Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20130712 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street July 12, 2013

We begin with jamie dimon, Jpmorgan Chase ceo sitting down with jim cramer in just a little while. His bank out with earnings that did handily Beat Estimates, results from rival wells fargo, also above expectations. Senator Elizabeth Warren leading a new charge to break up the banks with an updated version of the 1933 glasssteagall act. The Company Warns q2 and full year will likely fall short of expectations. And carl icahn kind of sweetens his offer for dell. Whats it going to mean for that vote next thursday . We will discuss. Big day for us here. As we said, jamie dimon will be here at the nyse. Cramer with an exclusive interview at 10 00 a. M. Eastern time. A lot of things to talk about in the program. Are you ready, skee daddy . Ive got the ceo on my left here, im listening to you guys, ive got Elizabeth Warren on squawk. Heres what i have to say. This has become a Capital Market story. Thats how theyre trying to portray it to put it in english, they have too much cash so theyre not able to deploy it in a way that say a wells fargo is. So theyre trying to make it all up in Investment Banking which they did very well. I think people will be disappointed with that interest marg margin. Theyll be shocked at how much mortgages went down. And then theyll look at the whole panoply and say you know what . Geez, theyre still making a ton of money. 6. 5 billion, a big number well ahead of what had been estimates, at least. And as you point out, banking certainly look strong. Corporate and Investment Bank. We didnt see the weakness we thought we might and fixed income a bit because of concerns about that last month june particularly, or even may we saw jeffries which reported a may ending quarter. It was pretty strong. Yeah, at the performed well in june. Do we think their trevails have made them better with risk . I think the control situation, jamie dimon, ceo, is going to be asked more about controls. Obviously that came up in the journalists call that was earlier. I think what theyre trying to portray this quarter as is when rates go up, theyre going to make a ton of money. And theyre going to make it in banking. I mean, theyre not really talking about make it and swinging the money around. Thats going to make it so like someone like Elizabeth Warren who was fabulous on squawk with the combat is toothless with what this quarter is about. Last quarter up 27 . Yeah, i did look. You look at these numbers and you come back and say, well, wait a second. Big decline, 7 . And this was before rates went to twoyear highs. So what will mortgage originations look like next time . It is the interest margin. I compare that with wells fargo which also reported. And wells fargo has got a tremendous credit story. These are two very different animals. A 7 decline origination in mortgages and then you make it up in reserves. That Interest Income down 1 . You know, it is a quarter that is not apples to apples anymore with some of the other Industries Players in the industry. I think if you try to shoehorn it, youll be saying what the heck is that stock doing up . Why isnt it down a couple bucks . But if you portray it as a company with a great Balance Sheet, maybe too much cash versus what they can invest, and you look at what Interest Rates might be doing and they say that they see that would be a great benefit for them, that interest margin going to be stable, you come back and see jeesh, you know, this is a cheap darn stock. How do you square with what wells and jpmorgan appear to be saying and that is Consumers Want credit in this environment, with what u. P. S. Is saying about the industrial economy . Customers want cheaper freight. Theres too much capacity. The industrial economy is softening. And they think thats going to persist on the back half. U. P. S. Was actually a stunner. I know, its funny, i made a couple calls just to check in and say anybody out there expecting this . I talked to a couple guys. Both say big surprise. And the language. You know, again, this point of the industrial economy wasnt that amazing . I mean, because here you have in the jpmorgan call, youve got a lot of good things about big corporate. Youve got this very small number to the Small Business, 9 billion. Look, jpmorgans been committed to lending to Small Business, so i cant figure that out. Youve got u. P. S. Really saying this economy is not doing that well, but youve in the transports on fire. A lot of people are playing u. P. S. As a way to be able to play the Global Economy rebound. And theyre saying wow, youve got that wrong if youre playing us for that. Also fairly Big Hedge Fund name, surprisingly. Some of the bigger hedge funds in there, just for purposes of sharing that. Because its seen as another internet play as well. Theres sort of parts of their business you can imagine. Biggest economy, amazon. Amazons got good noons and decent gross margins. This is a day first, i have to point out Brian Sullivan said something very important this morning. Look, dont make the snap judgments. These Bank Quarters are really hard. U. P. S. , its a coupleline release. I mean, theres an information overload problem. I only say that because i dont want to were glib. Im glib, okay, because im looking at these lines. Heres jamie dimon talking in this ear. Elizabeth warren talking in that ear. But overall, the consumer the actual lending is still tepid. I think thats a big takeaway. That you could understand why bernanke is saying you know what . Its not the time to end this game. Although weve been doing it for a very long time. And one of the key questions has been, you keep adding to the Balance Sheet of the fed, but the moneys not getting out there, the bankss not putting it out there, or the demands, which is it . One of the reasons i want to talk to jamie dimon, youve got people in washington saying they dont have any cash. The Systemic Risk is not great. And meantime i look at their cash position versus, say, the european banks . I mean, fortress Balance Sheet, this is fort knox. This is not just a regular fortress. I mean, this is where the gold store. Operation grand slam for those of us who recall goldfinger. Goldfinger. We are above our record close. Heres usa today today. Pretty nice analysis from a mom pop kind of paper saying the markets going to have to graduate to a real economy market, one that reflects the economy. And a fabulous piece. And i think what the market is trying to transition to is just exactly what theyre talking about. And then you get u. P. S. , which is like a slap of a, you know, a largemouth bass right in your face. What am i supposed to make of that if im out there today looking at results as we are from wells and jpm feeling fairly good about it, seeing the market right here new highs . And then i get is it a oneoff from u. P. S. . Should i look for fedex and say are they seeing it, too . Fedex went up ten points. Rumors of an activist. I know. That was ridiculous. Wow. 6 . Ridiculous. It was ridiculous. I dont know, you get 9 billion in Small Business loans versus this is jpmorgan versus 294 billion in large corporations. Ive been musing with some of these executives ive had on mad money. Big business is doing fabulously. Isnt it the expense of Small Business . Do you run into the possibility that regulations are too hard for Small Businesses not worth starting it . Do you run into the possibility that a bank is afraid to make a speculative loan, which is what a Small Business loan is . I mean, say i want to buy a building, buy a piece of land with david, okay . In brooklyn where, by the way, 40 of the transactions are priced over the offering, okay . And we want to get a 5 million loan to do this. Well, thats the kind of loan that the Bank Examiners will go nuts about. But thats the kind of loan where wed put 25 people to work instantly. What are they going to do . What is jamie dimon going to do . Who is his master . Right. Thats a great question. I think i know the answer. Its probably youre not going to get your money. No, youre not going to get your money. Or youre going to get it at such a height, youre not going to be able to get it. The commercial rates are so different. Im, like, wait a second. My house . Youre getting me a 3 . I get a 6 for commercial . Ill fail ill fail with that commercial loan they dont want to make the commercial loans. Well, no, maybe the government doesnt want to make the commercial loans. So commercial loans at jpmorgan were up 9 year over year. That number should be more like what . Well, i want to see the Small Business by the way, jpmorgan is so committed to making Small Business loans, i want to see that double, i want to see 9 billion go to 18 billion. In the large scheme of thing, jpmorgans become the banker to large corporations. And this is an Investment Banking quarter that basically says game, set, match, we won. I think its a rather impressive banking quarter. I dont think theres any other way to pull it up. 2. 8 billion, 19 higher than a year ago, net revenue, 9. 9 billion. They had some dva adjustments. When you take them out, it looks even better. And thats why the stock is up. Theyre positioning themselves for when Interest Rates go up. When Interest Rates go up, theyll kill it, okay . But theyre saying theyre not going up. Meantime, wells fargo is killing it right now. They are. Its funny, talking about, of course, these enormous banks that have only gotten larger. Whether its wells or since the crisis or jpmorgan having bought bear stearns, for example, that does raise that question about breaking up the big banks. A Bipartisan Group of senators proposing legislation to bring back a version of the 19 positives glasssteagall act which, of course, went by the wayside in the 90s. Senator Elizabeth Warren of massachusetts, the bills main sponsor, appeared on squawk box a half hour ago. The central premise behind a 21st century glasssteagall is to say if you want to get out there and take risks, go and do it. But what you cant do is you cant get access to fdicinsured deposits when you do. That by itself, a little bit, helps bring down the size of some of the financial institutions, and it says at least one portion of our Banking Sector stays safer. All right. Yeah. Well, why did glasssteagall start . They want to defuse the excessive concentration of financial power. And they wanted to prevent unsophisticated investors. I remember your documentary, how many risky investments did they get . I also know that during this period of tremendous crisis as joe pointed out when he challenged the senator, the professor, i think he was giving a little professor stuff, that these banks saved the system. And it wasnt these banks that put things at risk. As kernen made clear. Bank of america i mean, of course, now, they all potentially would have gone down, were it not for t. A. R. P. Now, thats an argument you can have with jamie, for example, that ive had and hell say number of the deposits were coming in at the height of the crisis. I mean, we were it was bad. Yes. Over. Right. It was Systemic Risk. Some would argue it should have been over. We should have started again. We would have gotten back and had a much sounder financial system. The libertarians were combined with the socialists to be able to make it so we had a swedish government banking solution which i think would be a disaster. Elizabeth warren wants to go back to the days when small is beautiful. And i dont know whether small cuts it in the Global Economy. And should jpmorgan, because they took advantage of the fact that the government wanted them to buy banks, should they now say hey, thanks a lot . We understand weve got to give it back now that we spent a huge amount of capital and really lost a lot of money . The anti to do what they did was huge. Now, wells fargo, i mean, geez, look at this. The net chargeoffs, 1. 2 billion, down 1 billion, but nonperforming assets down 21 billion . Thats incredible. That was wachovia and goldman. They have managed to redo that Balance Sheet in record time. They did have some very nice Tax Advantages that came along with that wachovia deal. True. But stumps, ceo, going back and forth with him, too. Good lenders. But that does dovetail with what weve seen with credit card delinquencies. Credit cards were unbelievable for jpmorgan. By the way, plus 10 . You know, if you step back for a second, youve got to say to yourself, i cannot believe how well these banks are doing. But theres always nitpickers. And the nitpickers tend to rule. And so what are the questions on, well, litigation expense, one of the questions. So the journalists go, what are the questions on this goal . Wait a second. If rates really go up, is it really going to work for you . I dont know. It kind of has to. It kind of has to. They need a little yield curve. Yeah. Were going to learn a lot more in just about 45 minutes when you and jamie sit down here. Or stand. Im not sure where were going to have you. Im not either. I apologize to our viewers in advance that im going to have to do some serious this is a crunchtime day because jpmorgan, jamie dimons coming here ten seconds after hes done talking. On their analyst call, hes coming down either by car or subway, whatever way he can get here most quickly. Is he a subway kind of guy . Kind of. I think he would be. What happens if someone challenges him on a subway . Hed give it right back. Hed give the guy a beatdown. Hell go down there and give him the business. Speaking of all that, weve got more news. Carl icahn in his bid to acquire dell. More on his latest offer straight ahead. After Jpmorgan Chase finishes its earnings Conference Call, jamie dimon will appear on this program. Cramers live and exclusive interview with one of the most powerful men in business is coming up. Futures, relatively steady. Action going into a friday session. Opening bell is in about 15 minutes. Clients are always learning more to make their money do more. ann to help me plan my next move, i take scottrades free, inbranch seminars. Plus, their live webinars. I use daily market commentary to improve my strategy. And my local scottrade Office Guides my learning every step of the way. Because they know i dont trade like everybody. I trade like me. Im with scottrade. announcer scottrade. Ranked highest in Customer Loyalty for brokerage and investment companies. Ever ybody has different ideas, goals, appetite for risk. You cant say one size fits all. It doesnt. Thats crazy. Were all totally different. Ishares core. Etf Building Blocks for your personalized portfolio. Find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. Ishares by blackrock. Call 1800ishares for a prospectus, which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Read and consider it carefully before investing. Risk includes possible loss of principal. Carl icahn is keeping the pressure on in the battle for dell. Remember the shareholder vote is only six days away. Its next thursday, july 18th. This morning icahn is improving his offer. Youve got to actually say that that is the case. He gave a hint of it yesterday. And this morning, a few moments ago. Comes out with a somewhat complex addition to his offer. But i can break it down for you fairly simply. Its probably worth, some would say, maybe its worth 75 cents a share. Could be at least. If you tender into his 14 a share tender, remember, 1. 1 billion shares is what hes looking for at 14. For every four shares you tender, you get one warrant that has a sevenyear term that can be converted to stock at 20 a share, meaning if dell shares were to rise above that during that sevenyear period, you would be in the money. Now, under options theory, you know, you assume 30 vol. Right. In their own stock option plan, they assume 37. Lets assume 30 vol. Its worth 3. 54 divided by 4, 75, 80 cents, but hey, thats something. It is something. And it is interesting as well because if you assume michael dell lets say the vote goes down. By the way, it is extraordinarily close from what im hearing now. Even with iss and all the other proxy advisory firms, its going to be a really close vote. Remember, they need 50. 1 in favor not including michael dell. If you dont vote, that hurts them. That hurts the dell side, right . So they need affirmative votes. If, in fact, it gets voted down, then you get the icahn recap plan, and michael dell still conceivably controls the company. This could dilute the company if it were to rise above 20. I know its complicated, but its icahn. He just keeps coming whether its appraisal rights or the warrant, he isingi desperately to see what he can do. Maybe he wants the vote to go down and do his recap plan. I dont know. The government did well with the warrants and t. A. R. P. Yes. The warrants with drexel. Warrants with drexel. Yeah. You know, so again, for every four shares you tender under the recap plan that carl already has in place, you will get a warrant seven years in term. And if, in fact, the stock is above 20, that warrant will have real value under options pricing strategy. You could argue its worth 75, 80 cents. Yesterday in this letter calling for appraisal, he tries to tell shareholders ts a nobrainer. Is that a virtuous argument . I dont know. I mean, that letter about 1968 . Now he made his money in convertib

© 2025 Vimarsana