Ownership, its coming down to just one number. Well tell what you it is and what it means. Lets check in with sara at the nyse. High, sara. Good afternoon. Hard to believe just two more months remaining until 2015 is done. Just about 50 trading days left in the year. Are we setting up for presents under the tree or coal in our stockin stockings . Dominic chu is taking a closer look at that question. Dom . Sara, how many times have we talked about seasonality in the markets over our years together here. But lets take a look at this, everyone talks about the santa claus rally and the seasonably strong Fourth Quarter for stocks. Well, lets take a look. Our data partners at kensho crunched the numbers and for the last two months of any year over the last ten years, so november to december returns, the s p is up on average over 1. 5 . The dow the same, and theyve both been positive in 8 of the last 10 instances. A decentsized gain although some would point out because of the strong gains we saw in october, maybe those gains get a little muted going into the last two months like we have this year. However, if youre looking for the stocks that perform the best during that tenyear period for the months of november and december, check out a few of these names. Western digital. Yes, this stock is in storage and yes, these storage stocks are at near 52week lows, still on average Western Digital up 14 over the last two months of the year for the past ten years. Its up 90 of the time. John deere, Agricultural Farm equipment, up 9 on average. Up 100 of the time. 10 out of 10 instances. Advanced auto parts, its been positive 10 of the last 10 novemberdecember periods. As we talk about gains, this is the important part. Seasonably strong but a lot of head wince, chinese economy, u. S. Economy. We could have maybe a little less of a santa claus rally, ty. Back over to you. Thank you very much. October was a strong month for the emerging markets. Lets look right now at the u. S. Markets which are near their highs of the day. There you see the emerging markets. Look at the move over the past month, about 4 . Will those gains continue into the remaining two months of the year . Our seema mody has some clues. Thats right. October has been a winning month for the emerging market bulls. Emerging markets if you take a look at the etf gaining over 4 . Just to put that move into perspective there have been only five occurrences sense the etfs inception when em stocks gained 4 or more in the month of october. But data suggests that the rally may not continue. In november and december, emerging markets trading positive only 40 of the time with an average return of just 1 . So what could hurt emerging markets stocks in the last two months of the year in Td Securities says there are three potential headwinds. First, any negative surprises out of china as we saw in the october pmi number which shows the Manufacturing Sector remains in a tough spod, a renewed drop in commodity prices, and the looming fed rate hike. The markets seem to be discounting the likelihood of a hike this year. Theres a 50 50 chance of a december rate hike. Thats why this friday is important. A strong job reports could mean more chatter of a hike. Thank you very much. Sara, back to you. Getting off to a good start for the bulls. Stocks trading around session highs at this hour. Meantime, the window for the one red hot area of the market is rapidly closing. P bob pisani joins me to talk about that and ipos. I want to hit on todays action. Chinas manufacturing data was poor and normally that means china markets are down, japan is down. That did happen but normally that translates into a bad day for our commodity stocks and thats not happening and its very interesting that its not happening. So look at these commodity names. U. S. Steel will be reporting tomorrow, up 7 . Alcoa, vale, free mort mack more ran. Normally all the oil names would be down, but no. The refiners are up. All of them on the upside. This is a very unusual move moving contrary to china and a hopeful sign maybe these are starting to bottom. Another beaten up group, pharmaceuticals. The last week or so all of them have stopped going down. Im talking about the big names, fizzer, merck, even the biotechs have turned around. Interesting changes from the trends weve seen. The ipo market, the window is closing fast. We have three, maybe four weeks left in the year. Nothing gets done in december and the week of thanksgiving. Were waiting for match, square, Ballast Point brewery. Other the other names, albertsons, neiman marcus, univision, theres a good chance they wont even happen this year. This is not good news for all the other people out there who are waiting to go public in 2016. Keep an eye out for any announcements. Bob pisani, thank you. We have breaking news with phil lebeau. This is news from the epa. Essentially theyre holding a Conference Call announcing that there are new violations they are putting down on volkswagen overall but specifically to both volkswagen as well as audi as well as porsche. These new models that according to the epa violate clean air emissions ever all diesel models. Were talking about the 2014 tour rag, the 2015 cayenne, the 2016 audi a6, a6 quattro, a7 quatt quattro, a8. Press Conference Call has just begun with the epa outlining the violations they are accusing volkswagen of. We will hop on that Conference Call and have more. That adr given up early gains. Thanks. Were also watching shares of chipotle getting smoked. That stock down sharply after the mexican fast food giant closed dozens of its restaurant out west because of an e. Coli outbreak. The stock is down 10 this year. Right now it is down 2 . Jane wells is live in l. A. With the latest. Investors may be selling but the stock is coming back a bit because you have guggenheim with a buy. Suntrust, buy. Piper jaffray, overweight. This as Health Officials in washington and oregon are taking cultures and having patients fill out food questionnaires to figure out the real kauz of why 22 people came down with intestal e intest al e coli. The company temporary shutting down 43 stores in both states, done voluntarily. Chipotle was not ordered to do so. They tell cnbc no cause has been determined yet, and, quote, timing of reopening will be dictated by the progress and pace of the investigation. That is the top priority now. The last meal was approximately a week ago, so its possible that the risk period has passed. Only time will tell. Well know more next week if additional cases dont appear, that will be very good. Were hoping that will be the case. At this point its impossible to say whether the risk is ongoing. Chipotle has had a few incidents in the last year. In Southern California is shut one store down in august when dozens of customers showed symptoms of norovirus and in minneapolis they had a problem with salmonella. Incidents have been linked to fresh vegetables and not undercooked meats. Thank you very much. Very topical story. Shares of valeant rebounding. The pharma giant down 45 over the last month. The short seller is speaking exclusively with scott wapner just moments ago on fast money halftime report. Scott joins us with the lively highlights. What did we learn . It is lively. Investors had been on edge since midday friday when andrew left of citron put out a tweet and said on sunday i will have new allegations or more to the story dirtier than anything reported. We had him on. Here is his report. Citrons last word on valeant. The issue was there was nothing new today with citron saying for those of you expecting a kill shot, you can stop reading here. We will not be releasing new allegations against valeant in this piece as we believe its not our responsibility to be the judge, jury, and executioner of the companys deeds to which some people will say maybe they already have. The stock has lost 60 billion in market cap. Its been cut in half since their very first report came out. Citrons left was on our show and defended his actions. Im not yelling fire in a crowded theater. When Goldman Sachs comes out this morning and says theres too much heat around this company to actually make it investable and there be overhang on it, theyve actually vetted the process i have gone through which is saying theres something really wrong here. Well, for valeants part after they got a view of this new report they said the following. Citron admits in his latest report that it has no substantiation for our allegations against valeant given its last report was filled with demonstrably false statements about our business. We will continue to focus on running our business in an honest and transparent manner and meeting our commitment to the patients who depend on our products and the doctors who recommend them. I also asked left if he did regret making the analogy to enron. Here is what he said about the statement that valeant put out about him a short time ago. Im flattered. Theyve turned me into some character. What am i going to say . I couldnt get my kids off to school today without a fight. I just dont understand how they can they should be more focused on what has happened to them over the past week. They should be more focused on the people who theyre gouging prices of Prescription Medication who need the medication on the future changes in government laws, on their markets, their pbm relationships. And the fact they issue a press release on me. Flattering . I dont know. Its fair to sayhe Citron Research helped shine a light on the valeant business that a lot of investors didnt know enough about. Thats what i heard privately from them. Maybe they should have known more about them. Maybe valeant should have been more forthcoming. Philidor, the contract one of the specialty pharma companies. That was at the center of it and this goes back to when valeant booked sales, correct . Right. That is what it was. Have they, valeant, severed their relationship with philidor . They have along with a number of others. People say, okay, mr. Left and Citron Research shined a light on something that needed to be brightened in the public eye. The question is to some did he go too far in the way hes done it, especially on friday putting out a tweet that promised some mor more explosive information today that sent the stock down 10 only to come out today with the last word on valeant if you were expecting a kill shot, you can stop reading here. Thank you very much. Sara, over to you. Tyler, is the American Housing market turning into the have and have nots . When it comes to Home Ownership in this country, why it may come down to one number. Plus, october was one of the best months on record for the bulls, but hedge funds, not so much. Suffering double digit losses. Why theyre hurting right now. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Plus, october was one of the best months on record for the welcome back to power lunch. Shares of coty are higher. The personal Care Products maker buying the Beauty Products of brazil nfor 1 billion in cash. Tree house foods is taking a hit. Its buying conagra for 2. 7 billion. Tree houses ceo will speak to cnbc tonight on mad money with jim cramer. And visa also under pressure today. The credit card giant missing profit estimates. The company also announcing a 5 billion stock buyback and saying its buying visa europe for about 18 billion. Visas chief Financial Officer will be on the closing bell this afternoon to discuss whats driving that deal. Thats 4 00 p. M. Eastern time on cnbc. For now we go to dominic chu. Were watching shares of priceline. The stock hit a record high in trading today making it worth 74 billion total. The company is expected to report Third Quarter results a week from today. The stock is up 28 so far this year. Its one of those nasdaq companies, tyler, thats really powering some of the gains on the larger cap side of the equation. Thanks very much. Are you looking for a mortgage to buy a new house . You better have a really, really good credit score or chances are you could be left out in the cold. Diana olick has that story. Whats going on, di . Ty, its so interesting that were seeing not only this pristine credit level but so much more lending activity at this level for home buyers. The number of new mortgages made to buy a home are surging as cashheavy investors move out and regular mortgage dependent buyers move in. But theres a growing divide in housing between the haves and the have nots. Purchase mortgage originations surged 15 annually in q2 and are up 11 in q3. In june we saw the largest purchase loan volume in eight years. Its being driven almost entirely by high credit borr borrowers. Only 20 of purchase originations over the last three months were borrowers with Credit Scores below 700. This is the average sacrcredit score, a record of 755. Only five points shy of what mortgage lenders consider the very top tier lowest risk which gets you the best rates. The median fico in the u. S. Is around 720. Fannie mae is instituting a new scoring model that looks more indepth into a borrowers background. The hope being more will be allowed to qualify for a loan but thats a very hifico score going on in the market today. Back to you. So is housing turning into a case of the haves and the have nots . Lets bring in stan humphries, chief economist with zillow. Stan, always great to see you. Good to see you. I think some people might argue this is what ought to happen. In other words, that the higher one of the things that got us into trouble was that too many people with poor credit were being given mortgages. What do you say . Yeah, well, i think in some respect what is were seeing is settling into a new normal. Zillow computes a mortgage accessibility index. Were seeing it to be back to twothirds of the way back to where it was in 2002. Half of what it was in 2005 which arguably was i think by most standards too loose. Were looking at mortgage stoor standards which are like the 1990s standards. It has to do with the credit box. Also skrhave a lot to do with w is above water on their mortgage. The people who are wealthier and more affluent homes are the least likely to be underwater. Those in the bottom onethird of the Housing Market is most likely to be underwater on the mortgage and it makes it hard for them to actually obtain a mortgage because they dont have the equity in the prior home to bring into the new home. React to what stan said but as you closed your prior piece you said fannie mae was looking at standards that may take into account more or give more weight to things other than the credit score so that more people would qualify. Does fannie mae think not enough people are qualifying today, i assume . Well, absolutely. Its what stan was just saying. Not enough people. Only the people who are wealthier who have that equity, who have the great credit line are being able to get the loban at the best rates. Its called trended credit data. It looks further back into how you pay your bills, not just if you have missed a payment or if youre up to date on your credit cards or up to date on your student loan payments. It goes back and gives you more of a trended Credit History in going into that score, but, again, its still going to rely heavily on what that exact number is. When you go to any lender today, whether its a purchase or a refinance, they want that number before theyre willing to give you that best rate. You could have lower credit, but youre going to have to pay mortgage insurance or pay a higher rate. Its going to cost you more. So, stan, if fewer people than in the past can qualify for mortgages, take me through the thinking. What is the implication of that for house prices. If fewer people can buy, doesnt that put downward pressure on house prices or slow the gains . Yeah, it does. What diana is describing, of course, is the fact that weve remained true to whats called riskbased pricing during this recovery. If you want to put 3. 5 down on your mortgage, on your home when you purchase your mortgage, theyre looking for offsetting factors like less debt or a higher credit score. Weve remained truer to that offsetting principle during this recovery than we did during the runup to the last housing cycle where we started to take the checks and balances off and we allowed people with low Credit Scores and a lot of debt to put low down payments and credit risk explodes if thats the case. Generally, if you ask whether were being held back by this, yes, we could sell more homes if we had looser credit standards. Theres no doubt about that, but were sell being 5 million homes a year right now relative to our peak of 7 million homes. I think that many in the industry would like us to wed always like to sell more all things being equal, but theres no free lunch. If youre going to loosen standards, then you do have to worry about increased credit risk in your mortgage forportfo. Thank you very much. Always great to see you. October was one of the best months on record for the bulls. The three major averages soaring about 8 or so, but the big hedge funds got slammed with double digit losses. Well tell you why theyre feeling the pain next on power lunch. You pay your Car Insurance premium like clockwork. Month after month. Year after year. Then one night, you hydroplane into a ditch. Yeah. Surprise. Your Insurance Company tells you to pay up again. Why pay for insurance if you have to pay even more for using it . If you have Liberty Mutual deductible fund™, you could pay no deductible at all. Sign up to immediately lower your deductible by 100. And keep lowering it 100 annually, until its gone. Then continue to earn that 100 every year. Theres no limit to how much you can earn and this savings applies to every vehicle on your policy. Call to learn more. Switch to Liberty Mutual and you could save up to 509. Call Liberty Mutual for a free quote today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. Welcome back to power lunch. Im dominic chu. Were watching avis coming off its best levels today. Barrons says the