Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20140124 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street January 24, 2014

And europe is hurting especially spain. Lets start with the markets and the stocks set to open in the red as the dow and s p are on pace for their worst week in a month and a half following a slide in several emerging markets and the international currencies. Microsoft set to open in the green after reporting stronger than expected profits. And starbucks getting a jolt set to om higher after First Quarter earnings top estimates and starbucks raised its guidance for the rest of the year and well talk to the chairman and ceo shoulder shultz later on this hour. First up, though, futures are falling one day after the 176point drop in the dow and the s p on track for a second week in declines in the wake of the selloff in emerging market assets. Slower Growth Prospects in china and various local political issues among the key factors. Of particular note a big drop in currencies like the lira which hit a record low against the dollar this morning and the argentinean peso. It has authorized citizens to buy colors and lowered surcharge on any dollar purchases. The country has been trying to decline a severe decline in its 4x reserves. These things popped out of nowhere. Yeah, they did. Im going to recommend the strategy no one wants to hear. Dont panic. Because panic is just really in vogue. When you feel it, you really want to join. Its difficult to try to understand how there have been moments where we have survived a tenfold turkish lira devaluation. Its difficult to recognize when venezuela went from being an investable country to being a rogue nation and we had good markets. In the 1988 and 1989 time frame when brazil and venezuela disappeared and bank of boston almost got taken down because of it. Four weeks from now many of the issues were facing are not going to be as important and at the same time honeywell, Procter Gamble, bristolmyers, Stanley Works, microsoft, kimberlyclark, starbucks all reported excellent quarters and no one will care at all today. No one. You know, its interesting, though, you say that because this morning i did come in and i made two sets of phone calls. One to people i knew who knew argentin argentina, a couple of Portfolio Managers who held argentinean bonds. And the others, just a phone call in general, are you worried. And most not anywhere near panicking in terms of what you said, even hearing the things, you know, its not so bad for the market to turn a little bit. I hate to say it but sort of build this base and lets kind of get moving. But these things will pass. As for argentina, this is not insignificant. Its important for this country, that being argentina, in terms of, all right, the risk there has always can hyperinflation. By the way, the black Market Exchange rate has always been far lower than the official exchange rate, but the key will be reserves as carl said and they have an expectation of taking in 8 billion of reserves, its summer there, the farmers sell a lot of the crops, the wheat, the soybeans or whatever, and dollars and turn them right in. And so there is that belief that this may be quickly dealt with. Will you get an imf in there, you know, theres a lot of other qes. But bonds have not been hit that badly. Its important to distinguish this between the euro crisis. Let me just say one thing. If the futures go down today and i was calm, people will think that, well, why wasnt cramer more vociferous about the need to sell. And the answer is because these crises while they all look the same, some of them are cypr cyprcypru cyprus and spain and italy. If you want to put it in context, argentina is more cyprus. Mike white once told me that direct tv had a lot of business. Im trying to put it in perspective, because there was a reason to worry about europe because our banks were very intertwined. Theres always a reason to worry about china because we do so much business there. And italy being one of the largest bond issuers in the world. But this is a stove that has been touched before. I had a big position in yapi credit. The bank of america of turkey. Thats what they told me. I met with them. I thought they were brilliant. It was great, it was great, it was great. I noticed one day i came in and it was worth onetenth what i paid for it. It was unchanged in the stock market. But the turkish lira had killed me. I think we have to we have to bring these issues up. But here i am if im working at bristolmyers, im saying what the cramer going to talk about, the fact that we just had an unbelievable quarter reoriented toward cancer, what does that have to do with the pricetoearnings ratio of bristolmyers, the answer is absolutely nothing but its something people talk about. Well get to all of those reports be got last night and this morning. Really quick, though, Lloyd Blankfein at Goldman Sachs, of course, was on joe, becky and andrew on squawk and was asked about the emerging market selloff and heres what he said. In the long run somebody said you take a position on the emerging markets and you cant change your mind for, fill in the blank, one year, five years, id be long, not short. It doesnt mean ill feel good about the next sure, in the long run you have to bet on growth. And the growth has been there. Although we will see, again, those markets taking it hard. They do seem to trade in unison very often. Or at least together. Mitigating this idea of diversity. Lets move on to specific stocks, though, this morning and as jim said, its largely a lot of good news at least today. Not necessarily through much of earnings season, but microsoft, for example, reported fiscal Second Quarter results that were above wall street estimates. Helped by strong holiday sales in his video consoles and surface tb tablets, they had upbeat results for the Office Software suite but it provided no update on a search to successor for retiring ceo steve balmer, but a nice note for him to go out on one would think, i dont have a lot to add on that, in terms of they apparently were down to two candidates. Right. Some time ago. I have not been updated by anybody close enough to the situation that i would believe they knew what was going on. Well see. We expected perhaps any day now. I was reading this literally going over the same time as another Portfolio Manager doing it, when we completed it, we said, steve, dont go this was it. Hes waited for 58 years to come up with this quarter. And hes leaving now . This was an allcylinders xbox Surface Enterprise quarter i mean, this was the great growth stock report. See you later, steve. Xbox strong holiday sales, the surface tablet revenue doubles year over year. The phone business obviously still challenged especially after what we heard from nokia. Right. But amy hood, geez, she was good on the Conference Call. Getting a plus for capital allocation, too, waking up on that. Yes. Xbox, this was an xbox people talk about what wasnt selling in retail. Well, when you read this, we dont see. I am favoring i was hoping that allen law would come in and break it up and wed have this device business, apropos with what we talked about yesterday with donahoe. The device business, the xbox took retail sales. It actually had a percentage of retail sales. When we look at what people spent on, this number buried within this Great American company was so huge that somebody didnt buy Something Else. They bought an xbox. On a holiday where the pc saw its first holiday decline in five years. Yes. They had head winds to deal with, too. If they put together xbox and skype and i told steve this, we were knocking back a couple ipas, the first time i knew what an ipa was. Really . They taste awful. Look, this device, youve got this skype and youve got xbox and its, like, you know, i think he was in a kind of moment there for him, but its really, truly all came together in this, his last quarter. Yeah. It is. This is his last quarterly report. Right. He went out on a high. I wondered if he weeped privately. He likes to cry. That kind face, it never works, you know, its never really played out. If you own starbucks shares you are not crying today. The coffee chain said profits rose 25 in the fiscal First Quarter 71 cents a share, did top consensus. Global samestore sales up 5 in the period slightly below forecasts. Starbucks says more people chose to shop online during the holidays instead of going out to stores but they are raising earningspershare guidance for the fiscal live and stay tuned for the live and exclusive interview with Howard Schultz later this hour with squawk on the street. Americas the overall trend is coming down in terms of samestore sales. Howard does not shy from that. He talks about the notion of mall traffic. This is the sea change. Im sure well speak when we speak with him, he wants very much to talk about this, by the way. Even though mall for him in the u. S. Is not a predominant business, he addressed this notion this is the quarter where people really started saying, you know, ill look at the mall, and ill showroom it and then im going to go elsewhere to buy and a competitor no longer is in the mall, its all the way across the country. But what he didnt do and i accused him of burying the lead, frankly, this european number is miraculous, plus five. The china number is plus five. But howard in its brilliant Conference Call, but i would have done a different arc because what he did was basically said, listen, heres why the u. S. Is weak and then the analysts pounced on u. S. And u. S. Wasnt weak. Mcdonalds u. S. Is weak. Starbucks was the strongest, a plus five number in u. S. . Only macys and costco, seattle company, only macys and costco delivered that kind of performance. But howard is not one to shy away from what was weak. And he brought that up right up top. I dont think it was weak at all and thats why the stock is up, not down. Yeah, were obviously going to ask him about the shift to food and whether that path to higher margins is on track. The normalization of some coffee prices, right . The expansion. The margins still good. One of the things, you know, you talk about drivethrough doing good and belange rolls out and remodelling and starbucks Consumer Products story. Carbonated beverage story went well and china sales strong. Yet this was a huge short in the market. People were telling me, jim, bail, bail, bail, on twitter when they are not napalming me, they are using daisy cutters telling me how could you be behind starbucks. I have Chemical Nuclear weapons in my arsenal and right now i am keeping them in place. Lets try to demilitarize across the board. How about a little love on this friday . Lets sit down at the table. It is starbucks is a battleground. Yes. And there are people very much who wanted this stock down because it was xrushl crucial t thee sills that the Growth Stocks are too high and howard didnt fit the thesis. As i said the interview is coming up later this hour. In the meantime well get more on the earnings parade including the pulse of the consumer with names like p g and kimberlyclark after the break. Howard schultz interview and one more look at futures here, we havent had a triple digit losses on the dow since december 11th and 12th potentially could do it today. Well see. Squawk on the street from post nine is back in a minute. A lot of earnings to tell you about today including names synonymous with the consumer, Procter Gamble, kimberly clack, stanley and black decker reporting betterthanexpected numbers and honeywell and altera beat the street as well. Lets talk about p g, volume up three, health care up six. Beauty still the problem. Right. We keep thinking, well, when are we going to wake up and say weve got three companies here . But thats not the way theyre going. Theyre focusing on the fact that the organic sales were up three. I think that this is a company where i saw grooming be a little bit better. I like that. Its a company that is misunderstood by a lot of people because in the last few years its been a battleground and this is kind of like a soothing quarter. There was nothing really negative about it. I continue to continue its a Charitable Trust name. I continue to believe theyll catch up to unilever in emerging markets. Certainly after what unilever said earlier in the week, looking at some of their first fall, i think, slowdown since 09 in terms of demand. This company is coming back and one of the things that is really difficult, the dollar has made you read the reports and it looks horrible. But the dollar is strong. Look, if youre selling in turkey, right, you just got your numbers, your numbers are down 30 . But youre looking at it saying, wait a second, i sold just as much shampoo. People have to recognize its not just the euro. And if you look at the pg release in the third paragraph its got volume and then Foreign Exchange and Foreign Exchange wipes out volume in almost every category. Juniper beats by six cents. A lot of talk not just about elliott but janna and the new ceo who some argue is actually receptive to some of the activist demands. We reported on elliott, they are in there 6 , 6. 2 i think it is trying to be constructive at this point more suggestive than activist. Suggestive . So good isnt that good . Im a suggestive. Yes. Well see how long that lasts. But activism has been the story of last year and now this year already. Whether its juniper or any number of names. Just think about the week that weve had whether it be dow chemical with dan loeb or ebay with mr. Icahn or apple with mr. Icahn. We will continue to talk about this in significant ways, but juniper is a company now as you point out, carl, not just of elliott. If i were at juniper, id be so angry, listen, we have the cycle going for us and the volume of business is finally good and now you come in starting to make noise its been awful and the whole way down and you said nothing and now its finally good to us and are suggesting. They are probably saying shrink to grow. They finally got it right and now they are all over them throw the bums out stanley beats by two cents. Sales up nine. Construction up six two in do it yourself. Europe did not hurt them for once. I have a theory. And stephanie bounces back and forth with me on this. When you see a company that has horrible quarters last fime they dont let it happen again. They did pull it off. Europe turning is a continuing theme. I know we have to focus on on countries that are right now currency plunging, but when you listen to chuck bunch, europes turning. Its turning in a rather substantial way. And thats why Stanley Works can rally. Honeywell beats by three cents and revenue which had been consistently missing expectations for the past few quarters finally beats. Organic volume up, again, five. Monster quarter. Dave cody really delivering. Total confidence, Charitable Trust name, i love the guy. He lives next door to me. What do you do . I have to disclose it, when i had a big party at the back of my house, he didnt complain. Its one of those quarters a lot of the things the money hes put into new projects is really being reaped. They are also in aerospace which is so strong. What do you make of the fact unilever and today its hyundai and samsung. The multinationals not based here warning about 2014 that looks a lot tougher to them. In case by case, i look at whats happening with samsung and i say apple. Apples taking back the leadership. Look, thats where it is. Right. Not necessarily because apples done anything that monumental, but samsung perhaps has failed to advance in the way that they had been in the last year or two in terms of product development. A year ago samsung had the momentum and i think the momentum has switched. This is a bit of a momentum game. Not unlike the nfl. Some teams get hot. Samsung was very hot. And now samsungs no. And i think that matters. You know, we can focus endlessly on what carl icahn wants to do but if i were at apple, i would say we have it now, samsung doesnt. And the reports that apple looking at a larger screen. Yes. Potentially a curved screen and, of course, today if you havent heard by now is the 30th anniversary of the mac, the mcintosh, feirst time a lot of people had see a trash can as the way to delete a file. You forget how new that was. I know. Wow. Think about that price point, though, as a percentage of the average income. Holy cow. I know. I was doing some work on the price point of the average income of a couple of starbucks in china. What did you come up with . Well, people say its equivalent of 27. Really . Yeah. But its really good coffee. Yeah, its its got its got triple vente with it. Its got the vente thing. Thats worth 10 right there. When we come back cramers mad dash, well count down to the opening bell and later a slive and exclusive interview with starbucks Howard Schultz. Look one more look at futures as we wrap up this challenging week. More squawk on the street in a minute. With the lights on and shes making her play ppen in a seco. With fidelitys guaranteed onesecond trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 Market Centers to look for the best possible price, maybe even better than you expected. Its all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. Im derrick chan of fidelity investments. 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