusts. These high yield commercial real estate stocks are a big fave. Especially for global investors. Theyve been paying back 100 to their taxable earnings to shareholders, not to mention real estate fundamentals are very solid right now across all commercial sectors. Take a look. As you heard, up 7 yeartodate. Up over 30 from a year ago which has some wonder if anything they might be a tad overheated. Now, i spoke to david at Cantor Fitzgerald who says that everything is perfect for reads right now, but he warns if Interest Rates start to rise rates suddenly become less attractive despite their solid fundamentals. Still, others argue those fundamentals mainly rising Real Estate Property values can actually wle an Interest Rate rise. Professor sam says investors have to be far more discerning though, about specific sectors and companies. Take, for example, apartments. They were the top performers in 2014. Up over 40 for the year. A lot of new supply is coming online this year and that could hit apartment property values. Warehouse was big in 2013. Not so much last year. Offices, though a better bet as there has not been so much new supply and vacancies are finally starting to fall. We have so much more online on this subject. Realty check. Cnbc. Com. Diana, thanks very much. Earnings season is underway so which stocks are going to help and hurt with Earnings Growth . Dominik chu knows. Dom. Modest growth expected. Two stocks in particular in the s p are expected to drive the bulk of earnings per share growth. Well have those names and which ones are the biggest drags coming up next after the break on power lunch. Keep it right here financial noise financial noise financial noise ive been called a control freak. I like to think of myself as more of a control. Enthusiast. Mmm, a perfect 177degrees. And thats why this road warrior rents from national. I can bypass the counter and go straight to my car. And i dont have to talk to any humans, unless i want to. And i dont. And national lets me choose any car in the aisle. Control. Its so, whats the word . Sexy. Go national. Go like a pro. Time for headlines. Amazon shares are surging. Citi upgrading the giant to a buy. Secondly amazon hiring woody allen to write and direct his first tv series ever. Hilton hotels upgraded outperform from market perform at wells fargo. Wells pointing to a number of potential positives, including the possibility of a real estate spinoff. Best buy upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs saying it sees a 15 upside for the stock and a surge in sales in hightech tv sets. Ty. Sue, thank you very much. Earnings season underway the most impact on overought profit growth. Which stocks should you watch . Dominik chu breaking it down . We had a guest on yesterday. You said if you take out the energy companies, the earnings season might not look so bad . It may not look so bad. Heres the reason why. Jonathan and his team of strategists over at Rbc Capital Markets took a bottoms up. They looked through all the corporate fundamentals and figured out theyre looking for about 4. 5 earnings per share growth in the s p for the fourth yaurt. How does it all break down . Thats the real question. Well lets go with the bad news first. The biggest drag, like you said energy, right . We looked at the top or bottom five if you will. Jonathan and his team sa

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