Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20160620 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch June 20, 2016

2,094. We got to get to dominick chu. He has a market flash. Global retail now. Earlier in the past hour we told you the news about walmart taking a 5 stake in jd. Com. Theyre going to swapt businesses a little bit. Walmart giving over the china operations to jd. Com and getting a 5 share. They were up about 8 pat going into that trading halt. They are now up about 8 . So trading just a little bit below where they were when that news first came out. Just call to your attention what is happening. There again, michelle, all of this on that bit of news that walmart is turning over its walmart china operations. It now be operated by jd. Com. And i guess in compensation for that, walmart will get a 5 stake, approximately in, jd. Com. Back to you. Operating in china has been tough for a lot of u. S. Retailers. Home depot got out of there a long time ago. They were so frustrated. Absolutely. One more thing, of course, youre talking about dealing with this whole on line marketplace phenomenon as well. Youre looking for people, big players to team up here and in this case, the worlds biggest brickandmortar retailer. Well see how this changes the retail landscape in china. Big American Companies really need a partner, an on the ground partner in china. Weve seen that play out time and time again. Dom, of course this helps jd. Com compete against ali. Alibaba. They really focused a lot on groceries as well. The idea can you have possibly same day deliveries, some of the delivery options with jd. Com delivering some of the services. Youre talking about trying to capitalize on the infrastructure already being put in place by jd. Com having that infrastructure, if you will, to distribute the goods. The competition is going to be very fierce. It could be a very large market if you can just get a slice of it. It could translate into some real profits here. Walmart citing the gains it could see as a result of this particular transaction. Well see if it plays out. The stock walmart is closer to a 52week high now than it was just back in november. Remember, it hit the 52week low. The shares are closer to the other side of the spectrum. Theyve been selling off 30 to the down side over this year to date period. All right. Dom, walmart contributing to the move that were seeing today. Thank you. To the big rally now, bob pisani . 51. Advancing to declining stocks. Weve been steady even after the european stocks closed. Nine out of ten s p 500 sectors are to the upside. Were astonishingly will 8 of the 10 are up 1 or more. Thats a broad rally. Steady as she goes. Look at everything here. Bank stocks up more than 1 . Consumer discretionary, industrials, technology, materials. As i mentioned, eight of ten sectors up more than 1 . Were strong right across the board. It doesnt matter where you look. Look at the financials, the Money Center Banks like citigroup are strong and regional banks. Theyre all up more than 1 . The bank index up is 2 overall. Industrials, no matter where you look, if you look at the rails like csx, truckers, airlines Line American had a rough week last week. Honeywell is at a 52week high now. Even the machinery names had a rough start to the year. All up about 1 . Materials the same thing. The weak dollar really helping. All the steel stocks like ak steel are on the upside. Industrial metal stocks, the big global iron ore names all to the upside. Finally, you think there is something lagging here. Why wouldnt defensive names lag . But even thats not really happening. Kraft, super value, look at these. All up more than 1 . This is about a broader rally as you are going to see anywhere in the market. Back to you. As you mentioned, bob, part of the reason were seeing this rally, the latest brexit poll is a move towards staying in the European Union. Thats why the stocks are rallying to day. Wi willford frost joins us. Im joined now by greg hands, the chief secretary to the treasury. Hes the chancellors righthand man. Greg, great to have you with us. Good afternoon. As we have been discuss in the studio, markets move sharply as we were mentioning. It is all over . They have this tied up now. I think it is still athrthre days to go until the actual vote. I think the very strong foremanance from David Cameron last night in the debate, that i think has also helped move things in our direction. Still a lot to play for. Just getting the feeling i met a lot of people this morning just getting to improve a little bit. Talk us through, from your perspective, working in the treasury, the impact on the british economy, perhaps the broader european and Global Economy if britain did leave. I use ed to work in the Financial Markets before the current job i got. I think the impact on the uk economy would be very, very bad. I think the impact on Financial Markets in london and those working Financial Markets would be very poor as well. Those arent the treasury numbers but all the independent forecasters, imf, ukifs are all saying similar things at the impact would be very negative. In your time in the world of finance and now in politics and looking at the financial side of politics, how many times you have seen revisions to short term gdp forecasts . Well, quite a few times. There have been such revisions. Those are a little bit volatile. But what we are saying unanimously is the long term gdp forecast, the uk leaving the European Union would be very negative. The treasuries forecast thats got a lot of news here that it would cost households 4,300 pounds each if they left the European Union that, is based on a forecasted gdp to 2030. Its not forecast. Its a scenario. So what it looks at is what would be the difference to gdp if the uk were to leave the eu . So its not a forecast. What is the forecast in the short term . The thing, is its not just the treasury numbers. There are other independent commentators saying similar things. A big negative impact on uk gdp if they left the European Union. Regardless of whether that is correct or not, that view on the economy, do you fear that focus is more on other issues, particularly immigration and you can shout about the economy all you like. But if someone has a bin in the bonnet about the immigration issue, theyre not going to listen to the economic argument. The economy is streamly important. The campaign hasnt actually been able to demonstration how immigration will be an elect on the European Union. But what i would say is that, you know sh thats a big price to pay. Crashing the economy and to have to solve immigration. I think that is a huge problem. Just quickly, your experience in finance, if we did vote to leave, how much could sterling fall on the day . Its not my job to speculate from. That but what the treasury forecasts, the treasury numbers have shown is perhaps 12 to 15 cent fall in sterling. The governor of the bank of england said sharply so those are the sort of numbers that we in the treasury are looking at. Thank you very much. Greg hands joining me here. Back to you. All right. Thank you so much. Meantime sh we got the results in from the most recent two year note auction. Largest auction since november of 2015. It sold at the lowest yield since september of 2015. Take a check on the yield here. A little spike higher,. 741 . Thats where we stand at this moment. Brian . Perhaps no group of companies is watching at brexit vote more closely than the big banks, citigroup, Morgan Stanley and j. P. Morgan chase. 10 to 20 of their revenues are from europe. So any chaos there can have a big impact on their bottom line. Lets bring in a financial analyst. He likes the shares of many of the big banks. He also brought a bag of carrots. Were going to get to the reasons in a second and the carrots. The actual vegetable, mike. First off, your macro take on if we get a vote to leave the eu, what happens to the shares of the company you cover . The shares of the large u. S. Banks declined with a leave vote. It would increase the cost complexity and friction for the large u. S. Banks. And lets take a perspective here. For the entire decade, the u. S. Banks have selected london as the hub for the european strategy. So if you want to unwind that, the result would be a move of thousands of jobs from london to frankfurt, paris and elsewhere. You think they fall. Listen, year to date, citigroup and Morgan Stanley are down 17 and 18 respectively. They didnt fall year to date s that in part on this eu vote or something totally different . Its been exacerbated most recently here. But the concern is the resiliency of the balance sheet, the earnings revisions downward for lower prolonger rates. And regulation. So there is enough issues impacting the back here. About the issue of them moving, perhaps to frankfurt or paris. The uk still uses the bound. They never actually joined the currency union. Theyre part of the European Union. Do you really think frankfurt or paris would ever be welcoming to banks . I mean, find that astounding that london would lose to those cities which make it clear on a daily basis how much they hate banks. Well, there is just the reality of doing business in many countries. If you want to go ahead and have, you know, your hub outside of london, you might need duplicate Data Processing centers. Perhaps you need more people to clear securities outside of london. Youll need all sorts of complexity to just manage, you know the day to day. You have more friction in capital flows from uk to the rest of europe. Athat creates additional complexity and cost. I feel like i asked you this question several time. Ill ask you again. The european banks are telling us that there is some sort of a risk, a bigger risk, maybe a contagion risk. How do you handicap twlornt is fallout on the u. S. Banks from what is going on with the european banks. I mean you have european banks trading at levels we have not seen since before the financial crisis. Its got to be telling us something, no . Thats tough to handicap. I will say that u. S. Banks Balance Sheets are in the strongest shape in decades. This is a nice segue to the Bank Stress Test. I have a lot of news on this over the next two weeks. The Bank Stress Test involves scenarios of 10 unemployment. Negative 6 gdp. Stocks in the u. S. Following by half. And only after that stress are banks allowed to return capital through dividends and buy backs. So as bad as brexit would be, its not life ending for the u. S. Banks. The banks are so resill yenlt. Im so glad to hear. That and life is not going to end for the u. S. Banks. I know americans will be comforted by. That how big a deal is brexit though . And it is a transitory effect . As you rank the hierarchy of risk to u. S. Banks which a lot of the viewers may have stock, where does it fit . It is number one . It is number seven . Its not number one and its not number seven n the short term, markets dont like uncertainty. Banks have to deal with that uncertainty. It could hurt trading and other Capital Market activities. It could hurt economic growth. As you said at the start, you know, 10 to 20 of the rev knees of the largest u. S. What do you expect the stress test to show . Any surprised . I think the stress test will show that banks have the most resir resill yenlt Balance Sheets theyve had in decades. The fed has a big stick. One out of seven banks have failed the stress test the last three years due to equally take theive, subjective equally take theive factors. What wont show, unfortunately, the fed as big as their stick, is they need more carrots. The carrots. So i went shopping. We get to the carrots thats gross. Look. The fed unintentionally is keeping large banks bigger for longer. Because what i say to the poor performing banks like citigroup Morgan Stanley, bank america, when i say poor performing, returns for the cost capital. I say go ahead and downsize. Derisk. Sell off assets. One thing they say back. The other thing they say is we lose the revenues. Who is to say were able to use the freed up capital for buying up stocks . Thats the carrots. Thats what the fed is not doing. The fed, unintentionally is keeping large banks bigger for longer by not distributing carrots to the banks. You wont see carrots the next two weeks. We are one step closer to a snowman, by the way. Quickly, you call Jp Morgan Chase the lebron jamgz es much banking. Is that your favorite stock . That is one of our top three. One of. Our top three stocks. As we said, lebron james, he is good at offense. He is also good at defense. Jp morgan has a dividend yield of over 3 which might be an increase in the dividend of jp morgan. Youll continue to see that strong defense. We also think theyll have better offense here as they benefit from better markets recently. Whats up, doc . Yeah. Not manufactuy of the bank s. But soon they will be. Mike mayo, thank you. And thank you for the carrot. I can see better already. That is super insightful. Meantime, the stock rally continues. Yeah. I own a home and an apartment. But coming up, is this rally really all about the vote ineniin eni england. What else may be responsible for todays big gains when power lunch with vegetables returns. They found out whos been hacking into our network. Who . Guess. I dont know, some kids in a basement . You watch too many movies. Who . A Small Business in china. A business . They work nine to five. They take lunch hours. Like a job . Like a job. We tracked them. How did we do that . We have some new guys defending our network. New guys . Well, theyre not that new. Theyve been defending things for a long time. [ digital typewriting ] its not just security. Its defense. Bae systems. Great time for a shiny floor wax, no . Not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. Timings important. Comcast business knows that. Thats why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. Even late at night, or on the weekend, if thats what you need. Because you have enough to worry about. I did not see that coming. Dont deal with disruptions. Get Better Internet installed on your schedule. Comcast business. Built for business. The s p 500 and dow off session highs. Still 3 away from the record intraday highs. Lets bring in our cnbc contributors g. Good to see you. What do you see . What do you stick with . Well, i think the move in gold is not long lived. The selloff, that is. This is one thing that i thought there were three things specifically, the british pound, gold, and the vix. I think vix going down that certainly could continue if we get the positive vote out of referendum to remain. I think the british pound rallies. I dont think that either those have a long term negative impact on gold. I it this risk off or risk on is why gold is down today. So thats the one i would say of the three. So basically, you would buy gold . I would. In fact, im probably selling more puts in the afternoon today on gold. Yeah. And tim, you know, some of the moves are really profound. Were seeing within the markets. I mean european financials, for instance, take a look at shares of deutsche bank. Take a look at what is moving the most, what you would save . The things getting the most of a, sashgs brexit off rally, i it this eu banks are still a place where as we talked about mike play yoe shed more positive light on the Banking Sector than many probably feel. But the reality is that there are still issues con fronting the eu banks and include capital issues that are not the u. S. Banks. Having said that, you remove brexit from the front burner. I think the european banks will continue to rally somewhat. That is a rally you save. Its not a place i would want to be short. I think the places that you look to see where i think there is a brexit or not is the dollar. And the dollar which even in the worst of the polling last week really couldnt cap a rally in the face of a fed that was stepping back. I think all of the inverse dollar trades that we have seen work already this year will continue to work. And i think if youre playing both commodity and playing emerging markets and even playing european stocks which, you know, could actually rally with a strong euro, even though typically they actually would like to see a weaker export euro and better export environment. The dollar to me is really the thing to watch. 9380 at the endst week is a long term average. I think if it doesnt close above, i think the dollar Weakness Starts to accelerate dramatically. The and the trades that already worked through difficult times are going to work much more. Thank you. I have to leave it. There dr. Jay, tim, ill see you to night. Thank you. All right. Were all over the big rally. The dow, nasdaq, s p 500 each up just 1 . Plus, daily Fantasy Sports getting a boost here in new york not here, im in new jersey in, new york state. Were good. Okay. What if a Million People download the new app . Were good. Five million . Good. We scale on demand. Hybrid infrastructure, boom. Ok. What if 30 Million People download the app . Were not good. Were total heroes. Scale on demand with the Number One Company in cloud infrastructure. Can an established bank move like a startup . Its a question we get from some of our largest banking clients. The face of their business was tellers. Then atms. Today its their mobile app running on the ibm cloud. Across every transaction, the hybrid cloud helps their data move quickly and securely. 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