Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20150406 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch April 6, 2015

Trust up 1. 50 today. 156 million paycheck. Well, thats for one ceo. The stock, however, down 23 in a year. Mandy is out today, but kayla is with us. Im excited to be holding down the ford today. We will, however, start with the markets as always. All major averages went into positive territory by just about 30 minutes into trading. The s p up by about 18 points. Thats good for just shy of 1 . Nasdaq up as well. Threequarters of 1 . The russell 2000 which is actually the closest to any of any major average too its alltime high. Its half a percent away from that alltime high sitting right now at 12 61. Bob is here on the floor with me. Bob, pretty interesting day. Especially given what we saw on the jobs report on friday. Strange day. Futures were no help at all to us. Preopen. Use usually we look at them for guidance. We were 2,044. Yet, we move straight up at the open. Were at the highs of the day. Thag that was no help at all. Dudley helped the new york fed, mr. Dudley talking this morning at 8 30. Had dovish comments. Then we had the strong ism services. Its good news. Its bad news. The bulls organized and the economy isnt really as weak. Maybe its some of the february numbers. They get it both ways. Bad news is good news. Good news is good news. The metals are having a great day. Gold stocks are up. Even the base metal names. Now, alcoa that reports on wednesday is to the up side. We did have disappointing news that mtv will not be able to close that deal with hudson city. Still regulators looking at it. Thats weighing on the group too. I think also just the overall concern about a flattish yield curve isnt helping them at all. Theyve been stalling for a while now. Bank earnings kick off next week. Were going to talk about earnings in general a little bit in the next half hour. Ill have comments on what i think analysts are seeing on the earnings, and its a little bit on the worrisome side. They really really overshot on the down side this time. Bob, well see you in a bit. Bob on the floor. Lets take a look at the qs. The etf tracking the nasdaq 100, which right now if you take a look inside that index its down by its up rather by about 1 . Inside that index here is whats moving. Tesla for one up big on record deliveries in q1. That stock up 8 on data over the weekend. Mattel having a big dale dave on an analyst upgrade. That stock up by 5. 25 . Shares of sandisk leading the chip sector to the up side. Priceline is another big winner. That stock is up by about just 2. 25 . Its good for about threequarters of 1 gain on the market today. Here are some of the big winners in biotechs. Exelixi. If you look at that chart, it is all green today. Lots of gens in there, kayla, thank very much. The president of the new york fed, bill dudley spoke this morning. He is the first big fed guy to speak since last fridays less than stellar jobs report for which Steve Liesman was here. Working on friday on good friday. Its going to be important to determine the softness, whether that foreshadows a more substantial slowing in the labor force than i currently anticipate. The march labor Market Report is another indicator that the First Quarter is likely to be quite weak. It could lead to further decline in investment and it could mean a meaningful drag on economic growth. Dudley gave no explicit hit on how the weak jobs report would affect his outlook on when the fed should first hike rates. The first time in nine years. Except if it persists it persists, it would clearly push out the date. As it is he repeated the mantra, the fed is both data dependent and the rate hikes once they start should be shallow. Middle eastern slope on the increase there. Wall street economists mixed in their reaction to how the jobs report affects fed policy. Theres two more jobs reports between now and june. Now, there was, as bob said enough heat report on the Service Sector suggesting that not all the data is soft. They moved up after the open and maybe after that isi report. Lets bring in our cnbc contributor John Rutledge chief investment strategist. John, good to have you with us. Do you see it the way do you see it the way mr. Dudley sees it . In other words, that the dollar is going to be a significant drag on the u. S. Economy or just the excuse du jour for multinationals that dont quite make their numbers . I dont know about you, but im tired of federal open mouth operations where we should have had a down day. Dudley opens his mouth. The markets make me think they practice their speeches in the mirror to see how the market is going to react ahead of time. The longterm trend looks good. Shortterm not so good. I think its more interesting now to make bets in the euro area than it is in the u. S. Just for a while. The German Market is up some 23 . If you shorted the euro, put most of that in your pocket right now because the u. S. Growth is rather weak you want to not short the euro and just own the german or the spanish market, but, again, the u. S. Is growing faster on trend than the euro and will continue to do so so i think this will reverse after the next month or so. When i think of you, john i often think of china. Whats your take there right now . Well the central bank is strongly concerned with the slowing of the economy and doing things to put liquidity in the market. Thats why the Chinese Markets have been up so strong recently. Emerging markets as a whole, not so good because as the eventually the fed raises Interest Rates. It will hurt them, and theyre already experiencing big capital outflows because of the anticipation of that. John always a pleasure to be with you. We appreciate it. Thank you. Nice to see you. John rutledge. Kayla. Thanks. Lets take a look at gld, which is the its down 25 in the last two years, but in just the last month it is starting to show some life. Its up about 4. 5 today. Its up another 1. 5 . Todd trades gold in chicago for amberzino brothers. Gold is such an emotionally driven asset lass. Oftentimes when you feel like you should be buying tshg its the worst time to buy it from an investment standpoint. Where are we right now . Well kayla, i think right now what were seeing is a little bit of affect effect from the big move that started in 2011 and 2012. We saw that huge gold selloff. If the fed sfwoendz raise rates, the bond should remain strong, and yielding should be more attractive than gold. I dont think thats the case here, and i think the fed is only one piece of the puzzle when it comes to gold pricing, and if you look at the volatility of gold which is very low, prices which have bounced off a recent double bottom, i think gold is a big buy here with all that you dont know about what the fed is doing, what you dont know about whats going on in the middle east, and as a buy and hold instrument, i think it still has a lot of value. Theres still a lot, todd as you mention, we dont know and oftentimes investors buy gold to fight inflation. When you look at yields in the u. S. And stocks at their highs, i think right now youre saying maybe we should put money away where we know it will be when we want to come back to it in six to eight months. I think the price appreciation over the next quarter or so when the fed likely doesnt move rates will hecht you. If investors at home want to buy gold, how do they do it . I think you look at the gld. The etf is the easiest way for investors to get involved. I think you buy and hold it. You put it in your safe. There are several ways to do this, but i think you want to be general and keep it macroand be looking for opportunities to buy on dips like we saw about a month ago ahead of the fed meeting. Well check back in with you and see if this trade plays out. Todd coleman. Kayla, thank you. Throughout power lunch today were going to look at three sectors to keep an eye on. On deck the utilities. Something that could electrify your portfolio or zap it. Here to date the vpu, the van garde utilities etf is down 3. 6 . Well be back to talk utilities on power lunch in two minutes. E financial noise financial noise financial noise thats the biggest total ever bringing its total to an alltime high over 10,000. Take a look at the shaerz. Up 1. 9 . Tyler, back to you. Thank you very much. If you missed the Lunar Eclipse on saturday because maybe you were sleeping we thought we maybe could give you another chance to look at. It comes from the Griffith Observatory in los angeles. The total eclipse lasted five minutes. It was the shortest eclipse of the century. The century is not very old yet. Some refer to it as a blood moon because the moon as you can see right there, kayla, glows red. The next blood moon is set to appear on september 28th. We can set our alarms ty. Lets check some headlines at this hour. Shares of microsoft may be down 10 in three months, but up today up by about 2 nearly 3 after the company got an upgrade from wells fargo. Wells upgrading microsoft from market perform to outperform saying the currently has already reflected in the stock and now is the time to buy. Elsewhere in tech ibm hiring a team of advisors to fight back against possible activist investors. Shares of ibm right now are up by 1. 25 . They are down 22 in the last two years. Last were tv the worst performing stock on the dow, and ibm has had 11 straight quarters of declining revenue. Something that is on their radar as activists. Toyota right now in trade is up by about. 75 . Shares up 26 in the last year. The japanese carmaker ending its plant expansion freeze planning to spend 1. 3 billion as it builds two new plants in mexico and in chooirn. Tyler. All right kayla. Utilities down about 4 yeartodate, and one of the worst performing sectors this year. Can utilities turn around in the Second Quarter . It gave us nice back drop. I think coming into the new year, january, had a lot of enthusiasm for the stocks. Mostly on hopes rates would continue to fall when we saw that reversal hit in february. They put a lot of pressure on the stocks. Kind of defaulting to the old adage of sell utilities at Interest Rates rise. Even if that might not be the right approach to the sector at this point. Thats how dan explains it. Mark, how do you explain the poor performance so far this year for utilities and dan points to that old adage that when Interest Rates rise utilities ought to be out of your portfolio. Do you agree with that or is this time different because the rate and magnitude of whatever rate rises there will be are going to be so so small. Well i think you hit on Something Interesting there, which is that we are on somewhat unprecedented territory. However, i think we do share the view that theres a lot of down side risk for utilities coming into january this month. The morning star utilities index was trading about 10 above where we see fair values. Were not terribly surprised to see this reaction in the market. Again, we think thats not really driven exactly by fed hike pressure from a potential fed height hike but thats definitely a risk. People view these things as fixed income it mark as we move to the Second Quarter and the rest of the year quickly, is this a sector that you would underweight, minimize eliminate . Well when we look at the fully regulated utilities, absolutely. I think we see that broader sector still trading 8 bottom of. There are a couple of exceptions. Okay. So dan, let me get in one last question to you. Do you see it that way, or are there targets of opportunity for the sector that you like . Well i think we can approach it two ways. From an asset class perspective, i think theres some attraction still to regulated utilities at this point. I think theres reason to be here. On a more near term catalyst perspective, First Quarter results for the group should be quite strong. Power demand is going to come out better than people had expected. Power prices are ending up stronger than folks were looking for. Gold is about to close for the day. Right now gold is up by about 17. Up 1. 5 . We will hit the pits and get you that close coming up next. Check on the yield on the tenyear. Lets take a look at it right now. 1. 9 , of course, sent tumbling by that dismal jobs report on friday. You wont want to miss rick santellis bond report coming up next. Speaking of the tenyear Mortgage Rates still super low. The rules of the game have changed dramatically. Diana ohlich is live in washington with that story. Diana. Well kayla, a lot of folks are still crying tight credit. How tight . Well put a big number on it coming up next on power lunch. Ed one million Business Owners get started. Visit legalzoom today for the legal help you need to start and run your business. Legalzoom. Legal help is here. Iful it is. Honey, we need to talk. We do . I took the trash out. I know. And thank you so much for that. I think we should get a Medicare Supplement insurance plan. Right now . 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All right. Thank you. New report out shows just how many fewer mortgages were issued due to tight credit from 2009 to 2013. Diana live with the details from washington. Hi, di. Hi ty. A staggering number. Four million fewer borrowers would have qualified for loans between 2009 and 2013 if you use mortgage credit standards not from the housing bubble but from 2001 which was a relatively conservative time in the mortgage market. Thats according it a new study from urban institute. Take a look if you will. Average scores needed to get a len today are still far higher than they were even in 2001. Less than 40 of todays borrowers have fico scores below 720. Not to mention, that all loans now need to be fully documented chshgs makes things harder for small Business Owners or those who are selfemployed. Now, researchers at urban point to banks being extra cautious afraid theyll be forced buy back loans that go bad. Theyre going kind of beyond the normal underwriting guidelines. They have big fears of litigation. This report has actually sparked some argument after posted on the twitter some lenders say its not the fiberingo score. Its the fact that income is lower than its been in a long time. Gold prices closing right now. Up 1. 5 . That is on the back of thoughts that maybe a rate hike is off the table for now. Some dovish comments from fed officials this morning and elsewhere in the commodities market. Take a look at silver. Up by 2. 25 . Copper is down slightly. Rick tracking all the action at the cme. Thanks kayla. Indeed weak number on friday. Dovish fed talk on monday. Triple digit gains as we speak. Look at a twoday of fives. Theyre now up five. Look at a twoday of tens. Up six. Look at a twoday of 30s. Up eight. The lesson to be learned here is that you can see curves steepening, but why is it steepening . Its steepening because equities have righted themselves. Much of europe is closed. The important thing to walk away is short maturity rates are going up slower. Theres your fed implication. Moving to the gold post and the notion that the data is slipping a bit and, well for now theyre data dependent. Lets look at a chart that combines the s ps and tenyear note yields. You can clearly see that when the equity market started to move up after being negative the tenyear note yields turned around, as did the entire curve to some extent. The big question, are we about to see a big decline . If we do will stocks follow . If they follow and drop is it a buying opportunity . All of those questions will be asked and answered next on power lunch. Im Courtney Reagan and heres your cnbc news update this hour. Commandos freed a dutch hostage held by Al Qaedalinked militants in mali since 2011. He was on vacation with his wife who managed to escape. He was freed in a predawn raid. He was safe and in good condition. The Company Planning to offer 6. 5 million shares between 17 and 19 a share. Virtu sells high Speed Computers to sell stocks and bonds. It delayed its which criticized high speed trading firms. Expected to sell the ring for 7 million, but it only fetched 5. 4 million below its reserve. And princ

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