Watch for and wait and see. President hollande did not hesitate at all before rushing into the oel office meeting. As you mentioned, president obama had nothing to say as they were beginning their session deferring until this News Conference in about 30 minutes. Well see you in about 30 minutes, if not before. Thank you for that, john harwood at the white house. Of course, the Market Reaction to this morning to you. You obviously could, and were right back in the days lows. Reassessing whats going on. There are reports that its not just the turkey situation that ukraine is starting to build up again. Reports that they are shutting off the electricity to the crimea and that russia wra is, of course, cutting off natural gas to the ukraines. We have geopolitics on several fronts, and we want to find out what is the fate of the pilot. The worst possible thing to be if he were to fall into the hands of isis. Why is it worth only half a percent so far . Because its an unfolding story. People cant figure out exactly whats going to build into it. You are waiting to see you know, you had a few words out of putin. Lets see how really angry he becomes. How do the other players work out in this case. And what continues to happen. Most importantly, you got to see what happens in brussels. Do they come back in paris . If that were to happen, a second of that in paris, you would see the market react very, very strong. The most notable impact this morning, art, is the rise in oil prices. Given that this is the world that we live in now, with heightened tensions across the globe, do you expect oil to be elevated from here on out . Well, you have a couple of things going on. Oil, absolutely dreadful last week. You had a reversareversal. Although we are beginning to lose some of that will gain. Oil was up over close to 1. 50 earlier. There are a lot of pieces in play here. Watch the commodities, see how they play out. People are not assuming quite yet, and that would be potentially horrific for the market. Fed might find itself behind the curve. Do you agree . Thats a possibility, but a lot of the improvement in the gdp had to do with inventories. That will lessen the gdp in the next quarter, so it will weigh against it. I think year over year youre going to come in with a gdp up 2. 25 . Pretty much in line what everybody calls anemic. Were still datadependent. Im not quite at the 75 certainty that bond futures are. I am leaning that they will virtually almost force a hike, but i think they want to be careful. You look at the yield curve as flattening. That could say a lot of things, but not the least of which may be that the economy is slowing. After earnings, though. Well, its possible, but weve seen that the people have taken the gas savings and paid down debt or at least go out and entertain themselves. Not major purchases. Theyre not compounding it. The fed needs to be careful how the markets go. We watch here as we break through the morning lows that the defense area is 20. 65 to 20. 68. One last thing on the equities, some people have tried to argue, you look at the number of Companies Whose dividend yields are above the Corporate Bond yields or above the tenyear or both. Equities have become bondlike going into 2016. Is that fair . Would they be considered a safe haven . I would be careful of using the safe haven thing, but i think youre absolutely right. Its the only place you can get any return. People are basically buying risk where ier assets, stocks, because theyre worried about how this is going to play out. Art, were going to find out a lot more potentially in 20 minutes when the president and hollande take the microphone. Thank you very much. My pleasure. Art cashin. When we come back on this tuesday, some incredible footage of a rocket landing. Reusable rocket from Jeff Bezos Space company, blue origin. Were still awaiting the News Conference from the president and french president hollande at the white house. Well go live to washington when they begin. Dow down 73 points. Were back in just a moment. The throttle h on his little boat any harder if he tried. Hes beached here, gazing out on an unforgiving landscape. For while the people who come in here use quilted northern, a toilet paper that works so well they completely forget their experience. Daddy gator sees all and forgets nothing. Ive got to motor out of here, he thinks. This is no place to raise a child. Quilted northern. Designed to be forgotten. Welcome back, john steinberg. I have information from blue origin. A rocket from the Company Making its First Successful landing today. Makes the first rocket to successfully land and remain intact after taking off into space. Currently all rockets were either destroyed or abandoned making spaceflight expensive. Jeff bezos did talk about the future of blue origin this morning on the today show. Loo it could be just a couple of years from now. One of the great things about this vehicle is we get to fly it autonomously. It flies itself. Its kind of a flying robot, and it goes up and down without any piltsz on board. We can test it without putting any humans at risk. Were going to bring you and other passengers, were confident, up into space. Space is not so crazy anymore. I wish blue or swrin were part of amazon. If you look at web services being up 70 yearoveryear, 2 billion this quarter, and you look at what space x, elon musks company is worth, 12 million, fidelity wrote it up when they took all those mark don biz 15 . Granted, its a small position. Too bad that amazon investors dont get access to blue origin . Although they are capital intensive businesses, no doubt, and we are seeing the fruits of what is very impressive labor from blue origin. There is a lot of money spent and a lot of manpower put behind that effort along the way. I mean, actually blue origin has only raised 200 million, and space x has raised north of 1 billion. With that said, just to put some of elom musks tweets into context, the new shepherd only goes mac 3. 7. That gets you just outside into earths orbit. To actually get to the space station which is what space x won the contract for, you need to go mock 10, which is what the falcon nine, which is musks rocket is, able to do. This is a much more immature rocket than what musk is doing right now swloosh theres a lot of money to be made at the level where blue origin is going as well. You dont have to go all the way to the space station to put things into orbit, to make a lot of money, right . Can you put the capital into perspective. Outside of the orbit. If are you talking satellites and a lot of things people are going to be interested in, blue origin has absolutely. I think its cost efficient. Uber has raised 8 billion right now. Elan musk is shooting rocket ships into the air for 1 billion. Bezos is landing rockets on their tails. This strikes me as affordable unicorn land. Wait until the surge pricing makes its way to rockets. Heres what bezos wrote on twitter. The rarest of beasts, a used rocket, controlled landing, not easy, but done right, can look easy. Check out video. How much are the expectations here does he have to manage . This may not go right every time. I think this stuff is under expectations rooirp right now. I know a lot of hedge funds that have been trying to buy space x stock. He has titlely controlled the stock. I think space is under priced. Look, if space x is valued at 12 billion, and weve got Home Delivery services that are valued north of 20 billion, and were talking about putting people and stuff into space, and we though longer have a private space program. To johns point, theres 1,000 different uses for putting space and not even talking about tourism. I think this is an underpriced market, which explains why so many hedge fubdz are fighting fighting to get space x share, which are in short supply. Bezos did say that the goal is to have millions of People Living and working in space. How far off is that goal, and do you see blue origin or space x getting there first . I think every bit of modern technology that we live with ten years ago seemed unimaginable. I think selfdriving cars seemed unimaginable ten years ago. I dont know about millions, but if you told me that five or ten years from now thousands of people were going into space, whats interesting in the blue origin demo, he shows the capsule come off the top of it, which he faked with cgi, and people inside are wave, thats the only part that he faked. The rest of it alreally happened yesterday. I think its pretty close. You know, all those millions of people in space are going to be prime subscribers because how else are they going to get their stuff, right . Jeff bezos owns the rocket. Thats money eventually. All the venture that is he has, retail and amazon, cloud and amazon, droves eventually, robotics, space. This is an autonomously flown launched rocket landed rocket. And the Washington Post in content all seem to tie together at some level. It seems like he has a grand plan. I actually think its a little unfair that am sdmron investors didnt get access to this. When you look at alphabet and the fact that google put 900 million into space x, so you get a little bit of space with google, not to mention their own space. It seems like at Amazon Web Services at dlars 4 billion quarterly business, some people are saying its worth 20 billion, 30 billion, 40 billion, it seems like you would want this. Thats kindle. You got cloud. What are you . You want everything . You want the wash wash post too . You want amazon to be more of a moon shot company. I think theres an argument to be made that oring amazon should acquire blue origin. Theyre undercapitalized. Amazon has a ton of cash. Its under financeded relative to where space x is. You can either raise 900 million like space x did from google or put the 900 million in himself. Its not that crazy. At the next expedition didnt go as picture perfect as this. I think i would have made the same point. Musk has been unable so far with this Higher Powered rocket to do these kind of landings, and i still would have been out here saying 12 billion mark the 15 by fidelity. You get the drone these are the drone companies. He doesnt have a Cloud Company either, but come on. Now he needs to have a space company. Amazon should acquire blue origin. Amazon is lower. Just about 10 or so, 15 from an alltime high, a couple of days before black friday. The channel advisor numbers were that in week two there was a slight deceleration in the shopping in week two from week one. Schanl advisor points out that conversions were up 1 percentage point. Youre going into the holiday high priced and certainly strong performance. Mobile will be 30 of ecommerce, and nobody is better at consequence mating transactions than amazon. Bright holiday. Right now reusing rockets. No one is better at that. Good, guys. Good to be here. When we come back, strong words in a new piece from a former Apple Employee. The headline . How apple is giving design a bad name. One of the authors of that piece will join us. Were still waiting for president obama and french president hollande. We will go there live as soon as we start speaking. Squawk alley will be right back. Approaching medicare eligibility . You may think you can put off checking out your Medicare Options until youre sixtyfive, but now is a good time to get the ball rolling. Keep in mind, medicare only covers about eighty percent of part b medical costs. The rest is up to you. Thats where aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plans insured by Unitedhealthcare Insurance Company come in. Like all standardized Medicare Supplement insurance plans, they could help pay some of what medicare doesnt, saving you in outofpocket medical costs. Youve learned that taking informed steps along the way really makes a difference later. Thats what it means to go long™. Call now and request this free decision guide. Its full of information on medicare and the range of aarp Medicare Supplement plans to choose from based on your needs and budget. All plans like these let you choose any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients, and there are no network restrictions. Unitedhealthcare Insurance Company has over thirty Years Experience and the commitment to roll along with you, keeping you on course. So call now and discover how an aarp Medicare Supplement plan could go long™ for you. These are the only Medicare Supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an Organization Serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations. Plus, nine out of ten plan members surveyed say they would recommend their plan to a friend. Remember, medicare doesnt cover everything. The rest is up to you. Call now, request your free decision guide and start gathering the information you need to help you keep rolling with confidence. Go long™. Our next guest since apple is giving the design obscure gestures, and confusing interface rules. Bruce is a principal with Nielsen Norman group and was Apple Employee number 66. Bruce, at first when i read this piece, i didnt agree. I tried hard not to agree, but the more that you said, the more it kind of lined up with my experience as a user. That is, theyre going into watches, phones, tablets, macs and trying to stretch the rules across all those things. Its getting kind of confusing. First question for you is when did apple have it best . What was peak user interface time, and dont just say when you were running it. Im sure it was good then. It was its been good on and off since the very beginning. It was particularly good when apple had gotten small again and steve was running the company and churning out new and revolutionary products. Because steve was the usability testing function at apple. If he liked it, then it shipped. Apple lost its greatest usability person three years ago when jobs died, and the function was not taken oh by anyone based on empirical evidence. Apple is putting out products without usability testing or without anyone listening to the usability testers. Its hard to say. The result is that apple is making blenders like ios 7 where the fonts were so thin that many people over the age of 45 just simply could not read them, couldnt see them. They were medium gray and very, very thin and they just blended into the background. All they needed was one test subject to come in. It was, like, 55 years old and sit down and say, yes, would i love to do what you are asking me to do, but theres nothing on this screen but pictures. They would have realized they had a problem. So, bruce, is the issue perhaps that apple tim cook put johnny ive in charge of both hardware Industrial Design, where they continue to excel, and software and User Experience design. There used to be a tension there where, you know, neither side got everything that they wanted, but now that youve arguably got a hardware Industrial Design guy running softwares, is it skewing too much toward being pretty and too little towards being usable . Absolutely. Apples primary function is to sell products, and to that end they are doing an absolute brilliant job. Secondarily to that it would be nice if these products were usable, and thats where the problem is coming in. It is not a problem with the engineers or the designers. Theyre absolutely brilliant. The problem is they dont at the end of the process they dont or during the process they need to go back and find out whether these things are working. When you have that marriage of designing and testing and proto typing and testing and proto typing and testing, you come up with something thats much better. Steve used to do that on his own, so now someone else needs to do it. So, bruce, an investor might say, well, so what . Now weve got literally hundreds of millions of ios devices and macs all together out there. The Customer Satisfaction numbers are high on that scale. Apple appears to be doing better than ever. Does this catch up with them at some point, or is this just kind of like an argument among designers thats not going to affect the bottom line at any point . Well, investors should be saying so what because the primary function of making these things bright and shiny and generate desire is still working absolutely flawlessly. There can be a penalty ethwell, but it will be a long time come, and one reason is that everyone else is copying apple, and they dont have their own ability to discriminate between what apple is doing thats good and bad and so theyre copying both. All right. Anybody who you see looking to perhaps do it better . I know windows 10 has been out a couple of weeks. You guys seem to educate in your piece that you havent had adequate time to test it, but its been a few days since you published that. Have you had any time . Thats my partner, don, its his ballywick, and i havent gotten back to him in the last week or so, but microsoft is doing a far better job than they used to do, and certainly there is a vulnerability out there if someone wants too exploit the places that apple is doing wrong and then talk about it. So far that tha has not arisen, and whether it will, its not clear. I think investors are in great shape. Users of these products could be Getting BetterUser Experience than they are. All right. Well see who improves faster, bruce. Apple ar the competition. Thanks for joining us. We should also note we did reach out to apple for comment on this piece, but have not heard back. All right. In the meantime, obviously some red arrows for europe as they wrap up their trading day. Simon is back at post nine. Simon. It is a much worse day in europe as you can see. Theres a lot of red around. Partly because of all the concerns about travel from the state department and also of course because of the geomrekt tension between turkey and, indeed, between russia. Just for the record today, we got german gdp confirmed at an annu annualized rate. The survey of sent cement real strong. Ver