Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20131206 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street December 6, 2013

Added last month, forecasts calling for about a gain of 180,000. The Unemployment Rate down 0. 3 to 7 , the lowest level in exactly five years. The question is whether or not the fed will scale back its Bond Purchasing Program when the central bank meets later this month. Jim, whether it was u6, the workers, the wages, theres not a lot to quibble with in this one. I was most concerned about an even bigger number. This is kind of good. It wasnt so great that the rates had to skyrocket. So its not a december taper number in your view. We just had plosser on saying dont make too much of one month. Thats right. There were three articles on how we got a big gdp number and they all said the same thing, which is its not going to last. That plus the fact that this was not 250,000 jobs i think makes it so that people want to say yellen will take some time, shell make a determination. If Interest Rates creep up a little higher from here, its not so bad. It is cinderella. Its nice to have a cinderella number from time to time. So the pain threshold in your mind is still around 3, maybe higher than 3 . You know we talk about these algorithms and programs, i think there are funds that when it gets to 3 they sell. Oh, people at home would think how could they be so machinelike. Absolute. But it does work like that. Ive seen it happen in real life. In terms of the brolder macro internals here, u6, 13. 2 from 13. 8. Still a high number in terms of number of unemployed. We still need the manufacturing numbers. Who is difficult to be employed . You saw all these jobs go overseas. When you see manufacturing come back if you take a look at some of these Key Industries we had, we used to be a huge maker of apparel. We dont do that anymore. Those people lost their jobs and they werent qualified to go to work at goldman sachs. Those were people who can, like, if they didnt get to college, they got good jobs, high wages, i like it. 20 to 24yearolds, 11. 6 down from 12. 5. Isnt that great . I think thats terrific. Im sure there are some people who say benefits got cut back. More people had to find work. There are people who are finding jobs and i think thats terrific. Ive really been studying all morning. For those who have been weighing whether to add to the market, subtract from the market, get in at all incrementally based around this number, whats the takeaway . You know how i dont like these up numbers. Weve had a swoon almost every afternoon between the 11 a. M. And 2. I watch the s p. I like to chart it by hand. And i know that it worth it to wait for that. Maybe it doesnt happen but its been worth it to wait for that lunch swoon. That would be when i think you might want to do it if theres people over the weekend and they worry so they sell some. This was a number that said those five days we just had selloff, maybe only three of them should have been sold and the last two shouldnt have gone down. Interesting. December has been not good so far. A lot of those gains historically come in the latter part of the month. You said over and over again you were talking about how the months do, november and december. And you look at me and say its certainly not good yet. How does it get good . After an event that is very worry assume. Now you look. The talk is positive about a budget deal. Washington off the front page for a little while so then we look at earnings and some away from retail are quite good. Lets get to that. Real quickly if you did guess the jobs number, our nail the numbers contest. We asked to you tweet the payroll and the winner will win the bit of cnbc nostalgia, a piece of our old set that cramer and everybody signed yesterday. Well announce the winner later in our program. We had some guesses, jim, even just eyeballing it that were right on the money. I was mostly concerned about really high. If you take the 3. 5 out of the equation, everything thats got great equation is bad. People are like maybe i shouldnt go buy a house. Anything thats gradual the market it calls handle. We just cant handle high velocity changes. Need time to digest. Sears has filed with the s. E. C. To spin off its lands end business. Sears has been selling and spinning off assets in the past few months and weeks. Eddie lampert people love to gloat at eddies not lack of success at sears. Diwork with him at goldman. Havent soon him lately but im disclosing that. Youre talking about almost 70 of the float being controlled. Thats within of the reasons why people dont think it falls as much as it should. Youve got willing buyers. Is there Intrinsic Value to sears . I think that these kinds of moves are the kinds of moves that say, listen, we really dont have anything special but what we do have were going to highlight and take out. And the last two spinoffs of sears have not done well. No. Would you want wouldnt you be a little bit leary of taking shares of a spinoff . Lets say that j. Crew comes public and lands end comes public, i go long j. Crew and short lands end. And jcpenney said it received a letter of inquiry in october. The letter asks for information about liquidity, cash, debt, equity financing. And it got hit by kyle bass saying he got out of the financing. Davids been right about a lot of people getting into this this evening not knowing retail. This is i think a reaction to the fact that on day one ceo says Michael Ullman says everythings fine and day two they do a surprise secondary. I hope ceos understand that when you Say Something really positive and then you issue stock, that doesnt sit well with the regulators. They dont like that. You say you dont need to issue stock and then you issue stock, no. Theyre going to grill you. Remember, the s. E. C. Is civil, im sure theyll come done. I think theyre really trying to make an example of doesnt do that. Dont say things are fine day one and day two raise stocks and say things arent fine. Other names, comps out of gap, a little better than expected, banana, navy and gap making up for it. Jeffreys been the big bull there and they decide this is really about as good as its going to get. That concerns me when someone is a big bull goes buy to hold. Dont want to see that. Big lots misses by 8 cents. You have to buy five below. That was very conservative, they didnt have a good thursday friday. That stock is done 4 5rkwn 4, 5 it. Shares of dow component intel on the rise, citi pointing to increasing evidence of stabilization in corporate demand for pcs. We keep coming back to what meg whitman told us. Exactly right, carl. Thats what this is about. Someone the other day said do we buy intel, its a 4 yield. Ive been waiting for pcs to stabilize so intel could travel from say 24 to 26, microsoft has traveled all the way. Im waiting for the mobile strategy and i feel like that intel just talk about great people and i used to do a lot of work with intel. I keep hoping its their time but theyre still too pc oriented. There have been a few upgrades lately, not all to buy necessarily. But they have been mostly about the promise of mobile at intel. This is a little more concrete in. It is. If you believe in this upgrade, go by Hewlett Packard because its the Hewlett Packard business that might be driving it or the enterprise, thats a fancy word that analysts use to say companies are liking it. Even afters year hb has had yes, you want to own it. Boom. You want to own it. Talk about leadership all year long. You mentioned big lots, they dont execute that well, meg whitman at Hewlett Packard executing really well, intel executing really well but selling a product people dont want, the personal computer, unless david was saying look what we got in front of us. If companies have to do a refresh and buy a lot of equipment, they may use Hewlett Packard. And in the news, Nelson Mandela passed away at the age of 95 after a long illness. The president among those paying tribute to mandela yesterday. Let us pause and give thanks to the fact that Nelson Mandela lived and a man who took history in his hands and bent of arc of history toward justice. I never got to meet him. I got to spend a weekend with bishop tutu, who is very prominently involved with this and he explained to me there should have been a revolution, there should have been a terrible bloodshed, just absolutely what we regard to be the greatest conflagration. Didnt happen. They did a truth and reconciliation. That was designed to make it to say, listen, the whites did bad but were moving forward. Its funny, you dont really understand. If it didnt happen, if there wasnt a civil war he prevented a civil war. Martin luther king may have prevented a civil war in our country. You go back to the days when that happened, you cannot believe there were not huge riots. People were talking about concentration camps. No. Mandela didnt let it happen. His grace, his ability to let go of resentment, almost super human. You tweeted this morning was a fabulous tweet, carl. Resentment is like drinking poison and expecting it to kill your enemies. I was watching they had a quote about this man. I often hesitate to talk about anything beyond stocks because i dont have that expertise but i remember bishop tutu saying why dont americans focus more about this good because its what leadership can mean. Of course theres a big celebration in johannesburg and the official state funeral will be on december 15th. When we come back, well talk to jas jason furman, president of the economic council. Live from the nyse when we come back. Americans take care of business. They always have. They always will. Thats why you take charge of your future. Your retirement. Ameriprise advisors can help you like theyve helped millions of others. Listening, planning, working one on one. To help you retire your way. With confidence. Thats what Ameriprise Financial does. Thats what they can do with you. Ameriprise financial. More within reach. Dash ahead of the open. Ata is one youve loved to talk about all year long. It created by the managers. Tougher than expected sales environment, heightened promotional environment. These are actually quotes from the Conference Call. Over and over again. The other side is that Herb Greenberg writes saying wait a second, what really happened is the ceo came in, and turned around and said maybe things arent so great. So people might say this stock is down 20 and have i to buy it. Typically a down 20 stock is down again the next day. Someone called it a welcome reversal from overwrought optimism. Right . Yeah. Go to the ulta web site. The buon did well, this was a very specialized business. What was most daunting was that we basically felt how could ulta ever miss . Compare that with canness, a texasbased retailers that sells mat interestses and everyone felt like they could roll them out forever. When you see this, carl, understand this is the fire you play with when youre in retail that is supposed to have no glitches. This story was not supposed to have a glitch and people are basically saying i didnt even know they were that price sensitive. They were doing a lot of promotion at the end. Its a very instructional Conference Call to go listen to because you basically got the sense they didnt know how bad things really were. Interesting. Thats going to be one to watch. Linkedin. They used the word. When the duck comes done. They mention china. Theyre going to china. Im a huge fan of this company. People thought the last quarter was weak, i felt it was terrific because theyre spending a lot to dominate the world. Moving into china is a gigantic game changer with them. You have tens of millions of people on linked in. China could be very important. In the spectrum, were getting another hold rating on twitter today. Twitter came back to where it opened and facebook is the 45. Twitter going from 49 to 45 and then going to 41 really sent a whole group of stocks down in a tizzy. A lot of the cloudbased stocks. Theres a company i really, really like. Youre going to see it, its called veeva. This does pharmaceutical, cloud based its a salesforce. Com. Taking hoonl amount of businesses away from oracle. So the cloudbased companies, the linked in, the return of twitter to 45, the facebook to 49 adds up to that group going to outperform tonight. Is it the small are companies were just getting to know . Or is it google . Google is not a high multiple stocks wday didnt go up because of the funk around its cloud. I cant believe how good google is. I wake up and it like google must be if you went to you sound like druckenmiller. Some of our companies are so good. If i were in china, why cant we be more like google. America istorying why cant we calling of the party. Google. We got alibaba. Come on, i want. If you go back to 1934, 1935, chicago reporters were afraid to keep their journalists there and they were surprised the writin mae ma im just saying the pressure against free press everywhere is a big issue. Dont go away. Looking at covered call strategies to generate income . With fidelitys options platform, weve completely integrated every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies. To get a list of equity options. Evaluate them with our p l calculator. 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I Italian Government climbed to a seven week high after the European Central bank draghi said it would prevent this would have sent the panel down a hundred pients. Now if we even bother to read it jeff said the market today is giving their permission to taper. Is that true . I like that. He says it not going to be the end of the world. There is the opening bell. You will see a fair amount green as we look at the of your screen. The s p has not had a negative since 2007. Goldman sachs sachs management celebrating today. And scott does that at last clear the decks to get us through the next few weeks . I kept thinking of hugh are you going to get that data. I guess you get it like this. I dont want to be too dplib. The retall thin has continued to puzzle me. It makes feel some of the american retailers are more promotional. Some of them are prok promming a but about when you have this Many Companies say its promotional, maybe the big dogs have said weve got to teak big share, lets it may not be as as too many maybe it that the targets and the wall marts have said were not losing any more share of anybody. Were going to cut price. Were coming back and maybe we cant beat tjx or cost co at its game but we can crush these other guys. Mabb that the come of when they need to report somethings that really bad, they talk about something thats really good. I always like the ceos that come out and say, man, we really blew it. Made me mike like teenage air peril stock notre dame even the o as gal mid 0s does a good job. I was saying to a terrific bank and some them have just gaffe gated this period as well. Up cant get a pain bow thats the place to go today. You want to know what to go, you guy some mowing. Ivm. R end. Cloud hufrts thembut the cloud less mess money. If you have build your Gross Margins and key metric not do well. I think ibm warmed up to where it is because of warren buffett. If you believe the jobs number is a real tell about where were going in the next few months, there are specific micromicrothings you follow, names you buy as a follow on that . Is it an adp . Paychecks was donegraded talking about that 8 million in gm. Gchl es got a big pension liability. Loolk that and thats one of my charitable trusts updwraded. Youve been pu. The government then decided that jpmorgan was the poster boy. Theyre going to do quite well in this krirn. Ffrm. I remember you saying you expected jpm to get a faster premium than i think theyll do better in this american. Bank of america, no one really cares. Brian moynihan, is he doing a good job . Yes. Hes doing a good job and i was critical of his regime and im not anymore. Michael corbet is quietly doing a good job. You love to talk about the oils. Lumber schlumberger is doing good. Apple being down 2 with their cash hoard theyre going to be able to make money off their cash. Apple is now down one if you net it from when they got the china mobile deal. Buy apple. Watch these cloud stocks. If veeva is right, salesforce. Com will break down off its high. All of the veeva system is balanced on salenumber the Unemployment Rate drop jason furman is the chairman of the president s counsel of economic advisers. Its great to you have back. Thanks for having me. Your early take on these numbers. Its certainly

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