Italian bonds and shares following after cabinet leaders, Silvia Berlusconi threatens a new election. Well talk with ross westgate. Hsbc purchasing Managers Index is showing growth. It has been below expectation. Thats three big stories for a monday morning, joe. All of them probably more important than any merger that could happen on a merger monday. 6 beltway ben. I think hell have an answer. Hell have an answer. Redskins won finally. Redskins won finally. Can we take a look. Do we have the stock of gray matters by the way . Are you pumping another one of your pieces . I dont want to talk breaking bad at all if we can avoid it. Do you think the stock may be up or down . I dont know. I dont know where it will be this morning. I dont have an article about it. Given what it must be something to do with gray matter and the final episode which i havent seen. I mean, i saw the daily news which says dont say it. Its on the front page. You should not spoil it. Its on the front page. For people who go to sleep early. They should not need to know breaking dead. Breaking dead. Theres a show on amc that has dead in the headline. Does it have a picture of walter white . Its a show you like though. Theyre walking. It ruined it for me. Walking dead is coming soon. Do you think anyone watched homeland last night . No, but a lot of people will watch it tonight. Theyll watch it on demand. Welcome to the future. I didnt see the patriots i saw the beginning of the patriots. I cant believe that they would launch i mean, why would you launch homeland on the same day. Sunday night football is the Biggest Network event of the week. Rightly so. I was thinking of having to tape breaking bad so i could stick with football. Do you believe that for a second . Thats a dirty, low down lie. I know for sure. I thought you were going to say have you ever taped a Football Game . Never mind. Football isnt tapeable. It is thats true. But thats the beauty of network television. You should watch every commercial and buy those products that are advertised on nbc. Oil this morning has been buffeted by things in the middle east more but well see if were going to shoot ourselves in the foot and cause an economic slowdown. The ten year will be bullish for bonds as well you would think. 261 now on the ten year. Thats going to be interesting to watch where the ten year goes. The dollar has been weaker although thats better. 1. 35 is kind of the cutoff for the trip, european vacation. Im going to mexico. If it gets below 1. 30, then when did you do japan . Thats so far. Isnt it on be the other side of the world . It is. Yeah. Thats difficult. Have you been . Youve been. Ive been. Sushis good. The sushis good. Thats one of the reasons youre still in the city, right . They have access to all of the international. Chinese food, sushi, dry cleaning. Quick look at gold. I dont know where to tell you where gold heads on any of this. I can make a case for gold going up or down. Were all talking about it, shutdown of the government could impact squawks breaking news programming. One of the unintended consequences could mean a delay in the big jobs report which is due on friday. Thats how we gauge the next fed move and whether the last fed move was right. I saw john harwood. Sometimes its fluffy. Today it looked a little limp. So you fixed it. Thats good. I didnt do anything, joe. It dried. It dried. It was a shower, it gets wet, then it dries. So you acknowledge earlier it was wet because you just got in the office. I was happy to see yeah, i hadnt been up for a few hours. I will cop to that. Im with you. Youre doing great. But i was happy to see the redskins yesterday. Yeah. I have to tell you, i did not watch most of the redskins game. Ill bet you didnt because this is pretty compelling, this stuff. No, no, no, thats not why. Oh, why . Because i was o on a little bit of a homeland bender in the runup to the first of season three catching up. Then i did watch the season three open last night no kidding . Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, i kind be of have gotten conditioned by the first three games of the season to getting my expectations down. I can come back to it later when rg3s knees a little bit healthier. You could be a bengals fan then if youre conditioning yourself like that. How are they doing right now . 22. Cant beat the browns. I dont know. You know my team. Hows andy dalton playing . Hes okay. My team has always been and will always be the broncos. I went to school in colorado. Well, thats a happy story. Yeah. Im a broncos fan. Im a denver fan. Ill always be im really quick to jump on the bandwagon. Pretty fun to see peyton with weapons. He is just unbelievable, isnt he . He has wes welker over there, too. Anyway, john, 18 hours because its 6 00 a. M. I came up with that quickly. 12 hours to 6 00 p. M. And then six more hours and then we see, right . It is a drama of trying to figure out when is the moment at which john boehner cuts loose the 20, 30, 40 Tea Party Republicans who have been hijacking his strategy. Can that happen tonight . If the Senate Passes a clean extension of government funding, will john boehner say to those people, hey, guys, sorry. Were going to go ahead with an extension of government funding and were going to do it without you or do they need the backlash, market reaction, the phone calls from wall street donors to say to the Republican Party after a couple of days, nows the time when youve got to do it . Thats what were thats the end point were getting to. Theres going to be an extension of government funding. The question is when does boehner make it happen, either with republicans or with republicans and democrats. What about a bill that just does the medical device thing and everybody says were all happy . You know, i think the medical device tax may go away, but i dont think its going to go away in this process. You know, it is theyve got 79 people who have gone on record in the senate saying theyre against it. Its not that hard of a target, but democrats believe that theyre and republicans believe that democrats are winning this fight because it is so clear whats going on that they can hold out and pass a clean extension of funding. Maybe theres a wink and a nod and say, yeah, we will get rid of this tax a month from now or two weeks from now or after you raise the debt limit or Something Like that, but i dont think its going to happen in this process. All right. So whats your well be done by when . Well be done within 48 hours . What do you think . Itll shut down for a little while . Yes. I think thats a reasonable expectati expectation, within 48 hours. Thats only done on this portion of the fight, joe. Weve still got to go through this on the debt limit. I was talking to somebody in the Republican Leadership over the weekend who said the way that this the government funding gets extended is that the speaker puts it on the floor and a bunch of democrats vote for it, a bunch of republicans and the republican resisters, theyre all going to be voting no but hoping it passes, what they call the hope yes vote no caucus because they know that theres a lot of heat on their party but theyre not going to be associated with it. The question is, you know, when exactly does that moment come . And i think within 48 hours but what this aid was telling me is whenever we get to the debt limit, which is supposed to be raised on the 17th of october, we have to go through the same back and forth again to get that done. Okay. John, dont go anywhere. We want to bring ben white into the conversation. Hes politicos chief economic correspondent. Does what john said make any sense to you . Do you want to differ with him . No, i dont think id differ with him. I think theres you know, the republicans want some sort of victory in whatever goes through the senate. They want the medical device tax in there. I think john is right that harry reid and the democrats in the senate are not going to give up on that. They think they have a winning hand here. Therefore, youre saying we get shut down. We get shut down unless boehner can get closer to the moment. How many days . Couple of days. A couple of days. The heat grows on republicans. No chance of just a weeklong extension . Theres a chance of that. You can get a clean seven day extension out of the house and through the senate. You have to get what to happen before that . What kind of fig leaf, olive branch has to happen . Thats the problem. House republicans need something in a funding resolution they can point to and say we got that. The medical devices tax would be the one thing. There are so Many Democrats who have medical device contributors who dont like it. So far the democrats are so hard lined that were not giving away anything. Theyre not going to give into hostage takers. I dont see how you get that. That doesnt mean you dont get a short extension that passes with mostly democrats and some republicans. Thats possible. You did this in morning money. Do it for the viewer. What does the world look like with the government truly shut down . What is shut down and what isnt . Well, all nonessential stuff is shut down. National parks. Normal people are not going to notice that much right away because the military will get funded. Your trash is still going to get picked up. There wont be a lot of immight yaet impact on the real world. Thats less pressure on republicans to cave. If it drags on longer i think the impact is bigger on confidence, its bigger on the economy at large. The real problem to me is if you drag on this fight for a couple of weeks you come right up against the diebt limit. Government is still shut down. Then you get more reaction in the bond market. Maybe that raises the pressure ultimately. Is there an arg ghumt bad news is good news and if you get the shutdown it forces the issue on the debt ceiling and you dont have a problem . Theres a chance of that. Thats the goldie locks scenario. House republicans who arish itching for a fight, they say we stood up to obama on obama care. Then it turns around. The polls are bad for them. Boehner can say, we did the best we can. We have to raise the limit and move on. There are a lot of things going on. Whether we shut down or not, theyre going to roll out obama care. Yes. Theres these glitches. No one has tested the system yet. They point out that people that they need to sign up even if theres the slightest glitch at the start and it doesnt work out, that can poison the experience for netanyahu people to mess it up. Then the democrats can say that we could have rolled this out if the government hadnt been shut down. It almost gives them cover for if the republicans stood aside. You think obama care might be it might not be a great roll out. Might fall apart eventually. It might. The democrats will say people will enjoy the benefits when they get them. Im not saying thats right. Thats their hope. Explain the political calculus here. I dont understand. We keep talking about how the republicans are holding it up. My question is if thats true, what happens to 2014 . Twhoops 2016 . I think with 39 Approval Rating for obama care, i think a lot of people are like i dont like it. I dont like it either. I dont like what the republicans are doing but i agree basically with the principle of not letting the law go forward. Joe, this is when you look at the polls on obama care, there are more people who will say that they dont like it than like it but this is very much a partisan deal. That is to say, democrats like it, republicans dont like it. Theres a good bit of intensity to the Republican Opposition but people dont move very much. Theyre going to react to the law based on the personal experience that they have with it if its a bad experience, thats going to be bad news for democrats. Theres one thing to move it along, theres another thing to not have a shutdown. I havent seen the poll. Do you not like the law . Republican leader well, andrew, weve done polling on this and the polling says do you want obama care defunded . A plurality of people say, no, we do not want it defunded even if more people say they dont like the law, they dont want it defunded. Secretarily, if the defunding involves a shutdown its overwhelming against it. This is why the smarter republican strategist within the house caucus are afraid. Thats why theyre trying to beat the tea party is they believe this is the one thing that could jack hammer them out of the majority of the house of representatives. Its not easy at all for democrats to win the majority back. Theyre not likely to do it. But if you have a shutdown, a debt crisis, everyones going to see where it came from and it came from the Tea Party Wing of the Republican Party. Thats how they could lose it. Thats why theyre so republicans are so concerned about it. Just one final point, let you guys chew on this. This is the first strategy the first standoff that ive seen that is so disconnected from normal legislative back and forth. I was on with jim nussel in worldwide exchange. This is jim nussel who was once a renegade house member, bushs omb director. I dont even know what victory looks like. We had him on last week. No one could get a word in edgewise. He was so animated. I dont know what hes smoking. Everyone involved in this knows that the speaker himself is against the strategy that hes pursuing. He just hasnt been able to stop it. Well see. No ones Approval Ratings are going up right now. Well see what happens in 2014. If i were you, id just keep your eye on the senate too, john. Youre going to be putting out fires all over the place. The senate isnt necessarily, you know, going to go the way Everyone Wants at this point for you either. So youre going to be putting fires i dont know about for me but republicans have got it shot. Im tickling you. Im tickling beltway ben here, too. Republicans have a shot to take over the senate. No, but you may think theyre going to get tarnished. I dont think president obama i dont think his numbers are going up in the midst of all of this. Everybody gets hurt but republicans have more on the line. Up negotiate with iran but you wont make a call to the leaders of the house . I mean, youre hearing that a 4r09. That sounds good but doesnt mean anything. I know. Still, people remember that. You know, its his biggest really it looks like his biggest enemies are not assad, putin, or rowhani. Theyre frenemies. The real enemies are tea party guys. Thats crazy. You know who doesnt believe in the effectiveness of that talking point . Every single republican strategist you can find. Theres nobody who thinks what the Tea Party Caucus is doing is smart politics. I know. Well see. Nobody is winning here. Nobody looks good. Even the journal here. Ryan and obama. The leader of the budget parties neither one is around. Its not the budget. We wanted to have ryan on the show. Remember that point. This is not about the budget. Forget about what i said. You were pouring over the guest list. Thank you for the report. Ben will be with us. Im not going to out you on that. I love you. You just did. Im not paying that much attention. Time for the Global Markets report. Tros westgate standing by in london. Ross, you come prepared. Whats the worst bond yields that were seeing in these new countries that are getting screwed up . Were not back dating. Were near where we were in italy, arent we, even though it was a rough weekend . Yeah, no, were not. Spreads over about 300 bases points which is the widest for, what, about, i dont know, 12 months or so but nothing dramatic. Equities have been dragged lower by u. S. Performance and whats going on with u. S. Politics. 9 to 1 advancers being outpaced by decliners. The ftse was down 1. 3 . Xetra dax, cac carant down. At the weekend mr. Bur lus skoeb any ordered five people to leave. There was a conference scheduled for tomorrow but its been delayed to wednesday. The Berlusconi Party has been fairly split. At the moment the hawks seem to have won the power. They would like elections as soon as possible. So well see. This confidence vote, therefore, is going to be fairly tight on wednesday. If it doesnt get enough support the government will collapse. There may be enough time to get some measures through, particularly they need to support an electoral change. They dont want another election because thats whats thrown up the instability at the moment. They may be able to get support from them. It has causerd the ftse to fall. Its also meant the banks have gone down fairly heavily in italy as weve seen yields rise. Italian banks have gone lower. Down between 2 1 3 and 3 1 4 . The ceo effectively resigned by the board over the weekend. It was expecting he would step down at some point but hes gone earlier than expected. Lets show you where we stand with italian yields. They have gone up to 4. 64 . We were higher this morning up to 4. 73. We had that spread between italian yields and german bond yields, clearly below that at around 290 bases points. Thats where we stand. Back to you. Ross westgate. Thank you for that. Coming up, all bad things must come to an end. Joes mouth is dropping here. No. Breaking bad Season Finale aired. Advertisers put up big bucks to be part of walter whites return to new mexico. We have that story when we return. Do you think it should be out and about or do you think they should do it in icahns office . We went last wednesday . We went to michaels. Table 4. Table 4. Do you know where table 4 is . I dont even know. In the back. Great second room. You looks at fish bowl lunch at michaels and theres a chart and a diagram. Youre such a media powerhouse that you get one of these thats gary dollos table. We get, hes not there. We can sit you at barrys table. We have another table to talk about. I promise we wont spend thing. All bad things do come to an end. Breaking bad. I dont want to see this. Youre not missing anything here. The amc show reportedly pulled in up to 400,000 for 30 seconds of ad time. Not super bowl money but not bad for cable. The spots are the same price range as shows like american idol, modern family. Its saying amc has underutilized cable channels. Stock is up 35 this year. Berns says it could climb another 20 . You have a number of other shows coming out. Sol is coming back. Theyre going to put that show together. I wonder, it must be in the works now, what the plot is going to be . Because hes multitalented. I want to buy vince gilley began stock. He signed a show with cbs. He has this amc show, cbs show. Walking dead starts next week. Weve been counting down the days. According to an in house expert, my son, i think theres going to be a spinoff of walking dead which has other people other than