Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20131125 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box November 25, 2013

And create less uranium, not enough to build a nuclear weapon. In exchange, the world will halt further economic sanctions and allow iran to get 6 to 7 billion from frozen accounts. Plus, iran agrees to daily inspections. Its not based on trust, its based on verification. Reporter the deal slows down Irans Nuclear program but doesnt stop it. Thats whats got israel concerned. This agreement has made the world a much more dangerous place. Its an historic mistake. Reporter even some of the president s closest allies dont think its enough. Its disappointing to me that iran is still going to be allowed to enrich while theyre talking. We just feel more pressure needs to be brought on iran. We have all the leverage in the negotiation and weve let them out of the trap. Reporter it took a year of secret meetings to get this far. President obama insists this framework will lead to a more comprehensive agreement in six months. Tracie potts, nbc news, washington. Our chief International Correspondent will join us with more on this story in just about 30 minutes. Then well be talking oil with an Energy Policy analyst as well. Brian, ill send it over to you. Becky, thank you very much. It is a big morning here. While we get a check on the broader markets because we have a global melt up. Futures indicating a higher open for futures stocks. Andrew told you at the top were on a lucky seven week streak. Everything in europe is higher. All the major indexes are on the rise led by germany which is up just under 1 . Japan continues to rock. Theyre leading the way in asia this morning. The nikkei 2. 25. They are now up 50 year to date. China not participating. The hang seng and the shanghai down. 10 year treasury note still hovering around 2. 75 . The yield is up. The bond is down. The dollar is little changed against the euro. About 1. 35 per euro. And gold down 1 . Guys, the story is certainly the stock market weakening. Japan continues to kick tail. Good year. Becky quick tweeting at 4 00 a. M. This morning . Im not sure. It was early. Well, a line from a Goldman Sachs report. Yeah. You can say it because you tweeted it. It was interesting. It actually came from morning money. Ben white picked it up. Goldman sachs is saying they think if they look at the s p right now they think its either fairly valued or above value at this point. They expect like a 67 chance that you will see stocks drop by about 10 in 2014. It will be interesting to see. There was an interesting report to talk about how money funds expect to lose 1 3 of their asset. If thats the case, we dont know if its going to happen, if it does, where does that money go . Stocks, bonds, real estate . Its also hard to predict where stocks are going to go next year. We dont know gdp. If gdp grows 1 were probably over. The report didnt go into detail whether thats a quick job and then bounce back. A drop of 10 , probably not a huge surprise given where stocks have run. The only good news about all of this is that theres still a little bit of worry out there. When theres not worry, thats when you should be worried. As long as everybody is a little worried, i think thats a good thing for the market. The market ran the last couple of weeks guys has been led by low stocks. Not to knock the jcpenneys of the world, but theres been some names that were heavily shorted that are the best performers in the s p last month. That makes me nervous. We have another story that may impact the real economy. One of this mornings other top stories is this. A dangerous storm could threaten travel across the country. Wonder what it will do to shopping season. The storm started in the southwest on thursday. It has claimed at least 13 lives. More than a foot of snow has been reported in many mountain regions of utah and colorado. The storm is a big concern for the 43 Million People who are expected to travel 50 miles or who are. Aaa reports 3 million are slated to fly to their destinations. That black friday Holiday Shopping starts even earlier than friday. It starts on thursday. So this isnt so great now. It could be worse later. Lets get over to julie martin who joins us from the Weather Channel to give us a little bit of the forecast on what to expect this week. Julie. Andrew, youre absolutely right. Major travel impact expected through this storm. Right now it is impacting the Dallas Fort Worth area. Icing is taking place on the roads. The airlines canceled 300 flights today preemptively. You can expect more of that as we press through the next couple of days. Well see this mess start to move east overnight into tomorrow. Had he every rain in the south and then it heads up the i95 corridor just in time for the busiest travel day of the year. For today we have the winter advisories up places like texas in through arkansas. As we move through the next couple of days this storm, again, tracks eastward and northeastward. So for now the good news is were forecasting rain for the big cities, new york, boston, d. C. On the back side of that, wintery mix. Snow in places like pittsburgh, up towards syracuse. Nonetheless, this is a look at the forecast for tomorrow in through wednesday. Again, expect major delays in and out of airports in new york and also d. C. And boston on the busiest travel day of the year. So you mentioned black friday, by the way, the forecast is much quieter for black friday. It will be cold, really cold through the midwest and the east. That will certainly impact the shoppers. Thank you, julie. Not good. By the way, in the issue of travel, we have corporate news. Boeing has now chosen 15 possible sites to build its 777 gl 777x. There are many spots all vying for that role. Now a little bit more of boeing news. The company is nowi advisin that there is a little bit of a risk of engine icing problems on the 747a and also the dreamliner which ive talked about before with engines made by General Electric. Boek is urging 15 carriers to avoid flying in high level thunderstorms. Japan airlines has already changed two of their flight paths and also changed the actual plans in terms of which planes can go certain places. This story is more concerning than the battery. This is a big story. Kind of like, oh, yeah, dont go near thunderstorms. Engines could ice over. If youre flying asia, you tend to go over the north pole. You go over siberia. Its cold. This is a bigger story than i think the headlines suggest. Do you really think they can fix this with a Software Upgrade . What . Thats what it said. Theyll be working on a Software Upgrade. I dont know what that means. Im out of my depth here. Listen, i just hope the pilots turn off the popup button, right . Then you have to restart your computer every ten minutes. Postpone your upgrade. I was concerned about that story, too. I didnt quite understand what it all meant. Maybe we need an expert to walk us through. We have a couple of Great Airline analysts. Somebody from the ge airline Engine Department on line one. Why just these two planes . I dont know. Technology is very different. All right. Speaking of software, microsoft said it sold more than 1 million of its new xbox one video game con soles. They matched sonys play station 4 launch. It launched in 13 countries while the ps 4 is currently on sale only in the u. S. And canada. One would imply that gives it a slight sales edge to sony. Chryslers ipo pricing could be announced earlier this week. They may raise 1. 5 to 2 billion. It would value chrysler at 9 to 12 billion bucks. Its aiming to complete its offering in september. Apache is reportedly in talks with the state controlled country in argentina about the sale of its assets in the country. It has stakes in 25 fields in argentina. Last year they wanted to sell 4 billion dollars in debts. Katie couric is expected to leave abc news. The deal will be announced today. Couric will do a high profile online interview show on yahoo s home page. Cnbc and yahoo have a Business Alliance to co produce reports. We look at Company Stocks every day. We look at it fundamentally and technically. Be there next to ms. Couric i imagine. Maybe shell join us breaking down the bullinger bands. I wouldnt hold my breath. No. I cant you cant. You know what they say, small lungs. Small breaths . No, tight shirt. It is a holiday shortened trading week, but there is still plenty of Economic Data to digest in the coming days. Joining us on set is darryl crump. Regional Investment Officer at Wells Fargo Bank and steven ruschiotto. Thank you for coming in. Darryl, why dont we Start Talking about what you think is going to be happening. There are some questions. Stocks have hit new highs. You have Goldman Sachs concerned about the potential for a 10 pull back. What do you think . Obviously a big move since the october 9th lows. Weve come off of a 10 gain. There have been ten caps that have added a quarter of a percent of that rally. Its been a breadthth across the names. Not always the best quality. Theres a megacap. Heavily shorted. People dont like them as much. So we dont see any big barriers to this market towards year end, becky. I think when you look at 2013, it will go down as a story of rerating the forward p. E. Ratios, right . We came in 13. 2 for forward earnings for 2013. This year were walking in at 2014 at 15. 8 for forward earnings. Things are richer than they were at this time last year. That was part of goldmans point. They were concerned that p. E. Ratios are not going to improve as we head into the new year and shouldnt. What do you think about that point . Well, i think its a fair point. We think the market is fairly valued now like most. I dont think thats an out of consensus type of move. I think as you look into 14 and maybe the last few trading days of this year, you have to start separating the sectors and companies that can do well. We think things like technologies, companies that have strong operating leverage. If you see the pickup in revenue next year, theyll translate it to the bottom line makes sense for 2014. I just looked here, four of the best ten performing stocks, steven, this month in the s p, first solar, jcpenney, youve got xerox and pitney bowes. Those are not the stocks that those are your junk stocks . Im not calling them junk stocks. Theyre not the financials. Not the Technology Names necessarily that we think of would lead whats, quote, unquote, a healthy rally. You have to love the fact that the nikkei, which by the way was my Top Performing prediction last year, im happy about that, is up 50 year to date. What do you make of the rally . Do you think its overdone . I think what youll see is additional currency regulation for the japanese yen. They have to have that. Thats the important parameter. The banks own forecast is well get to about 105, 110. Well be possibly north of that. That additional deterioration will help the repatriation and the revaluation of the earnings numbers that come in from their overseas businesses. As a result of that i think you can have another good year in 2014 for the nikkei. The real question is whether or not the fundamental economy comes online. Were still waiting to see whether the abenomics experience changes the deflationary environment thats necessary to keep the nikkei moving forward. What about here with the retail season hitting full gear at this point. You have some concerns about it if you listen to a walmart or target. Then you have Companies Like macys saying the trend was improving over the last month and things are Getting Better over the time. Whats the real story . The Interest Rate environment. How does the Federal Reserve deal with the problems it has to deal with in terms of its balance sheet, growth, and the ability to get the economy moving again by keeping low longterm Interest Rates and whether or not those expectations come through. A steeper yield curve i dont think will be a fundamentally valued situation. Its something that will scare Equity Investors and it will create an alternative. Were still in a grab free yield environment which is why the stocks youre looking at are going up. People are grabbing for yield. If you start to get into an environment where bond yields are going up, thats where youll switch backwards. That will cause a possible correction nair ri environment. I dont think we have excess environment in equities. I asked this question last week and its the thing i dont get. If i was an institutional manager, i think that i would try to lock in all my gains for the year, call it a day, take my fee and go on vacation now. Why is that not going happen . Its a function of economic surprise. Im literally talking now and the end of the year. Because 82 why wouldnt i get out of business . 82 of the time we rise. I understand that. Ride this baby as long as you can. I dont understand why people arent saying, ive got a lot of chips. Im leaving the table. Im going for dinner now. You have, andrew, what, 15, 20 trading days left in the year. Huge gains. A lot of people want to defer those taxes into yeks yenext ye well. Defer that. Pay that when youre literally 15, 20 trading days of getting into january. You can defer it a whole other 15 months. Youre talking about april 15 before you would pay the taxes. Thats a big deal, too. So i think youre talking about a time constraint. Let me talk to you about a time constraint. In the fmoc minutes it said the fed is looking for new tools to stimulate the economy if its tapering the monthly purchases its been making. One of the tools they were talking is lowering the interest on bank rester fs. The banks are now threatening according to the fte to pass that straight on to consumers. It means basically for them to have a checking account, hold your money, theyre going to charge to you do it because they cant make money by doing it at the Federal Reserve. What would the threat be to the economy if that happens . I think its a bad tool to do, number one. I think its a mistake for the fed to do it. It will cause problems in the money market funds. It will cause dislocations in the way the banks handle reserves. I think there are Better Things the fed can do. By the fed focusing people on the concept of the reality, we have a disciplinary environment. We have downward pressures on inflation coming through. That should be the key. If they get the long end of the curve to flatten on Inflation Expectations coming down, i think that will be a very, very positive development for the economy moving into 2014 and i think thats going to be Janet Yellens job to do as she takes over the reins of the Federal Reserve from ben bernanke. Steven, darryl, gentlemen, thank you both. Thank you. Coming up, Consumer Reports unveiling its holiday report card. Find out whos been naughty and nice. First before we do that, squawk sports news. If you went to sleep early last night, you missed an exciting end to the nfl game. The new England Patriots storming back from a 240 halftime deficit to beat denver 3431. Humbled broncos set up a 31 yard field goal by the patriots with 1 56 left in overtime. Squawk box coming right back after this. Ya know, with new fedex one rate you can fill that box and pay one flat rate. I didnt know the coal thing was real. Its very real. David rivera. Rivera, david. [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. [ male announcer ] this december, experience the gift of unsurpassed craftsmanship at the lexus december to remember sales event. Some of the best offers of the year. This is the pursuit of perfection. Welcome back, everybody. Its time for our daily executive edge segment. Consumer reports issuing its holiday report card for 2013 telling us which companies are being naughty and which are being nice this season. Yakky dea jackie deangeles has the story. Its not about the Holiday Season and what people want to buy but its where they want to buy it. In a lot of cases they have a lot of different options. Its about best practices, policies, where theyll get the best deal. Consumer reports looked at retailers, telco companies, to see whos hiding coal in the fine print and whos not. Lets start with the less favorable group. We have amazon. People like it for free super saver shipping. They raised it from 10 bucks to 35 bucks. I noticed that a while ago. Hes been complaining on air. It says theres certain types of products that you need to do addon products. Right. Thats new. You could buy a battery, theyd send it to you. It didnt matter. Exactly. Some people not sure what the policy is. Theyre going to go on the website and see this and see its different this year. Meantime, toys r us is another company a lot of folks look to. No more Price Matching the week of black friday. That starts on november 25th. On cyber monday, which is december 2nd. A lot of people are used to bringing the advertisement in and getting the same price there. If youre traveling with kids this Holiday Season, United Airlines no longer letting families with infants or kids under 4 priority board. They have to wait for their group number. Brian, i see you looking at me like youre crazy. Im looking at you like united is crazy. Why would they do this . You have a kid in a car seat or 2yearold. Its annoying for everybody else, too. Thats also the other thing. It annoys everybody. When i complained about it on twitter. Most of the people agreed with that. If you have kids you think this way. If you dont and youre a heavy business traveler, they say, i dont want you guys boarding early. I want you getting on first. Its all about the overhead space. Its also getting your kids settled. It will take you longer. It will

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