European equities everybody is keying off everybody. Again red arrows pretty much across the board and finally can you look at crude prices right now. Wti terrible session. When we were talking yesterday we were up 40 points in the morning. Funny way things happen. Theres sort of a premise and maybe its correct among democrats or people who favor hillary that trump would be a disaster for the stock market and sell off. Its funny when you see the market go down yesterday for whatever reason, uncertainty or whatever, it becomes oh, its uncertainty. You think its because maybe now trump can win . I wont go that far. Its uncertain. A Hillary Clinton win because more uncertain. Really in the past two days the likelihood of donald trump winning not two days. Five days. More than that. Two weeks. Whatever length of time you want to give it his chances have increased whether you think they are substantial or not clearly the market thinks they are substantial. And i have i know you disagree but that in at least the Immediate Impact is sort of a knee jerk sell off and ask questions later. I do believe, by the way, if you do ask the questions later the market will stabilize and might come back. Im not trying to get you to get any of these places. When you see it sells off that could be an indication that some people think that hillary is not a lock which has been three or four times its been the election has been over three or four times. The polls are so varying at this stage. You have reuters that says clinton up by five. Nbc clinton says trump up by six. Now l. A. Times says trump is up by six. Swing states. Did you see the polls. Pennsylvania, North Carolina. Some of the locks that were and florida and ohio now almost look like i wont say safe. But its getting very, very interesting. Earlier people pointed out 538 nate silver had the cubs chances of coming back and trumps chances were almost to the decimal point. I think they had a 25 chance both. And just thinking about what a 25 chance actually is. It sounds like 99 . If you have a 75 chance you think its a done deal. But the ability of the cubs to win three games thats not out of the question. Your saying were in game seven of the election. They won two. They blew them out last night. One game. I love seventh games. I may have to stay up. Cubs could still lose. 25 chance can, in fact, happen. Therefore, what happens to the market . The cubs, i think everybody would be happy and people might buy just based to ending. What is it . 108 years whatever. Ending that drought might give everyone im agnostic on that stuff. Market. Im going read your piece from yesterday to understand what the markets are going to do. Like ed keenan. How are you he said it in the notes. All right. Were going to get his take and talk to him he said that. We do have a full economic agenda today. October adp employment report is out at 8 15 eastern. The forecast is for an increase of 170,000 in private payrolls. Fed wraps up its two day meeting today, a policy statement but no press conference happens at 2 00 p. M. Eastern. Press conference will be delayed until december which is why fed fund futures are pricing bin a 70 chance of a hike then rather than this month. You can catch all of the news and complete coverage of the decision and Global Market reaction right here on cnbc this afternoon on earning central. Aliba alibaba, time warner is reporting. After the bell we hear from al qaeda. The parade keeps going on. Microsoft says russia linked hackers are exploiting a windows flaw and behind some recent cyber attacks. The group known as fancy bear has been linked to the russian government fancy pants. Cozy bear and theres fancy bear. They give them bear names because of the type of entry they use to get in. Really. Because russia is a giant bear. Thats been used to describe russia. Fuzzy bear. Thats nice. Care bear. Right in the middle of a sentence. The group widely known as fancy bear has been linked to the russian government and previous u. S. Political hacks. The bug was revealed by google and caused friction between the two tech giants. Google gave microsoft ten days to fix the flaw. But failed to react. Microsoft said they will release a fix on november 8th. Getting a hair cut . I am. Did you know that . No. I just assumed. Honest to god i am. 8th of november is an important day for you. The gray is kind of getting frizzy. Russian president putin is trying to push microsoft and its products out of russia. Planning to replace Foreign Software with domestic alternatives and has already blocked linked in. Microsoft is pretty good. Whats the russian version of like a windows operating system . You can do a saturday night live on this. They dont seem quite as good. Like a russian car isnt quite a tesla. Is it . Not yet. You saw some russian airplanes. Feel like flying around on russian airplanes. Theres new military planes. I was on your favorite website the drudge report. Theres these new what prompted to you switch off the your screen saver is the huffington post. What prompted you to switch off from that. Was a flight from mother jones . Valeant says its in talks with thirdparty to sell its salix stomach drug business. Reports surfaced that japans takata pharmaceuticals is interested. The deal could raise as much as 10 billion. Shares jumped 30 when the news reported but since mode rated. You all cleaned up ed. The president ial election today the fed meeting and this weeks job data all potentially big market movers. Joining us now is ed keenan. And tony roth. So ed has the advantage there. But tony, you got a philosophy degree like from brown. You got some ph. D. In french or something, and then you went to harvard for law school and you ended up a money manager. Underperformed. How did that work. How did you finally decide ill you got all that great education. You could be suing people in french about philosophy but youre not. I had a french girlfriend and that didnt work out. That chapter got pushed to the side. You knew how to speak french but didnt help out. It did until we moved back to states and then she left. I read in your notes uncertainty. Does uncertainty mean possible trump win or we dont know hillary will win by 60 or 70 . What does uncertainty mean for you a possible trump win. You have to look at the polls. The polls are averages over the prior seven days approximately. You look at 538 which you alluded to earlier. Which is not a poll. That combines all the polls. Theres a lag. A significant lag. 69 this morning. You look at 69. You know the momentum is moving quickly towards trump. It will stop at some point. Might stop when hillary wins. It will stop at some point. Youre looking at pretty much a coin toss at this point. The market have not priced that in. Markets are starting to price that in. So that was my point. A lot of people like to say markets really going crash if trump gets in but if the market is down since august wow the market is down. Does that mean, you know, they are afraid to connect it. They are afraid to say what they are worried about might actually happen . Petrified at this point. Thats why you were there was a piece the same day as your piece, and he looked at all the polls and the movement and the peso and concluded markets are afraid of the possibility of a trump administration. But on the other hand, i think to put this all in context were only a few percent from the all time high. Shifted his 2100 up to 2250. You jinxed him. We knew we were going 2100. Is there anyone certainty about the fed . I think were certain about fed. Nothing in november, a quarter in december. I dont think it matters now in the short term. Were focused are they going to use the language this month. I dont think it matters. The fed will keep its optionality. What matters who wins this election. If trump win, probably have 10 down side on text markets. Significant down side on the currency markets. Were at the tip of the iceberg. You think that stays that way. Is that a knee jerk, early sell ask questions later but then as people ask questions over the next month or two you get a, not necessarily a quick snap back but something that looks like that. You get significant anxiety until inauguration and through the inauguration. Whats going to happen . Heres whats going to happen. We have a country we can put you in the white house or joe in the white house and he would attract some fine talent around him. We got to see what team trump assembles. We would govern differently. There would be less government. Andrew would be in your cabinet . My kitchen cabinet. What would matter is who does trump bring around him. Does he tone down his rhetoric . Will he be the temperament he manifested during the campaign or temperament were more accustomed to as a governor. Have a honeymoon period and a lot of Political Capital . I think clearly it does. Either way it will be rocky sailing. A lot more uncertainty with trump. I agree with that. Actually theres some uncertainty but fundamentals are getting better. If you step back and look back at the fundamentals, earning season was quite good. We were up 1 yearonyear for earnings and revenue revenue was 2. 5 including a big drop in energy. Dollar strong now. Its strengthened modestly but not that much. We did research yesterday where we suggested that a fed hike might help the stock market. If you look at the historically relationship of Interest Rates and market valuations very low rates usually or associated with worse valuations and little bit higher rates may help peoples confidence in future growth. Do you take risk off for the next few months we pull back in july. Late july we took risk off the table. So i raised a little cash yesterday. Were playing it pretty cautiously. If we get a clinton outcome for sure it seems to us were at a pretty important inflection points in monetary policy. And to eds point you look at the relationship Interest Rates and savings, interest rapists goi rates go down. So we get a little bit more return on investments, saving rates go down. You know your choice. Can have kudlow as treasury. Krugman as chief of staff. Ill give you my list. Michael moore will be epa. Hes so wrong on who will be on the list. Ive given you my picks. You want some of my supreme court. Ill give you 11 of those too. We have whole commercial break to discuss. Thanks guys. Coming up just six days left until americans go to the polls and election day has been cloud by investigations into Hillary Clintons emails and the timing of the fbi disclosure. The latest from the campaign trail. Thats up next. Surprise we heard you got a job as a developer its official, i work for ge what . Wow. Yeah okay. Guys, ill be writing a new language for machines so planes, trains, even hospitals can work better. Oh sorry, i was trying to put it away. Got it on the cake. So youre going to work on a train . Not on a train. On trains youre not gonna develop stuff anymore . No i am. Do you know what ge is . Obamacare Health Care Exchange is open for you nor enrollment. The process began yesterday. The health and Human ServicesDepartment Reports the site handled 50 more applications compared to the first day of enrollment last year. This comes despite an increase in premiums as a benchmark. A typical low cost plan will cost 25 more in 2017. Just six more days to go until americans make it to the polls and theres plenty of work to do on the campaign trail as the candidates prepare to fight until the bitter end. John hard swood on set with us and he has more on where things stand. Good morning, andrew. Look this is a very close race. The polls have tightened but its still a big electoral challenge for donald trump and i just want to sketch that out for you. Remember we start with donald trump assuming the 206 electoral votes that mitt romney won in 2012. He has to build on that. Hes got four very strong prospects of taking away blue states and putting them in the red column. Were talking about florida, ohio, iowa and nevada. He leads in all of them except nevada and Hillary Clinton essentially is tied with him there. However, even if he gets all of those states he only gets to 265 electoral votes. Hes got another set of targets that key go after, problem is he is trailing outside the margin of error in all those states, places like michigan, wisconsin, virginia, colorado. All these are states that barack obama won in 2012. In addition to that youve got two prospects arizona and North Carolina for Hillary Clinton to take states out of the red column and put them in the blue and that makes Donald Trumps hill even steeper. Her best prospect is North Carolina where shes had a lead although the lead is down. In arizona she trails but very close to donald trump. So this is why the math is very difficult, guys, for donald trump to work even as the National Polls draw closer. However if he goes a point where hes wane point or two, a point and a half of Hillary Clinton in the popular vote, that electoral calculus will change because states are uniform enough that once the popular vote gets vvery close then a whole lot of states how is it possible that, for example, the nbc wall street journal poll has trump up now hillary up plus six. Well its an old poll. Old poll. Yes. We were up six the last time we did it. Some of the state polls are closer. Some are. Even pennsylvania. Will you serve in my administration as my press secretary. Whats your agenda . I got to see if i can live with your agenda. Michael moore epa. Leo is epa. I dont know what i was thinking. Who is your treasury. Kudlow is treasury secretary. And you press secretary. What i do get . I have to think. What i do get . Would you accept the vice presidency that way we can unite the country. You couldnt handle four years. Going back to the question you asked you were talking about our survey monkey poll which came out on monday afternoon. The difference between these polls is largely not entirely but largely on the composition of the electorate and who will turn out. For example in the abc the Washington Post poll yesterday it showed donald trump plus one for the First Time Since may. A week ago ten days ago it showed Hillary Clinton up 12. Whats changed . Gary langer the pollster says its not preferences its the relative enthusiasm for two sides and once you factor in the enthusiasm thats how theycle can you late who will turn out the vote. If Hillary Clintons voters are feeling more down cast they will answer poll questions in a way that causes people to say that person is not likely to vote. Since you know more about these polls and how they are taken, do you believe the polls . Yes. Do you . You have to account for different methodologies. Theres a lot of bad polls out there. There are very smarlt pollsters who know what they are doing including the people at the nbc wall street journal poll. Well have our last poll this weekend. I trust them because ive worked for them for the last 25 years. I trust them more than any other poll. However, the best way to approach it is to average all the polls. What do the candidates do themselves different from the National Polls . Thats a key point as well. Trump was in wisconsin yesterday which wasnt even a state we were just talking about. Trump has not bean big believer in polls. And tony febrezio is in dispute over payment that he says hes owed. The key difference in 2012 and why the Obama Campaign polls were more accurate than the public polls, stateoftheart in public polls has been to do ran tom digit dial. You have a computer and if you do that thats how you do get a random sample. The campaigns do it later. They have voerjt strater regist. They have vote history. They have a database. They have a greater amount of information that they bring to bear to figuring out who is going to vote based on past performance and what they think will happen and how they are going to vote. Thats why when we got towards election day last year our poll the nbc wall street journal poll had barack obama up i think a point or two over mitt romney. He ended up outperforming that and the campaign told us they were going to outperform that and they were proven right. Now everyones models can be off the next time, past performance is no guarantee of future results, so well see what happens. But Hillary Clinton has the same pollster. Im fascinated. Youve never been called bay pollster. Ive never been called. They know who youre voting for. They dont need to call you. Have you been poll snoed . No. How far been polled. I dont have a home number. Cell phones yes, i have been polled. Like many people this another problem with the polls. Its complicated. But fewer and fewer people will answer a phone call from pollsters and sit there for ten minutes and do the survey. If thats the case, it makes polls more expensive because you got to keep calling people and you have to persist with the same number, the same people who initially dont respond. If you dont call them back then you lose the randomness of your survey. This is why cheap polls are easy, and good polls are expensive. John harwood, breaking it down. That was an education for me and i want to thank you for that. Im still trying to figure out your cabinet. In my cabinet well have four or five few perm. Like rick perry ill shut down some. Ill say again energy, energy, energy. I can be nba commissioner . You dont want press secretary. I want nba commissioner. Tell me what you want. Ambassador to italy. Not bad. Not bad. For the pasta. Will you stay there . Happily. You got to buy wine for the parties. Today, were seeing new technologies make healthcare more personal with patientcentric, digital innovations; from selfmonitoring devices that can interpret personal data and enable targeted care, to Cloud Platforms that invite providers to collaborate with the patients they serve. Thats why over 90 of the top 25 Global Pharmaceutical Companies are turning to cognizant. 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