Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20130104 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street January 4, 2013

Have a great weekend. Squawk on the street begins right now. Good friday morning. Welcome to squawk on the street. Were live from the new york stock exchange. Im melissa lee, along with jim cramer and scott wapner. Lets take a look at how were setting up on the u. S. Futures. Its all about the jobs reports for the month of december, a weaker than expected report. Take a look at this, the markets looking at the s p up by three points, the Dow Jones Industrial average looking at about 1. 5 here. In europe, it was really about the fomc minutes yesterday. It looks like a mixed bag, which is marginal changes across the board. The latest snapshot of the economy, 155,000 nonform jobs added in the month of december, with the Unemployment Rate at 7. 8 below consensus. With warmer than normal temps and impact of sandy being felt, how good of a read is this . Goldman sachs upgrades for citi, conviction buy list, stronger bakes have fewer levers to pull in this tough environment. Retail movers, target, underarmour, and well get cramers take in just a few moments. A weaker than expected jobs report with december nonfarm payrolls coming in below stilts of 155,000. Kelly evans is live at headquarters with a wrapup of the details. A few people getting a sense of what we saw. I think one of the points here is job growth is becoming a little more consistent. We saw payrolls grow about 155,000 in december. In fact, thats almost bang on the average on the whole year. Despite some of the choppiness early in the discovery, theyre gaining traction now. A concern remains about 2013 in particular, what could happen when payroll taxes do increase on that point. It was encouraging to see for the second straight month a growth in average Hourly Earnings as well. Kelly, thank you. Is that good enough to say that the average monthly job creation rate is the same as 2011 in 2012, that thats a reason to be optimistic about this . I think all things considered, its a decent report. You cant be crazy about it. Maybe a transition report. I think theres a lot of things happening in the economy right now thats hard to get a handle on. The last few weeks we did hear, for some people, good with business. Others were bad. This is one of the least important reports that ive seen. I just dont think its that important. But if you, yesterday, at 2 00 in the afternoon, all of a sudden were worried, oh, my god, the fed is going to take the training wheels off, this definitely changes your opinion. If this wasnt good enough to say, Ben Bernankes going to change his policy anytime soon, is it . No, but i thought that yesterday was a bit of a travesty. Overreaction, right . Yeah. Look, the economy comes back . We dont even know how much the gdp is going to be trimmed by what just happened in washington. Or how much will be trimmed by this debt ceiling reduction. Is everybody going to start forming businesses right now . I think possibly more businesses could be formed, but were not all things considered, this was a surprisingly good number. But not good enough to make it so that suddenly there are guys that and lets talk about the feds, who wanted to tighten. Some of them wanted it tightened for two years. What war are they fighting . I dont know. The language, you can understand why when you say several, that implies not a few, but perhaps a majority saying that qe4 before 2014, i agree with you, i think it was a bit of a reaction. Isi came out shortly after the minutes and said do you want to fade any market moves on the notion that the fed is going to take the punch bowl away before the end of 2013. This is the same meeting they added to qe. People are all of a sudden freaked out by the notion that perhaps the punch bowl is gone. The voting membership of the fed is also changing in its makeup, right . Evans and rosengren are two of the more dovish members. Theyre going over to the voting side of the next meeting. If you read some of the commentary this morning, that suggests any move by the fed will be pushed further off as that makeup changes, too. Theres something to be said, as ive seen in multiple cycles, for the economy to come back, and rates go up a little, its not bad that the economy hires people. 5. 5 unemployment before the big downturn. Weve got a lot of comments about banks today. Banks have led every major single recovery in the last 30 years. You get a little curve. I dont want to be too didactic to people at home, but the banks make more money if we have net interest margins. If you were bullish at 159. 59 yesterday, are you bullish today after the employment report . I think the markets up huge in the last few days. Look, the dows half the gain in the last three days than it has in the last year. The fed tightens all over. If all over is down 20 dow points, ill take all over any day of the week. Take a look at where the strength was in job reports. Goldman sachs in its preview note to the jobs report did point out that the seasonal temperatures was above normal. The temperatures were above normal in the month of december. They take a look the at the temperatures and heating degrees and overlay the population dense si. In other words, theyre spending too much time on that stuff. Thats what economists do at Goldman Sachs. Warmest weather. Al gore did well, by the way. I think its important to talk about the one thing on the rise that will help offset the washington drag. Chris christian, the rebuild will be like hurricane andrew. It was a substantial add to the gdp. Again, the National Guard is still keeping track of the roads before you get to normandy beach, before you get to beach haven. The rebuild could be monumental usg, matsco, the fortune brands park that is now housing. This is meaningful. Its so meaningful that it can offset what is not helped from washington, unless they raise taxes again. Then im with Rick Santelli, enough. If we had the boom in construction jobs in the month of december, if we do get this passed and today is the vote, by the way, i believe at 10 55 in congress if we get that through, we could see that mog any fid in the months to come, hiring related to construction related to the rebuilding after sandy. Of we worried after the hesitancy in the leadup so the fiscal cliff will repeat itself for another couple of months as we try to figure out that i mean, another embarrassment, is that what we have to deal with between now and march . I like to take counsel from people who know more than me, which is about 310 million. Honeywell said hes been spoton the whole day. If he was treasury secretary, jack lou, very hard working, david coty, we would Start Talking about the real issues. But coty says yes. If he stopped hiring, now, i know the longer work hours from this number indicate theyre going to have to start hiring. At the same time, i look at robert hef, i look at some of these companies and they say, wow, i dont know how much this Health Care Act is going to change. A lot of people are they going to get sticker shock from health care this year and next year. These are all things that are going to work against the positives and moumt weve gotten. At least we have one issue resolved, and that is the tax implications. We know what the tax policy is going to be like. Well, i think they could change it, theoretically. But we have a framework at this point. Do you think there would be a less of a drag i think if youre serious about spending cuts, serious about military spending cuts, medicare spending cuts, that is long term. And i think thats great. Take a look at what happened with gerhardt, with germany, when they decided to get serious. They had one of the greatest economic expansions in germany. It could happen here. Goldman sachs is making big calls on the banks. The firm upgrading sun trust to buy from neutral. Downgrading both b t and wells fargo to buy. And removing jpmorgan. Now everybody in the world, jim, loves citi. Theyre coming out of the woodwork. After 20 in the past three months. Wells fargo has been the best bank in this country for a very long time. Theyve taken Mortgage Markets from 10 to 30 . Everybody all of a sudden loves citi. That is terrific. It is behind the market. But you know something, these banks trade together. If youre going to get a really huge move in citi, youre going to find the rest of them pull up. Jpmorgan has failed at the 44 level multiple times. I dont like going for second best of breed when you can have best of breed. I think whats interesting about this goldman note, theyre essentially saying dont play best of breed, because they use all the tricks in the book. Theyve gone through cost cutting, everything to fight below the new environment. You want to go for the second best of the world, maybe they have more levers to pull. Sun trust, like sun trust is i mention them to mention sun trust in the same sentence as wells fargo is to mention oragone when youre talking about the redskins. Were talking about a college team versus a pro team. With all due respect, you cant play with the big boys. I think wells fargo, by the way, listen up, goldman, theyve spent a fortune taking over this country. You have no idea what they can do if they ratchet back spending. I like wells, but i will say it is outrageous that one company has 30 of the mortgage market, and the only company you can get a loan from in this city. Wells fargo took over the world. You want to sell wells fargo, you know, maybe you think the buffett is a seller, maybe hes a buyer, good. The idea of not so great and selling the great, that has never worked for me. Its never worked in my career. Do you think the earnings prospects are Getting Better and will continue to improve . That will be better for the banks. Look, i think the banks had a fabulous Fourth Quarter. But the banks are so far behind the market. Its extraordinary how inexpensive they might turn out to be. Jpmorgan put out a phenomenal piece, beginning of the year, their senior strategist hes the best there is. He said if the banks caught up, they could be monster good. Im in that camp. Have you noticed that the tenyear yield in the last few days, since december 28th, its retired by 26 basis points. Huge, huge move. On the bond market idea, what, tempers called it rich on this market, cooperman called it rich. The smart money absolutely agrees with you, jim. But the smart money has been saying i think buy and trade is happening. There was a lead story in the journal, etfs, look, im suspicious of that. Thats that autopilot thing that hasnt worked for years. Those people hate it when you say that. But look, bonds offer very little value. I use lindco and lind energy as an example. Versus some of the Real Estate Investment trusts. Medical and health care. Theres a lot of bond alternatives. You dont have to be stopped. Even a dividend yielder like j j. J j is so undervalued. Stock up 7 to 8 last year . With a stroke of a pen they could get that stock to 80, just by breaking it up. Put together by someone who, frankly, i know is revered, weldon. Theres no reference here for it. What is the tenyear what is the yield on the tenyear have to get to before we decide that the great rotation is in the midst of happening from bonds to stocks . I would have told you when a dividend now . When we thought the tax was going to go to 40 , i would have said, you know, it goes up a half a percent, thats fine. But look, dividends were preserved. We never talk about how big that was, the dividend enormous. Its led to a lot of buying in the last few days. People said, oh, ive got to sell those stocks. Even the worst ones have been doing very well. Secretary of labor joins us live with todays jobs report. Lets take another look at futures as were setting up for this friday open. Tdd 18003452550 you shouldve seen me today. Tdd 18003452550 when the spx crossed above its 50day moving average, tdd 18003452550 i saw the trend. Tdd 18003452550 it looked really strong. Tdd 18003452550 and i jumped right on it. Tdd 18003452550 tdd 18003452550 since ive switched to charles schwab. Tdd 18003452550. Ive been finding opportunities like this tdd 18003452550 a lot more easily. Tdd 18003452550 like today, tdd 18003452550 i was using their streetsmart edge Trading Platform tdd 18003452550 and i saw a Double Bottom form. Tdd 18003452550 i called one of their trading specialists tdd 18003452550 and i bounced a few ideas off of him. Tdd 18003452550 theyre always there for me. 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Theres interesting knowledge about a potential slowdown in canada. I want to call your attention to a deal with gap yesterday. If you go to the athletica website love it. Yes. You will not see the word gap anywhere. This is a company to watch. It is part of gap. And i think they could hurt lulu. At the same time i want to point out that underarmour is more of a technology company. The nhl almost bought a chunk of underarmour. Nhl a very smart organization. Target was supposed to miss badly, they didnt. I want to know how the Dollar Stores are doing versus target, walmart. Theres a lot to sink your teeth in in these calls. If lulu wanted to take a profit, im not against it. What was interesting about lulu, everybody calls it a channel check. You dont know how robust the channel check is. They go onto the website, they see whats on sale. Going into a lululemon store is technically a challenge. Ive been in several stores. I dont consider one channel a check. She wants the remodels. I say at the summit store, guys go in, single guys go in and theyre not looking at the merchandise. Just pointing it out. What are they looking at . A different kind of merchandise . Do they have dark sunglasses on when they go in . The underarmour call. Would you be a buyer of underarmor rather than nike . Or would you go nike . Since december the stocks have been going in different directions. I just think this guy, plank, is so the real deal, and this is a the technology play. The fabrics theyre developing, what theyre doing makes me feel like this is a very forward looking company. I would buy that stock. Lululemon, im a little worried, but its the athletic issue. You go onto the gap website, they push you to athletica. So theres a lot of leverage between the brands. One cart. One shopping cart is key. Shopping cart, how about milk versus kindle. Shopping cart is a bear. Thats true. Wondering what to do with your money on this jobs friday . Dont worry, cramer is here to help you set up for the weekend. His mad dash is next. And later, the chairman and ceo of zip car is here to tell us about a big change in the companys membership policy. Plus well get his take on the deal with avis. Lets look at futures here after the jobs report. Closely watched after the release of the fed minutes. She knows you like no one else. And you wouldnt have it any other way. But your erectile dysfunction you know, that could be a question of blood flow. Cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be Ready Anytime the moments right. You can be more confident in your ability to be ready. And the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. 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Heres whats important for me. Im going to take google versus microsoft, eric schmidt sits down, what do you want. Microsoft will be, how dare you. The evil empire versus a nice federation. And i think that what matter is google has a better mousetrap. All of these guys complain, saying, google sends its stuff to google. Why not . Googles better. This was a very important decision. But heres what ive got to ask you. The last quarter was pat. Do you just overlook that . They overlook anything. Tum vision. Youre looking forward, not back. In the end, i dont think anyone expected things to go really badly. I remember when joe cline, one of the greatest people in law, the smartest guys ever to rise up, when he decided that microsoft had to be put down like a dog, that they might be and has become a dog, google, look out. I think if they get everything right, will go to this past quarter higher. Economy improving, right . Advertising not falling off a cliff. Yep. Maybe getting a little bit better. 70 share. I like it. I like it. How about transocean . This is really important. A lot of people say, look, jim, you keep saying certainty. Certainty matters. You know what, i didnt know how much i dont even like transocean. But you know what, but once you found out that this company was not going to get 5 billion in fines, suddenly people say, oh, hey, hallelujah. When this happened, people thought they would have to pay nothing. But when you get certainty, people know and they want to buy. I dont think that company is that great. How about avon . Somethings goi

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