Everybody waiting to see what happens. 8 30 a. M. S p futures down by less than a point. The nasdaq up by 1. 5. Yesterday you saw the nasdaq close down by basically it was flat. It was down 0. 9 points or something. It was flat. Dow and nasdaq did manage to eke out gains. Check out what happens overnight in asia. The nikkei looks like it was flat lining as well. Up 3. 5 . Shanghai comp and hang sang both a little bit higher. In europe, youll see thing are relatively positive if evfor th major averaging at least. Dax up slightly. And lets take a look at crude oil. This was the wbig story yesterday. Major pull back for crude oil prices. We have had people who have told us this week that crude was going to come down because of seasonality issues. We did see numbers this week. That has put pressure on wti. Now to the weather. Hermine has downgraded to a Tropical Storm, but not before becoming the first hurricane to make land fall in florida since 2005. The storm brought 80mileperhour winds and rain. The east coast all the way up to new jersey bracing for what is next. Well get a live update from the Weather Channel later in the show. I need to learn how to say hermine. Hermine, its a different name. Shes a famous person now. Big time actress now after starting in that as a little kid. Its not her why didnt they whats a hermine. Ive never heard. Its a different name. Is it a name . Yes. Lady fed president. Loretta,ester, we need a hermine. Hawk or dove. See whether they cause a storm today. We have you here. For that reason. Its a big day. Andrew is out anyway, but we could have had somebody else conceivably. Is that your definition of a welcome basket. Yes, take it. As good as its going to get. Strange strawberry preserves. Can i go on . Good morning, joe. Here are big corporate storying were watching today. Samsung halting galaxy note. Batteries have exploded or caught fire while charging. Found 35 cases. 35 of problems like that with the battery cells. Offer a Global Exchange program for phones that have already been sold. Samsung says about two weeks to prepare replacement. The shares i guess thats today because yesterday they got really crushed. A potential 10 billion deal on the market. Hewlettpackard enterprises reportedly looking for a buyer for software unit. In talks with the buyout firm tomo bravo. According to reuters, hp has already received offers at about 7. 5 billion and those shares this morning not moving much. Up a little bit as you can see yesterday. August turned out to be a good month for bill iek man. This is the flip side. You live by the sword, die by the sword. He has been pushing for change. Seems to be paying off because the shares rose 30 . That was the stock when he was on last week. Was it last week . Yes. Bought of herbalife, but so he mentioned he never thought he would be in a stock down 90 . 90 , its hard to ride that down. Its up a little. Up 30 . And he said hes up for the month. Per strks hing is still track to lose more than 14 . The only thing good about that is he should have to pay you 20 of the 14 . Yes. Definitely have to get back to some of these guys close down the ones theyre never going to get back. They get that 20 . The ones are planning to stick in there and plan to get high water marks. Its six years of under performance for these masters of universe. For me its gratifying because you think, wow, im not nearly as smart as these guys. How do they do it year in and year out. The ones who do have success, its galgorithms. Trading, massi iive baskets. No one being a Value Investor and looking at things. If youre 51 , youre good. Thats all you ever aim for. These guys who have these marquee years a couple years in a row and then drop off the radar, you dont hear. You guys are making the argument for index invests. Which is what we have to do at cnbc so something to be said for our very strong conflict of interest policies. Your work in forecasting the job cast numbers is at best 50 . Im not insulting you, but when you come up with your number sometimes youre 100,000 offer. Thats the margin of error. I pray for being within 50. Thats my hope. It is within 50. What happened last month . Last month i was off. You were off last month. I tell you. The month before you were on. The entire street ufs off. Even with adp you cant come close. Whats your number this time . 177 . I got 142 this month. Below adp. Why . Because the manufacturing number which plays too big a role in my model was lame. Was below 50. I use ism manufacturing employment component which can do a good job. The claims numbers help. The adp number helps. I didnt have the ism services. You have to look at a piece of the journal day. Just the other day, we were arguing about whether the drop in the Participation Rate was just retired people. The idol army. Youre supporting my argument. Back in the last year of the Great Depression in 1940, americans employed between the ages of 2554 was 86. 4 . Now its 84. 4. Down 2 percentage points. Lower than it was at the end of the depression for Participation Rate of men 2554. Its an abysmal number for people in that age. Youre talking about men because women have entered the workforce. Far be it for me to be any type of gender. She makes a good point. Im glad youre here. The demographics have changed drastically. Im glad youre here. Im glad michelle is here. Alison is here. Is that really youre blaming women. No demographics have changed. My wife works now. My daughter works. Ive got everybody working sglg if they didnt work, there would be more jobs for men, joe. You said that, not me. Thats what youre arguing. The world is a better place. We need women Decision Making ability. Men, you know what theyre thinking about most of the time. Football. After that finish thinking about that other stuff every seven seconds. Pro bulls are looking for the job report to put the case back for better second half growth. Putting back on track after the disappointing manufacturing report yesterday. The Manufacturing Index which went into negative contraction nare territory has been seen by some as an aberration and warning of a recession by others. Heres what to watch for today. Nonfarm payrolls. Average Hourly Earnings number. Expect to be up 0. 2 . That would be a tenth lower than the gain last month. Some of the data has been positive. Adp as we talked about has come out. The Economic Data so far pointing to a decedent second half rebound of around 2. 5 to 3 . Together with inflation. Thats at least not falling even though its below the feds 2 target rate. A decedent job number could be enough to give the fed a green light to hike. Some doves could oppose such a move and the rest of the data has to cooperate in september for the fed to hike. September 20 is the actual date. We have a retail sales report, cpi report. Bunch of other data. This is not the only thing going. Its a necessary precondition of the fed is going to hike. My own thing is how does a fed chair who says in august the case is strengthening for a hike, if she gets a good jobs report and good other data that points to a 2 or 3 growth rate in the quarter, how does she not hike in september. I dont see what the excuse would be for not doing that. Lets bat this around the table. Were going be in alison jer regard. Michelle. What do you think with this. The ism number was weak. If youre looking at manufacturing its contractings and thinking about raising rates which would in turn hike the dollar and put pressure on things. Is that enough for them to say maybe we need to hold off another month. Or, again, whats the urgency . I guess in Janet Yellens mind who is probably more cautious than some of the others on the committee, the question probably is is there an urgency to move as you said there are some signs with the ism. Auto sales pulled back a lot of talk. Theres some signs that maybe were kind of losing a bit of momentum and more importantly on the inflation front, we saw on monday with the numbers they like to look at on inflation, were not making further progress. Weve been stuck on the core inflation rate. I think were going to get an Hourly Earnings number today thats going to be lower. I think we also are going to get a relatively benign cpa. Whats the urgency to act if were not quite sure. Except that want the get points on the board and preserve the credibility. Am i right with that. I think those are two really good points. The fed, michelle, is in a hiking mode. Yes. They are in a large normalization. You have to hike rates to be in a hiking mode. Nine months on pause. Honestly all the arguments for raising Interest Rates could have been made and should have been made a year or two years ago. What im kind of questioning now is is the move at point. Youre two years closer perhaps in terms of the economy to me looks less robust now than it did a year ago. Its more vulnerable to the Global Situation itself in the wake of brexit is less clear. But if you missed your opportunity, does that mean dont go for it. Is that the question. Exactly. Have they missed that window. If you only think you have to go because the neutral rate is lower. You think you only need to go once or twice. Is it worth the effort. The market backs up michelle. 23 chance of hike. I agree with michelle. I dont think the number is going to come at 180. The statistics strung. On top of it you had the auto numbers. We are consumer driven economy, i think the fed does wait to the end of the year. Whats the rush. At this point, expectations are low anyway. What about the possible accusation theyre overly influenced by the election . I dont get that sense. Theyve been clear. I think the other thing is data has opinion very inconsistent. They said nine months ago considering hikes and brexit. Weve had all the events happen to make you think we have an economy thats pretty shaky and it wouldnt be that advised. What about the idea the fed i keep reading this too. Theyre not influenced by that, but influenced by the market. If the fed futures are pointsing to only 23 chance they dont want to shock the market. Is that fair or is that not . Steve, you know this too. I think the fed has multiple ways of getting the message out to the market to adjust market expectations. Theyve been job owning a lot. The more frekt frequently they do that and dont follow through the less effective. Its up to the data to meet the job owning in a way. Kernen, why dont you weigh in here. Youre the one clam minoring for the rate hike. Exhausted. Preaching to the choir. Joe and i are in the same camp. Waiting and waiting. Youve given up the ghost. Michelle, im mad it will dollars. Sometimes you have to do things that have negative near term consequences just to do what you have to do. I agree with you on that. I also think clawing back a little bit of ammunition for the future. You havent mentioned this. When i hear a guy like the boston fed president say that he is starting to worry more about the Financial Stability aspects of low rates and if cost of that outweighs the potential benefit, im not sure the market is entirely listening to that. Zerk a voter this year. He is one pounding the table for low eer rates and that doesnt change your mind . Honestly, this fed could very well i dont know if theyll hike in september or december. I just think its at the wrong time. I think the case was much stronger a year or two ago and to me, things look and as a rule, i tend to be pretty optimistic. Im more worried about the economy than at any point. Not that were going necessarily into a recession, but were more vulnerable now. Even though rates are low and hiking once or twice doesnt necessarily hurt, but you know to the extent it may in any way provide another headwind at a time we may be getting vulnerable by the sheer age of expansion and whats going on globally, to me it would be the icing on the cake they end up doing it now. Why should we believe theres something to the age of expansion. Youre absolutely right. This cycle has been so different. A lot of the things we would talk about in terms of being late cycle dont apply. Housing is clearly not late cycle even though were so far in, but we are at a point where its hard to envision employment going to suddenly ratchet up from here. You cant have it both ways. Either you got the its take then long or you have an extra five years. If you believe in that and thats why were still slow or were doing something self inflicted. I think were coming its the husband. His wife. Coming off of a big crisis, a situation where theres a tremendous amount of leverage in society and i dont think its that late. We have more time and the recovery has been so tepid. Its hard to figure out what the imptous would be for the company to suddenly pick up. It doesnt have to pick up from two to three. Even going at two. I could think of a lot of ways to pick up. You get a new president. Fiscal policy would be the easiest. Are you talking about the same thing. When you sail fiscal policy. Corporate tax reform. Tax regulation. Tax reforms, tax cuts. More stimulus that way. Probably more through infrastructure, but in beoth candidates. We need a better policy than right now. Were at zero Interest Rates theres worse things than some infrastructure projects. We need the regulation. Theyre still coming. Hundreds of billions of dollars or added regulations over the last seven or eight years. Absent that sort of change. Thats what im saying. Its hard to think about what companies. Weve hired a lot of workers already t. At least obamacare worked out for your steve. Got to go. Coming up, more joe kernen. Donald trump bringing some new blood to his campaign. Details next. Still ahead, jobs friday. The companys ceo is here to tell us which sectors are hiring and which ones are firing. Squawk box will be right back. [cheg] the hidvce4. Coming up, more joe kernen. Welcome back to squawk box. Donald trump has named david bossy as new campaign manager. Gop nominee telling the Washington Post that bossie is smart, loves politics and knows how to win. August was a big fund raising month for the clinton campaign. Raking in 143 million last month. A 58 jump from july. However, the donations to her campaign remaining flat in both july and august. The campaign raised about 62 medic million indicating the increase was large contributions to the Democratic Party itself. Donald Trumps Campaign has not released august fund raising numbers. And the g20 meeting kicks off on sunday in china. Were getting more inside on some of the topics that will be discussed. President obama is expected to talk to World Leaders about limiting Corporate Tax avoidance strategies and creating a fair global tax system. Lets get to john harwood with an update from the campaign trail. I assume most of that 150 or whatever it was was raised domestically since foreign entities arent allowed to directly. Thats a good assumption, joe. You cant do it. Youve got to go to the foundation. You cant go into the actual coffers for the campaign. I wish they would release the other stuff. Thats what i would like to see. Reporter were in the close of the dog days of summer. Were about to start the last chapter of the campaign. The most important of which in a little over three weeks from now are the debates. Were really going to get to it will point which donald trump is going to see if he can breakthrough, if he can ralt Hillary Clinton, if he can do something to overcome the lead, which has gotten smaller, but still substantial. And as steves intro just indicated. Weve got this amazing contrast in the campaigns. Hillary clinton running a by the book campaign. Collect a lot of cash, advertising battleground state. Donald trump doing a lot less of those things and with a free wheeling band that includes steve bannon and bossie. Did battle with bill and Hillary Clinton for a long time. Its a very unusual. None of us have seen anything like it matchup and were going to find out whether Donald Trumps unorthodox strategy is going to pay off. She does think she has the lead. She does have the lead. I know. Okay. She must have the lead because shes not scheduled to do anything again for another four or five days, john. Reporter thats exactly the point. Hasnt answered any questions from reporters for 270 plus days. Reporter thats one of the weirdness of this cycle. Youve got a Convention Nominee who thinks her opponent. Hof course hes going to say something. Thats a safe strategy. A lot of times too much defense. Reporter im agreeing with you. My point is if they stay out of the way, if they turn the volume down and let donald trump turn the volume up, thats going to benefit them. In this campaign, its been the candidate who talks the most at any given point that the polls dont favor. Reporter right. Youve got this situation where if the elections about her thats bad for her. If its about him, thats bad for him. Donald trump doesnt seem to have the same ability or desire to keep the focus on her. One could make a point. Reporter he attracts attention. One point beyond the right Campaign Strategy and right thing to do is. One of the right things for Hillary Clinton to do is face the press and answer questions. Just like its wrong for. Sure. Agreed. We can talk about Campaign Strategies all we want. We can talk about the right thing to do. The public needs it. From a public point of view. Thats the to face the press. Im with you. Okay. You could say the same thing about candidates. Tax returns. Its not necessarily the right thing to do. It is absolutely the right thing to do. Lets say he takes all the real estate deductions, you know how long youre going to talk about it. Whatever, joe. Its been done by every single candidate. Whatever, i wouldnt do it. If theres no. Youre making argument why hillary wont talk to the press. More than halfway anything. Not on this. Its not about policy. What youre going to do for your country. It is when youre talking about changing the tax policy, tax structure, tax code. Ma healthcare more personal atntcenic, dital invations; fr sfning dices thatan ieret personal da and enabinte providersc platfort to colte wthe thats w o90 ve. Ofhe top5s arturning to cogniza.