Eastern time. And in europe some markets have already closed early. The nikkei did hit 15,000 briefly for the first time in six years. Our road map begins with Holiday Cheer for the market. It might sound like a broken record but once again stocks set to open at fresh highs. Today is another important day for retail. Some stores are staying open for as much as 100 hours straight to try to take advantage of the late rush. But with new data showing a drop in sales, will those extra hours be enough to boost holiday totals . And what was the most important story for your money . Its not over yet but weve got that answer for you. And were joined by Dennis Berman, Business Editor and columnist at the wall street journal. The bulls are in a pretty jolly move this Christmas Eve, nasdaq closing at its highest level in more than 13 years, all three major averages posting their strongest fourday winning streaks in over two months. For more on this record market rally, lets bring in paul hickey, cofounder of spoke investment. Guys, good morning. Good to have both of you. Good morning. Hi, carl. You cant deny its been great but we are, in your view, getting into the territory in which we would potentially overshoot. I think so, carl. I mean, i dont think necessarily valuations are egregiously rich at this juncture. We trading at about 15 times what consensus estimates are for earnings in 2014. Unless we see Economic Activity pick up substantially, we we have as a base line forecast it will, if equity prices continue to power higher, particularly at the pace you had mentioned weve seen in the last couple of weeks, were clearly in overshoot territory. I worry that makes us vulnerable to a corrective phase, which would be natural and welcome but nonetheless, were overdue. Can that happen, paul, in an environment where gdp does have a forehandle, where these durables this morning come in well . The Mortgage Apps aside, which were a bit of a miss, can the data keep track with what the markets suggesting . I think to marks point, we cant keep going at this pace forever and ever. But the valuations, weve gotten a little bit above average on valuations so far this year. But in bull markets you dont see bull markets peak at average levels. They start off overshooting to the down side cheaplyle have youd and overshoot to the up side. The way were set up now, we would expect to see a very good year again in 2014 provided things stay the way they are but a year is a long time. So we take things one step at a time. What do you mean provided things stay as they, paul . The most obvious thing to say is the market is full of optimism about the economy, a solid ground there, and yet the bull market as yet has not sold off to a level that the rates rise to slow down that economy and to cause concern. Would that be the cutting edge of your concern . Well two, things that were watching that arent of big concern yet but if they keep up would be concerning to us are jobless claims in the last two weeks have really spiked higher. Thats been a great realtime tracker and correlated very well with the market. So seasonal distortions have been attributed to that. So we want to see how that smooths out. But also while weve been seeing a real flattening of the yen between the 10 and 5year treasuries, if you look back over the last several years, that has been certainly that led to shortterm market pullback. So every time weve seen a narrowing a big narrowing like were starting to see now in that curve, its been a little bit negative for the market. So thats something we want to keep. Positive earnings from corporate america, do you think well get that next year . I do. I think were in the midst of the synchronized growth, accelerating, 85 of the worlds gdp is not only boasting growth but is picking up. Its not a stretch to see we have better earnings in 2014 meaning upper single digits, maybe double digits if i could get that ambitious. As a consequence, that is going to be the driver for equity valuations and prices next year, not multiple expansions, which was predominant in 2013. The cover of usa today this morning at least. This is on the cover, above the fold. Santa claus rally is real. I wonder the optics, retail participation, investor sentiment. How will that alter the market in 2014 . Thats a good point. You have instances where its gotten overbullish. And theyve only been above 50 a few times in the past five years. When ever we see a singledigit pullback in the market, that sentiment does really turn on a dime. So you view this as a real rally. The median over the last hundred years is somewhere around 14. 5. Theres enough organic real growth and not governmentcreated growth to sustain something in 2014 . Well, certainly from our im sorry, go ahead. Okay. I would say certainly it will allow for risk assets to perform reasonably well on the back of actual economic underpinnings that are more fundmentally found and not induced. And like in japan as carl had noted hit 16,000 today because i think there we can see not only the fiscal and Economic Reforms getting some traction but the growth being encountered in those areas will bode well for equity prices. On balance, thats where i think again investors will be rewarded even more so than u. S. Equities. Though u. S. Equities will be better than bonds and cash in 2014. Mark, paul, had a wonderful holiday, guys. Thank you. You the same, carl. Its not what retailers want to hear. Shopper track says retail brick and mortar traffic decreased 21 from where we were a year ago. Bad weather prevented many from getting to the stores. Target saw traffic fall 5 last weekend. This as the retailer deals with fallout from a massive credit card and debit card data breach. At a time, dennis, when Consumer Sentiment came in strong yesterday. That 20 number doesnt seem right. Its scary. Its such a huge drop. What weve learned is there are so many gimmicks the retailers are putting forward. Black friday really became a week of sales. Weve seen so many promotions online but when it comes down to it, the wallet for this part of the Consumer Spend is really people are willing to spend more than on some of the retail buys. Even in the bubble that is manhattan, there are an awful lot of restaurants near me downtown that are closing down at the moment. Its totally anecdotal but it does indicate the way people spend is changing dramatically. Electronics clearly spring to mind. The spend to electronics as opposed to clothing and other nondurable goods, its really picked pup. Maybe weve reached the fulcrum where traffic is no longer a proxy for actual sales. You cant judge a book by its cover. Even the comscore sales are down. Thats online. But not down 22 . I find that number hard to believe, 22 . But no doubt, right . We all know more shopping is going to online. Its a relatively small percentage, 6 overall. Its okay if you think theyre holding their margins. It doesnt look like theyre holding their margins where volume is down. If you said volume is down because were keeping our prices up where were making decent profits, thats not the impression you get. Theyre cutting cost as deflation and yet look at macys stock, as one sector of the retailers, its been doing incredibly well. Weve seen jcpenney has its problems, sear his its own problem. I think you can draw kind of a shrug which its not terrible, its not great, its somewhere in the middle, which doesnt necessarily make for great tv. Retailers are trying to lure some of you procrastinators. How big a boost will chain stores get from the lastminute holiday rush . Well talk about that. Plus facebook and twitter shareholders, man, do you have reasons to smile this year. Did you see the action on twitter yesterday . Unbelievable. Well look at whether they can continue to rally. One more look at futures on this Christmas Eve, an abbreviated treasures. Traders will sing wait till the sun shines, nellie at 11 00. Well be back in a minute. Of unsurpassed craftsmanship and some of the best offers of the year at the lexus december to remember sales event. This is the pursuit of perfection. At the lexus december to remember sales event. [ bagpipes and drums playing over ] [ music transitions to rock ] make it happen with the allnew fidelity active trader pro. Its one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Get 200 free trades when you open an account. [ male announcer ] this december, experience the gift of true artistry and some of the best offers of the year at the lexus december to remember sales event. This is the pursuit of perfection. Oh, where is santa claus, i look for him because its Christmas Eve welcome back to squawk on the street on this Christmas Eve. Retailers are pulling out all the stops on this final shopping day before christmas, somewhere in the middle of a marathon staying open for more than a hundred hours in an effort to lure those lastminute shoppers but will the move pay off . Sarah, what are you seeing . Reporter well, kayla, these crazy shopping hours are a whole new strategy for the big retailers and believe it or not, we were here at 3 00 a. M. And people do come out in the dark, straight to this toys r us behind me and they dont leave empty handed. Turns out that toys r us is not alone. It has been open for several days, select macy stores have been open since friday and kohls has always been open since friday. The question for analysts and everyone really is is it going to pay off . There will always be that oneoff person that has free time at 3 00 in the morning but in general i dont really think its helping retail. Its adding labor hours and potentially hurting margins. Another analyst agreed. Theyre not convinced its going to move the needle on this Holiday Shopping season. The problem is retailers are dealing with a number of headaches in particular this year. Number one, the consumer is pretty sluggish, traffic down 20 in the last week versus last year. Theres another quirk this year and that is sixday shorter Retail Holiday season between thanksgiving and christmas. The retailers will have to figure out a way to squeeze the same number of profits out of less time. And online, doubledigit growth online. Brick and mortar has to compete with that 24 7 shopping model. If youre an employee of toys r us and your employer says were going to be open, do you welcome the wage . I talked to some employees, they were happy, they were wearing their santa claus hat and i think this is their marathon. The lines are starting to form. Will it be enough to add enthusiasm to what so far seems like a lack luster season for brick and mortar sales . Luckily there is a lyight at the end of the tunnel for them. For the latest in the lastminute shopping. Lets bring in our guest analysts. Should we worry for the retailers here . Yeah, i think its a fair point that was just made, the notion between sales and profits now. We have the shorter holiday period to sandwich the same level of sales. When you think about from the profit perspective, you can see promotions rampant across the mall. Thats across the line. Can you talk about margins . These are highly sophisticated retail teams. The fact theres six days left for shopping, theyve seen that for a long time. You have price and you have time. So youre pulling your price, youre rolling out promotions and you can go earlier and extend it. Weve seen headlines that black friday used to be a threehour period. Its starting earlier and going later. You want to get the market share. When im looking at that, you look at a gap out there talking about we went earlier, we opened up earlier and we have more promotions than we had last year, that should drive that market share dollar and then you get the holiday sales piece. You look at the teen retailers, the promotions are there, youre not seeing those dollars flow through as much. The holiday winners will be a sales line winner. I dont know that anyone will say im really ecstatic at the price at which i told my goods. Ed, what are you telling clients . I would tell you we believe the high end continues to be very resilient. We look at a high end like tiffany where they dont discount and sales trends have been very, very strong. The teen space youre seeing rampant discounting, youre seeing a teen really focused on their tablet and new game system and, frankly, theyre not making that clothing purchase. We saw one of the most interesting ipos of the year was zulily, a Retail Company with clothes for kids. Tear a theyre a 10 billion company, which is rather shocking. Are they benefiting more than the rest of the not have. The consumers need a reason to shot. One of the reasons that zulily is so compelling is people feel they need to make that purchase or the item will go away. Can you do that with bricks and mortar . I think Nordstrom Rack is a great example of a retailer where if you dont see it there at this moment, you dont purchase it there, it may not be there later on. Thats where Nordstrom Rack and t. J. Max have been very successful in that market. How do you feel where inventory is being put to local brick and Mortar Stores and sent out via online channels. Is that effective or not . The sales levels have gone from 10 to 15 across my universe. You have the ability to categorize where your inventory sits. You can improve your mark down levels. Any given store is never going to be as effective as a d. C. D. C. Distribution center. Sorry. The people working in the stores have to learn how to ship out and you think about the fulliliment that Companies Like amazon or dedicated ecommerce will have, its never going to be as strong. What games do you like at the moment . I think gap could be a winner and Signet Jewelers is going to be a holiday winner. Guys, have a great holiday. Simeon and ed. Coming up, what to expect from todays trading session. Take a look at futures. The dow is up five of the past six Christmas Eves. Well see what this brings when squawk on the street comes back. E and invest their own way. With scottrades smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. 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Probably not with the holiday spirit but if it gets above 2. 975, then i think it might put some pressure on equities. Santa claus rally, average of 1. 6 to the up side in most years since 1969. What do you think well see between now and then . We have some specials of Economic Data, we have some retailers that are going to be coming out with Holiday Season numbers. What are you looking for . Well, i think were going to have a pretty upbeat mood for the market, we have skeleton crews around but i think that will favor the historic santa claus rally kind of thing. The grinch that might steal christmas but more likely that will steal part of the new year is mortgage applications. And they, as rates have been inching up, they have been moving down. And the last numbers i looked at, the refis were as bad as theyve been since lehman was falling apart. Doesnt it seem bernanke has done a pretty good job of directing the market that theres going to be some things out of the fed buying bag and rates inch up, isnt that what hes been communicating all along and its a normal process . Hes been trying to restrain that with this idea that were anchored at zero. Hes having some success but the success is growing limited. I wouldnt want to call him the bond vigilante. We have some inching up even the shortterm rates here. Thats going to be a problem for him and for yellen. When you think ahead to next year, the rise in rates, what are you most thinking about . Success. We have created billions of dollars, which is lying fallow in the feds vault in the name of the various banks. If they begin lending and we begin spending develvelocity. Velocity in the money supply will get the fed in a minor panic and they may accelerate themselves that will be disruptive to the market. All right. And one last point for the viewers, cashins annual christmas poem, this years version is on the cnbc web site. Watch it before you have anything to eat. Well hear your singing tones at 11. Yes, nellie will be there. For those who cant see, those are beautiful ornaments. Opening bell just minutes away. I[ male announcer ] once, there was a man who found a magic seashell. It told him what was happening on the Trading Floor in real time. The shell brought him great fame. But then, one day, he noticed that everybody could have a magic seashell. [ indistinct talking ] [ male announcer ] right there in their Tradin