Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Alley 20160208 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Alley 20160208

Of chesapeake, the second today. Bob pisani on the floor. This is different. Im in front of the host for chesapeake. This is news pending. Recall earlier, these were halted for volatility. That is intraday volatility. And thats sort of a mechanical halt that happens. This is the news pending, so well find out what, if anything, the Company Might have to say at this point. I just want to mention whats going on with some of the overall market right now. Because were sitting not far from the lows for the day here. Sectors in terms of the declines were seeing, financials, consumer discretionary, tech and energy. And, of course, utilities down a bit, but not down nearly as much. Its been a remarkable time here. I want to put up some of the financials and show you. Were having rather notable declines, including Morgan Stanley and bank of america, some of the money center banks, weaker, 4 or 5 than the overall market and regional names, but not nearly as much. Ive also opinion been pointing out since thursday or friday, consumer names weak, as well, home depot and starbucks. Nike down about 12 in the last four or five, six sessions here. Under armour also down. This is similar to what happened on friday, as well. I also want to note that the utilities are continuing to outperform. Your coneds, duke, southerns, all doing better than the overall market and all up today. Of course, these have been beneficiaries on the wave of investor uncertainty and the tenyear treasury yields have moved to the down side. All of the utilities have been big beneficiaries and there you see a move on the up side for them. For the year to date, theyre double digit gainers for most names. I dont usually talk about utilities, but its rather remarkable when you have 13 increases in con ed and chesapeake and duke. Southern also doing well for a yeartodate double digit gains here. So a sign of investor anxiety youre getting these enormous outperformances in the utilities. Even companies that with modest dividends yields have been strong. A good example are water companies. I dont normally talk about American Water works or rocco america. These are small companies. But theyre also up. Up most up today. And theyre up notably yeartodate. And theyre modest yields, only 2 . Not nearly as good as others. The utilities typically pay 3 or 4 , but some are moving into those names, as well. Finally, the Telecom Stocks ive wanted to mention for a while. They are down slightly today, but at t and verizon, last week and this week as well outperformers. At t up 6 . Verizon up 8 . These pay healthy yields, 4 or 5 dividend yields for both of them. So thats been a notable outperformer. And by the way, you think it doesnt matter if you compare the dividend payers and Telecom Stocks to the nondvd payers, the sprints, tmobiles and u. S. Cellular. They had notably poor performance overall on the year compared to their dividendpaying brethren. So right now dow sitting near the lows today, down 341. Still news pending on chesapeake. Ill stand here and see if we can find out the news and get it to you as soon as weve got that. Carl, back to you. Bob, thank you very much, bob pisa pisani, on the heels of fridays punishing session, especially for tech stocks. And the nasdaq this morning, ed lee, is 65 points from what we would call a bear market . 20 off the highs . Right. Things like linkedin, yelp today reports tonight theyre not helping. Linkedin was interesting, because despite the fact they had lower guidance, what caused the selloff. You also saw their user growth also slowing down a bit. I think that was the bigger sign for a lot of vesters, the way it had been for twitter for so long. Whats interesting, social networks in general, i think at least in the u. S. , youre getting a sense of a bit of a plateau, starting to tap out a bit. Facebook has been able to grow, because they have been doing it internationally. And linkedin, twitter, social Media Company x, whatever it might be, they need to find growth outside the states, so thats where the gap is. Theres been this propensity all year to sell winners, and buy some of the stocks that have been beaten down. Linkedin among those names that have been winning, and we saw that as soon as they stopped winning, investors just threw in the towel. Is that going to keep happening or do you think linked in was so overvalued, it had been a Long Time Coming . I think its cheap now anyway. I think, frankly, the way i see it, twitter, for better and worse, set the narrative. Social media stocks, tech stocks in general, when it comes to user growth and that narrative. People are paying that much closer attention to that. That is the fundamental for a lot of Tech Companies, web companies, basically, whether youre a publisher or, you know, sort of an accountbased servli that. What is happening in tech is extreme, more than the overall numbers. You look at the nasdaq down 2. 6 . I look at my screen, yelp down more than 11 . You know, at last seen, down 10 . Workday down 8. 5 , near the levels where it ipoed, there are some pretty extreme action happening here. Im not convinced that linkedin has stopped winning. Its different from facebook. Its user Growth Numbers have fluctuated. Its trying to grow internationally and also trying to simplify its app and process, actually pare down the number of page use to make the experience better. Theyre housecleaning. Im not sure that investors are being that discriminating about how theyre punishing and whom theyre punishing. I wonder if there are deals had been had in this market. Thats a great point. I agree, actually, that fundamentally companies at linkedin are doing perfectly fine. I dont think theyre sort of crawling off a cliff any time soon. I do think there is heightened scrutiny among investors in the sense that if there is any arbitrage i can exploit here, this tiny little miss, im going to try to own that. Just because the way twitter has been acting lately, at least among the investor group, i think thats sort of the weird Feedback Group were seeing with a lot of companies. And layered on top of that was this controversy over the weekend. Users erupted over the weekend after this buzz feed report showed the company was moving to an algorithmic feed like you would find on facebook versus that purely chronological feed, riptwitter trended nationally for the weekend, and then jack dorsey took to twitter to respondent. Quote, i want you to know were always listening and never plan to reorder time lines next week. Next week. Thats the specific qualifier. Not next week. Maybe the week after or month later. Look, i think this is overblown, right . I think theres nothing quite like the Twitter Community to respond to twitter changes, so it sort of heightens the reaction. Part of the reason why theyre reacting so strongly, what defines twitter is the realtime nature to it, which is why, you know, if youre within journalism, in news media, its a great medium for us. It works well that way. You want to see whats happening at the moment. Super bowl yesterday. Thats twitter is a great medium for following along. The water cooler talk. You want to see what people are saying, given whats happened. This drives me crazy. What also defines twitter is being clubby and esoteric. Crowd party. Exactly. So change it, jack. Go ahead, do it. Mark zuckerberg does this all of the time, looks at the data, figures out the core product needs, makes the change. Yes, he tells the community, we hear you, blah, blah, blah, but hey, were doing it anyway. Separate app for facebook messenger. By the way, the growth was huge after that. Youve got to have your convictions and change, especially if youre twitter and you havent made enough changes. Yeah, and every single facebook change to the feed, to the app, was met with criticism. But the company rested on the fact they think they know more about what you want than what the user can actually say. That they want. And they work almost every time. And continue to grow. And i think thats sort of the slippery slope with any of these networks which is the Community Versus the company, right . I think the community, they own it so many ways. You cant let them control it either. I think youre right. There is a clubby aspect to twitter that makes it harder to grow outside the weird elite group that likes to use it. It is an esoteric medium. They call us weird and elite . Guilty. But were not enough to support an entire platform, the four of us. By the way, adam bane, twitters president and coo joins us at 10 00 a. M. After they have earnings wednesday night. Be sure you tune into that. Lastly, the winners and losers from the ads in the super bowl shaking out. A number of Tech Companies buying ads from tmobile to amazon. Go pro, fit bit. Super bowl ads generated 476 million views, and that was just online, according to ispot tv. A lot of startups. A lot of startups. And you know, i think that was always historically, since 2000, Online Companies and Internet Companies took advantage of the super bowl eyeballs, let them know we exist kind of a thing. Now its sort of regular, right . Internet companies are like any companies. You want to be out there as a commodity, as a player. I think thats part of what were seeing. But if youre Dollar Shave Club or sofi. Dollar shave club is below 1 billion. Sofi, 4 billion. 5 billion on a 30second spot . Thats a gamble. A lot of Internet Companies generally dont do marketing or spend money on marketing. Viral word of mouth is what they rely on. Theyre going to make a standard ad play and theyll do this one and one a year, maybe, whatever that is, and hopefully last them through. I have one question about the mood in the valley. And that is, after all this pain, after all this talk about twitter, maus in general, super bowl aside, is there a sense for all those who saw this coming . The bill gurleys of the world, waving flags on valuation . Are they now saying, told ya . I think its a good question. Bill gurley is still the outlier. Very boosterish, bullish, strong, dont worry, its going to be fine, not like in 2000 or 2001 or 2008 in the recession. I think they still have a lot of confidence, despite everything. Got to wonder about that. Yes. I keep hearing that the mood has changed, though. I wonder what happens over the next quarter, as some of this starts to sink in. Some things that happen in the valley filter up to the markets. Some things that happened in the markets i feel like filtered down through the valley. People would argue with my up down there. But when it comes to money and kind of moneydriven changes in mood, i dont know. Yeah, deal flow starts to slow down. Thats going to have a direct effect on your sentiment, right . I think there is an up down flow, youre right. But also this weird wall that happens. Whatever the negative sentiment might be in terms of numbers and money not coming in, it hits a wall and doesnt filter down into the rank and file. And you know, why do i say rank and file, thats where the entrepreneurs and startup ideas come from. Some midheavily engineer hooks up up with an investor. I want to do this startup. They still thrive off that idea, that conceit. They need to live by it. But a lot of startups are being told to cut their way to growth. There needs to be a path to profitability. Thats real. Does that change the sentiment for people considering going to private companies over, say, employment out of big, stable, Public Company . You know, talent sort of migration is an issue out there. At the same time, they like to believe and you know, i want to hit it rich and big. Thats how they pay their employees, the promise on getting rich through equity. Thats a tougher sell right now. Ed, well talk more later. Sure. Meanwhile, were still watching a dramatic selloff in the markets, again, following the dramatic selloff we saw on friday. Dow down by 376 points, two and a third percent. Were keeping a close eye on the nasdaq. 41. 85 marks bear market territory down 20 from the high it hit in july. Carl . When we come back, the selloff in tech the focus this morning. Well talk to a tech portfolio manager. Cloud companies feeling the pain, amazons, microsoft, sales force down 10 in just the last week. And which brands won the Super Bowl Ad wars . Bitly measured the response, and will join us later with some results. Session lows down 376. Back in a moment. Im here at the Td Ameritrade trader offices. Steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on . Let me show you. Okay. Our thinkorswim Trading Platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. Okay, cool. Hang on a second. You can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. Impressive. Whats up, tim. Td ameritrade. Tech sector getting clobbered this morning, nasdaq down 3 , even after suffering its worst day since september on friday. The nasdaq inching closer to bear territory, down almost 19 from its july intraday high. So are we nearing a bottom in tech . Walter price is a tech Fund Portfolio manager at allianz global investors. Good monday morning to you. Thank you. Walter, it seems to me that this is a little bit different than even just the raw percentage overall would suggest. I see a lot of names that are down more than 6 or 7 . Whats going on here, and as certain stocks start to trade near the area where they went public, is it time to buy some of these . I think its still a little early, because i think you need to get the guide downs or the inputs from the companies on how their business is dealing with this more difficult economy before you can see the stocks bottom. You know, if you look at past bear markets in 2008 or even 2011, i think you needed a couple guide downs from the companies before you could say i think the bottom is in. So i you know, i think you need to have many of these companies that are yet to report to talk about how theyre handling the slow down and what their plans are before you can go in and buy the stocks. So we saw something similar from are cognizant this morning than what we saw from linkedin last week. And linkedin got absolutely clobbered, down more than 40 after it reported a weak guide. But it was taken down to 2012 levels. Does that sort of punishment for the stock make sense to you, based on what they reported . Well, i think linkedin had a very high multiple. It still has a very high multiple. So, you know, i think the higher your multiple, the more vulnerable you are to a guide down, because your multiple is based on the growth rate, and so if you take the growth rate down, then peoples estimates of earnings in 2018 where theyre probably valuing the stock have to come down a lot. So i think that was what happened with linkedin. In the case of cognizant, you have a lot lower multiple, so expectations are lower, growth rates are lower, and so you know, moderate guide down in their growth rate from 14 to 12 at the midpoint is still, you know its still going to cause the stock to go down, but not as much. Even so, walter, the comparisons to the internet bubble of the early 2000s are starting to come back to the floor this morning with usa today and fortune but fortune writes, this time tech isnt the problem, its just party to other problems. Do you agree with that . Yeah, i think in i think in 2000, you had a lot of companies valued on sales, and they werent really making money. They had models about how they could make money, whereas i think many of the Tech Companies, even the high growth Tech Companies now are generating Free Cash Flow or operating cash flow, and so, you know, theyre a lot closer to valuation metrics that you could put traditional pes on or price to cash flow on or numbers like that. So walter, really quickly, you talk about these guide downs. Weve gotten a few guide downs. Im not sure whether youre talking about youre waiting for earnings season to come to a close. Also, a bull might try to argue at this level that dollar moderating, buybacks returning, might lend some support shortterm. Why dont you buy that . Because i think that its just too early. I think that, you know, what you have seen is companies say, oh, you know, business is a little tougher in the fourth quarter, and were guiding conservatively in the first quarter. But you know, the stock market is a leading indicator of corporate business. And so, you know, i think business is probably going to get a little bit tougher. And so i think you have to get that in expectations. You would like to see the company say, you know, business is tougher and the stock not going down 20 that day, before you feel confident that expectations are at the right place. So walter, is there blood in the water . I look at microsoft. Its down to just october levels, where some other companies who operate in some of the spaces, where the microsofts of the world are looking to grow. Theyre down at levels where they were two, three years ago. Are we going to start seeing m a off this action now that some of those stocks are cheap . I think we could start to see some m a. I think that, you know, as i look at some of these highgrowth companies, if i look out over two or three years, i can see quite a bit of appreciation in their stock prices and i think that companies that kind of missed the cloud or missed some of these sas markets will start to look more seriously at these companies as they get pushed down. All right. Walter price from allianz, thanks so much for joining us. Thank you. Chesapeake remains halted, but is that what the statement saying currently no plans to pursue bankruptcy and addressing reports about retaining kirkland and ellis. David is back with that. Well be dealing with these kinds of situations perhaps more often in coming days and weeks when youre dealing with companies that have as much data course as chesapeake does, carl. But to your point, the statement saying theyve worked with kirkland and ellis since 2010. They continue that being kirkland and ellis to advise the companies that seeks to further strengthen its Balance Sheet. But as carl said, chesapeake currently has no plans to pursue bankruptcy, for all value for all shareholders. It is the second largest producer of natural gas in the country. 12th largest producer of oil and natural gas liquids. It has, oh, over 9 billion i

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