There you have it again, green arrows pretty much everywhere. The whole world is happy. Except for short sellers. And were watching crude prices this morning. Yesterday iraqs oil minister said the country should be exempt from joining opecs Production Cut embroiled in a war with islamic militants. Opec is planning to reduce production targets at the november meeting. Wti is lower by 5 cents but still at 50. 80. And scottrade is being acquired for 4 billion from ameritrade. Some competitor of scottrade said, why deal with us . We have a helicopter. No one really understood what was the because its successful. It trades more quickly to where they need to go by helicopter. It happens over the internet. So its confidence . A little bit of confidence. Interest rates are zero. Im confident, ill borrow money, too. A little confidence. People think the economy is a little better than we think. I dont think thats it. Well talk to the ceos at 7 00. For the media mega merger monday. I would argue that all the deals i dont know if i want to hear your argument today. Im sorry. I didnt prepare for this today because i was told it was not going to happen. How many of them . All of them . M a is very hard to cover. At that time of 6 00 in the morning when i was skeptical of this transaction to happen someone told you that. Or do you want to take the credit for being wrong . I would hang it on a source. No, im taking credit. You dont want to hang it on a source . No, i dont. I want to talk about at t buying time warner for 107. 50 per share. About 85. 4 billion, half in cash, half in stock. It is the biggest deal in the world this year. If approved, the tieup would give at t control of hbo, cnn, tbs, tnt, warner bros and other media assets. At t bought directv last year for 48. 5 billion. This new deal widely expected to receive intense scrutiny by antitrust regulators. Here to weigh in on that, ed lee, managing editor of recode joining us from washington, d. C. This morning. And every article on the front page of every newspaper this morning, at t facing a political banra banrage. What do you peg the chances at . I give it 60 chance of passing. I think theres good arguments for why it should pass, which is it doesnt hurt competition or take away consumer choice. At the same time, by that same argument, the deal itself doesnt make sense to me from a Business Economic perspective, which is a distributor owning content. That does not help either side or boost the value. Has it done anything for comcast, nbc . Comcast runs the cable business well. And nbc runs the content business well. But one doesnt necessarily boost the area. Thats what i think. A slow Growth Company like at t, what do you do when everybody already has so you want to change your service, fine. But by owning time warner, its not going to help you because hbo, cnn, turner networks, all that stuff has to be as widely distributed as possible, meaning you cant cut out other distributors. Wouldnt you say, for example, if you get an at t Wireless Phone, you get hbo go at a cheap rate. You cant do that. You have to offer the same rate to other distributors then. You want to weigh in here . Im more skeptical about the odds that this is easily approved. I think that they have to get fcc approval, and that is a very loose standard that can be very politicized and very difficult to get the deal through. They are trying to avoid the fcc. If they go through the department of justice, it is antitrust. This deal legally could pass muster, but i think the doj under a new administration could face some political pressure. I mean, i think it is really telling they are announcing the deal 17 days before the most populist president ial election in history. I think that puts this front and center on the politicians radar screens in the middle of this president ial debate. But the whole thing, cooler heads prevail after this insane election. Both sides are saying things they dont believe about the tpp, free trade, nobody believes any of this, barton. Once we get somebody in there that knows how the world works, they are going to look at this, read the journals oped piece. This takes care of the problems the fcc was worried about it. It opens up the future to the broadless, wireless ban. Im worried you are going to need autonomous driving. It is clear if they would have waited until after the election, they would face less scrutiny. I dont think they had time. It was not in line with the president ial campaign. Well talk to randall and jeff about this in the 7 00 hour. But we also thought that was the issue. They wanted it after the election. But i agree, if the fcc gets ahold of it, its harder with politics involved. 40 chance it doesnt pass. If thats the case, look for other networks to jump in and say, maybe we should buy it. I talked to randall yesterday on the telephone and jeff, they will be here today, but the most interesting thing to come out of the conversation, which i hope we talk about today a lot, is the idea of 5g. And the next Generation Development for at t and the idea that ultimately theyll be able to offer a National Footprint into your home, no cables, this is where we are completely wireless. And to the extent that you believe we live in a monopoly in most markets for cable, that this creates all sorts of new competition. But also creates new pressures on Cable Companies. To up their game, change their pricing. Potentially having to but the question is, do they end up having to go off and buy does comcast have to buy tmobile next, for example . And do regulators let any of this happen given they didnt want a Cable Provider to have a National Footprint before . All great questions. The 5g thing is exactly the right attack. My question is, you dont need to buy time warmer to do that, did you . Thats a technology upgrade. Randall makes the argument, agree or disagree with it, that it creates incentive to build out the network because you know have internet faster than otherwise. But customers could say, we demand it, so it doesnt matter. Verizon says, im going to sell hbo and cnn and turner network, you cant deny me the same access to the content. Ill pay you a good rate. What did directv do . Did that give at t the foothold into being the biggest paid tv outlet . So it gives them scale, but does directv make sense on a 5g wireless universe . Well, if you can get all your internet, whether your video stuff or just the stuff youre doing through a wireless connection, its just as fast and reliable as a wire. That was a pretty expensive acquisition. Does it add to the whole Product Offering for at t to have directv there, too . I think its a head scratcher which they buy time warner. You already talk about the competition with the Cable Companies nationally, at t was taking it mobile. So i think this really begs the question whether they get the fundamental benefits. Time warner has had a bat history of pipes and content. Sure, they cant change the pricing on hbo, tnt or cnn, but they have a great Creative Engine in time warner. If unleashing them to make new channels like directv now and other things exclusive fundamentally to this service that wont be grandfathered a legacy of products, it would have to be given to everybody five to ten years from now. Could you create the next amazon prime under the banner of the at t . If the regulators like that. You just raised a key point, grandfather, what will they do . The political environment is difficult to come out with meaningful content just on this network and not available to verizon and comcast. So it makes the whole foundation of the deal verizon has go 90 and nobody is telling verizon to this is a difficult merger. I understand where they are going. If the regulators pass the exclusive content on the networks, sure, it could be great for them. But im not sure that is going to happen. Reporter what about the fcc, the doj versus the fcc, it would be easier through the doj, i find it hard that the fcc wont want something to do with this. I think they will say, shoot, they outsmarted us. Darn it, we have spent all this time on broadband and net neutrality. Look at these guys coming over us. Theyre going to want a piece of that, arent they . They want to be able to deck at a time. The problem is time warner doesnt have meaningful fcc licenses. They have legacy tv station in atlanta and georgia. But they will not allow the fcc to get it reviewed. This is like time warmer cable 2009, why does this make sense now . I understand from a shareholder perspective, 107 shares is better than what it is trading now. Of course it is a good deal for him. It is another thing to distribute is it different factors . From a content licensing perspective, it doesnt change your calculus at time warner. Well ask the questions or answer the questions here. Ultimately it had to get bigger. And that is a more successful way to create value than they could have done just sumply on their own. I think. I think that is what hell tell y you. Time warner cable wouldnt be anywhere close to the scale of which this is. But thats randalls deal, not his. Not everybody is just worried about whether they will be the guy running it. I think given 64 to 65 i think hes been planning for years now. He beat the nation and we should have traded the nation. Before we go, do you think theres going to be more consolidation meaning if you have more wireless players, are they all going to want to try to get to a wireless struck cur . They absolutely have to. Is there enough spectrum . How many competitors will you ultimately have if at t is right, this is the way the world is going, which its only netflix sends dvds in the mail. Comcast could be part of what is happening here. And it has scale, too, in business. You know, the demise of running cable into your home theres a good argument to be made that cable, you will always need cable to create the wireless. Thats a separate issue. Barton, thank you. Ed, thank you. Appreciate it. And a programming note that we told you is coming its exciting. The at t chief randall see stephenson and jeff bewkes the time warmer ceo is here and will join us at 7 00 a. M. Alphabetic by last name, right . Interesting. Other news because people are happy and Interest Rates are at zero. Rockwell collins is buying be aerospace at 62 a share in cash and stock or 6. 4 billion. Thats roughly 23 premium to be aerospaces Closing Price on friday. You know, at t is getting a lot of debt at this point. Yep. A good time for Interest Rates to stay at zero and will for a while. You dont want to go below triple yield plus, right . Where are you going with this . Thats something to think about, too. You have to worry about whether or not Interest Rates oh, you need the cash flow. There are a number of balance reports out about the issue with the debt and therefore the security of the stock itself. And i like the cash flow, obviously. If people are willing to pay high yielding as of late, your Interest Rates may not go up that much, even if you are merger monday, genworth is being bought by chinese oceanwide for 2. 7 billion. Its only a 4 premium. Chinese outbound m a hit a record 181 billion this year. The company is looking to acquire overseas assets as their domestic account sells those. When we return, well show you the busiest morning for earnings season. Well talk strategy after the break. Back in a moment with more squawk. Coming up, Barry Sternlicht is. I think hes a product of this president obama. I thought we would go into a recession and we didnt. Im actually surprised. And investing in real estate. We have 84,000 apartments today. Growth is up 6 . Where do you see growth like that . Thats coming up at 7 00 a. M. Right here on squawk box. What powers the Digital World . Communication. Like centurylinks Broadband Network that gives 35,000 fans a cutting edge game experience. Or the network that keeps a leading hotel chains guests connected at work, and at play. Or the it platform that powers millions of ecards every day for one of the largest greeting card companies. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. Welcome back to squawk box. Tomorrow look for caseshiller and consumer confidence, thursday durable goods and pending hopend ing home sales. And it is the heaviest week of earnings. Among the big names to watch, 3m, caterpillar, dupont, general motors, apple, boeing, cocacola, comcast, tesla, ford, ups, alpha bebet, amazon, chevr. We may not have to use the eword. Election . The other eword. Theres economy, earnings. We only have 14 days. Then one of them becomes president. Ive taken the new view. I have. Its a bit of a relief for maybe private sector and business people. Just a bit of a relief. It is a bit of a relief. What is . That the eight years is coming to a close. What are you talking about . I dont care what do you mean . I can see how that doesnt register with you at all. The last eight years and the antiprivate sector, the constant confrontation between private sector and government. And you have two candidates who are going to go after the private sector, both of them. There are personality things that bother to your point about the left, even this is my problem with the current occupanoccupant. Its been a long eight years. And at least its about over. Some are complaining about Elizabeth Warren and now she gets more power in this administration. I dont understand why you are so excited. Because Hillary Clinton deep down is smart oh, my goodness, save the tape save the tape shes smart. And she understands, i think, the private sector. She may have had people from the private sector as part i also think for her legacy, she wants to make sure its the best economy if she becomes president. She wants to make sure its the best the reason all your friends are giving money this is listen to me. Throwing in the towel. I cant deal with this. Bravo. Politicians, in general, none of them are going to win the award for, you know, honesty. I mean, they all are doing things this doesnt mean youre going to vote for her. Thats why theres a curtain on dressing rooms and in voting booths. Nothing has happened. This is going to come to an end. It cant happen soon enough for some people. For more on the markets, joining us now is Geena Martin Adams from wells fargo securities. And steven whiting, the global chief strategist at citigroup private bank. Good morning. Good morning. Lets go back to talking about things that are easier to handle. The other two es. Well, it will be above last year. Fourth quarter will be above last year. And next year, and the way we look it will be above 6 for next year. This is the streak end for down quarter. It is just barely above. If you take the report so far and odden everybody yet to report to meet expectations, youll get 1 growth on the year over year basis. But we dont meet, we beat. So youre going to get closer to 2 growth yearover year. Interestingly, that was the expectation three months ago. 2 growth year over year. That is probably what were going to get. Now were beating the expectations. So were about where we are expecting to be in july. So its not a huge gain, but we totally agree also well see Earnings Growth next year. Relative to the last year. Over the last year, we had a 6 drag from last year. We would have been six Percentage Points higher except for one sector. And now we are above water and the rest of the economy is not growing great, but compare that to where Interest Rates are and it is an income premium to where we are rate market. So like it better than bonds. You have thought about friday what the gdp is going to be initially and what it will be at the end. The story and the initial take on this it will be about 2, but heavier on inventory and weaker on final demand quarter to quarter. Well see if the revisions to the underlying data change that story. But this time around its a little stronger on the headline, a little weaker on the demand side for that quarter. And that allows december they really want to do it and should want to do it, but are they still getting a lot of pushback from people who think inflation is still not where it necessarily needs to be. And why would you raise rates with a 2 or below gdp . My take on this out of the fed is that they are a little closer to agreement than i think it shows. The hawks dont want to do a lot and the doves want to wait a little longer. If you put this all together, next years expectation for two quarter point rate hikes is finally in the rem of reason for everyone. So i think this particular meeting where they didnt even cite the weakness in the august data, you know, just the absence of discussion of that, i think, is meaningful. And we cant quite tell if it is november or december. Markets are off course counting on december giving the precedent of having an election. I wouldnt entirely rule out that they could have a november 2nd tightening step. What do you think of the m a activity this morning . Historically people say its a great time for the markets, they are doing deals, but also historically you see a big, big deal and it marks the peak of something. Well, we have had a lot of big, big deals the last few years. And the market has been struggling to make new highs. I think companies are finding it difficult to find those Investment Opportunities beyond m a with the perilously slow 2 growth rate across the world. The only growth they can find is through acquisition. And that is playing out in stock Price Performance as well. I dont know that it necessarily, especially a small segment of telecom, does it mark the top . Not necessarily. M a took a down trend and now we are back on the up swing. So its been back and forth. I dont think m a suggests its a huge top. This is a consequence of extremely slow rates and slow growth. Cheaper to buy and build. Absolutely. In the past people have suggested it means the market could go higher because theres more buying to be done. Usually m a and stocks move higher together. Quite frankly, one of the powerful drivers of stock is the takeout of stocks. And this is just another form of that as theres just fewer shares around to buy. Charles biederman said that. Im not kiddi