Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20160620 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box June 20, 2016

Similar gains for italy and spain. If you check out the currencies, thats where so much of the real volatility has been taking place, you can see that the pound is higher versus the dollar. Its trading at 1. 4635. The dollar is up against the yen at 104. 44. Finally, check out crude oil prices, crude down by a dollar last week with real concern on what was happening there. And that added pressure to equities last week. This morning, wti is up by 1. 5 . The gain is 73 cents to 48. 71. A couple stories we are watching this morning, Indias Central Bank chief announcing hell step down when his term ends in september. The news was not expected. Rajan has been popular with Foreign Investors and took control of Indias Central Bank in 2013 when the country faced the worst currency crisis since the 1990s. But faced creditism from the ruling party for not lowering Interest Rates enough. And he announced sweeping reform rules. This clears the way for apple to open stores in the country. Shares for apple are up 1 on the news. The idea is that apple didnt have stores in india didnt occur to me. No, this is the next growth market. This is the big shot. People talk about what can come next, even if you thought there was no innovation, india is a huge part of the bull iish rout. Also on this weeks agenda, we are counting down to thursdays brexit vote. Tomorrow the House Financial Services committee will testify on the economy and the monetary policy. Economic data, look for durable goods. Pretty good fathers day for sports. A big sports day yesterday. In sports news the cavs win the nba championship beating the Golden State Warriors. They were down at halftime and made it up. It was amazing. The cavs are the first time to ever come back from being down 31 in the final. Lebron, king james, leading his team to the Promised Land with a tripledouble. Hes just the third player in nba history to be named the finals mvp three times. And hes from akron, a native ohioan, to bring the first sports title home to cleveland since the browns won the nfl championship back in 1964. Fortunately setting up paul brown coming to cincinnati. Kind of founding the bengals and his family is still associated with the bengals. Thats in large part of the reason im a fan. Dan gilbert, the owner of the team, the quicken loans founder, i reached out to him last night when i woke up, he was still up. He said this whole thing has been a dream. Dan gilbert made this all happen. He went back to lebron and agreed on lebrons terms for him to come back to play ball. Thats amazing. The consensus is when the team wins 73 or 74 games or whatever. Forget it. Nobody can stop him, right . I had to hear from harwood. In the prompter, it said a commanding lead 20 or 31, a twitter person wrote in, four points is not a commanding lead. He had to write, four points is not a commanding lead. I said, you have to talk to someone. 31, no one has done it before. Pretty amazing. It doesnt mean it was not commanding. It was not clear in the last ten minutes who was going to win. This was bizarre, another champion was crowned on the course on sunday, on the golf course. This is great, great to see Dustin Johnson winning his first major with a threeshot victory at the u. S. Open. He finished with a birdie on the final hole to end the tournament at 4 under. It was 5 under until it was 5 under and they made him play under a cloud. Someone tells me that. The slightest thing happens to me and the wheels can definitely come off. He just said, im not going to Pay Attention to this. They were reviewing a moment whether he was trying to decide whether they were going to assess a penalty stroke on him. It didnt matter. It could have. It could have. But youre right, it would have crushed me. The guys behind him made it so that no one was close enough to catch him. But jordan spieth, he finished well off the lead. Jason day made a valiant attempt. Furyk was almost there posting a score that was pretty good. And in the next hour, well have more on the open from pro golfer bubba watson. That was one reason why twitter was pretty good yesterday because i saw what rory mcilroy and jordan spieth, they were all just hammering the usga. The guy came on and said that the rule is, so we asked dustin so the ball you could see he had not addressed it, but the ball moved basically like a millimeter. Because he accidentally hit it. No, he did not touch it. It was clear from the video that he didnt touch it. So they asked him, can you can you think of any other reason why the ball would have moved . And he couldnt come up with another reason. Wind . No, he couldnt come up with another reason. So because he couldnt come up with another reason, they said, well, then that must mean that you touched it. I would have said, the rotation of the earth . The one the one grass thing that happened when you put a ball back down, you never know that it could be just barely ready to move. But i watched it , his club fac didnt touch the ball. By the way, this is a guy who lost in the past because he was penalized. Someone called in and said, wasnt that a bunker he was in . The usga looked like it was not good. He should have been able to take care of it without any questions one way or the other. Luckily for them. Because then then they had the announcers, i like the technology on fox, but i miss some of the guys im familiar with to cover golf normally. Anyway, they they just thats all they talked about for the theres a two hours. Then they had to alert the other players, wait a minute, if the other players dont know how close they are, they may play differently if they were one stroke back instead of two strokes back. So the entire tournament people were, is he not going to be assessed a penalty . It was just i cant say what it was without cursing. It was like a big it was a muddy mess . Hows that . It was all mucked up the way the usga handled this. Even a swing of the Golf Tournament or i stayed up to watch the basketball game. Did you really . That was like an 11 00 game. I did. Because as it was going, you couldnt stop it was so close. Talking about things getting mucked up, the polls swinging for the eu. Wilfred frost as more on this story. Wilfred in. Reporter good morning, guys. Yes, indeed, here outside the house of parliament, it will be a special session at 2 30 p. M. Local time today to pay tribute to the murdered mp jo cox. Whatever the reason behind it, theres been a big move in the polls over the weekend. Last thursday the ft poll of polls related to the brexit vote was 48 leave to 43 remain. That same poll after individual polls came out over the weekend is 44 each. And that clearly had a big effect on markets around the world rallying as the remain vote suddenly gains a bit of traction. In terms of diving down, its the reason that change in sentiment of the polls, it really comes down to unity. Increased unity on the remain side, reduced unity on the other side. On the remain side, both between the labor party and the conservative party leaderships both backing remain, theres increased unity. Jo cox was a labor backing remain. And predominantly coming out to vote remain, now theres a sense they will, in fact, turn out to vote. Perhaps it was lacking unity for some time before that. On the other side, terrible timing for the leave camp. Nigel faraj came out last week widely criticized by the likes of boris johnson, the leave campaigner from the conservative party, saying it strikes the wrong tone. Its not the reasons britain should leave. That is just highlighted the latest in the polls. The campaign has been suspended for the last three days. The leave was gaining traction. Over the blast three days of no campaigning, they remain back. The next three days we have a lot of campaigning to do. They have to fight back to get more momentum. Wilfred, thank you. Youre there, youve been there all weekend and you have been feeling things back and forth. Do you have any idea which way things are leaning just from people youre talking to, from what youre hearing . I know it is almost impossible to know at this point, but is there anything surprising to you about the move or that caught you off guard . Reporter british people, we dont really shout about politics. We dont wear our political allegiances on our sleeves and discuss it loudly and argumentatively day in and day out. And that is happening with this debate and happening this weekend at a reduced rate to what happened over the last week. And yet it still significantly elevated as an issue than it was in recent weeks. Lots of arguments between friends over pints at the pub has been happening over the recent weeks. Thats pretty rare. People have been really riled up by this issue. Because its very divisive. In one sense, people might just want to leave purely for sovereign issues, purely for Economic Issues. And then they get labeled as being xenophobic. Undoubtedly, the polls are close. When David Cameron announced this referendum a year or so ago and confirmed the date for february, he never thought it would be this close. Its unleashed certain senses in the british rhetoric which he didnt expect to come and it made it much closer than expected. Either way, however we look at it, it is incredibly close. The markets are dancing to the tune of brexit news. Today that tune is positive for markets. Who knows what will happen the next three days as this campaign picks up pace after three days of delayed campaigning. We dont argument in the loud terms like some countries that im not going to mention, but we have the terms of civility and calm spirit in no way similar to some other places where ive been spending some time lately. Our soccer matches, our fans are always very, very low key. And in the house of commons you mean football. Yes. In the house of commons, we trail have fistfights. But usually not like some other countries. All right, wilfred, whatever you say, buddy. Whatever you say. Reporter its an observation in terms of political discusses. Im not saying its a bad thing. Okay. Thats big of you. Reporter this is a good thing. This is a good thing, this debate. With the tone needed to come down a bit, turnout is expected to be high. Young people are excited by it. Im not saying its a bad thing at all. But its an observation i would make in the uk and think its a fair one. I do think the politics here have gotten quite a bit louder, too. Its a reflection of the sentiment around the globe at this point. It is something that is happening in a lot of different countries. Wilfred, well be checking back in. Reporter no doubt. The markets are waking up to it. Never usually do the markets care about the british politics. They certainly do this week. The whole world is watching. Wilfr wilfred, well be watching you and will check in again later this morning. For more on the fallout from brexit, well bring in joe and david kelly. Gentlemen, well talk about what the market is prepared for and geared up for. This morning, david, were looking at the futures sharply higher 185 points for the dow. Thats on the idea that a remain vote is more likely. What where are we which has the biggest position to lose . What is the surprise position . The first thing is, its too close to call, 44 44, im sorry, im not going to make a bet on it. The second thing is, if they vote to stay, then what weve got is uncertainty coming down on status quo. Thats got to be good for risk assets overall because its net positive with less uncertainty. If they vote to leave, it is really hard to know how markets will react because theres been so Much Negative pressure on sterling and Global Markets. Maybe its not as big a deal for the Global Economy as people like janet yellen seem to fear. Youre thinking that if they if the vote is to stay, that markets potentially rally. If the vote is to leave, the markets may stay calm and nothing happens . Well, we dont know. What we could see is happen is sell the rumor, people buy the fact. People will say, maybe well be okay here and all the negativity is sort of baked into that stage and markets rally. The uncertainty is certainly heard in the markets. Joe, do you agree with that . What you dont know about the playout on this is it is absolutely right. The status quo is what is going to be supported. So the moves in currency will be reversed whichever way the vote goes on. So if they vote to say, wednesday up where we were before. You have seen the volatility in the sterling and spilling right over into the euro because people are afraid of what is going to happen. If they vote to go, we dont know how long this will play out. You will get a reversal in whatever the fear vote was leading up to the exit vote. Although what wilfred pointed out, no matter what happens, half the country is going to be mad. Thats right. The thing im looking for, now its on twitter, if theres a vote to stay, everybody will be depressed. Where was that . The wall street journal today. The hedge fund. Right. Half and half, theres going to be a collective gray so we are going to stay in this mess. But if they vote to go, then the negotiated departure is going to go on for years. There isnt going to be that much change for the next six months or the next year. So its not a big deal. The economists are overplaying this . Exactly. I think they will wind up where they are right now. Very little change. But the Bilateral Agreement between the uk and europe is going to be quite, in many ways, similar to the agreements they have to put up with as part of the eurozone. Because the rest of the europeans are not going to let them have some sort of sweetheart deal to get free trade and nothing else. Although they have made a fairly effective case in saying that whats germany going to do, stop selling them cars . They would be more hurt by this than the uk because they are importing more. They have to make an example of britain if it leaves. Because if everybody the problem is, im not saying i necessarily agree with this, free trade is the most important part of the european pununion, if you can have free trade, then other countries say, why not us . Why dont we do that . So the cohesiveness of the European Union will be badly damaged if you can just have free trade but not the rest of the stuff. So joe, a lot of the places we have seen the turmoil break out has been the currency markets. The best place to get the read for what smart money is thinking. Thats exactly right. In the end, either vote will end up not very different than where we are now. If you get speculation currencies now, as we saw when it looked like the leave brexit vote was going to win, the sterling goes down, the euro goes down and the yen actually went up. Those are the standard trades in gold that went up. Those standard trades are going into a fear of departure. 146 sound like a fair level for the pound . I would say you can probably go to 148 or more if you get them to stay as it seems to be now. Another point which is true that if they do leave and have to negotiate, the people doing the negotiation on both sides are predisposed to continue the relationship. So youre going to get a long playout thats going to end up in kind of a similar situation. Its almost that the vote is a little more symbolic for political sovereignty than it is for economic sovereignty or economic difference. But markets dont like uncertainty and that is one thing this will add to over an extend period of time. They do not like uncertainty and also like to trade. Uncertainty is a good catalyst for if they vote to stay, one of the reasons the fed has for not moving goes away. They have to find Something Else to worry about. They will. Gentlemen, thank you. Good to see you both. Coming up, ken feinberg is consulting with the mayor of orlando to help compensate the victims of last weeks terror attack. He joins us next to talk about the channllenges in helping the families after the attack. For decades, investors have used a 60 40 stock and bond model, with little in alternatives. Yet alternatives can tap opportunities that traditional assets cant. And even though theyre called alternatives, theyre actually designed to help meet very traditional goals. Thats why invesco believes people should look past conventional models and make alternatives a core part of their portfolios. Translation . Goodbye 60 40, hello 50 30 20. Ithere was 14 of us in a four bedroom apartment. To be the first kid to buy a house. Its a very proud moment. Whatever home means to you, well help you find it. Zillow. Great time for a shiny floor wax, no . Not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. Timings important. Comcast business knows that. Thats why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. Even late at night, or on the weekend, if thats what you need. Because you have enough to worry about. I did not see that coming. Dont deal with disruptions. Get Better Internet installed on your schedule. Comcast business. Built for business. Welcome back to squawk box. More than 50,000 people attended a vigil for the victims from last weeks attack in orlando. Candles were lit for each victim as their names were read. Kenneth feinberg is here with us this morning. You seem to always get some business when bad business takes place. You pick up a newspaper and you hope you wont get the call. But you do, so you offer your service like everybody else would. So how does this happen . Did you just get a call out of the blue last week . I got a call from the mayors office. And then a call from a couple other funds down there. So i was been consulting various funds trying to help them fashion some sort of program. They have millions of dollars of un unsolicited funds. How much is it now . I think it is over 10 million. How you coordinate that, get everybody together to determine who is eligible is a challenge. So how do dyou think about . Well, you have to determine how much you have. How much goes to the families deceased and how much goes to the physically injured. Who gets the money . Theres always a dispute when theres money to be had. Mr. Feinberg, im the sister of the deceased, he didnt like his brother. Make sure he doesnt get it. Im a mother and split with the father. Youre like king solomon, how do you decide . You usually look to the local law and decide if theres a will. If theres no will, there wont be many wills. Deciding who will get the money and try to get it out as fast as you can. Speed, thats critical. And can i ask, so lets say theres 10 million, we know we think we know how many victims there are in total. How do you think about breaking that money up . And how do you think about breaking up the money to the relatives of people died and those still alive .

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