What arm and instacarts price action will tell us about this debut. Topping the tape for us this morning, fairly obvious, that is the fed decision ahead of that, rates retreating a little bit with oil holding pretty steady. B of a today did up its yearend price target on the s p to 4,600. About 7 upside, while citi says that Global Growth is likely dom in higher than predicted lets bring in cnbc senior markets commentator, mike santoli. And that bullish note on growth is probably one reason why yields havent fallen much thats for sure that, the feds message of higher for longer. And just in general, its all the things we see as headwinds are, as ive been saying, coming against an economy thats already been humming pretty well also, the fed in a pretty good spot, you would have to say. The fact that they basically communicated a likely pause, the market internalized a likely pause, rates roughly where they need to be if the whole debate is about whats the pace of potential cuts next year, thats not a terrible place to be, at least in terms of the market obviously, we could have, you know, complications to that story. We could have another hike in there, we could have a surprise on inflation but i think it all fits together okay, you know, very low conviction, low momentum market that really kind of doesnt know what its next supposed to be pricing in i think the s p is like 3 up or down have even giving a hint at the new directional move whats the leadership in the market right now and how has that changed its grown a little bit less cyclical, a little bit less optimistic, a little bit less kind of riskseeking and a little more defensive. Thats one of those things, as you say, as this consolidation period in the market goes on, its, you know, going on two months at this point youve really lost a little bit of that sense out there that we have, a strong belief in the underlying momentum in the economy. Thats the markets message. Credit is saying, no real big problems here, but in terms of the rate of change, it seems like were starting to worry a little bit more about how the consumer and the economy are going to be able to absorb rates and oil prices where they are. A couple of external factors that were being talked about that would buffet the fed. One is the strike, pretty obvious, depending on how long it lasts the other, as b of a says, if a shutdown happens, no data. Fed would be flying blind, which probably means, net net, they would most likely stay pat in november thats right. Its a few steps down the line before you get to that point you have to make some assumptions about where well be in october the one comfort i would take is the strike Something Like a government shutdown, even to a degree, supplydriven Oil Prices Going up im not going to say theyre selfcorrecting, but usually, once they go back to work, you have a catchup in auto production once the government is no longer shut down, you have a catchup in the fiscal side so the point is, its not like the new run rate of growth, its more just, this complicates a potentially already vulnerable growth story i think the uaw strike thing, though, is not a risk as much more growth, which sure, it is, but its really on the inflation story and could exacerbate supply chain issues and car prices, which have been an important input into the lower theres no doubt about that but to me, when you know the actual cause of the spike in inflation, its going to end transitory . And if you no longer have a fed thats looking for excuses to continue to raise the alarm on inflation, if they want to say where we need to be, theyll deemphasize it. I dont know. It depends on how far along they are in that not wanting to theyre still sort of paranoid about inflation. Mike, thank you. Lets stay on top of the feds decision our next guest believes thefed is done. Hikes are likely over, and the bigger story shes watching today will be the updated Economic Projections joining us now is Guggenheim PartnersInvestment Management cio, anne walsh. Anne was named to barrons list of 100 most influential women in finance. Hello, anne. Nice to see you. Nice to see you as well talk to us about what you are looking for as far as the Economic Projections in the dots so i think were going to get a sense of where the fed believes they need to go at this point in time. We believe that the feds probably on hold, whether they signal that with a bit of a hawkish tone is probably to be expected they dont want to have to reverse course and start raising rates again. But we dont see that in the projections. I think what will be probably more informational is where they see the future neutral rate to be and whether they can start lowering rates into 2024 before we even get to that, i think were going to see continued slowdown in the economy and lower inflation. And you know, thats the trajectory but nothing moves in straight lines, as was just noted oil prices have been increasing, and that, of course will have an influence on inflation in the short run. So, anne, how are you guys positioning at guggenheim around the soft landing story are you gearing up for something, a more pronounced recession . So our view is that we will see a slowdown in the economy. Whether its a fullblown recession or a type of rolling recession or just a significant slowdown, i think thats hahead of us. The fed has done a tremendous amount of tightening into this and through this cycle you know, 5. 5 fed funds with quantitative tightening, ie, the reduction of the Balance Sheet that is still ongoing in the background and so i think conditions continue to be tightened for investors, as a result, were really thinking about how to position coming through a slowdown and that means being more defensive, particularly at this point in time. Now the opportunity set exists very nicely in Investment Grade fixed income youre getting yield, which we were getting last year or the year before. So investors are getting rewarded to be patient and defensive into this cycle. Particularly in investment dgrad corporates and structured credit, where we get 5. 5 to 6 yields very attractive at this time what about the equity market . Anything look attractive there equities are a bit concerning, because i think they are overbought at this time. P\e ratios were really p\e ratio expansion was really the multiple expansion was really a driver of performance this year, and that concerns me with regard to the broader markets, as we were just listening in, earlier, we were talking about the shift towards defensives i think the market is moving in that direction, albeit a little bit slowly and so i think that being thoughtful with regard to positioning at this point in time, but will hold investors in good instead i mean, were seeing even in high yield, though, theres still investment opportunity, but were going up in credit quality there and being more defensive in terms of covenant protection, industrial protections, at this point in time the feds really right to slow the economy down, drive down demand, and ultimately, usher in the slowdown of this recession that were projecting. So being thoughtful and being defensive at this time makes a lot of sense anne, a lot of skepticism among some that you can actually get back to a real 2 target i would argue, maybe you think its of the people who are watching this closely, you think that is possible, maybe, or getting at least close to it by the end of 24 absolutely. I think the fed is going to continue to remain tight the higherforlonger story is playing out right now. The feds not likely to want to pivot very soon. They dont want a repeat of the 1970s, where they would lower rates and then inflation would rear its ugly head again so what theyre really looking to do is to hold steady, to make sure that inflation is managed, and we do believe that we can get 10 to 2 target, some time in 2024. At that point in time, theyre going to reverse course and rates will fall. The long end of the curve will fall before that, because of expectations on inflation that trades with inflation and so as a result, we would see that the tenyear treasury, which of course issed a record levels right now, it will reverse course and work its way back down into the lower part of the trading range. Weve really been in a trading range of about 3. 25 to 4. 25. Obviously, were a little bit on the high side of that right now. But as we go through 2024, we would anticipate that the tenyear would retreat from these levels back down to the lower end of the trade range probably not through that trading range. It would have been to some sort of really severe financial event, which were not projecting to cause any kind of move in the tenyear treasury well below that. In the next, what, year or so is that what youre whats the time frame there time frame is, well start to see the tenyear reverse course probably later this quarter, sbe certainly into the First Quarter as we continue to see the economy slow down, and these recessionary elements really come to the forefront. Got it. Anne, really good to hear from you. Get your sort of world view, market view. Appreciate it, anne walsh, cio of guggenheim. Thank you getting a news alert this morning on bank of america for that, well turn to leslie picker hi, leslie hey, cq bank of america is hiking its minimum wage to 23 per hour next month that means the floor for annual pay for fulltime employees increases to nearly 48,000. Firm said in a press release thousands of employees will be exacted by this. Bank of america doesnt break out a specific number, but the increase is 1 higher than the bank of americas prior minimum wage of 22. Bank of america has said that it plans to raise minimum wage to 25 an hour by 2025. Thats a 121 increase since 2010 and 23 an hour is broadly higher than almost all of bank of americas banking peers, although some banks do adjust their minimum wages based on location its also more than three times higher than the federal minimum wage the majority of u. S. States have their own minimum wage laws that are more, but 21 states default to that federal level. Working 40 hours a week, that minimum wage equates to just over 15,000 a year. Having just come off a discussion about wage growth and inflation, thank you leslie picker on b of a. Meantime, ubs staying bearish on retail, but picking a few names can outperform in the nearterm. Well get to that next plus, the ceo of airbnb with us after some new announcements related to prices. Those cleaning fees may finally be dropping. All of that and more when squawk on the street comes rit ck were holding on to a gain and pushing a little higher, up 185 on the dow ella fashion moves fast. Setting trends is our business. We need to scale with customer demand. In real time. jen so we partner with verizon to take our operations to the next level. marquis with a custom private 5g network. ella with verizon business, we get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. marquis so our customers get what they want, when they want it. jen its not just a network. Its enterprise intelligence. vo learn more. Its your vision, its your verizon. Every day, businesses everywhere are asking is it possible . With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that, too. Is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations . Yeah absolutely. 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The s p spyder retail etf near 3. 5 month lows, potentially because of some of these headlines like student loan payments and Higher Oil Prices weve been through the ringer on those prints. Another retail call on our radar, the soft line slump from ubs. The firm says it expects a slowdown in the sector to play out over the next six to twelve months joining us this morning, ubs managing director, senior retail skpeshlty soft lines analyst, jay soul great to have you back fascinating note which we talked about yesterday, youve done some survey work, basically looking at Holiday Spending intentions and i wonder if you think were getting to a point now where the consumer is starting to make some tougher choices well, carl, thanks for having me on the show youre absolutely right. The consumer in our sur vey work is telling us that they feel a lot more optimistic about how much they want to spend in this Holiday Season in july, they were relatively positive, in september, that positive attitude went away and people are getting really cautious about spending. Overall, not just on holiday, but over the next three months talk to us about spread about the respondents who say theyre going to spend more versus less . One of the questions we asked in the survey, do you plan on spending more or less on Christmas Gifts this year . And in july, we got some answers. And in september, we got more answers. And typically, the amount of people who say theyre going to spend more doesnt change from september from july to september. But this year, we saw a big jump in the percentage of people who said they were going to spend less, and really very little change in the percentage of people who said they were going to spend more. And that sort of sequential change, that change from july to september is really notable to us that says that sentiment for Consumer Spending on consumer apparel and footwear skand accessories is really falling. How do you determine winners and losers in that kind of environment . I think its going to be tough, overall we have a bearish call overall on the soft line space and thats because we think if consumers arent pulling back and feeling like they have to make choices in their budget, one of the main things theyre going to pull away from is apparel, footwear, and accessories. Its not going to be great for anybody, but there are some companies that have been taking share, have great momentum, like deckers on holdings, on sneakers as well. And Companies Like ralph lauren. Weve seen some pretty constructive comments on rl in particular lately. Some of thats been around cleaner inventories, margin upside, and i think what cotton has done over the last, say, year and a half. Well, carl, thats right. Theres a lot of nice cost savings that will be helping Ralph Laurens margins, because freight costs have fallen. But at the same time, ralph lauren is a company thats been through a lot of changes over the past ten years and really, the work the company has done to reposition itself for todays consumer environment, you know, being in places where Consumers Want to spend with the right kind of products and a brand thats regained momentum is something that the market isnt quite kind of paying attention to and i think were at a point now where the company is going to start to show a lot of growth, surprising growth. Not just in the u. S. , but all over the world and thats what we think will make the stock go up theyve done a great job and theyre on the right track you have a pretty wide range of retail in your coverage universe, from the department stores, to the more higherincome brands like tapestry would have to the Dollar Stores. Are you saying universally, everyone is going to weaken here highend, lowend, categories . Sarah, whats interesting about what the survey data shows, its not just lowincome consumers that are feeling the impact of inflation and feeling the impact of having to start to repay their student loans. What were really is really all consumers of all demographic types are starting to say, hey, were feeling a little bit less good about our financial situation and about how much we want to spend over the next three months and into the holiday. So its really not just focused on one group of consumers or one group of stocks. Its really across the board jay, fascinating. And were going to find out pretty quickly here how this shakes out, as we get closer to the holiday. Thanks for the time. Early indication from nike next week when it reports earnings on the strength of consumer were getting some breaking news out of stellantis phil lebeau has the details. Phil sara, take a look at shares of stellantis, the company has announced that it is going to be laying off 68 people at its toledo machining plant as a result of the strike that is taking place down at the jeep plant in toledo, ohio. In addition, it says that it is likely to lay off an additional 300 at its cocomo transmission as well as cocomo castings plant in cocomo, indiana this is the knockdown effect that weve heard about, that weve already heard news from ford and gm, that because of these strikes, if work or parts are not going to a particular facility where theres a strike taking place, theyre not going to continue cranking out whatever product or having the people who are working on stuff that would be going to that plant. Its just not possible so as a result, stellantis, laying off 68 immediately in toledo and likely laying off another 300 in cocomo, indiana guys, back to you. Just to be clear, phil, theyre temporary layoffs until the plants come back sure. Sure all right yep thats something. Phil, thank you phil lebeau. The past week has been a big one for ipos, arm, instacart going public street reactions to those ambi debuts still awaiting klaviyos first trade of the nyse. Indication is 35 to 37 well bring you that as it happens. Stay with us but if its using untrusted data can you trust the results . Your business doesnt just need ai, it needs the right ai for your business. Introducing watsonx a platform designed to multiply output by tailoring ai to your needs. When you watsonx your business, you can train, tune and deploy a