Dollar man Richard Madigan what hes putting to work in the Fourth Quarter. And a big hurricane heading to the east coast of the united states. It will certainly bring some rain to the ooebs coast over the next few days. First though, lets check in with mandy at the nyse. Hi. Hi there, tyler. It may be very wet and very sort of gloomy and gray out there on wall street but we have a mini rally going on. Stocks are definitely losing steam though. We might be up by triple digits on the dow, but were well off the highs of the day. We were up 248 appointments at the high. Now up by 110. As for the s p, its gaining by 16 points. The nasdaq also in the green. Lets get more with our good friend bob pisani back from laguna beach. Lucky you. A wonderful time out there. Come back to a hurricane. Is this a worry, sell into rallies mentality thats going on here . Or is there Something Else at play . We had great steam going into the european close and have lost it ever since. Lets look at the s p 500. Great start to the morning, all ten sectors of the s p were on the upside and as you can see, you cant see the number but right around 11 30 as the european clone, we started losing altitude. We were 3 or 4 to 1 advancing to declining. Now were only 2 to 1. Its moderate to heavy. Slightly to the heavy side. Lets split the difference there. In terms of whats active, not a lot of heavy volume but Health Care Etfs after a terrible close, september has been awful, like the ibb and the pjp, thats getting a lot of interest recently, big pharmaceutical names, merck and pfizer. They have heavy volume today all on the upside. In terms of the month, the quarter, you know what happened here. Its very simple. Bonds outperformed stocks again and whats shocking to me is the russell 2000, the small cap u. S. Focus index performing much worse than the s p 500. I guess the only good news i can offer here, october is usually the month stocks have bottomed in the past. Were into a positive trend. I know dom will address that. Well talk more about whether or not we can find that bottom. Thank you very much, bob. Well check in with you later on. Lets get out to Bertha Coombs at the nasdaq where if we end higher we could avoid our first seven session losing streak since late 2011. Yeah. We are seeing a broad move in tech and health care today with etfs of some of the worst sectors of late, chips and biotechs leading the way higher. Biotech is the only sector with any real strength in trading volume, already having traded a full days volume coming off an eightday losing streak. If biotechs dont reverse again today like we saw yesterday, they will still have been giving up all of the years gain this is month losing nearly 20 for the quarter ending a tenquarter winning streak with the worst quarterly performance since 2002. So a lot of folks not quite ready to determine a bottom there. Of the major indices, the nasdaq 100 is ending on the strongest note and some of the momentum stocks continue to buck the trend. Google and amazon with double digit gains this quarter and Activision Blizzard and graphic chipmaker nvidia gaining more than 20 . Nvidia at a 52week high. Apple today has been either side of unchanged but apple is ending a fivequarter win streak with the biggest quarterly decline its seen since 2013. Thank you very much. We end the Third Quarter in the red. How does the Fourth Quarter usually perform . We know a lot of the mythology, dom chu, about october. A lot of big market events have taken place but the Fourth Quarter seasonal will be has been santa claus rallies, all the seasonal strength up the wazoo but lets break down the numbers for a bit. If you look over the course of the last month to date, down 4 . It hasnt been a good september. If you look at the broader scheme of things, were entering this Fourth Quarter down 7. 5 . For the year. For the year. Yeartodate. The reason why thats important is because lets take a look at the stats. Because when the s p 500 is negative yeartodate, it changes things a little bit for the picture. The s p 500 performance since inception back in the late 1920s, its been negative yeartodate through the end of september 30 times. Its been negative in the Fourth Quarter about a coin toss, 47 of the time. The average 57 of the time since inception. Since 1928. So half the time it is negative. When its negative going into the Fourth Quarter it then becomes negative in the Fourth Quarter half the time and the average return is down 0. 7 . Average return. After a negative yeartodate these are the numbers. It is negative half the time in quarter four. Right. The reason why theres confusion here is because a lot of these stats you will hear seasonably speaking are going to conflict with each other based on the time frames but something to keep in mind as we talk about santa claus rallies and Everything Else thats going to happen in october, november, and december. Thank you. A warning from Christine Lagarde speaking with our own sara eisen about her Global Growth fears and sara joins us live from washington. Hi, mandy, good to see you. Important comments from the head of the imf as it relates to the big Federal ReserveInterest Rate decision. Everyone wants to know what the Global Impact is going to be when the fed raises rates for the first time in nearly a decade. Remember, the imf had been very cautious on this issues putting out a report saying best to wait until 2016 because of the global reverberations. Today Christine Lagarde told me she walked back a little bit on the time frame, didnt say 2016, but did make it very clear that now is not the right time. So i asked if janet yellen does go through with an Interest Rate hike this year, would that be a mistake . I wouldnt say that. Id say that, again, lets make sure it is data dependent. If the data are not telling that story of inflation rising a bit by december, then why do it in december . Because i think chairman yellen was absolutely right to say it should be data dependent, and shes gone into great details to explain what data, how it should be looked at. Were impressed and happy with that. She does not see the data being there to signal an Interest Rate increase. Shes watching emerging markets very carefully, guys. She says theres more pain to come for emerging markets, particularly financial volatility as the world readjusts to a world of higher dollar and higher borrowing rates, particularly sounding the caution alarm on corporate defaults around the world as a result of the uncertainty and the first Federal ReserveInterest Rate hike. Back to you. Thank you very much sara eisen. Hurricane joaquin becoming the third big storm of the 2015 season. This morning the big question is will it make landfall with the east coast of the united states. The weather channels maria larosa is tracking that storm. All eyes are on Hurricane Joaquin. Here is the latest information that we have. Max winds at 80 miles per hour. Its moving to the southwest at 6 miles per hour, and thats important because there you have the bahamas. It is also very low central pressure, 971 millibars. So we may see the winds react to that strengthening and continue to see those winds go up. But right now your hurricane watch is in orange, hurricane warnings in purple. The bahamas need to be on high alert right now. After it makes that southwestern turn and that turn to the north, now were talking about all eyes on the midatlantic and the northeast. So over the next few days it is forecast to strengthen, perhaps a major hurricane as early as saturday morning, and you can see in play here in that cone from Cape Hatteras into new york but all the way into new england. So the next several days and what the models are going to be pulling for Hurricane Joaquin will be very important as far as impacts go across the northeast. Back to you. Okay. Thank you very much, maria larosa. Carl icahn speaking with scott wapner about his market fears saying the joy ride for stocks is over. The joy ride, however, does continue today with the markets higher, well off their highs though. The one stock icahn is still betting on coming up. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Welcome back to power lunch. Im mandy drury at then yse. Goldman sachs downgrading American Airlines to neutral from buy. The firm also cutting its price target to 44 from 48. Its currently at 38 and change and down by over 2 . Hewlettpackard planning a big bond offering to finance the spinoff of hewlettpackard entrer price. The offering is expected to be up to 10 billion in size. And ralph lauren is currently up more than 12 perfection ambassador the ceo announced hes stepping down from the namesake brand. An old navy executive will serve as the new ceo. Old navy is part of gap. Gap getting a downgrade by ubs today on the news of that executives departure over to ralph lauren. Lets get more now with a market flash. Dominic chu, what are you watching . Hudson city bank corp is spiking on news that the fed, the Federal Reserve board, has approved its deal to be acquired by m t bank, two larger Regional Bank players in the east. The purchase of hudson city was originally announced more than three years ago but stalled by the regulatory issues. The deal was valued at 3. 7 billion. Its the longest delayed u. S. Bank deal worth more than 100 million on record. It gets approval. Back over to you. Thank you very much. Carl icahn speaking with scott wapner about whats making him worried about this market. Saying the joy ride for stocks is over. I didnt catch the whole interview. I heard him talking about donald trump but maybe more importantly for our viewers is this call on the market. Well try to give you a taste of what he told me. You got a little bit of a taste of that this week with his danger ahead video where carl icahn lays out a number of issues that are worrying him these days, including fed policy which he thinks has created asset bubbles in things like high yield, in art, and in real estate. Told me before that he thinks that stocks could go down a lot more. When pressed today whether were still in a bull market or whether weve entered a bear market, here is what mr. Icahn said. You could get an up week, an up month here at this moment in time, but, yes, i think the joy ride is over as you see in my cartoon. In my presentation, you know, you could tweet down it on my website, you see the cartoon with janet yellen pushing the bus over the cliff and i think its going to go over the cliff to some extent with the high yields in the etfs. I want to make a point where hes talking about this cartoon, about low Interest Rates having fueled these asset bubbles and in the past hes blamed blackrock in a sense and larry fink. I just say that the blackrock folks have come on our air and larry fink have satisfied along with rick reider and said they think the fed should have raised rates as well. I want to make sure that point is out there and clearly known. We talked about a number of stocks as well as his overall market view as far as apple which he claims is undervalued, is thinking about more. Then we got into some newer positions in energy, commodities, the miner freepo freeportmcmoran when i ask what he see this is a stock like this that has been beaten down . You have to have a certain temperament for that, which i do over the years developed, where youre willing to buy things when theyre down like this, like a freeport, like a commodity company, and be willing to go in and take this as a golden opportunity to buy them because i do believe in three or four years looking ahead, i know im getting hold but this is what ive done all my life, buy them when nobody wants them, when theyre throwing them on the fire, and then put them away and dont worry that they go lower. In fact, be happy they go lower so you can buy more of them. Freeport is that example. Well, he did hint as well that theres probably some activism as you might expect in the near future with a name like freeport. The stock ticking higher as he was making those comments. He also bought shaneer energy. Hes on the opposite side of where jim chanos is. And he endorsed donald trump. Officially endorsed him. Theyre going to get after me for asking this question because were running out of time but the transmission mechanism hes worry being is the idea that too many people who cant make any money on safe savings, cds, savings account, money funds have migrated into risk assets. Not even migrated, have in a sense been pushed. By the fed. The hunt for yield has pushed people in risky areas whether its high yield, whether its real estate, whether its art, and then when they try to get out and theres a run for the door, theres nobody on the other side to take thely quiddity to be there on the other side of the trade and hes concerned about high yield, that enough of the Underlying Companies could default on their debt as happened in the mortgage crisis when people defauthed on their mortgages, right . And hes been advocating his view on high yield for many, many months, including at our delivering alpha conference where you remember the comments that he made there. So its not a new thought. Were just getting what sounds like a more dour carl icahn and his world view of the market, at least where we are right now, not to say that as a longterm investor he doesnt think five to ten years from now stocks are going to be a good investment. Hes not saying that or a bad investment. Scott, thank you very much. Im going to bring in ran insana. Lets pick up where i left off with scott. Is there validity to the point, to icahns point, that in keeping rates so low for so long what some have called like bill gross a war on savers, that people have migrated into assets that are ultimately going to prove troublesome and inappropriate for them. Set aside whatever criticisms he has with blackrock, a purveyor of high field funds and etfs, whatever, but thats the fundamental thing. I dont see how people can be critical of the fed when were living in an abnormal deflationary world. What we learned in the 1930s in the united states, what we learned in japan and are relearning in japan today is policy errors exacerbate recessions and deflationary tendencies. So the fed has been right i think as i have stated many times in keeping Interest Rates low. Does it have the perverse effect of pushing some people into riskier assets . Theres not a lot of retail necessary invested in the stock market. There may be some Retail Investors in high yield. Should point out that 0. 7 of the hyg, that high yield etf, is comprised of mr. Icahns high yield debt so its interesting hes short of an index that has some of his own debt in it. Its benchmarked so its not his choice to put it in there. What i also find interesting is that his stock has gone from a high of nearly 150 down to 66. I would wonder if any activist investor might want to get involved there and agitate for change given how far its come down. He seems to be making money for himself but like mr. Trump, not much for his shareholders at the moment. With respect to his overall outlook, could something go wrong . Absolutely. Will it be precipitated by an extended increase in Federal ReserveInterest Rates . It would as weve seen in other periods. But by itself criticizing the fed for counteracting the impact of a financial crisis that was of great magnitude im not so sure he is doing that but what essay something they kept those rates too low for too long. But we dont know that. Hes talking about companies that have engineered themselves to buy back stock. Hes one of the agitators. Hes one of the financial engineers that Want Companies to lever their Balance Sheet, buy back stock, and raise dividends. I see some issues and conflicts in what hes been saying. And the buy backs take stock out to get the eps out. Which is what he criticized and pushed for at the same time. Mandy. Were doing okay today but its been a tough month and a brutal quarter but it does look like we could still end higher today. So, you know, finishing out a bad quarter on a high note. Is a Fourth Quarter rebound ahead . Well talk about that when power comes back in two. Dont go away. Nice long life a. Big plans. 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