Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20170525 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch May 25, 2017

Got to get back in time here is what else is happening at this hour, its a good time to buy a house, if you can find one for sale. Mortgage rates hitting the lowest level since november. The 30year fix now 3. 95 , but housing inventory, the number of homes for sale, remains very low in some cities. The home of the little blue box is giving investors a gift. Tiffany boosting its Quarterly Dividend by 11 and more departures at ford. This time its Global Product Development chief is leaving. Becky, thank you very much. Folks, stop me if you heard this one before its another recordsetting day for your investments. Were in the middle of a sixday win streak propelling yet you heard scott and melissa say i but ill say it again the s p 500 and nasdaq hitting new highs. The dow not far behind. Check this out, the nasdaq is now up 16 of 19 trading days so far this month. That is putting it on pace to have the most up days versus down days of any month since all the way back in september of 1996. Wow. Most of the dow stocks are up led by travelers. As melissa said, best buy, pbh and Dollar General are leading the s p 500 and well find more about the best buy best buy, i see what you did, melissa, in a few minutes. Youre so clever, brian. The story stock of the day, amazon is closing in on the magic number of 1,000 a share. Well go inside the numbers. Staggering run here for amazon and the bulls have certainly been in charge. You look at just the fiveyear chart, 370 gain for amazon shares. Quite a move higher here. If you look at some of the numbers behind this particular move higher, what it means now for amazon shareholders and some of the investors out there is take a look at this. Were talking 477 billion in terms of total overall market cap. Thats going to be a huge number here. It makes it twice as big as walmart. Just to put some of that in context for you. As we talk about the idea that amazon is moving this way, this is also a stock where almost everybody out there is bullish, which may get some people a little worried. The fourth biggest stock in the overall s p 500. Now 84 of analysts say its a buy and the average analyst target price is 1,090 a share, 10 upside from here if those analysts are correct. Just to give you one more interesting note here, 10,000 invested 10 years ago in amazon stock on a split adjusted basis, it was 68 stock back then, its worth about 145,000 today. So great run. Make not bit coin, mely sarks but certainly a great return, guys. Back over to you. Thanks so much, dom. More now from bob who is on the floor of the new york stock exchange. Hi, bob. Hello melissa. This is different. The rally is broadening. I want to show you the s p 500. Remember way back the 17th that was what a week ago wednesday. Look at that big dip. Remember there were concerns over mr. Comey, former fbi director. There were charges of obstruction of justice floating around, lot of concerns around mr. Trump and then it all went away. What happened . The president stopped tweeting as much. He hired lawyers and went to europe. Its that simple, Straight Line up from there. Notable new high. I talked about breakouts. Citi group 52week high. Deere, Lockheed Martin, north rop, lot of the credit cards, mastercard and visas. Over 200 havent seen that in a while. At the same time, oil is down despite the opec announcements of disappointment and Energy Stocks cant really get going. We have new lows on a number of Energy Stocks here. Thats the big disappointment. Retail earnings, here is something odd. Good retail earnings. Havent seen that in a while. Williams sonoma did well. Best buy had a nice beat. The big disappoint chlt, Signet Jewelers disappointment. Back to you, guys. Bob, thank you very much. The market may be hitting new highs but its not a broad based rally. According to s ps howard, apple, amazon, facebook and google those five stocks accounted for 30 of the year to date gains in the s p. The top 15 companies in the s p now account for 50 of the gains. So what happens if some of these big tech stocks start to roll over . Joining us is mark travis with Intrepid Capital funds. And brian, with hennessy funds. What would happen if these big stocks start to roll over . Well, i think weve seen a transition from the active management in the past the last little while. I think thats part of the driver of this. I think youre seeing more people going into these index funds and people are buying the Large Companies based on those moves into the passive side. We havent really seen what would happen if the market kind of turns around and all of these passive strategies are now the momentum starts on the downside. So, it remains to be seen. So far the trade has been hold on to these stocks because they keep doing really well. Uhhuh. Mark, the optimist would look at this and say, well, the other thing that could happen is we could have a more broad based rally. You could see other stocks start to pick up. Other areas sort of start to follow the leader. What do you think is the more likely scenario . A rollover or follow the leader . Well, becky, i think that if you take your friend mr. Buffett, for example, mr. Munger, i scarcely doubt theyre out searching for Companies Trading north of 20 times which is where the broad base market is today. Just to compound what brian was saying, i think we now have where size trumps value. And the fang stocks f you will, remind me a lot of the late 90s. If you look back at the nasdaq, weve only regained those highs from probably march of 2000 here in the last 12 to 18 months. So, it was a very long time to break even. Mark, Brian Sullivan jumping in here. Very important point youre making right now. Not to be alarmist. People were worried about the nasdaq in 96 and 97 we had multiple years of gain before it rolled over. The concern i have and we brought it up before is if all the machines are sort of buying the same stocks because their signals are the same and etfs are loading up on the same five or six stocks because thats what they do, to beckys point, what happens if the they all decide theyre at 25 times time now to sell . Does the home if they pulled this up, does the market have to be pulled down by them necessarily . Brian, do you remember the term that wall street coined in 1987 called portfolio insurance . It was designed to sell futures and you could prevent a loss by continuing to sell futures. That worked really great until it didnt. And october 20th or whatever the date was in 87. Im old enough to have survived that as well. So, i dont want to be overly skeptical. I think theres a renewed optimism across america if we reduce tax rates and pretax cash flow goes up, you know, certainly Business Values are higher. But, what im looking for is a disconnect between price and value and very hard to find in this environment. I have a few. But, its a challenging environment. I think people should be told its okay to sell and im worried that people are piling into these etfs and indexes kind of closer to the top than the bottom if youre in your early 60s youre not going to earn it back. Weve lived through this. In very recent times. Take a look at what happened to the bio tech etf. Bio tech looked like it was the only way up, the only way forward was going to be up for that share. Then you had people running for the exits on that. Could we see a similar sort of situation or is it that was that sort of a id owe sin cattic situation for bio tech versus a broader tech trade . I think you could definitely see that mirrored again. The issue that i have is that its really going to be the retail people who will wind up on the kind of brunt of this because you figure that the pros are going to be on the futures side and are going to be quick to leverage out of it and take the cash that theyve had from the gains. So, you know, what happens to the Retail Investors is they kind of hold on and watch this momentum turn to the downside. And names come out. You know, i think that if im looking for an area to shop, im looking kind of in that small and midcap space thats had money flowing out and that theres still reasonable valuations and look attractive because money is not pushing these stocks higher. All right, mark, brian, want to thank you both. It will give us something to think about. Thank you. Thanks. All right elsewhere today, does General Motors have a vw problem . A lawsuit accusing gm of having socalled defeat devices on some of its diesel pickup trucks which would allow them to fake out emissions testing . Joins us from chicago, phil gives us the details on what gm said about this. Well, gm basically thinks this is an opportunist lawsuit. These are lawyers who found gm truck owners who have Diesel Engines who will join in to a Class Action Lawsuit at a time when a lot of people are questioning the validity of the emissions that are coming out of these diesel trucks. Not just gm trucks but all diesel vehicles. This lawsuit alleges that there are 705,000, 2011 to 2016 Diesel Engine pickups built by General Motors that have defeat devices in them. We reached out to General Motors. The company says these claims are baseless and we will vigorously defend ourselves. The diesel complies with all u. S. Epa and carb emission standards. Guys, im not surprised that we saw this type of a lawsuit being filed, given the fact that you have a number of investigations involving a number of auto makers in europe. Theres this question thats been swirling in the market about whether or not you can trust the emissions of any diesel vehicles ever since the volkswagen case came out and now you have this class action suit against General Motors. One final note, guys. I talked with people inside of gm and you can usually get a read from people when you talk with them. The sense they have is you know what, we double checked. We started double checking all of our Emissions Software once the vw scandal broke in 2014 and 2015 and theyre confident that they do not have defeat devices in the software of these Diesel Engines. Although, phil, this is very specific. This is very specific. You bet. Its not to any diesel car thats out there. You can understand how people are very skeptical. What im saying, becky, if you read the lawsuit and i read the lawsuit, we have a call into the lawyer as well, they claim they have done tests that show that there is defeat devices used in these vehicles. We dont know where those tests were done. We would love to see what those tests were. If theres some validity behind them, we would love to see what the tests were. Its a very buy nar thing, is it not, phil . They either have them and someone found them or they dont. You would think. They claim that there are defeat devices there. Lets see the tests. Lets see what the results are. We should also point out that when you look at this lawsuit, it churns the waters. Theres a lot of references to volkswagon and to diesel emissions and the fact that these are vehicles categorically diesel vehicles that are not living up to the advertisements in terms of meeting emission standards, fuel economy, et cetera. So again, were in a he said she said period where you have lawyers who are filing this lawsuit, have filed this lawsuit and General Motors is pretty adamant here not pretty, very adamant that these vehicles do not have cheat devices. It was worth noting that. Phil, lets be clear here, the epa, the doj filed a civil complaint, correct, against chrysler and volkswagen. Correct. They have not investigated gm or are not investigating, correct . Correct. If that were the case, you know that once the doj gets involved its a far different story. Thank you. You bet. Lets get to the bond market, rick san telly tracking a bond action at the cme. What can you tell us, rick . The last option sevenyear notes 28 billion completing 88 billion in coupon supply ran off 2. 06 yield at the dutch auction. Pretty much where the issue market was almost exactly. The bid to cover very close to 10 auction average of 2. 54, 61. 2 lightest since september of 16 on indirects, but the directs at 17. 2, the second best number going all the way back to the summer of 14. Cplus, charlie plus, not a bad auction, but pails in comparison to the a and a minus of the two year and fiveyear that we had the last two days. Market hasnt moved much, but then again Holiday Weekend coming up. Supply out of the way. Melissa lee, back to you. Thank you very much, rick. No stock was amazon harder than best buy, but that stock is up big today and nearly doubled in the past 52 weeks. Is the retail world big enough for eboth of them and the s p 500 headed to another record close. Well talk more about the markets and this record run. Power lunch will be right back. Announcer the bond report is sponsored by pimco. Can see in your blind spot. [ dinosaur roars ] onboard cameras and radar can detect danger all around you. Driver assist systems can pull you back into your lane, if drifting. Bye chief. Bye bobby. And will even help you brake, if necessary. It makes driving less of a production. Lease the gle 350 for 579 a month at your local mercedesbenz dealer. Mercedesbenz. The best or nothing. Prone jar shatterst livthe competition. Pe . Olay regenerist hydrates skin better than creams costing over 100, 200, and even 400. Fact check this ad in good housekeeping. Olay. Ageless. Welcome back to power lunch, everybody. The s p 500 is on pace for its sixthstraight day of gains and hitting a record intraday high today. Best buy is the top performer in that index today. Courtney reagan joins us now with more on that. Courtney . W. Hi, good to see you. Not only is best buy the best performing stock on the s p, shares are hitting alltime highs today. The charts are pretty impressive. Logging the best day since august 2016. Actually gained more than 19 that day. More or less the last Consumer Electronics retailer Still Standing blowing past wall streets estimates for profit and soaring past revenue and comparable sales estimates. Reporting a comp gain when a decrease was expected. Online comps also grew 22. 5 . Amazon who . How did best buy buck this dire retail trend . With a call with media, consumers did buy more higher priced computers particularly laptops spent on mobile devices, connected home and gaming. Now gaming is in part thanks to the Nintendo Switch console released in march. Also says tax refund delays did hurt more than its ever seen before in february, which is why best buys expectations for sales were lower going into this quarter, but ultimately when consumers got the refunds they spent them at best buy. Appliances sold while too. That helped profit margin. That was even as hg greg and sears were holding liquidation sales. Sears did post a smaller than expected loss and comp sales declined but base on a couple analysts estimates to be fair and most think sit a slow spiral to the end. Theres two things about best buy that came to mind when the numbers came out, which is we talked about this housing. Right . You look at retail seems to be two things, buy fur indicated. Anything related to housing, home depot, best buy, new house, new tv, dont do that. And gaming. The Nintendo Switch was hot. I was shocked to see that in the release this morning. Target said the same thing apparently. But also just if you play league of legends and some of these games, theyre ram heavy. They are. I actually bought a dell desktop. So you can play games . Its a simulator. You nerd. But its also true wait a minute. I want to be clear because becky is calling me out. Its called iracing. Its a racing sim mulator, its not a game. I take that back. Youre not a nerd. That makes it better. You actually also need High Powered Computers pcs for a lot of the vr, the Virtual Reality headsets. Those are very high spending sort of items, you also have to have a really high powered computer. And for a number of years there were these Electronics Retailers putting out low priced computers to compete with the google chrome, folks realized theres not a ton you can do with that besides just very, very basic computing. And so now they moved in and now we have to buy that Higher Powered desktop or laptop because that didnt do the trick for us. Courtney its not a game. Well call it what we like to and you call it what you want, brian. Thank you, courtney. Help . So the stock is up close to 40 best buy that is. This year at over 80 in the last 12 months. Too late to jump in . Lets bring in david shik who has a buy rating on the stock. Your price target is 56. The stock is at 60. Now what . Wenchts moved it up already today. To what . 65. Weve been overweight the stock for over a year frankly longer than that, but its really about the two things, the product cycle which you were just talking about but also the lessons that best buy learned, three to five years ago. I think before we started talking, you were talking on air about being amazon. Best buy had to think about closing stores. They had to learn that skill. They had to think about being on the channel and then go back to the vendors and credit something different. Theyve done that and the product cycle is really impacting the business. Were seeing a 21 pop in the stock. Granted there is a 13 short interest. So part could be a short squeeze. How replicatable if you will are these Earnings Results given that switch is a big pop. Is this a lumpiness in the earnings because the product favor work in their favor . Theres always a volatility to a product that may impact a quarter. Switch just started. Its impacting the business. Thats a good thing. Well hear more about gaming. We think our gaming Analyst Thinks there could be some interesting announcements coming out in june around back half of the year new gaming consoles. Well see. Theres also vr and a. R. Around that. You have smart home. Theres more o

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