96 since halloween. Our road map begins with the markets. We could be in store for a foursession losing streak. That stronger than expected adp number adding to worries the fed might taper sooner rather than later. And a holiday treat as november sales give sales a lift. And a double whammy for financials. Citi with a downgrade and we could see a tougher than expected volcker rule. And ron burgandy means green for dodge. Sales fueled for the durango. News on concerns that the fed might scale back their Bond Buying Program when they meet later this month. Well get ism services and new home sales in about an hour from now. Its been said maybe december tapers right around the corner, jim, if numbers like this keep up. I think its tough for yellen to come in, we start tapering and we get some big frackus in january. We forget the two parties hate each other. They tend not to accomplish anything. Worst congress in history if you care about output. Shes going to be reluctant do that. People are starting to talk about doing the over 250,000 jobs on friday and that means Interest Rates go to 3 and that means ultimately you can buy the banks. Thats the one group that does better at high rates. Net interest margin. If we get above 250, that would be a good thing. Youre going good news good news . Im going with the jobs are good but not necessarily good for the stock market. Right. Thats why i think 17 of the market will be good, another 83 that gets hit. I think thats what this downturn is about. Adp, the estimate was 170 and they severely underestimated the october. So this is the strongest adp number in a year. Im sure some people say it was just recovery. The retail world is very split. The auto world is not split. Its very strong. Yesterday the autos were the tale of the tale. The stocks were all down because what you have said, david, we have too much employment. Youve seen the last good number. That was an action that typically said peak in earnings cycle. I dont agree with that but the stocks are flagging 3 rate and someone is going to say the incentives are going to cost more. Thats such a convoluted way. Gm has ban little weak lately, also because there was a pricing period on big convertible there and that means people short the stock to set up that hedge. It was not artificial but may have been weighed down on that. It went up on the news that the federal government is almost done selling. I didnt know a hedge fund that didnt know that already. That was a classic moment to short. At least we came out and said it. So were going to Start Talking taper again and again and again. There will be Many Companies whose earnings are much better than we think if this is true. But we dont get earnings season until alcoa and that gulf between now and lets say the nfc championship, well try to put it in a nice light is so far from here that were going to have to you mean eagles howd you know . Broncos, come on. Win out, win out zip have to tell you its too far and thats the big issue for me, which is the earnings are going to be pretty good i think but theyre so far away. In the interim we do 3 , maybe people Start Talking about the fed impotent here, all that kind of talk, which by the way, the Real Estate Investment trust have been signaling this. Theyre like hammered relentlessly. They never really got off the map from when we first started hearing. Finally we got a year where shorting the tenyear worked. After years of saying this will be the year, that finally worked. I told you so. Were 176 . Were up over a hundred basis points. Look, the numbers for mortgages are bad. A lot of people think thats bad for banks. Thats a risk business thats not as great as the norisk business of paying you 0. 8 on a fiveyear cd. Cd rates still still not going up if you want to examine what the banks are doing its like the prime rate. It always moves faster in one direct. Mortgage apps, fifth straight week down, refi rates, the lowest in september. This is facetious. The penalties for sure for European Bank regulators, not as high as the penalties per sure by the u. S. But theres another check there is and its adding up there. Were going to talk financials given the volcker rule. Jcpenney, the shares did appear they would be up this morning. I want to take another look at that. The Department Store chain says sales jump 10 , that was the second Straight Year for jcpenney. You got shares of express done on Third Quarter earnings, which missed expectations, as well as Current Quarter guidance, which is also below the earnings that analysts have. The reason i mention jcpenney there, its not up at all. In fact, it is down, which i had noticed. Lets not forget the comps theyre coming off of. Ron johnson set the bar so incredibly low that if you cant beat it, youre done. By selling something you beat last years. Whats more important than penney is Michael Weiss is the companys chairman and ceo at express. Im sure some we deal with will criticize me on this. Hes got a look for people entering in their 20s the workforce, he has the right looks. This is not teenage. This is another demo thats not spending. Wow. There is a stock thats going to be down sharply this morning and it goes back to the same theme weve been talking about for three or four months, and that is that apparel is not selling as much as people buying mobile stuff. And maybe they go into the trunk. Mr. Jaffrey on squawk on monday blew the numbers out buts that is the lower to midrate jump. And they made an acquisition. Ive fancied myself as a bit of a retail enthusiast. We didnt know that. Thats shocking. You a retail enthusiast . You got a nice hair cut. Hows that . Thank you. You want to go fight in the schoolyard after this . What . I used to get beat up all the time until i realized it was okay to hit back. Was it carl icahn . My father said, listen, stop getting beat up already. Boy, did i ever go the other way. I would not want to see that. The first time i got the beatdown it was extraordinary because his mother called my mother. My mother said will you give me a break . Hes been beat up every year. Its his time, its his time. We got a raw scores downgrade today. Yet that again is a consistent player. Consistent. I fancy vinces apparel last night on mad money. I am so not a vince wearer, by the way. My tailor is named vince. But that stuff is selling. Two months in, they do not believe yet. I think what happens with penney is what does survival mean to the pricetoearnings multiple . If theyre going to make it, maybe some other guys are doing better. Im throwing my hands up with this group. William sonoma. Anthropology good, urban bad. Even within months. Gap good, gap bad. Who can figure this stuff out . The only group thats been consistent, cvs, walgreens and rite aid. Drugstores. Citi removed from the buy list and a tougher than expected volcker rule next wednesday. Mike mayo calling it the new era of big brother banking. Oh, please. When i read that story i said tougher than expected by who . Thats why Morgan Stanley has moved away so aggressively from fixed income. If we get tim masset over at the ftc, that would be something, not this. This is something we all talk about. No that articles wrong. The fact that hedging activities which theyve argued for on a larger context which would allow them to still make oneway bets, let not forget the whale, for example, the cia of jpmorgan, when we found out about it, never making these enormous oneway bets when it was supposed to simply be hedging, that is what theyre trying to stamp out here. Will not hurt the flexibility of the banks . No, because no one likes those banks. Those are all the shorts. Anybody doing that stuff is not what we want. We want stable earnings from other streams. Anybody still doing this volker stuff is like, geez, im going to take you down to the what do you make of the argument that our competitiveness around the globe will be hurt as a result of this . Ive heard that, too. Is everyone going to start going to the japanese will come back. I want to go right into france, which is being downgraded continually. Wire my money over to anglo ireland, the bank of ireland, rbs there are some big global behemoth banks. Do you like the citibank downgrade . No. 20 up side since they named the conviction model. Morgan stanley, they downgraded sun trust today . Theyre all the same, people theyre all yield curve. What do we have to do to teach these people . If you really are getting regulators in terms of not allowing to you take any risk, what are you doing there . When you get to the point where theyre telling you who you can make a highly leveraged transaction loan to or what the lef ramg ratios you should be looking at if youre considering those, that is bizarre. When we get to the point where these banks almost ruined our society and broke our country down the answer is to make sure theyre not too big to fail and let them take the risk and their shareholders and creditors will take the risk. I think if youre a bank and europe still doing this stuff, im shorting you against bb and t, im shorting you against key. Do you think that key does any of this stuff . Do you know what key does . They lend. They give you certificate of deposits that you i like that they have customers and countries all over the place. Citi i actually like. Im just saying that volcker tougher than expected. I mean, talk to the ceos. They all saw it coming. It wasnt tougher than expected for any of them but these reporters dont or the reporters are so hated by the ceos they wont speak to them. And the analyst, too. When we come back being ron burgundy teaming up with dodge and its working. The rear seats fold down perfectly flat. And you know what thats for. Of course, im talking about sex. That outrageous ad campaign pushing Dodge Durango sales a lot higher. And later on, the ceo of Harley Davidson looking to rev up sales this morning. Take one more look at futures. Another morning of red arrows. A lot more squawk on the street from post 9 in a moment. [ driver ] today, my ambulance knew all about a bike accident, just by talking to a helmet. It grabbed the patients record before we even picked him up. It found out the doctor we needed was at st. Annes. Wiggle your toes. [ driver ] and it got his okay on treatment from miles away. It even pulled strings with the stoplights. My ambulance talks with smoke alarms and pilots and stadiums. But, of course, its a good listener too. [ female announcer ] today cisco is connecting the internet of everything. So everything works like never before. All right, america. Say hello to the new Dodge Durango. This thing is going downhill fast. Its definitely odge. You cant get enough of it. Call it the ron burgundy effect. Its spiked a surge. Chrysler dreams up this ron burgundy campaign and all of a sudden the durango is the vehicle to have. Nothing else changed really other than this outstanding campaign. We have stores that are up as much as 50 . Were up something look 35 on the durango. 35 on the durango. Isnt that incredible . Mad men didnt do as well when they had the big tobacco campaign. Thats amazing. This company is coming public. This is when they should issue a gazillion shares, by the way. Have you been dvring the commercials . Yes, will ferrell is one of the people i would do that for. Have you met him . He was in our studios i think he kissed sue herrera. I ran out to see him and i missed him. They gave him Creative Control of this whole campaign. There has been discussion about incentives especially late into the month, particularly gm and ford to have to keep up a little bit to keep the stocks going. I still believe the all the owe market is genuinely strong. The strongest markets i find are the auto markets and sports peril markets. Those are the two doing well that i find in retail that i know are consistent. Underarmour never cuts price. Nike lulu. I worry about lulu. I struggle to find confidence brands that come on and say youre fine to by x. Home depot you said. Yeah, but lowes was bad inconsistent. Lowes had been catching up to home depot. Home depot then pulled ahead of lowe lo lowes. Sprouts did that market. A nice outing. When we come back, get into the green with cramer as mad dash is on deck as we approach the opening bell. One more look at futures on a wednesday morning and we will get ism services at the top of the hour. Back in a minute. Gpipes and drus playing over ] [ music transitions to rock ] make it happen with the allnew fidelity active trader pro. Its one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Get 200 free trades when you open an account. If i can impart one lesson to a new business owner, it would be one thing ive learned is my philosophy is real simple American Express open forum is an online community, that helps our members connect and share ideas to make Smart Business decisions. If you mess up, fess up. Be your partners best partner. We built it for our members, but its open for everyone. Theres not one way to do something. No details too small. American express open forum. This is what membership is. This is what membership does. In a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your Business Inside and out today. At cognizant, we help forwardlooking Companies Run better and run different to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. So if youre ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say lets get to work. Because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. We got six minutes opening bell, its mad dash, middle of the week, hump day. Lets talk at t. This is a worrisome downgrade. Why . Jpmorgan. First of all, the stock is one of the five stocks in the dow that is not up double digits. Its already been a lagger. Second, its got a big yield so people will be saying i can hide in this. But theyre talking about wireless competition, maybe a wideeyed acquisition in europe, david. Is that the talk of the town . Theres been no secret randall stevenson, the chairman and ceo of the company has tried to get his Shareholder Base thinking about will they or could they do something in europe. Vodafone is the name we hear most often, vodafone will be willing to sit down once they conclude the Verizon Wireless transaction. Well see if we get anything there in terms of at t vodafone. Would not be a surprise. But the other concern is erosion and lack of growth in wireless in terms of share and what we talked about many times, which is increased competition. Sprint mobile. Sprint is going to spend a lot of money next year and tmo, as you say boy, are they good. Remember we talked about ad campaigns. The ceo there is an ad campaign for tmo. They just have a different feel about them. By the way, there may not be consolidation. The ftcs chair seemed to indicate he would not look favorably on four to three. I dont want to be in this stock. I would be in verizon if hi to if i had to be in one. Another worrisome downgrade, evercore downgrades ebay. A lot of people have been rumoring thinking something is wrong with ebay. Thats why the stock went down here. Right here maximum pain. Guy waits for a bounce and they he takes it off . Does he know something, david. Thats what everybodys buzzing about. Does the evercore guy know about some kind of weakness . Everyone says this guy has a good call on ebay. All right. We got a lot more to come here on squawk on the street. Stay tuned for the opening bell. [ male announcer ] once, there was a man who found a magic seashell. It told him what was happening on the Trading Floor in real time. The shell brought him great fame. But then, one day, he noticed that everybody could have a magic seashell. [ indistinct talking ] [ male announcer ] right there in their Trading Platform. [ indistinct talking continues ] [ male announcer ] so the magic shell went back to being a. Shell. Get live squawks right in your Trading Platform with think or swim from td ameritrade. Youre watching cnbc squawk on the street. A busy morning. We got hot econ data. Adp coming in with a nice beat, 215,000, estimate was 170. That is the strongest adp number since last november and portends some good things for the jobs numbers coming on friday. We will get ism services in about half an hour. Heres a look at the s p at the top of your screen. Here is the big board, oil and gas Company Antero Resources celebrating its recent ipo and over at the nasdaq, the alvin ailey Dance Theater celebrating their new performance season. You were talking about the ebay downgrade even during the break. David was so right. Now all downgrades are created equal. Ever knows evercore does quality work. This reads like a quintessential be careful. Two weeks ago they were not talking about earnings, they were talking about this is too intelligent of a downgrade to stay in it if i owned ebay. For the last 20 years ive given a lot of hard times to analysts, for good reason. There was no wall between banking and research and it was a free for all but even now there are many analysts who are not particularly good, who are young or sometimes you Pay Attention about what they say not about a price target about a buy or sell or simply the information but there are actually some who can do a good job. And this guy this downgrade worries me. I would not own the stock. Dow is down 40. This will be four days down. Again, since last september is the last time we had a stretch that was five days down on the d dow. Its funny, we walked into december saying its the best time of the year, why would you want to pay the tax year . Theres a lot of people positioning themselves for a big number on friday in the nonfarm payroll. They say why not teak profits. Alternatively theres a vacuum of information and people say i got a great year. Im concerned only that when you get to 3 there will be another wave of selling and that may be when you buy. That wave of selling. Not this wave. Do a little picking. Always good to pick. We did come into this week giving all the reasons why there were very few reasons to sell. And that was bad. I fell into that complacency. By the way, there is one place where we saw i want to point