Anybody on board why bother having the meetings at this point . Its a great place. I dont think they want to pay for the hotel room at this point. Our colleagues caught up with a member of the saudi royal family earlier today. Well bring you that in a few minutes. First lets talk about the goldman call on crude. The firm is cutting its forecasts. Its one month view is 38 barrel. Thats a significant decline and thats a fairly short time measure. Theyre saying 38 within the next month. A decline of 7 off the 45 its sitting at right now. The 12 month target is down to 45 barrel but goldman says the risk is that oil could fall as low as 20 barrel. They say that risk is rising. Among the reasons, a big sur plus of oil with the scarcity of storage space. In fairness its a differ guy. That was the super spike. All right. Equals, 300. No, wait a minute. All right. No, thats the wrong okay. 20 we think its going to 20. It was a different guy. But wasnt it 2007 right before i dont know. It was like 250 or 300. Its going to be a super cycle. But oh, no, okay. Let me just give me a second. No, not 300, 20. So make sure that you plan all of your investors based on this goldman call. Theyre sure this time. Its a pretty bold call to say 38. 300 was a bold call too. But remember we had Raymond James on and he said when the bottom was. Do you remember when he actually gave us he said to the day, we tried to ask him what was in the model. Wouldnt tell us what was going on. Joe continues to do. That was around the bottom. Let me check. For the shortterm. Joe continues checking Goldman Sacks math and well get you caught up this morning. Another big economic report ahead of the fed meeting. The focus on inflation today. The august Consumer Price index coming up at 8 30 eastern time. Also new data showing that investors pulling 16. 2 billion from u. S. Based stock funds from the weekending wednesday. This is nearly 4 billion in inflows during the prior week. Meantime attracting their first inemployees in three weeks. Washington news, treasury secretary jack lew says the u. S. Will still be able to borrow until late october but in a letter to congress hes calling on leaders to raise the debt limit as soon as possible to avoid unnecessary risk. I dont think well have another debt ceiling. I misspoke on oil. I said it was down yesterday. Yesterday it was up 4 but that was after a 4 decline the day before. Are you sure they knew that all of that stuff was definitely going down . Are you sure they knew the securities were shorter. You know my deal on that. There was nothing wrong with them. Did they really know okay did they say these are all going to go down because theyre going to sour these mortgages . I think they put together a deck of cards and another group of people thought they were great cards and they decided they liked those cards. Anyone that thinks that anybody knows anything. That they knew for sure what was going to happen. In Corporate NewsGeneral Electric is selling the transportation finance unit of ge capital to bmo. They have been working on shedding financial businesses and says the latest transaction brings the total for 2015 sales to 85 billion. Shares of zs pharma getting a boost this morning. It initiated preliminary discussion with the Bio Tech Company and the Fiber Optics Company posting earnings and revenue below estimates and also offering weak guidance in announcing that the ceo resigned. A Small Cap Stock to tell you about this morning, its getting hurt particularly bad, zumiez. Its a retailer. It will fall short of wall street expectation. A big 20 hair cut on that stock today. The company blamed fashion mishits and back to school promotional pushes. If you have stuff not selling at full price thats probably harder than figuring out oil i cant imagine. Plus it has to be different. I looked at this today. I have another by the same maker, same type that just happens to be two inches thicker and now have to wear this. What have you got on today . Are you going to be anchor monster. Its a thinner tie. Multitone. Its two colors. Yes, yes, i do. I thought you dipped that in coffee or something this morning. Thats cool. Dark is a slimming effect. Yeah he needs a slimming effect. What do i need. Thats what they to with womens dresses. Look at him. If i sneeze youre going to go out on 6th avenue. Were still going to do our push up contest. Its not over. I hope youre training because you were not ready last time. You were not ready. Give me time. I dont even need the time. What have you been doing . Getting ready. You have . Thats good to know. You two go get ready. Youre involved in the next one. No, im not. You can use the girly knee push ups if you want. Im going to get in trouble for saying that because i know a lot of women at my gym that could kill me as far as push ups go. I cant get to 20. Its hard. Lets get a check on the markets this morning. Take a look at whats happening with the futures today. Yesterday we saw the futures all over the map. The same thing happened once you got into the actual trading session. The dow trading on a 230 point range. That was about a gain of about. 5 . You saw a similar gain for the s p 500. This morning it looks like the futures so far look to be indicating an open down by 54 points. S p futures are down by 7. 5 and the nasdaq is 20 points off of fair value. Markets show similar declines. The cac in france is down. 7 . Its down by less than. 2 . Overnight in asia you saw that the nikkei closed down by. 2 as well. Hang seng was a little weaker and shanghai was flat. When it comes to the ten year 2. 197 . The dollar is a little stronger against the euro but down against the yen. 11269 and dollar yen at 11256. Lets talk more about oil. Saudi arabia saying it sees no need for the summit saying its best to leave the markets alone. Hadley has an exclusive interview with the member of the saudi family. Good morning. This has always been about maintaining market share. I got the chance to sit down with his royal highness, the former head of saudi intelligence and i asked him basically does that mean your governments policies have been working. Take a listen. Everybody wants to protect their share of the market. Even nonopec companies. The u. S. Now is producing a lot of oil and they havent decreased their production of oil. So there is a consensus in the world community, particularly in Oil Producing countries within and out opec that things are going to change with demand and excess oil availability. I also asked the prince at length about the situation in syria. We talked about russia. Their military involvement in the country. That would be a huge mistake to continue. Thats despite a growing relationship. Back to you. Lets get back to the markets. David joined us in a squawk box exclusive yesterday urging a cautious approach. Im not probably as bullish as i could be because i have problems with earnings growth. I have problems with multiples. I have problems with all kind of problems so i cant really call myself a bull. However i will say this if you invest today in the stock market and people said that in five years even if you invest in 1800 and earnings grow a little bit. They grow 5. 5 a year or Something Like that you all make money and at the end of five years. Did that work for you guys. Is that in anchor Training School . Thats the toss . Is that how you i havent been to anchor school. Im not sure what theyre teaching over there. Here with their thoughts on comments on the broader market. How much money do you need to consider someone as a client. I dont want anything special but normal what is it . About 40 million. What . 40 million. About 40 million. Pretty good. You don go that high do you, david . At jeffreys . We probably go a little bit lower than that. Not too much. Do either of you im not going to ask you if watch, im going to assume that everybody watches. But tepper yesterday his basic contention is that things probably rnlt quite as bullish or friendly to Financial Markets as they have for the past five or six years. Do you agree with that . It makes sense. Growth momentum slowing. U. S. Forecasts have been okay but come in a little bit and thats translating to earnings numbers and downgrades and thats fed through this system. The surprise has been the surprising actions in august. One of the things that tepper kept noting is he thinks that multiples are based on Growth Prospects and not as much on interest rates. And they should stay low but he said if growth is slowing you put a lower multiple on there. If you two back 50 years, think of the average ten year note yield at 6. 5 . Its about a 16 multiple which is where the equity markets traded. If were going to go to five as the new 6. 5 or 4 as the new 6. 5 for the longterm yield then youre talking about a 20 or 25 multiple and thats a reasonable story line for a very long horizon but its still very longterm bullish. Why do i want to mess around with this when the fed is transitions. I think it was more of what the fed is going to do. I dont think he was looking ahead over the next two years and hes more worried about china and russia and brazil and Everything Else. His bigger point was we have been conditioned to think every time theres a dip you buy. Hes saying the new reality might be that every time theres a rally you sell. Thats a very shortterm transitioning period from the fed going from uber accommoda accommodative to slightly restrictive. Why do you want to mess around with the one period where theyre changing tact . Its a confusing time. Its the unwind of the greatest Monetary Policy experiment in history. Theyre turning it around. They dont know what theyre doing. The ioer is confusing and theres targeting of the short rate. The currency reverse could be drying up. Absolutely. But theyre still coming out of europe and japan. Follow the reserve growth. Out flows from mutual fund. Is that what happens at a market top. Theres a lot of things going on. People dont sell at market tops. Usually theyre crazy highs. By default they do. But you have other things going on. Nobody goes there anymore. You cant read a lot into the numbers. Its a september or october period. People pointed out it hasnt been the most lovable market. It hasnt at all. Theres been more money into bonds and clients looking at this as an tun to rebalance portfolios. Has any millennial ever bought a stock . Theyre looking at facebook or something. The 401 k is another thing. They have. I have decided im not worried. Theyre not watching so i cant make any of them mad. Cant offend them. Anybody millennials that are watching, tweet us. To try to bring them in is futile. 20 oil will help. Yeah, 20 oil will help. So both of you are saying keep a toe out of the door. Be careful in the u. S. And follow the stimulus. It worked here and the j. K. And worked well in europe and japan. Qe stimulus. I think it shopped great. Im shocked that its going to create a rocking of the foundation of the roach motel we created. How many guest versus been on here telling you shouldnt take the qe away. You shoechbt take rates higher. You had a parade of imf, world banks, academics, Fund Managers but this economy cannot take 25 basis points i want to know about it. I want to know about it now. Everybody is saying the ceo is the dollar getting stronger. The story behind that, not just qe is to follow the margin. If you think about the last couple of years youve seen a lot of trends develop. Youve seen the extension of the lead into high Profit Margins be sustained not just in the u. S. Youre starting to see that pick up in parts of europe and not quite there in japan but part of the story which is the monetary accommodation, free money but its been followed by nu fundamentals. If your horizon slong enough thats going to matter is that margin improvement over the next several years. Can i get a berkshire class b investment with merrill . No, because youre not allowed to own individual stocks. I know but for them to handle me. Blind trust. Blind trust. Blind trust. Its 40 million. I need like a millionth. We have smaller. Berkshire a is what im talking about. Im talking about that one. Im talking about the ones you wouldnt take my call if i called you. Id take your call. No, you wouldnt. We could pool no, we could never. That was a quick no. Give us a call. Jeffries is our place. Coming up when we return the mornings big political stories including the final cut list for the next gop debate and later our news maker of the morning. Bill ackman is going to join us. Hes ready sound off on his latest target. Snack giant mondelez. Well talk about that more at 7 00 eastern time. Were back in a moment. Take ted here. Im pulling together data he shared from his wearables, Health Records and family history, so we can analyze it. Hes doing everything right. For the most part. No pain, no gain. You are a beast, ted. My name is watson. How can i help you . Without the internet i would probably be like a c student. Internet essentials from comcast has brought lowcost high Speed Internet into the homes of hundreds of thousands of lowincome families. It lets students do homework and study at home. So far more than two Million People across america have benefitted. Internet essentials is going to transform the lives of families. I see myself as maybe an entrepreneur. Internet essentials from comcast. Helping to bridge the digital divide. Unless number one they know exactly why they would want to be president and two they can look at the folks out there and say i promise you have my whole heart, my whole soul, my energy and my passion to do this and id be lying if i said i knew i was there. Vice President Joe Biden opening up to Stephen Colbert last night and john harwood joins us this morning. That doesnt sound anything like somebody thats ready to he didnt have the greatest experience the first couple of times. Who needs it . At his age and hes sort of at a point where i think he is just going to ruin things if he were to challenge hilary and hes in a sweet spot right now. Obviously not in terms of beau but in every other respect probably john its a good time in life and he didnt sound like a guy thats ready to decide to do that. I think youre right. Thats exactly how i see it. Hes run twice for president before. You dont lose that desire to do it but given the tremendous run hes had as vice president. The personal tragedy hes gone through. His age, you can just see him. You can see him with a glow of good feeling from the country that would be in real jeopardy if he got into devicive race with Hillary Clinton. He is late in the game. She has been working at this a long time. So i dont think the pieces are there for him to decide to run for president. He hasnt he didnt definitively rule it out. His advisors have been game planning for him but thats what i saw from that appearance last night. Ive even seen and what he would be facing. I even saw someone bringing up anita hills. He was one of the headlines on the clarence thomas. They were going to go back to try to imtpune him. I looked at it like if i were joe biden, to go back and bring up my college career, all of that stuff, who needs it, right . And during the work hearings and the hearings over anita hill and clarence thomas. Those would be front and center. The things that took down his campaign for president in 19 88. The whole deal at syracuse with the allegations of plagiarism. Stuff gets drudged up in campaigns and joe biden is not in a position to embrace that possibility. Whether it will eventually happen or not. Lets switch gears to Bernie Sanders. Daniel craig likes Bernie Sanders but the public editor thinks hes not getting a fair shake. Do you agree with that . Hes been getting a lot of publicity and doing well on the trail. Run the best campaign of anybody so far if you look at what his assets are and what he was facing, hes been tremendously effective but i think that the argument was that theyre not treating sanders as somebody thats a real potential president in the event that he was able to knockoff Hillary Clinton. Its for me difficult to imagine Bernie Sanders winning to democratic nomination or getting elected president and i cant say i argue with that. Iowa and New Hampshire, thats what is weird about the process that we use here. It kind of gives you a head fake and it has in many previous elections where someone like a Bernie Sanders wins an iowa or New Hampshire but the clinton people know that that firewall in the south is probably going to hole, right . Yes, although if she sends up hughesing both iowa and New Hampshire thats a rough situation for her. Probably wont happen anymore. Is he waiting to see what happens with her before he decides in. People dont get in all that late. You have filing deadlines. I dont think that anybody has the luxury of saying im going to jump in in march after weve had a couple of primaries. I think that in that situation, if that happened, if Hillary Clinton took heavy blows in iowa and New Hampshire, her staggering in a very bloody fight in the nomination to see if somebody, maybe Martin Omalley who is somebody that more more than Bernie Sanders hasnt gotten much traction so far. If none of that is viable, maybe Bernie Sanders gets nominated. Its hard for me to see that. What do you make of cnns decision to put carly and christie into the next debate. After of the performance that she had in the kids debate last time, certainly theres powerful sentiment in including her and the cnn criteria was a little off. So they had reason to change their criteria. And its people they want to have in the doe bait. So you want chris christie. Hes a good performer on that stage. You want john kasich though hes doing well in New Hamps