For a monday morning. Here at post nine on a day where were going to put the month of november to bed. First up, sue herrera has news at hq. Going to try it again. Will file for an ipo according to sources quoted on dow jones for 2016. That ipo will go off the board apparently. The valuation of the exchange operator, more than 2 billion. You might recall the first attempt by bats to ipo was in 2012 but it was derailed because of a software glitch. Theyre going to try it again some time in 2016. 2 billion is the estimate on the Exchange Valuation and theyre expected to file the prospectus as early as september. Joining us this morning from palo alto, the cofounder of elevation partners, roger, good to see you. Always great to be here. The cyber monday. The new normal for Holiday Shopping. The survey found that more people shopped online than in stores other the weekend. Accord to adobe, people spent 4 billion online thursday and friday. Up 14 year on year. After a more than 20minute outage, target website slowly coming back online today. For some customers, an error message still reads, so sear, but high traffic is causing delays. Roger, i want some big picture about where you think we are in this migration to online, this my brace to mobile. So the first thing to keep in mind is that whenever youre trying to understand whether were going to have a good Christmas Season or bad one at retail, theres one indicator that tells you more than anything else. And that is total employment. So right now, we have the lowest level of unemployment weve had in eight years. You would expect to have a at least good christmas for retailers if not better than that. Obviously, when you go one level down, theres a huge shift taking place. The transition first to online but more particularly to mobile has obviously caught at least some retailers off guard. So some are much better positioned than others. Youve talked about walmart. Youve talked about amazon having made huge commitments. Were there others, particularly in the luxury and very low end categories which have not made that same commitment. I think theres some really important distinctions to keep in mind. One is that there are and always will be some people for whom going to stores is just fun. They like the retail experience. If youre buying clothing for example, theres really no substitute for going into a store. So theres going to be some categories that are more or less affected by this. At the high end in particular where people have really nice smart phones and where their time is very valuable to them and youre going to see i think a more rapid migration. I think theres some retailers, tiff any in particular, which hs a terrific online competitor in blue nile is having an issue that may not be fixable without radically altering their approach. Its almost like you have to be rhonda rousy to enjoy the Holiday Shopping season. Its like an episode of maury. The brawls breaking out. Its starting to feel like a very lowrent experience to actually go out to the store. Certainly not something you want to take your kids to. At the same time, you see adobe is saying were on track for 3 billion in sales for cyber monday, the first time, again, up 14 compared to last year. As thursday and friday were. Are we in the midst of just a cultural shift towards shopping online more and more, for more and more thing, whether a drone delivers it or not . Well, i think that is correct. But at the same time, you know, lets not forget that part of what happened on black friday is the stores are try to stimulate ridiculous levels of traffic. So they have these incredible bargains. For people whose income is limited, theres really no substitute. Theres no alternative to making that transaction. And many of those people may not have a smart phone that allows them to get the same deal online. So i dont think black friday goes away completely as an idea. At least not as long as there are detailers who want to play to that. Candidly, i think some people go there for that scrumlike experience, the same people who think its fun to watch a Football Game in the snow in january. It takes all kinds. I look at this and i think youre right, theres a huge change taking place within the numbers. And theres going to be winners and losers. Obviously, amazon and walmart are better positioned than companies, like, target. Its going to play out over time. I dont think its going to be a black and white thing. The most important new thing is were at full employment or at least very near full employment. As a consequence, retailers in general are going to have a good christmas. They may scream and yell and complain between here and christmas but overall, the numbers are going to be fine. The other question is the winners and losers. This year, there are going to be greater gaps within the retailing community than weve had in some years past. Speaking of which, 4,000 fulltime emplemployees coverina space as large as 20 football field, the action of one Amazon Fulfillment Center in new jersey. Our Courtney Reagan is there. Trying to sum up cyber monday, i can say at least target is having a strong cyber monday or they were. The website went offline at least intermittently for some of its users. At amazon, the Company Expects today will be a record day. This is even after black friday topped last years results as far as units sold. But that may not be the case for every retailer. For some, cyber monday has begun to lose some momentum. As those lines between shopping events. The National Retail shopping federation says 57 of americans began their shopping before november 10th. Thats the highest number ever recorded by the group. Leaving cyber monday largely an afterthought for many of those nonprocrastinators with 50 saying theyre shopping online. Still expects 121 million americans to shop today, but that is below last years number. Here at amazon, the pep talks started early for this morning for the more than 4,000 workers that are picking and packing orders traveling along 14 miles of conveyer belts before getting to the loading dock and out the door for delivery. A mix of products from headphones to pillows to mens dress shirts. When talking on social media, ebay is dominating. Topics being talked about is actual products. It seems most of the conversation on twitter about amazon is coming from that drone delivery video, develops from the medias look inside centers like this one. Amazon did show off this new prototype. The first new model seen in about two years. It can fly 15 mile, reach an altitude of about 400 feet, but everyone still wondering when well actually see one in action. Amazon did say on its website, quote, we will deploy when we have the regulatory support needed to realize our vision. Roger, would it surprise you to see this delivering commerce, what, a year from now, five years from now, what . A year from now what surprise me a lot. Five years would not surprise me at all. To me, i think theres more going on here than just regulatory approvals. If you think through a 15mile range, what that implies is theyre going to only be able to offer this in relatively limited areas and theyll have to have a lot of control centers. You have a set of questions relative to cost. For example, how many drones can a single pilot manage at a time . What are the logistics of getting the product into the drone . Because the delivery cost of these things may be quite significant. So there may be certain classes of products like pharmaceuticalings where its a no brainer. And other categories of things where it really doesnt make sense at all. So i think amazon has a lot of issues to work out here. Im personally rather excited about it. Im terrified of the notion of hundreds of 50pound drones flying over my head all the time. But, you know, life is full of that kind of adventure and i guess were going to find out over the next couple years. Especially since they say these are headed towards back yards. That is where this fight will play out. Its interesting because we talk about employment and we have these juxtaposing images of an Amazon Fulfillment Center with thousands of employees and then of a single drone delivering a package with perhaps a pilot on the other side but noticeably less human interaction. What is the overall effect on employment from these new technologies and the changing retail landscape, even though for now it seems to be holding intact . My assumption on this, this will be an incremental Delivery Platform that doesnt substitute for anything we see today. 15mile delivery, this is not an overnight thing. This is something youre going to order now for delivery, you know, an hour or two from now. For most of the country, that will be a brandnew service from amazon. So i think it will take a long time to have an impact on employment either way. I think the really fun stuff to think about is what happens when the basset hound in the backyard sees the drone coming in and decides it needs to defend its turf. The logistical issues its going to be pretty entertaining. Its going to be pretty entertaining to watch. You know when i look at this video, i see perhaps the future of lobbying. We ought to keep in mind, this is not a product that amazon is selling. Its not a product that its using right now to deliver products. Because it cant it put this out for the broader public to rally support behind its agenda. I mean, thats really interesting. How often have we seen that . This is amazon propaganda. Well, its amazon doing the same thing that uber did before it, right, which is thats a really insightful point because at the end of the day without someone of amazons scale promoting droe ining drones fori would think the regulatory inertia would stop the thing for decades. Amazon has a lot of resources. Has some influence in washington. They obviously are very determined to get this done. So its i presume something is going to happen. I just wonder what its going to look like when its done because im not even sure amazon knows, but i cant wait to find out. No coincidence. Im sure theyre putting this out on their busiest day of the year when everybodys ordering amazon packages and wondering when theyre going to get here. Theyre definitely going hostile on this bid. Its good to see you, roger. Well talk to you soon. Always a pleasure. We do want to get a check in on the markets. The dow has just gone back into positive territory. It started there earlier in the day, but on a slew of some disappointing data, namely chicago pie. And the talk of potentially tepid holiday sales for the retailers. The s p 500 and the nasdaq are still there, but theyre all still trending positive. Microsoft is in the green after getting upgraded to strong buy at raymond james. The first saying it looked for a while that the company perhaps missed mobile but is now well positioned in the clourd going forward, and that is enough to bring microsoft shares up. Fit bit rallying after being upgraded to overweight by barclays. The firm says fit bit is a proven company and the recent slide in the stock is what it called unjustified. Tis the season for some fit bit givers. Well see. Like johns when we come back, well find out how people are spending, so far, this Holiday Season from a leader in mobile payments. Plus, a closer look at the top gifts in tech this weekend. What 116 Million People in ebay are shopping for. And its backed by big names like eric schmidt, barry diller. Were live with the company being called the uber for helicopter when squawk alley continues. The throttleuldnt push on his little boat any harder if he tried. Hes beached here, gazing out on an unforgiving landscape. For while the people who come in here use quilted northern, a toilet paper that works so well they completely forget their experience. Daddy gator sees all and forgets nothing. Ive got to motor out of here, he thinks. This is no place to raise a child. Quilted northern. Designed to be forgotten. The markets change. At t. Rowe price. Our disciplined approach remains. Global markets may be uncertain. But you can feel confident in our investment experience around the world. Call us or your advisor. T. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. The payment space is expanding with the likes of android pay leading the pack. Are mobile payments really catching on with consumers especially during this Holiday Shopping season . Joining us is gary norcross. Who better to have to talk about this because you actually provide the infrastructure for retailers, for banks, for small businesses. What did you see this past weekend . First, thank you for having me back on. It was a busy weekend for us. These transition volumes are spreading across just black friday. Were seeing early shopping. Were seeing it throughout the Holiday Season. Were hearing people talk about getting frustrated with the transition to chip cards, the waits in line are too long. Is that real or is that just the natural griping . Youll see some people being confused with the new technologies as it rolls out but frankly were seeing good results from these rollouts and were seeing these options. What impact are you seeing from the rollout of apple pay and all its cousins across other platforms . You settle more than 1 trillion a year in transactions. You surely would have insight into that. Is that the thanksgiving phenomena when youre not at your computer but youre coming down off the turkey, youre able to make a purchase . Where are you seeing it . Were seeing good strong Adoption Across all the channels. So anything that generates a transactions positive. Whether it comes through apple pay, point of sales, some other online medium, were excited about anything that creates transaction volumes to the card. What big needs to be done now . What are you trying to get tipped over the ledge . As we have a lot of this into consumers mindset . We just successfully closed our sun guard acquisition today, more than a 9 million transacti transaction. As you guys know were the leader not only in core Bank Processing but retail payments. This moves us into Capital Management wealth manager. Were excited about that combination as we grow. Now makes 25 of our revenue offshore which get us in highgrowth markets. Were going to be focused on the short term on getting in on the transaction, making sure we get our costs out, make sure we serve our clients and accelerate our growth. I know youve been focused on this but you said in the last Conference Call that the macro environment is difficult, its challenging. Im wondering what about it is challenging when you have a large scale Cyber Security breach largely out of the conversation this year and consumers more willing to spend . Were seeing good results in our u. S. Based business, but were starting to see some macro trends. Were one of the largest Third Party Processors of payments in brazil, but were seeing good strong growth in asia to offset that. Seeing kind of mild to medium growth, you know, throughout europe. In the u. S. , in the large bank market, in some of our professional services sets, where we have personal bank business, were seeing some head winds related around customization of some software, but all in all were very bullish on u. S. Markets and what we have going on abroad as well. I know youll be busy for the next few weeks for sure. I think this one will take a little more than a couple of weeks. Gary nor cross, the ceo of fis. Next, the must have items on this Holiday Weekend. Pretty decent start to the week in europe. Simons back at post nine to wrap up the trading day. The big news during the course of the week is that ecb meeting on thursday. Stocks actually hit in europe a 3, 3 1 2month high in advance of that. Expectations are running really high. Virtually everybodys put out a report this morning on what they expect from the ecb. Clearly the euro has been shifting. Youve had one hell of a move as we close out now november for european stocks. A loss of 4 on the euro. Against the u. S. Dollar. As the two Central Banks move in the opposite direction. The yields, the spreads between the rates basically reaches a decade high. Let me get you through exactly what people are suggesting we will get from the ecb on thursday. And bear in mind the huge possibility of disappointment here. The ecb has so stoked the pots, its really going to have to deliver. The belief is they will increase the intensity of buying. They will lengthen the duration of the buying beyond september of next year. And maybe diversify the list of what they can buy. Has even suggested they might signal theyll abandon the set percentage of buying in each country what we call the capital key. Most importantly, they will cut the deposit rate below the existing minus 0. 2 . Thats important because they said they cant buy bonds below that deposit rate. As they lower and lower that level, more bonds become available to buy. Currently, because this huge rally weve had on the bond market in europe, youve got about onethird of eurozone bonds that currently trade beyond that benchmark. So lowering it makes them eligible for buying. Which is why theyve driven the yield down because they think the ecb will come in behind and buy them. One of the top gainers we have in europe today is volkswagen which is up now 5 . They basically come forward with a prototype of how they might deal with their problem in europe with the german transport ministry. That could be the prototype moving forward. The point here really is from the lows we had at the beginning of the crisis. Were now 44 euros higher. So beyond this talk here of how there might be a restructuring and volkswagen could face severe difficulties, those who bought at that point will have a 50 return on their investment. Guys, back to you. Took some nerve to buy down there. The new video, pretty entertaining, but its more than just eye candy. Hes with us in a moment to explain. But what if you could see more of what you wanted to know . With fidelitys new active trader pro investing platform, the information thats important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. Its your idea powered by active trader pro. Another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. Call our specialists today to get up and running. Good morning, again, everyone. Heres your cnbc news update. President obama calling the meeting of word leaders in paris a, quote, turning point, in the fight against climate change. In a speech