Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20160808 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box August 8, 2016

In asia overnight, markets there also closed higher. The nikkei was up by 2. 4 . Hang seng was up by 1. 5 . The shanghai composite up by 1 . In europe, in the early trading, again, more green arrows, the dax is the biggest one of the major advancers. Right now, german markets up by. 8 . The cac is up by. 4 of a percent much the ftse at. 1 . Crude oil prices were lifted by renewed talks by opec members to restrain output. We saw that ground pick up on friday and this morning, wti is up another 1 1 3 percent. Moss cow is ready to discuss an ol production freeze. Here are the stories to watch. Not a good day to fly delta. Thousands of passengers around the world experiencing delays this morning due to a system wide computer failure. Delta saying our systems are down everywhere. Thats in response to a user complaint. At delta news hub tweeting, due to a computer outage, flights awaiting departure are delayed. Flights on route are operating normally. Customers should check the status of their flight before heading to the airport while the issue is addressed. Meantime, passengers are reported delays at airporting, including londons heathrow, tokyo and l. A. Britains top corruption investigator opened a probe into airbus. Specifically, investors will look in their use of overae seas consultants and fraud, bribery and corruption in connection with sales. Japan Emperor Akihito making a rare video address saying he might step down. The 82yearold saying it may become difficult to fulfill his duties. While he has no political power, he is a revered figure in that nation and will be unprecedented in modern japan to have an emperor, guys, step down. That hasnt happened in about 200 years. You never hear from him. Once a year. Christmas greeting. This in particular back when they had the nuclear accident. Right. He actually addressed the public at that point too. Its been twice he addressed the public. Corporate news this morning. Talking about japan. The Fair Trade Commission raided the office of amazon japan on suspicion of antitrust practices. This according to a report in the nikkei. Imposing conditions on retailers of forcing them to sell products at a lower price if they were advertising on other Online Shopping sites. Were talking about shopping, walmart set to acquire the online bulk retailer jet. Com. We talked about this transaction last week. That deal expected to be about 3 billion. It should be announced today. Likely while squawk is on. Well bring that you news as it happens. Buying Mattress Firm for 3. 8 billion. It will pay about 64 per share. About 115 premium to the Mattress Firms friday Closing Prices. Quite a premium for a Mattress Firm and thats the name of the company and how firm are the mattresses . I like soft mattresses. Has anybody tried the mattresses that fill up with air . I own it. Do you . What do you think . Its pretty cool i dont want to give a commercial for the company. Theres two sides. Im a flopper. As you might imagine. So it does not disturb. Good. Can you jump up and down on them though . Due to my excessive weight, i may puncture said mattress. Brian is very tall for those who dont know. Tall is a euphemism for heavy, i appreciate that. Youre 64 . Yeah. You can look for the first read on labor costs a on thursday, well be getting july import prices and on friday, july retail sales, Producer Prices and august consumer sentiment. We have made it through the bulk of earnings season. 17 s p 500 companies reporting. Well hear from coach, disney and solar city on tuesday. On wednesday, michael kors and shake shack. Nordstrom on thursday. Rounding out friday, well hear from j. C. Penney. Gawker news. Theyre engaged in preliminary talks with hulk hogan to reach a settlement. Concerns of 140 Million Court judgment over invasion of privacy that led gawker to file for bankruptcy protection. Similar talks have taken place throughout the legal process. No agreement was reached. This coming a week ahead that will see deal now could allow hogan to cash out without waiting for the bankruptcy proceedings and to some extent, you might imagine who peter teal, the goal was to bankrupt the company and put it into this position. He may have already succeeded. If you remember, very interestingly on this show, nick denton, we asked him if he talked to peter teal. He wouldnt answer the question. He said i might have. He said if i had i wouldnt tell you. Twice. That goes a little bit to this. All right. Theres a developing story out of pakistan this morning. A massive bomb went off on the ground of a governmentrun hospital. In the southwestern part of that nation. Police say at least 53 people are dead. Dozens more are wounded. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the bombing of a hospital. Back in business news, julys jobs report blowing past the estimates with employers adding 255,000 jobs last month. It is the second solid report in a row for the fed to chew on. This week well be hearing more about the strength of the consumer with earnings reports from the retail sector. Joining us to break down the report is jim osullivan. Along with our guest host, steve forbes. Steve, i want to talk to you about a lot of Different Things today, including Donald Trumps plans. Lets start off with the jobs numbers. What does this tell us us about where we stand . It shows us what we should have been doing. Getting job creation. Were with an economy thats going 30, 40 miles an hour. Get a good report, disappointing report. Earnings is not what they should be. Business investment is not what it should be. New business creation not what it should be. Good news, bad news, were in a rut and thats what has people anxiety. Jim, how would you characterize what were looking at . Well, when you look at the last two weeks, the big numbers, employment report last week, gdp the week before, to some extent they characterize the recovery. Employment growth has been strong throughout. I dont think its just in the last couple of months. Weve been getting basically 200,000 a month for the last several years, which is pretty strong relative to the demographics. You put them together and productivity has been weak and tomorrow, another pretty weak productivity number. Strength or weakness, you point to or to gdp. Theyre both out there. People think the economy is weaker than the headline numbers tell you. Theyre saying that the jobs report isnt showing you everything. A lot of people have stopped looking for a job. Thats the constant refrain i hear from people. How do you think it is . There is a question within the employment report. Do you not have a job and youre not looking for a job. But you would actually like a job. Therefore, you are not count that number did go up in the early part of recovery and not quite br it was. That number has come back quite a bit. You look at surveys. Confidence and they ask people about perception of job market availability, et cetera. You align that with the Unemployment Rate and it looks consistent. I think its a consistent story. The labor market has improved. It unemployment a perfect number . Is it company touring everybody . Its not clear that its that different. When is the fed forced to act . Their own estimate of full employment is 4. 8. Maybe the real number is higher than that. Its not dramatically different from the number. The wage numbers are starting to drift up. In the meantime, theyre worried about downside risks, global developments, et cetera. Theyre not sure whats neutral for the fed funds rate. I think ultimately they have to tighten. Go ahead. For now, obviously, theyre signaling that extremely cautious and not ready right now. Steve is it fair to say you think the feds should hold off if the economy is weaker than a lot of the numbers indicate . I think the actions have been hurting the economy rather than helping it. When you have that skews the markets. Deforms the markets. Loans are small in new businesses, they have not is had the growth they should. Apple doing bond issuance for financial engineering. Not the best use of capital. The fed allows them to set the rates instead of manipulating them. You see a stronger economy. This idea you think its the feds fault or the obama administrations fault . Its both. In terms of massive regulations. In terms of taxes going up instead of down. But the federal reserves role has been totally underestimated in terms of perversely hurting credit markets, not helping them. If necessity allowed the markets to set rates, youd see a healthier this idea that theyre helping the economy by suppressing prices is not working. Does that mean you think they should start raising rates immediately and whats a normal rate at this point . Ideally, if rates were set by the market other than their discount rate, you wobt see them too much higher than they are today. Noerd, let the markets work o. Its not just the fed. Sure. Zero or negative Interest Rates everywhere else in the world looking at us at 1. 5 or 1. 6 for the tenyear. Looks like a better yield and pushes the yields down. Well, what you see around the world, you see with the European Central bank buying every bond they can lay their handson [ overlapping talking ]. Theyve hurt their credit markets. Japan has been on this for 25 years. Its been a disaster. Their economy has been stuck in the water. Europe, stuck in the water. Why britain, bank of england there, now going to do some of this when theyve backed off. Its perverse. Theyre going to hurt the economy, not help out. Can the fed swim upstream when every other central bank if the fed takes the lead, other Central Banks will eventually follow. You get a more normal credit market. Good. It distorts the markets. Hurts, not helps. This is amazing that theyve been doing it for years. Its failed for years. Yet, theyre never called were on literally and figuratively an economic island in merng. In relative terms, were better than other countries. For sure. Europe is not declining at this point. But no, we are clearing in a different stage and certainly theres nothing for that limit us as well. It doesnt mean it cant tighten. Lets talk about donald trump quickly. Were expecting an economic speech from him later today. Larry kudlow gave us some details. I see more details from steven moore in usa today. What do you think about what hes going to be announcing and how much do you know . The key thing is, the contrast is going to be, donald trump cutting taxes, Hillary Clinton raising taxes. Whats been amazing. Even though Hillary Clinton wants to appeal to republicans, shes not changed at all her left wing Bernie Sanderslike economic program. She wants increases in income taxes, estate taxes, gun taxes, soda taxes. Every kind of tax. This is trumps opportunity to get his campaign back on track. Theyre going to propose a 15 Corporate Tax rate. Propose other tax cut. Part is getting rid of estate tax, getting rid of a lot of other taxes. The problem is, he hasnt explained how hes going to pay for t the taxes are a small part of it. [ overlapping talking ]. The key thing is the irish have shown or the british have shown to a lesser extent, if you lower the Corporate Tax rate, it has an effect on the economy. [ overlapping talking ]. The cost over ten years has gone from 10 trillion to 2 1 2 or three. About a third of the cost of what it is. Some estimates put his current plan at 11 or 11. 5 trillion. Thats not the clinton campaign. But the thing is, hes going to have and this is what people will focus on. Its a pro growth thing that will provide relief, boost the economy, help your paycheck. Thats the key thing. Hes going to contrast his approach with her approach. And why she is going, doubling down, tripling down on big tax increases, including a crazy soda tax. You saw how well that went in new york city. Can he stay on message with that . This is the whole heart of the campaign. Its third term versus temperame temperament. Shot himself in the foot repeatedly. If you saw him on friday making that endorsement announcement, that was a chagrin man who finally realized his campaign is in trouble. If he doesnt change it, its over. Do you think he can stay the course on that . He takes to twitter and attacks everyone who attacks him. Youre going to bring a knife to the fight, hes going to bring a gun. When you have 100 days to get the Biggest Office any human being can have in the world, it might focus the mind. Keep on it. Okay. Were going to take a quick break. Were going to have a whole conversation about donald trump and Hillary Clinton with you in just a minute. Thank you for staying here. Youre not sticking around. But nice to see you, sir. Thank you. Donald trump and Hillary Clinton set to deliver economic addresses this week. Jeff harwood joins us to talk about trumps speech and well continue this conversation with mr. Forks. He joins us in a moment. The first stock index musicwas createdughout over 100 years ago as a benchmark for average. Yet many people still build portfolios with strategies that just track the benchmarks. But investing isnt about achieving average. Its about achieving goals. And invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of highconviction investing. Translation . Its time to bench the benchmarks. Donald trump to unveil details. Hell be delivering that speech in detroit around noontime. Thats where john harwood is this morning. John . Good morning, andrew. I dont know if the detail part of that. I talked to a policy adviser last night who said this is a vision speech. Well be giving details later on our tax plan and on our child care proposal. Let me run through the highlights of what hes going to allude to. Hes going to propose making all child care expenses for all families fully deductible. This is a competition with Hillary Clintons proposal to limit a familys child care expenses to 10 of their income. Dont know details about how much that would cost or how it would be paid for. But trump is going to allude to that. Hes going to allude to a moratorium on new regulations. Of course, donald trump talked about repealing dodd frank and hes saying in the meantime, well put a full stop on that. Hes going to reiterate which has talked about before, support for a 15 Corporate Tax level. Thats not new. In terms of the deficit impact, steve moore and larry kudlow have talked about reducing the cost of his tax plan from 10 trillion as estimated after growth by the Tax Foundation to Something Like 2 or 3. When i asked a policy adviser last night, the answer was this is not a tax speech. This is a vision speech. I dont know what were going to get. Let me run through estimates that moodys analytics did of the plans as we understand them so far. On jobs, effects in 2020, clinton would add 3 million. Donald trump would subtract 7. 6 million. Because the moodys analytics, a team led by mark zand i has said that donald trump would lead to a recession. His trade policies, the deficit that is he would create. Secondly, effect on gdp in 2020. Clinton would add 300 billion. Donald trump would subtract 1 trillion. The effect on the deficit, clintons would add to the deficit astrum ps would. 85 billion in 2020. Donald trump adding a trillion dollars to the deficit. Thats where we stood after the two candidates have released what they have so far. Whether donald trump is going to fine tune details today or later, we dont know yet. John harwood in detroit, well be watching that speech and waiting to hear your thoughts. Afterwards, well continue this conversation today. Steve forbes is the chairman and editor in chief of forbes. Heres what i want to tell you. This is from the economist magazine this morning. After donald trump announced who his Economic Team was going to be. The result of trumps choices of advisers is that the Economic Policy remains unpredictable because promises are detached from economic reality. It will reduce wages rather than raise them. He cannot cut taxes, leave Social Security untouched and reduce the National Debt all at once. He goes on to say the consequences for the economy could be grave indeed. Why are they wrong . Well, just take the economist. We have the brazilian olympic games. They had a cover story seven years ago. Brazil is going to be the new giant economic power of the world. We saw where that prediction went. In terms of the specifics on what trump is magazine man remembers a cover were competitive. I get it. Getting to the point here, on the trade things, that is a real downer. What were going to hear in the speech today, i think, is the beginnings of a way in which more of a european type of system. Rebate at the border some business taxes. Do what the europeans do, kosher under International Trade agreement. That way he can say im doing something about trade without blowing up the whole system. How do you feel well see if we get a hint of that today. On the corporate side, in britain and the greater extent in ireland. When you get that tax low, you remove barriers from bringing profits back from overseas. Thats going to be stimulative. We have said this doesnt cost a lot of money, gives you running room to do other goodies like child care and whatever else to throw in there. I want to ask you about Donald Trumps judgment. I imagine well have this conversation on thursday when she gives her speech. Putting aside the merits and youre good at staying on message when it comes to the economy. He says his words trumps words and actions are shockingly unacceptable in our diverse and Democratic Society that simply unthinkable that donald trump could be our president. Well, even though hes had a rotten two weeks, hes still 38, 40, 42 . Which shows the dissatisfaction of the last eight years, ten years. People talk with it being unforced errors, if you will. Not just about unforced errors but the implications of them. You have come on this show and talked about how peoples words, unto themselves, can h

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