Transcripts For CNBC Squawk 20240703 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk July 3, 2024

Weve got United Health, bank of america, Morgan Stanley, Johnson Johnson also beating on the bottom line, although different reactions in the markets. Sara eisen sits down to ecb president , Christine Lagarde discussing inflation, Interest Rates and where the central bank is diverging from the fed when it comes to rate policy. Stocks look to rebound again, similar picture in terms of the premarket yesterday. We know how beholding the market is to some of these headlines. For sure. The yields are basically still pushing higher at a pretty moderate pace, but in service of the pain threshold for stocks and the economy, this has been a similar backdrop to what we had late last year except with the economy in more secure footing it seems. We basically unwound this idea, you can have the eem mat lack disinflation, talking about the economy almost in overheat mode. What have we done or accomplished in the markets so far in april . That long streak of no 2 dips in the s p, thats over. One of the longest streaks over above average, thats over. You kind of have this unwind of the momentum and systematic trade that is very, very long going into all this. It is a lot about whether yields impinge. We havent had yields above 4. 6 in the tenyear in the post Global Financial crisis world except for october of last year. October of last year, thats what really was the crucible of the deepening of the correcting. Where was the s p, under 41. It shows its not a onetoone, yields are here, therefore stocks should be here. If it starts to look like its thats whats backed off the stock market. Bofa, expectations for higher global inflation going back a few years and for global growth. The nolanding scenario is at kind of a record high. Thats the world that this new reality has been encountering which is everybody kind of embracing the idea. Not only that the economy was in good shape globally, but that you could have this no tradeoffs world that you dont have to worry about inflation staying higher or maybe the fed being more patient. It seems mostly all good excuses for the market to have what it needed to have which is a little bit of a reset. 10 up in the First Quarter in the s p. Every single time thats happened except for one, the rest of the year was higher. The smallest pullback was 4 , and that was back in the 1960s. In the last 50 years, if youre up 10 in the First Quarter, the minimum pullback is 6. 5 . Were up 4 right now. This time yesterday we were all remarking on how it seems somewhat unusual how strong the market appeared to be given the geopolitical tensions. We dont know what the israeli response will be to the iranian attack over the weekend. We, of course, reversed yesterday. Anything you can share, mike, in terms of when it comes today to day to day. It was almost a net deescalation. We didnt think it was going to spiral from here. Oil is your cue. If oil is steady, calm, backing off, it probably tells you were not being held captive to the geopolitical concerns, but then the bonds started to sell off again. On friday you had a little haven bid in treasuries. That was gone. In fact, it became a little bit more of an aggressive selloff. Were looking for that level where bonds either settle whats interesting is everyone is saying this morning, stocks starting to look over sold. Earnings should be a net positive because they are going to be an aggregate. We kind of know that at this point. As we accumulate more earnings reports, that could create more support. Tactically speaking, do we get over sold, do we have a fear entering this market. Its sort of maybe kind of at this point. Its not as if its a clear picture. Volatility index toward 20, but not quite above 20 yesterday. The thing to look for, when bonds start getting bought because people are worried about the stock market going down and yields have gone high enough that, in fact, it could pinch off growth. A really bad Housing Starts number this morning. Bonds got a very brief bid and equity futures rallied a little bit. Were talking about small moves. Talking multifamily, the print this morning on starts close to a decade low. Permits down 4. Well hear from powell today and barkin and williams, and jefferson should be hitting the tape sometime about now. You want to hear how theyre characterizing the three straight hot cpi reports. I doubt theres going to be a big rethink theyll convey. I do think if they kind of stick to the story of we can be patient, the economy is giving us that luxury, but we do have an easing bias, thats not new news, but it maybe doesnt resolve everything wed like to see resolved. Mike mentions earnings. Its all about the banks. Goldman upgraded as they point out the recent quarter demonstrates the strength of their franchise and what theyre calling an Investment Banking upturn. Morgan stanley and bofa, plenty of good metrics to look at. It would feel like it right now. Both stocks appear tore higher. Certainly Morgan Stanley coming in with return on common equity 19. 7 during the quarter, expense etch fish see ratio at 71 . They say it demonstrates operating leverage. Again, what was a better market environment. We certainly sold goldman outperform, it appeared, many of its peers. Morgan stanley has sort of trudged along as a stock and underperformed the group of the large cap banking sector. Today will be a bit of a different story at least in the early going. As you can see, both bank of america looks to appear up and Morgan Stanley more so on the strength of the numbers. It does seem Capital Markets and Investment Banking was a net positive contributor to all the big ones. Sometimes thats not the case. Sometimes its like who is positioned right. This seems like there was enough to go around. That seemed to be the margin of upside forthe old Merrill Lynch business. A little leakage and credit in bofa. It was expected in the credit card area. Most of the lenders on the consumer side are saying we see this bump in delinquencies, we dont think its going to persist or get worse. It seems as if there was a moment in time from certain vintages of credit balances that maybe are souring. Some of the chargeoffs in commercial real estate. Interesting piece in the journal about big tech not being a pillar of Office Occupancy as much as it was precovid. And then you talk about the consumer. Average credit card consumer fico 777 has been trending higher over several quarters. We heard this from Morgan Stanley research a few weeks ago. It takes the edge off the concerns it completely does. Its really remarkable. I know people have gone back and looked at the pandemicera stimulus and how it essentially cleaned up a lot of consumer Balance Sheets. It gets people out of paying minimum payments and all the rest of it. It seems to have had legs. You do have those things like the Household Financial obligations ratio is very low, even though inflation has been high and people have built up their balances. Thats basically how much of your disposable income goes to service tech. It seems as around tejs its something to be concerned about. When it comes to bofa, its about whereby the yields are, the unrealized losses, the general trends in deposit costs and how sensitive they are to every move in fed rates. Also want to hit unh, one of the larger market Cap Companies out there, some 410 billion. It will be a bit higher as well, United Healthcare group, based on numbers that came in, at least revenue numbers in particular ahead of expectations. This group has been getting hard hit in terms of actions from the government side when it came to medicare advantage, for example, overall. In particular there had been a lot of concern at United Health about that cyberattack. Weve talked about it, weve been reporting on it. Its amazing that in some ways the market is willing to overlook what is a billion dollars in cost from the cyberattack. Impact for the quarter totaled about 870 million. That was 74 cents a share. The company on the Conference Call estimating fullyear impact a buck 15 to a buck 35. That will be roughly a range of about a billion to 1. 15 billion overall for the full year. Those costs are enormous. That said, mike, the Market Reaction obviously to the numbers overall is positive, and even perhaps the fact that that number may have been a bit lower than anticipated, as large as it is. The stock was in like a 20 pullback. You mentioned it, they have been hard hit. It goes to levels first reached 2 1 2 years ago. I think the companys willingness to essentially keep a lot of the guidance steady in terms of medical loss rates, things like that, cleaned up the story just a bit. It does seem as if were going to see where its been on a yeartodate basis. It is, by the way, most of the early dow futures gain you see, is unh. If not all. About 200 points. We do have, i believe, the cfo ceo talking about the cyberattack and offering at least some perspective. Take a listen. This was an unpress tented attack by a malicious actor on the u. S. Health system. We rapidly deployed resources to develop alternative solutions and moved promptly to restore claims and payment services. Weve made substantial progress, and we will not rest until care providers connectivity needs are met and help ensure the uninterrupted care broad impact on the pgss of the company. It was focused on the change health care business, by the way, a company they bought not that long ago. Perhaps they had overlooked exactly how weak their ability to combat cyberattacks was at the time. I dont know. Its remarkable constantly how the market is willing to sort of say this was an extraordinary event, well take it from here and hope the numbers hold up for the rest of the year in terms of the bottom line. Well get to j j as well. The cfo on squawk earlier to come. Still to come, university of South Carolinas Basketball Team is in the building celebrating the championship. Well talk to coach staley and firstround draft pick cardoso. Thats when squawk on the street continues. The all new godaddy airo helps you get your Business Online in minutes with the power of ai. With a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. Just start with a domain, a few clicks, and youre in business. Make now the future at godaddy. Com airo ameritrade is now part of schwab. Bringing you an elevated experience, tailormade for trader minds. Go deeper with thinkorswim our awardwining trading platforms. Unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. And sharpen your skills with an immersive Online Education crafted just for traders. All so you can trade brilliantly. Youve got xfinity wifi at home. Take it on the go with Xfinity Mobile. Customers now get exclusive access to wifi speed up to a gig in millions of locations. Plus, buy one unlimited line and get one free. Thats like getting two unlimited lines for twenty dollars a month each for a year. So, ditch the other guys and switch today. Buy one line of unlimited, get one free for a year with Xfinity Mobile plus, save even more and get an eligible 5g phone on us visit xfinitymobile. Com today. University of South Carolina gamecocks won their Second National championship in three years, as you know, defeating iowa, Caitlin Clark and posting the tenth perfect season in the history of d 1 Womens College basketball. This morning theyre ringing the opening bell at the big board. Joining us, Kamilla Cardoso and third overall pick in last nights wnba draft and South Carolina coach dawn staley. Thank you for your amazing season and incredible interview after the victory. Weve been talking about the ratings and what it means for womens sports. Do you think were in a moment of sorts for Womens College basketball at least . I do. I do think were in a moment ive said this a long time that i think our game has been held back to now its at a point where its busting through the seams. I dont think were going to look back. I think its going to get better and better. What do you think has been holding it back . I think the Decision Makers have held our sport back to the point of maybe because they dont think they would get return on their investment. I think now is the time in which theyre seeing theres a return on your investment when you pour into our game. Has it always have you felt that way, that were in a change by the way, congratulations on monday night. I was looking at the odds for the sky getting the title. It jumped more than any other team on monday. Thank you, thank you. I think our game is improving a lot. I think theres much more to keep improving. Talk about the season and how it felt going from beginning to end and knowing that there were so many eyes on you, especially in the final four. I think we had an amazing season. Since our first game, i knew we had an amazing team and we was going to do great things together. I was proud of every single one of those girls. Does it change i know youve been doing this a while in terms of recruiting and getting women to come to the skooth and the path theyre expected to take in terms of playing to these huge audiences. You actually have obviously the wnba has been around a while. At this point it seems like a more defined path that people can follow. Womens basketball is a sport, and it feels like that now with the good, the bad, the ugly of it. We have it all. We have villains. We have incredible talent in our sport. Its being highlighted. The good, the bad and the ugly, again, is being highlighted. Thats what you have in every sport thats here and present. By that you mean you get celebrated and, of course, the critics come out and the hot takes come out. Absolutely. I welcome it all. I welcome the critics. I welcome people thinking were not a sport. I welcome, because theyre taking time out of their day to talk about us not being a sport. I welcome it all. We also have people who have marveled over our sport and the people that are in it. Im super proud of where we are, and im encouraged by the future that well have. Theres always the money thing. Theres been so much discussion about nil and how agent legalities are compensated. You look at the contracts on monday night and people are realizing, wait, theres still a lot of disparity. Do you think that changes . I dont do nil, so i dont know. I think now were at a point where there are more eyeballs on our game and our sport, so theyre seeing the disparities, either salary disparities i will say the wnba is moving in the right direction. Were still a very young league, a very, very young league, just like the nba. The nba didnt become what its become in 28 years. Think about that. I do think our future is bright. I do think again people are going to look at our sport and pour into it because they see dollar signs at the end of the day. That has to mean more schools that did not prioritize Womens Basketball, for example, are going to invest in it, right . Therefore, the competition becomes harder . I hope every school, every university treats Womens Basketball and womens sports like the university of South Carolina. They invest. They invest in my salary, they invest in student athletes. Youll see theyre getting were here. Were on a channel that probably everybody goes by real quick ive done it, but ive stopped and looked to see what this is about. I hope that this is a time in which youll have more Womens Basketball coaches here on stage because i do think our game is going to be rich with talent and financial gain. You were so gracious in your victory interview about Caitlin Clark. Now shes on snl doing weekend update. In order to create the success youre talking about, you need superstars, yes . Caitlin clark is a superstar. I credit her with raising the level. Were creating more aye balls on our sport, and we need to thank her for that. A lot of people think im being facetious when i say that. Im not. Im all for the greater good of our game. If shes a big part of it, we need to find the next superstar to take the game to the next level along with the storylines like the team we had, undefeated season we need to tell all the stories of the game. Its inspiring coach. Thank you for both here. Congratulations again. Well be watching in chicago. Speaking of able, you can watch the first ever cnbc changemakers on thursday, april 18th. Youll hear from changemakers including the commissioner of the wnba. Scan the qr code to learn more. Visit cnbc. Com changemakers. We continue to watch somewhere around above 4. 67 on the tenyear. Take a quick bakre. Were back in a moment. Dont go away. Rm. Amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. Amelia, unlock the door. Im afraid i cant do that, jen. Why not . Did you forget something . My protein shake. The future isnt scary, not investing in it is. Youre so dramatic amelia. Bye jen. 100 innovative companies, one etf. Before investing, carefully read and consider Fund Investment objectives, risks, charges expenses and more prospectus at invesco. Com. Hi, im ben and ive lost 60 pounds on golo. guitar music risks, charges expenses and more ive struggled with weight my whole life. Im sure youre like me and youve tried diet after diet. If you want to stop the insanity, try golo. Still to come, an exclusive with ecb president lagarde. Well take a quick break as we continue to watch futures in the green. Busy tuesday setting up. Squawk on

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