High, a little bit lower than what weve seen in the last few days. But, again, all of these markets kind of waiting to see what the cpi signals today if inflations getting worse or not. The first couple of years, were in that seasonal oneoff situation or youre in a situation where you have higher prices moving their way through the line once again. Check out precious metals. Commodities across the board have been higher. Gold at another alltime high. You also had silver hitting its highest level since june of 2021. Copper at its highest level since the beginning of january since 1 18. Aluminum higher. All of these things reflecting commodities across the board. Cpi is a little hotter. Goods inflation is a little hotter. Well see. Weve had shares on the other side of the vote, what they thinks going to happen. Im in the Roger Ferguson camp because i try to follow people who have been right. Tom lee has been right too. Thats the thing. Hes been betting on the markets, and he thinks this is going to show lower this time. Is tom lee in the three camp . I dont know if he put a number on how many cuts, but he thinks youre going to see inflation come down, that it was a seasonal issue, and then thats a signal to the markets its kind of an allclear. We shall see. 8 30s the time. Inflation is the number one thing on the schedule. That will happen at 8 30 a. M. Eastern time. Well get the Consumer Price index eastern time. Poll forecasters expecting an increase of 0. 3 . Thats the number to beat or be below. Up 3. 4 year over year. Also on todays agenda, weve got Quarterly Results. Delta air lines, well bring you those numbers. And ed bastien coming up at the top of the hour and things happening. A longtime employee at boeing taking his public concerns yesterday. They say the plane took short cuts to ease production bottlenecks. He said manufacturers wrongly measured and filled gaps when air frames are joined together. That could cause fatigue in the teal that could short p the life of the plane. Boeing disputes those allegations. It says concerns have been subject to rigorous examination on faa oversight. The faa said it will investigate those claims. You can see share of boeing, which are up 30 . Already down 31 year to date. Then this morning the Associated Press is reporting that the Ceo Dave Calhoun has been summoned to testify over the safety of his aircraft. In the next hour well be speaking with Randy Babbitt about this and much more. Apple is reporting that some 14 billion worth of iphones have been assembled in india, now accounting for about one in seven of all new iphones locally. Among the top companies, fox come at 67 followed by pegatron and wistron. The question is how quickly can that i do this . Apple is looking to expand in miami. The move follows expansions by amazon and microsoft in the area as well. There have been some opportunists. Carnival las been looking at selling its headquarters there because the market has gotten so hot. Ratcheting up those who have been ot. Its true. Were also watching shares of Taiwan Semiconductor. The company reporting a surge up 34 year over year. Tsmc is the Worlds Largest contract semiconduction. And semiconduction shares up. I dont know how to pronounce this. Intel has introduced a new chip, a new ai chip. Is it goaudi. Is it gaudi or gaudi . I dont know. It runs faster than the comparable chip. Were going to talk more about it with a chip stocks analyst from Morgan Stanley at the beginning of the hour. Now i want to know. Gaudi, gaudi . I dont know. Ill try to figure it out. The audience from mondays mens ncaa Basketball Championship rose from last year. It brought in an average of 14. 8 million viewers. The most watched game of the mens tournament wasnt even in the final four. It was the elite eight matchup between n. C. State and duke that brought in 15 million viewers. Everything was eclipsed by the womens title game, making it the most watched basketball game of any kind in five years. First of all, phenomenal to see the draw that womens sports has. I will also say it was on at an earlier hour. I tried to stay up for the championship game on uconn on monday night. That game didnt start until 9 00 eastern time. So i was able to watch the first half and a teeny tiny bit beyond that, but that is too late for us east coasters. They should move it. It would be better for them and everybody. On the west coast, i understand its a big deal for them on the west coast. That starts at 6 00 p. M. Thats early. But thats not when the super bowl airs. Inflation could add fuel to the debate. Were going to hear from a hawk and a dove after the break. Later well talk about the big moves in recent weeks in gold and oil prices with jeff currie, our commodities guru. Squawk box is coming right back. Announcer this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. 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Cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. Cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul. Com. At pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. Our timetested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. Pgim investments. Shaping tomorrow today. Welcome back to squawk box. Bach tick is reiterating for one rate, but hes hoping to change if the economic picture changes. That echoes his message on squawk box last week. He said he couldnt discount the possibility that the rate cuts ma i have to move further out because of a robust economy. Today, of course, cpi readings could add fuel to this debate about a rate cut future, whether theres one in the future or maybe none. Joining us right now, two folks on two sides of this debate, a dovish side, veronica clark, and on the hawkish side, tom s simmons. Do you want to make your case . I dont think cpi data is going to change this much. Were expecting an onpoint consensus change. I think what the market is getting a bit wrong is how dovish is fed Reaction Fund can be if we happen to get weaker labor market data or with cpi we get a little bit of a downsized surprise. This is a chance for the fed to cut the economy, the labor market. And what is your base case right now . Theyre cutting in june and were cutting every month after june. Thats 125 basis points this year. So youre way we are, we are, yeah, but i really think it only takes one or two months of weaker labor market data, which i know weve had a string of very strong apparels readings, but some of the details of this labor market do not look very favorable. How weak of a jobs market would you have to see for them to do that . Honestly, to cut more than were expecting right now or more than the market is pricing right now, i dont think you need much, a 50 k increase in apparels, i think, would do it. We do see signs is that demand for labor is really slowing down. The Unemployment Rate has risen from the lows. Its not going to take much for them to cut in that case. Okay. Tom is on the other side of the de debate. If we had had this conversation two or three weeks ago, we would have seen exactly the same fed path cut rate. We were going to cut at each meeting for the rest of the year as well. Friday when we got the payroll data, i finally threw in the towel on the recession call. Ive been one of these guys thats expecting the economy to roll over, were going to get this big pullback in consumer demand, theres going to be in negative reinforcing cycle, layoffs because businesses arent really prepared to preserve margin any other way than caughting costs through labor, but we keep talking about this resilience in the economy. You know, consumers have been able to maintain their demand profile with a low savings rate. Businesses have been able to prereceive margins pretty well in aroy we didnt expect that Pricing Power has come back, and now im thinking that you can say a thing is unsustainable over and over until you say, how long can i keep saying this . Eventually it becomes unsustainable. I think what were seeing right now its a capitulation. Yeah. Theres only so many times you say im pushing out the recession call. What do you think when youre talking about one cut . From my perspective, theyre very much in line with what hes been saying. How can you be in line with what hes saying if youre in line with veronica . You know, im starting to buy into the fact that the economy can continue to grow. In a holistic sense, it can still continue to grow. Were not heading into a recession immediately. I thought we would start to see negative gdp by the third quarter. Thats clearly not happening. Theres still ammomentum amongst consumers, especially along the high end they can support the overall household sector. What was your call at the beginning of the year, im just curious. We had 100 basis point cuts. We started in july and then we had a dovish fed to start this year. We pulled forward in june with 125 and thats been the call since early january. So what is the metric that you look at . If tores not the metric that youre looking at today is the day i assume is the big number you need to Pay Attention to. Yeah. Underneath all of this, are there numbers maybe youre not talking about . Yeah. I think theyre seeing the same signs of a weakening labor market we are. Certainly, yes, you dont see it in apparels yet, but the higher rate thats fallen. Temporary employment rate thats come down, hiring intentions of Small Businesses and employment data, all of these are trending lower and close to 2010 kind of levels. You know, i think theyre seeing that, and they really want to avoid a weaker labor market, and if you started to see that show up in your rising initial or continuing jobless claimings, continually trending higher for maybe four to six weeks, i think thats a concerning sign for them. When you talk to your equities guys and they ask you about your take on all this, what do you think your equity market to the extent you follow all of this is demonstrably baking into the cake, and what would be the real problem . Is there a moment the market is too ahead of their skis . For example, if hes right, is there a demonstrable downward pressure at that point . Yeah. We are expecting labor to be slowing. Weve had retail sales down on the year. Weve already had auto sales fall in q1 this year, the largest decline since 2022. So were already seeing signs consumption is slowing a bit. I think theyve priced in some amount of cuts, but they have to see whats gone on in the markets for the pricing of the fed cuts for the year. It wasnt that long ago they were pricing in eight, nine, ten cuts from q3 of last year and 2024, right . Now weve compressed it all into two or three cuts and the markets are doing pretty well, right . They cant be blind to the fact. There should be some recognition, okay, we dont need as many cuts. The economy has formed pretty well. Maybe things arent so bad. Maybe thats whats really priced in. We will see at 8 30. Hopefully we can have you back and continue this wild kind of nerdy debates. Be happy to. When we come back this morning, robert frank will join us. Hes going to tell us about a trend among the ultrawealthy, shopping around for dual citizenship. And squawk pod has been nominated for a webby award. You can help us. Scan the qr code you see on the screen. You can follow us. The code will take you right to the page where you can show your support for us in the web bys which honors the best on the inrn eh teetacyear. Voting is open until april 18th. Squawk box will be right back. Trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, giving traders even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. Get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more all crafted just for traders. And with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. Trade brilliantly with schwab. sirens [due at target in 5 ] copy that. Make a hard left down the alley. Networks got you covered. [please confirm requesting backup. ] changing route. Go. Roadblock ahead. Back up, back up. Reverse reverse next level moments, were 30 seconds out. Need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry ] coming through or 3, lets go. The network more businesses choose. Transplant received. At t business. Ultrawealthy. Shopping around for a dual citizenship. Robert frank joins us right now. Man, that is the ultimate luxury. A Record Number of americans are getting second passports to hedge their risks. Thats according to henley partners. The u. S. Is now the largest market for applications for multiple passports and longterm visas. Theyre not giving up their american citizenship. Theyre just adding a second, sometimes a third or fourth. These are called passport portfolios. Some of these folks are citing politics or social unrest. Others like second passports for safer business travel, especially countries that may be hostile to the u. S. The idea of diversification is very well understood by wealthy individuals. It makes no sense to have one country of citizenship when i have the ability to actually diversify. Americans favorite countries for a second passport are por portugal, malta, greece, and italy. A Record Number are expected to migrate mainly out of china, russ russia, and other hot spots. There will be an addition of 3,500 added millionaires. Theres always a tax implication. We tax your Global Income matter where you live or whether youre a dual citizen. On the face of it, no. But its easier to transfer assets of which youre a resident or a citizen. If you could have a passport from anywhere, where would you get . I mean europe. Malta is a possibility. You can travel anywhere in europe. The golden ticket. Golden visa. Portugals famed in italy. You can travel through the whole region. To you like malta over part gal . Portugal is great. T its not expensive. Youve got a new project. What is it . Its called inside wealth, a weekly newsletter. If you look at managing the wealthiest of the wealthy, its exploded. 600,000 worth 30 million or more. This is hyperfocused on where wealthy investors are putting their money. So its family office, its alternative investments, venture capital, private equity hedge funds. Taxes is our favorite topic. Its the whole business of Wealth Management and next generation of wealth transfer. What amazes me is i can always ask you a craze yeftd question and you always have the answer. Y uno the statistics. You are so deep in your knowledge. Thank you. I appreciate that. Ive been doing this for 20 years. This puts it all together and the riefocus is where are the real wealthy putting their money . Im scanning that on the screen right now. Put the code back up so i can do it. Cnbc. Com\insidewealth. Ill do it the old school way. Subscribing as we speak. There we go. I cant think of a better person to put this project out and do, because, really, your depth of knowledge, i throw questions at you all the time with no warning and you always have the answer. Thank you. You guys have been covering the space for a long time as well. Its the new gold rush of wall street. They all want to be in the business of managing the wealthiest of the wealthy. Managing offices has been huge. Its a space not really well covered or understood because they like to keep it private. So were going to tell the story. Robert, thank you. Im a subscriber. I just agreed to the terms of service, by the way. Didnt even read them. Youll be like everybody else. We wont sell your data, we promise. Coming up on the other side of this, Delta Air Lines, well bring you the latest. Plus an exclusive ivg interview with ed bastian, ceo. As we head to a break, well look at yesterdays winners and losers. Announcer winners and losers is sponsored by state street global advisers. The biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. It still does. What can you do with spy . [thunder rumbles] welcome back to squawk box. Delta air lines just reporting its quarterly numbers, and phil lebeau joins us now because hes got them. Phil, in front of a delta plane, no less. Reporter proper backdrop for talking with ed bastian. Lets go over the numbers from the First Quarter. This is the beat on the line for the First Quarter. Revenue coming in just shy of estimates at 12. 56 billion. The street was at 12. 5 billion. The numbers within the numbers . Passenger revenue versus seat mile, flat. Domestic revenue per seat finally swung positive. It had been negative for a number of quarters. Up 1. 5 . 3. 3 versus 3. 89 in 2023. The Company Knows it saw stronger Corporate Travel demand as it exaccelerated. Delta guiding for eps. Revenue growth of 5 to 7 and its reiterating its full earnings per share growth or total 6 to 7 of opi guidance. A lot is the same. Were going to be talking with Delta Air LinesCeo Ed Bastian in terms of of what were seeing for your the summer, early booking demands, jet fuel, which is rising. A lot of things to discuss today. Phil, were looking forward to that interview. A fascinating bellwether and signal about where counsel consumers are and the rest of the country. Well see you in a little bit. Home and auto rates are surging, which adds to financial pressure for consumers. Joining us right now to talk about why and whats happening is david samson. Hes the president and ceo of th