Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20141229 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box December 29, 2014

Yesterday as many people said the decks are so hot that their shoes were melting beneath their feet. Five people have died and many were injured among the 478 passengers and crew. Among the other stories we are watching today, sony says the Playstation Network is back online although it is still having problems. Playstation has been dealing with three days of disruptions that began on christmas and a group of hackers calling themselves the lizard squad is claiming credit. Speaking of sony its controversial movie the interview made 18 million in the opening weekend. And i think it was mostly independent theaters. The total was 15 million in online sales and another 2. 8 million in studio sales. The firm was purchased or rented online more than 2 million times on the four days through saturday. Four days after a competitor apple is now making the interview available on itunes. And in news watch today, oil clashes in libya smoking worries about supply from the opec member. A fire caused by fighting at one of the export terminals destroyed 800,000 barrels of crude, that is more than two days of libyas output. We know how much 800,000 that doesnt sound like a lot in terms of production. The markets are not reacting, at5 dollars. We have had a slow steady move higher on the markets, but not we have a few players out today. I dont know what is going on in st. Barts but more is going on there than at the New York Stock Exchange. Did you see the rumor that the big board will be sold or something . That was over the weekend. I saw a line about that. And then close down some day, possibly. Possible. I dont know if it is really possible. Do you think it is possible . I do think it is possible. I was just thinking what is going to happen to are we they are all going to be down in atlanta . What if they turn it into a studio . Some could argue that as a studio. Or a nightclub. Well see whether any of that happens. Was it not in a reputable paper, that story . Im not sure. I think it was in another paper. All those papers are which one . I think it was in the New York Post. Was it in the post . I dont think the post is reputable. I read two papers on sunday and dont think either one is reputable. Im not going to name which ones that they are. I can guess. Lets take a quick look at europe. I do read the weekend wall street journal. The france and ftse in germany i wouldnt disparage the daily news if i were you. Throw them in there, too. Down 8. 5 for greece with things getting dicy. You wonder, chouldould that fuse be lit again in terms of europe and what happens . In asia japans government approved 29 billion in spending but the japanese stock suspected a case of ebola. A man who returned to japan from sierra leone last week was suspected of contracting the deadly virus. Test results are expected by tomorrow morning. If confirmed, it would be the first positive diagnosis in all of asia. Okay. Lets take a look at the tenyear because once again, i was looking at some mark brandt stuff. And in five years when people said rates have to rise more so with the fed finally starting next year at some point, that empathies the yields are headed higher. He still says lower. Check out the dollar which last i looked was fine. I think well be able to are we going to make hay over there . We dont use euros in switzerland. That is so confusing about the whole place. We should start using we should have a davos screen. 13 different currencies the swiss franc is running 13 different ones you need to keep track of. Have you talked about gold yet . No i guess we can. Well take a quick look at gold. Then you can intro our guest. Gold is at 1192. Not above 1200. Well talk about the key president ial vote going on in greece today to threaten the future of the countrys international bailout. They failed to secure the needed votes and that could pave the way for national elections. Wilfred frost is joining us with the latest from london. Wilfred . Andrew thank you very much. Greek stocks are selling off after the government failed to secure enough votes to elect the president ial nominee paving the way for snap elections early next year. The parliament voted in favor of him by 168 votes, but that was 12 shy of the 180 required. If you can see down at the bottom here, athens stock market is off 8. 3 so far today. That has had an effect on continental europe. At the top, joe, you said will this have a big effect on the rest of europe . So far nothing to the size of the athens stock market move down 8. 3 . It was down 11 just as the vote was announced but recovered some ground. We are looking at the bond buying for the safehaven of germany off the back of this admitting to a record low of 0. 95 . The opposite is the tenyear in greece up to 8. 6 so far at the yield. And spain and italy have seen yields tick up. So in the bracket of potential contagen, but nothing significant to the size of the moves of greece. Lets look at what has happened to the euro. That i suppose is a good indication of whether this is a wider contagen issue because the euro has not moved that significantly. A bit of volatility as you can see around the results announcement but nothing significant flat on the day at 1. 2188. Where has the biggest move been . In the greek bank some of them on the best part of 15 to 16 . These were 5 more a half hour ago recovering ground. The euro bank is down 16 . Perez is down 13 so far. With that back to you guys. Thank you, wilfred. Tough situation. Now back to the missing airasia plane. Hope is fading for a rescue. Martin song is joining us from the airport in singapore. What can you tell us martin . Reporter yes, hi good morning. Youre right, i guess hope does seem to be fading as we come to 36 hours now since we last had contact with the plane or lost radio contact with the plane. Day two of the search and rescue is just wrapping up. We are waiting to see whether it continues into the night. But the bottom line is so far nothing, nothing substantive or concrete. No sign or evidence of the plane at all. Earlier today indonesias head of their search and rescue operations had a pretty bleak assessment. Our evaluation of the coordinates that we received suggested it is under water. So our presumption now is that the aircraft is under the sea. Kit be expanded based on evaluation. Reporter so pretty direct and brutal and people your given that nothing definitive has been found yet, but in the meantime the boss of airasia Tony Fernandez has focus on the people, the 162 passengers and crew on board and their family and friends. We dont want to speculate. Right now they have been missing for 12 hours and theres a huge sense of aggression here but well stay strong. And we our First Priority now is to look after the family and do whatever we can in this period. Reporter so Tony Fernandes has airasia listed in trade here today with shares crushed finishing down 8. 5 in one session. At one point they were down 13 . Before this incident airasia shares were up a fifth year to date. Back to you. Thank you, martin. We appreciate that. Thank you very much. A lot of speculation, andrew these are very safe planes. Interesting. That part time of the world, we dont we dont know at this point. Were going to talk to an aviation analyst in a little bit. But you know im an anxious flyer, so these kind of situations with an airbus as we talked about 2014 being one of the deadliest years but not here. Not domestically, right . So then the question is is it pilot error or mechanical failure . God knows in that part of the world. People are still working 24 hours a day in certain parts of the world to figure out ways of getting on board planes undetected with you know they are still trying. I have no idea what happened here. And they had bad weather. Right . Im sure i know this is the third one, right . In that part of the world. Im more i am suspecting it is weather. We have lots of reports theres weather around the world. Yes but this was a big weather storm. Lightning, i think i told you airasian . No i was on a delta flight with an engine blew out while i was in the air, which is why i get as scared as i do. Youre fine. Here i am. But as a result i am conscious that lightning can knock out the engine. And the question is you should have another enjoy to keep you going, but if you have a major storm, things can happen. In the event well move on to what we normally focus on the markets in the homestretch of 2014. December had stellar trading action. Will january live up to expectations . Joining us is anthony chan. And john bye, cofounder and managing partner at global investors. High Single Digits next year . What is your forecast . 20 off side. At least it is not high Single Digits right . That would be 30plus 2015. Then 20 next year . Do you think that we can do that without getting too bullish . Without too comeplacentcomplacent . Do you think that will continue . Yes i think its a perfect storm of stuff happening, seeing the return of the Consumer Credit. If the rate cycle begins next year, we have done a lot of imper call studies of the federal rate cycles, which Shows Positive Market Movement previous to it. And an investment cycle, i think we feel its in the early stages with room to go there as well. If i would look at fundamentals, i would say i feel the same way. But do you factor in the notion that these are wellknown . That all the bullish things that youre talking about are wellknown by most participates in the market . And its better when people are doubting a market . Yeah. I think it helps to be a contrarian. We are the most bullish with a s p target of 23 and 25. On a longerterm basis, we are predicting market to be mid3000s by the end of this decade. Where are multiples going to be by the end of next year . 16. 5. 142 for s p. 16. 5 times brings us to 23 25. Okay. Anthony, well focus on what the economic backdrop is with the 5 print, is that really doable for year three . Is 3. 25 doable or where are you . I think real gdp in 2015 can be somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 maybe as much as 3. 5 . But i would keep it close to the 3 . As for the equity market i think the equity market will be good for 2015 not as good as 2014, but our view is that its probably going to be positive but in the neighborhood of 8 to 10 . I do agree that the backdrop is positive for equities even if the Federal Reserve raises rates. Some of the things i have done is to look at periods in history when the Federal Reserve is raising rates because the economy is getting better. And i measure that by looking at the change in the federal funds rate versus the change in the Consumer Price index. And i think in 2015 youll see that the federal funds rate will rise much faster than the increment in the Consumer Price index. And when you look at periods in history back to the 1990s, for example, and you look at the Federal Reserve raising rates, the s p 500 on average goes up by about 10. 5 when the Federal Reserve is raising rates, not because inflation is rising compared to other periods when the inflation rate is rising faster. And then you get the s p 500 rising just a little over 3 . So yes, the positive backdrop for the Federal Reserve is there. And for the equity markets of 2015. Yeah. So thats youre sort of describing a goldilocks scenario as well. In the last year anthony, what was there some headwind that oil or the economy will do better as we saw oil come down. What changed between the ability for the economy to finally gain traction this year versus the previous three or four years . What is different . Why is it better . I think, joe, the reason things are getting a lot better is because were starting to get the lagged impact of all the stimulus that has been applied to the economy. For years the federal reservist kept Interest Rates as very low levels. They are not raising rates. They have done quantitative easing and you have gotten a lot of critics out there saying all this stuff done by the Federal Reserve has not had an impact. As people were saying that the economy was getting prepared. Look at what has happened to household wealth. We lost over 13 trillion dollars during the financial crisis. Well, guess what . We not only got it back but we got almost the equivalent incremental increase on top of that in household wealth. So Balance Sheets are getting repaired. And as Balance Sheets are getting repaired, households are feeling a lot more comfortable. Its no surprise youre seeing record levels of car sales because people are feeling a lot more comfortable. I know that during the holidays people are saying oh they are not really buying that much at the malls. But if they are buying the bigticket items like in november. We saw one of the strongest novembers in many many years. Buying a car is worth more than a thousand tshirts. If you are not buying a tshirt but a brand new car, consumers are feeling more comfortable and that will really protell the economy in 2015. I think the consumer will going to come back. And guess what else is going to happen . We are going to start to see businesses starting to spend a little more money on business investment. Were already starting to see it. I think thats going to be another story for 2015 to continue to propel us a little bit higher. Why is that going to happen . Remember that in january, more than 20 states are going to be raising the minimum wage. What does that mean . It means that businesses will go crazy trying to spend more money on technology in order to at least partially offset the rise in labor costs. Not to mention the fact that the average earnings are already rising. That is in respect to the minimum wage. Any worry that well have a correction blip anything in the first or Second Quarter of this year only because we have gone on this run . And i ask the question because so many people even over the holidays, i know family members said, i think i missed the train. The train has left the station. Should i be getting in now . The market has gone on this run. Theres an expectation that people do dump some things sometimes in january and february. Yeah, you know, we dont like to predict dips but if you look at lets just assume that the fed rate hike is going to start in the middle of the year. Six months prior to that you have seen, again, looking at 14 rate hike cycles with a steady increase of 7 in the market. And youve seen a fly in the market for three months and then return to growth in the market six months thereafter. I dont know outside of any external factors, we dont really forecast any correction. No reason for dont forget as i mentioned on the Consumer Credit side the fair reporting act, which keeps a report of bad credit for seven years, that starts to roll off. So that means is that the 2007 bad credit people, they get a clean slate starting this year. Thats about 5. 5 million households. 7. 5 of the 2015 and 9. 5 for 2016. Thats 22. 5 million households that get reset on their credit record, which improves their credit ability to borrow and then, of course for some people, it creates employment. Well, anthony, we have to run, but your final for expectations in corporate i think they are lagging in corporate times, but we put a lot of stock in ceos here on cnbc. A lot of people have said the reason corporations arent investing is because they dont see demand while others argue uncertainty from obamacare and taxes and all these things. If you really do seem to start when demand picks up maybe all along it was demand or a combination of both. Well talk about this. Real quick, joe. Real quick, the 5 growth that we just saw in real gdp definitely represents the man coming back. By the way, close to 3 million jobs well create in 2014 and perhaps 3 million more jobs in through 2015 are definitely going to lead to more demand. All right. Hopefully well get some fulltime jobs that pay over 100,000 even though now were seeing oil and gas, we saw those articles over the weekend. They are cutting back. John thank you. Anthony, thank you as well. Okay. Still to come on squawk box this hour the skyrocketing cost of education in the coming revolution of schooling. Well talk about that next. Plus at 6 30 eastern, retail winners and losers. Remember there are only 360 days before christmas of 2015. And well bring you a story and the leg up of competition in technology. But first, well bring you some of 2014s most respected guests. My wish for 2015 is that Federal Reserve officials recognize its prudent to be patient, i. E. They dont tighten Monetary Policy next year. The evolution of luxury continues. The next generation 2015 escalade. Welcome back to squawk box. We are joined by the Weather Channel now, it was balmy over the weekend. He is wearing a miamilike tie today. I know hes in atlanta. He writes down his response as he knows whats coming every day. I like to keep you guessing. Its atlanta, im never in full winter mode. You were righters it was mild in the northeast over the weekend. Youll get another nice day today and then things are going to go downhill. Well talk about whats happening on the radar. Rain down across the carolinas and the southeast to shift offshore. Lit miss the big cities of new york to boston. But theres cool air in place. Look at this across the northern plains. Feels like 24 below in bismarck. 7 below in minneapolis. And if you dont live there, you probably think of the places as cold and they are, but even for them, were talking 25 to 30 degrees below average as the cold air rotates down from canada and gets all the way down to texas. Its going to be freezing in texas for new years day and then rotates eastward. So along the eastern seaboard the cold air gets in here new years eve and new years day. It wont be crazy cold but it will be below average. Tomorrow morning, look at the low temperatures well below zero. The air modifies but shifts off to the southeast. 5 below in minneapolis. Kansas city coming in at 4. Dodge city at zero. Then as we head into new years eve, well take a look at temperatures here. This is from midnight. So if you make it until midnight, 27 in new york city. 23 in boston. 30 degrees should do it in washington, d. C. So you know by and large, the temperatures are just a little below average. But i think its been so mild lately to feel worse that it is because o

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