Percent or 29 points. Thats where we stand right now on this monday. Well, despite disneys new star wars movie absolutely crushing it over the weekend, crushing all box office records, in fact, the stock keeps on falling. Its down another 1 today. So youre looking at trading since friday, if we can bring up that board as well. There we go. Down from the 112 range to the 106 and change range as we see today. And, mandy, the driver here has been the btig media analyst rich greenfields two cnbc interviews in two days. Watch this. Disneys earnings expectations for fiscal 17 and 18 are simply too high. Were 5 below the street for 2017. 8 below the street for 2018. Bob eyeinger is not being truthful about the ability for espn to go direct. Do you think more than half the households in the u. S. Would say i have to have this. Youre saying hes straight up lying . Were saying hes not being honest with investors. All right. There you have it. Lets bring in martin pyykkonen, Senior Research analyst with rosen blatt securities who has a new note out on disney mai maintaining a buy position with a 130 price target. The crux of the argument that rich greenfield makes is that espn is going to suffer what an awful lot of other sort of Media Properties have suffered, and that is sort of the disaggregation of audience as things break up, whether its a record album or cable subscriptions. Your counter to that is what . Well, first of all, i agree with the point that there are challenges at espn for the reasons he cites. I guess the real difference is i dont take it so far to an extreme of say downgrade the stock, talk about estimates being way too high. I think there are some challenges. I think there is some over the top migration. Everybody is facing that, thats true, but this is not something thats fallen off a cliff by any means. I know some of the things you have had people on, you know, you talk about star wars, will that make up for it in and of itself . If you do the math, it will. That doesnt really comfort an investor because they still want to see espn do well. So i think theres going to be a moderate loss of subscribers and thats that 1 to 2 maybe a year, slower migration over the top, but when you look at disney, this is a portfolio of assets all of which are suging along very well. Obviously the film studio segment, the park segment, the Consumer Products and licensing so i think they make up for that through into 2017 as his points are addressing. Lets talk about what star wars is worth to disney for just a second here. 570 million global opening weekend, and that doesnt even take into account china which opens in about three weeks time. What do you think china will be worth . Well, if you look at china, china is becoming the second Biggest Box Office market in the world and within two or three years probably by one of the last star wars films that comes out in this regime here, it will probably be the biggest in the world. 500 million is huge. I think globally this film is going to do probably close to if not even over 3 billion. I know a lot of people are saying 2 billion but if you just trend this and you allow for the fact that china has not opened, and thats before you even get to the down stream streaming on netflix and other platforms and obviously the merchandising. So 500 million is knocking the ball out of the park and i think this is going to have long legs into the new year. Its bringing in kind of a new audience and its bringing back the old star wars fans, so i think 3 billion tops is in the cards. Martin, you must be concerned i want to come back to the espn thing. You must be concerned, and i sense that you are, and maybe the distinction between you and rich is the pace at which espn and other channels, hey, look, cnbc has a stake in this trend as well. Right. Of people unbundling or unhooking from the package of channels that they get. I mean, do you see it as a real threat to the Revenue Streams not only of disney and espn but of Cable Companies more generally . Well, i think there is a point and i put it in the disney note today and the group i talk about it, there is a question of how quickly these other over the top skinny bundles, et cetera, Revenue Streams make up for the slack and there is where theres a little slippage and, yeah there, is some slippage of that revenue over the next couple years, three years, maybe for years, i just think its a matter of magnitude. In disneys case you have a different situation with a lot of other operating leverage. You have a lot of gears in the car to move forward with. Thats one thats sputtering a little bit. It is challenged in the new media way and people unbundling and young adults in particular. I think its a matter of it being out of whack in terms of the degree of the problem being overweighted too unfairly i think at this point. What do you see as the biggest risk to disneys stock . I dont see a lot of risk to it. I think it will outperform the s p next year as its done this year. Its up above 15 . The market has been flat to slightly down. Youve got the park segment which is really moving along well from a margin standpoint, operating margins are going up across the parks. Youve got shanghai disneyland. Thats going to not be a big profit contributor initially. I think thats going ton t be t big story of fiscal 2017. I think bob iger will make sure shanghai disneyland kicks off right. I think thats going to be the positive story people will talk about next year. Martin, thank you very much, as always, for being with us. Martin pie coyykkonen of rosenb. Lets take a look at the numbers for oil. Brent currently at 36. 29, down by 1. 6 . Wti crude currently sitting down at 34. 44. Were also watching nat gas with prices actually moving higher today but plunging more than 30 this year. Last week nat gas hit lows not seen in more than a decade. If you live out here in the northeast, you would know were seeing unusually warm weather and, of course, that is partly to blame. Forget any hopes of a White Christmas at least here in the east. This Christmas Eve is shaping up to be the warmest on record. Here is the weather channels chris warren. Its hard to believe its almost christmastime when you go outside and feel the temperatures, and its going to get even warmer in the coming days. Lets jump ahead to Christmas Eve right now and take a look at just how many cities are expected to not only meet but break the record high temperature, and you can see all up and down the eastern seaboard. The reason for this ridge of High Pressure is in place and it is going to keep things very warm right into christmas. And this record heat is one for the books in a big way. Look at detroit. The forecast high for wednesday, 62 degrees. That record has been standing since 1893. Well over 100 years. Records are going to fall here in some spots. And going to crush the record on thursday in new york. The forecast high 71. 58 is the standing record in 1982. Certainly not feeling like christmas. This is one holiday to remember because of the warmth. Just amazing. So with warm weather on the horizon at least for the time being, where are Natural Gas Prices going from here . Lets bring in dan leonard, Senior Energy meteorologist with wsi. They call him wall streets weatherman. Dan, welcome. Good to see you. So gas has been down, down, down. Does it go farther or what . Yeah. The traders i talk to, theyre just really not that optimistic. Lets face it, weve had one of the warmest decembers of all time and you just saw chris warren showing those upcoming temps for the holiday weekend. Were going do it again next week i think with another round of 70s for most major u. S. Cities in the eastern part of the country and thats really where your demand is driven from a natural gas perspective. Yeah, its been really cold and snowy in the west but they dont use that much natural gas out there, so you really need to get cold into the east. We havent had it in december and were well on our way to the warmest december on record for a lot of those gas demand cities from chicago and points east. Its really no surprise were at near 15year lows in the price of natural gas. And do you see any catalyst that could make it move higher . Is it all weather driven and obviously the supplies are up . Yeah. Of course, we have big supplies because of all the fracking boom going on over the past couple years, so its really a double whammy here. You have a lot of extra gas on the market and not much demand because its been so warm. Now, we tyme have a pretty decent rally today and the traders i have talked to said its really because going into january there are some signs of a pattern change, at least back to a semblance of normal temps over the eastern half of the country, so if that does happen, and its pretty funny were talking about normal temps being bullish for Natural Gas Prices, but anything but this incredible warmth that we had might be a catalyst to spur Natural Gas Prices higher going forward, but right now it just doesnt look like any signals for any sort of a pattern that we had the past couple of years, the year before, or last year with so much cold in the east. It just doesnt look like that. Let me throw one at you that may be out of your zone. If so just raise your hand and say i dont do that, but im interested in what your view is of weather temperatures and retailing. Last year retailers were campaigning it was too cold and snowy and icy and people couldnt get to the stores. This year they complain that its too warm and people dont want to go to the stores and when they get there, theyre not buying the heavy winter gear that brings some higher margins. What is your thought about that . I would agree with that sentiment. Theres probably a goldilocks pattern for u. S. Retailers where its cold and its sometimes snowy but just not as incredibly cold and snowy as, for example, last year or the year before but not warm and dry like weve had that year at least for the eastern half of the country. Theres probably a nice happy medium in there somewhere. Were not hitting it this year. Theres the retailers that really rely on the business of the cold and snow to drive their product demand, and thats not going to happen this year, but well wait and see what happens. If the second half of the winter turns cold and snowy that can all get wiped out really quickly in the retail space. Dan, thank you very much. Were counting down to christmas, three days to go. A huge chunk of the season sales happen in the days just before christmas. The retailers that stand to cash in from all the slow pokes and procrastinators. Meantime losses for the dow and the s p so far this year. The nasdaq is still higher. As you can see, the dow down 3. 6 yeartodate and this fits stocks that have fallen out of favor with investors. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. With passion. Built my buss but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. Thats why i have the spark cash card from capital one. I earn unlimited 2 cash back on everything i buy for my studio. And that unlimited 2 cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business. Thats huge for my bottom line. Whats in your wallet . And this year, look at whate he put in our driveway. The lexus december to remember sales event is here. Lease the 2016 es350 for 349 a month for 36 months and well make your first months payment. See your lexus dealer. To discover the best shows friends together and movies with xfinitys winter watchlist. Later on, well conspire as we dream by the fire a beautiful sight, were happy tonight watching in a winter watchlist land, watching in a winter watchlist land xfinitys winter watchlist. Watch now with xfinity on demand your home for the best entertainment this Holiday Season. Welcome back to power lunch. Shares of microsoft coming off their lows of the day so far as the market rebounds slightly here. The company was the focus of an article in barrons over the weekend that suggests it could rise 30 over the next year and a half or so helped along by hits Cloud Computing business. Microsoft trying to close out the year with solid gains. So a large cap tech stock that could be a bullish call coming from barrons. Thank you very much, dom. Retailers are feeling the heat during the holiday homestretch this week. A new study finds that 40 of all gift sales are made lastminute with many shoppers waiting for those deeper discounts. Thoughts now from industry analyst mary eppner and charlie oshea. So it really pays to do it last minute, sflit. Absolutely. Talk to me about planned versus unplanned. The planned promotions and those smacking of desperation, i have to just move this stuff off the shelves. In planned, its star wars. People will say is it performing well because its marked down . Thats not the case. They plan for that. Number two, fitness and tech watches and number three, selected sneakers. Unplanned are the ones where the stores are getting desperate. In a nutshell, apparel. There is a tremendous amount of street wear and outer wear and fleece that, no secret, and a few brands in particular that are very hard hit. Like which once . Ralph lauren, michael kors in apparel and handbags, and then there are also fashion watches that are just tanking from last year. Well talk about the brands that are suffering in a second. Exactly, yes. Charlie, you penned a great piece about walmarts heavy spending which might help narrow that online gap with amazon. We joke about how retailers are living in amazons world, but isnt walmart still winning . Yes, they are. If you look at their sales growth over the last four years, walmart is actually ahead. The problem you run into when you look at the two companies is amazon, as big as it is, is still coming off a low base compared to walmart. Walmart is at almost 500 million in revenue. Amazon just cracked 100 million. If you go back farther you see walmart 20 years ago when amazon started was less than 100 billion, has grown 400 million in revenue while amazon has gone from zero to a hundred. We focus more on the dollars rather than the percentage growth. Walmart at 500 billion grows 2 a year, thats 10 billion. Thats a lot of growth in dollars. How do you think amazon is going to respond to walmarts ech efforts to try to narrow the online gap . I think amazon is starting to take some steps where they will do a better job of getting product to customers quicker and have more control over it. One of the things we focused on for a long time and we have been on this for about four years is the last mile. Who controls the last mile . And right now amazon does not control the last mile for many of its customers. Uses u. P. S. , fed ex, the postal service. The brick and mortar guys, including wart mart, best buy, target, controls the last mooil because you can do a buy online, pick up in store, get it whenever you want it and theyre not as reliant on the thirdparty shippers. What are your observations, mary, with walmart versus amazon . Amazon has been so aggressive this season. I get so many emails, promotional emails in my inbox every day. Correct. I think the biggest thing is what is the product that walmart offers and is it compelling . And i think its more compelling in apparel and accessories than it has been before, and in particular in electronics where weve really seen some Enormous Growth in spite of the already Enormous Growth, so i think that walmart stands to pick up there and im with charlie in thinking that they have an opportunity more so than is reflected in whats been said prior to today. So last but not least, which brands are suffering apart from as you talk about the fleeces and the big woolly the sweaters and things we all need for colder weather. Apart from that which brands are suchering . I think one of the biggest categories is costume watches. Fossil brands, timex brands, they are flooding the off price market. Because of the apple watch . Because theres not a lot of newness in the costume watch business, and also a lot of brands or a lot of stores are moving more of their assortment to tech watches for spring and the customers just had enough of these, and so if there isnt newness, theres no reason to buy. So the discounts are more pronounced than expected, and then also again a michael kors, a ralph laure lawyeren the disc are deep. We the customer win. Thank you both of you. Tyler come on in here. I was chilly and i wanted to warm myself by the fire. Nice to have you. You dont mind, do you . No. Did you bring marshmallows . I know im out of the light but i got the nice backward glow from the warm fire. Very nice. Well, check out shares of chipotle and mcdonalds. This year chipotle down more than 20 . Mickey ds up 25 . They dont have a fire like this in their stores at all. Whats next for the food sector next year . We have your playbook next. Very nice. Welcome back to power lunch. Im mandy drury. Shares of tiffany moving higher by 3. 5 . The luxury jewelry retailer upgraded to buy from hold at jeffries with jeffries calling it a rare opportunity to get in at a discount. Tiffany stock, by the way, has lost its sparkle this year down about 30 . Thats a 30 discount, folks. Joy global higher by 2. 5 b . Upgraded to market perform from underperform at fbr noting their cost cutting. The stock is down more than 70 this year. And winnebago moving lower, not hugely, by about 0. 6 . The rvmaker unveiling its new ceo naming michael happ, a 19year veteran from toro. Mandy, shares of u. S. Steel have hitting their highs of the day. Theyre up by around 5. 5 . The company has announced a tentative contract agreement with the United Steel Workers Union covering 18,000 workers. U. S. Steel ceo saying the agreement is in the best interests of the company as well as its employees. It comes at the end of the tough year for a stock, down about 70 yeartodate amid slowing demand and low priced imports. Still right now u. S. Steel is now a billion dollar company. Thank you very much. As 2015 draws to a close, cnbc breaks out the 2016 playbook helping you stay ahead of the trends in the coming year. This hour its food. Here is jane wells. Food, glorious food. Fast, fresh, funky. Here are three trends to watch in the food biz in 2016. First, delicious deliveries. Delivery isnt just for pizza anymore. All kinds of fast food restaurants are utilizing Delivery Services and in 2016 its predicted those choices will expand faster than your burrito belly. Taco bell uses Services Like door dash. Spoon rocket is making their own fast fo