Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20140319 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street March 19, 2014

Of sleeping. Big things ahead today, right . Youve got the exclusive with schul schultz, we cant wait for that. Its not about the triple pu on. The value of the payments business at starbucks talking about how much its worth and how important it might be here as a rival to some of these card companies. Yeah. Look, bob nardelli made a great point if you can cut out the little big, the vig that visa and mastercard get, if you can make it so someone nearing the store is able to pay for it ahead of time and own the register why should this be limited to starbucks. This is a trillion dollar market and Howard Schultz moved over from his daytoday running on starbucks to focus on this. Is it worth more than the company . Same say it is, i think its a little bit of hyperbole but well find out. So fascinating. The red carpet on the stairs behind you looks like the dolby theater like youre in the Academy Awards and youll sit next to hanks and brad pitt. Wow. I mean, if they show up if Richard Sherman shows up apparently hes on vacation. Wishful thinking. Well talk to you in a few. Lets look at this wednesday on wall street and look at the futures. It looks like a Third Straight day of gains off the open, kel, with the dow an implied open of 17 points and the s p is inside 1 away from an alltime intraday high. Certainly a far cry with the way that last week ended with the situation developing in the ukraine and crimea and everything else. Theres the tenyear note in focus today, the yield, of course, is, 269 ahead of janet yellen meeting the press later today. And as for europe, take a look there. Hows the map look this morning . More green than red. So, thats a plus there at least right now. There you go. Our roadmap today starts with, what else, but the fed. In just a few hours from now janet yellen will give her First Press Conference as fed chair. Big question on the minds of investors today, does yellen have any surprises in store this afternoon. Plus, blaming it on the weather. Fedex posting a big miss in its latest quarter thanks to, quote, unusually severe winter storms. Well tell you if that could carry over to the rest of the year and other companies here as well. Speaking of earnings both oracle and adobe going in Different Directions today after reporting yesterday afternoon. Find out if you should think about buying either of these tech giants. And janet yellen and the Federal Reserve in the spotlight today. The fed concluding yellens first meeting as fed chair with a policy statement in about five hours from now and it will be followed by yellens first News Conference as fed chairman coming a half hour later. The fed expected to cut its monthly bond buying by another 10 billion. Investors also watching to see if policymakers finetune their Forward Guidance. Be sure to watch cnbcs special coverage of all of that and that begins at 2 00 p. M. And thats taking center stage today. Absolutely. This is a historic day and we forget about it, scott, because we cover it day in, day out, hour in, hour out. Were talking about janet yellen taking over at the Federal Reserve. Well hear from her during the press conference for the first time and where theyll make tweaks and Rick Santelli, he was mentioning it yesterday. Nothing of significance happening. Frankly this is a moment, jim, where the fed is going to start to rethink how through communicating with the public about what theyre going to do with policy here. Yeah. Look, i think that yellen is a seasoned hand. I think we all kind of think shes never had the mike. Shes been behind the mike for years. Im more focused on the forgiveness mode. Look at fedex, it was terrible, the stock is trading up. I didnt like the oracle call, but it didnt matter. Adobe initially the stock traded down and now it is up. Kb homes theres something that could be impacted by the fed. They had excellent numbers on every single line, housing, transport, tech. What more could you ask . You know, jim, how yellen communicates with the market i guess is going to be the most important thing because i think its fair to say that at times mr. Bernanke and company had difficulty in getting their message to the markets, delivered in the most effective way, so certainly traders here on the floor and Market Participants everywhere are going to be hoping for a clear, distinct, direct message from miss yellen this afternoon. Yeah, we have to, because remember the may fiasco, bernanke who is a very levelheaded guy admitted they did not communicate right. Obviously yellen is not going to get a honeymoon on this particular aspect bus the futures traders are going to be in there, i think theyll probably fire away the moment she started speaking in order to participate the markets been up three days and the shorts are dying here. Ever since they put the shorts in on friday betting that secretary of state kerry, if youve seen him, if you havent, its the wheres the waldo situation, a lot of people were praying there could be a macro decline to cover the shorts. Maybe yellen can be the excuse. They need an excuse because the fundamentals of the companies are not dictating a decline in the take. I dont know if saw it, but jay carney yesterday at the White House Press briefing kind of joking to u. S. Investors you better not be long russian stocks and if you are long, you better be short. What do you think about that . We were talking about the nature of the sanctions and the conversations whether you should buy the russian market because its cheap. Should there be an element of National Interest here in these kind of decisions, should they even go there joking about it . The well, to paraphrase stalin id like to know how many divisions jay carney has. This is one of those situations where i think what happened is putin was well ahead. But, remember, what putin is really trying to do, he wanted to connect you say just with putin. You start thinking he looks better by comparison to some of the dictators in the 1939 era. But do you know what, this is one of those where, yes, maybe carney doesnt want us long russian stocks, but putin clearly covered his short friday and went long. If you want to go whos winning in the storg stock market, im taking putin and i will actually spot carney about 2 . Jim, quickly back to yellen for a moment before we move to fedex. You know, often in these conversations we say, well, what could yellen say that would upset the market. Im wondering what you think she could say that would boost the market in that if she cuts the threshold from 6. 5 on the Unemployment Rate down to 6 ive seen some folks on twitter saying then you go s p off to the races that youre going right atten in00 and when knows where from then. What your thoughts on that . I think yellen needs to say, business is getting better. Its not so good that we can feel really complacent, but the accommodation has been the backdrop for one of the great gains of our lifetime. You got to be able to give the bulls something, meaning that the earnings will be okay in the next quarter, but you got to give the people who dont want who want to sell bonds a little hope that they shouldnt sell them too aggressively because the fed will be there. This is one of those where if she comes on too strong about how strong the economy is, people will say, rates belong at 3 and then youll have the bond market equivalent stocks come down, i think she needs to thread the needle and saying its pretty good but not good enough. Thats how you go higher. I wonder, too, what will happen, scott, to your point on the Unemployment Rate if they dont move the target. The jury is out on the street, don kohn was saying he doesnt think the fed will lower and it has to where the nuance of language becomes important. Lets talk about fedex and highlight the issue of how much to blame the weather. If you are fedex youll be more exposed. They posted a quarter earnings of 1. 23 slrz a share and revenues in the Company Full Year forecast missed consensus, they say severe winter storms disrupted the organization and the increased cost. Should investors give them the benefit of the doubt . Theyll continue to give this company the benefit of the doubt. Look when this incredible rally started. It started between 80 and 85 on the stock when they preannounced not once but twice and people decide this is the ecommerce play. Its really interesting that u. P. S. Did not get the benefit of the doubt because they spent a lot of money to handle the christmas shopping. Fedex has routinely gotten the benefit of the doubt and its a great transport complex thats led the market that we dont talk about. The airlines and trucks and trains, of course, terrific. Fedex is another piece of the puzzle about why commerce worldwide may be coming back and we need to hear what they are saying about asia. Fedex took a big restructuring not that long ago. Its an al roker market. Al roker says the weathers bad, we tend to believe him and we buy fedex. Its the ground business that continues to really thrive at fedex really at the expense of the more expensive International Priority business and some of the other Quick Services that fedex has. Is that concerning in some respects that the part of the business that appears to be growing the most healthy is one of the ones where you would pay less for the service . Well, you got to be careful because nordstroms who im speaking to later today in the most recent Conference Call with analysts made it very clear, look, one and twoday shipping is here to stay. Its not going away. This is the preferred way. The American Consumer has changed the old five to seven day and youll get the package in the mail is gone. This is a trend in favor of fedex. If u. P. S. Doesnt move from 95 to 96, you got to take the stock. They aint that bad. The other think on the weather if theyre considered the bellwether or a bellwether, jim, on weather if you combine what fedex is saying with some of the other transports Norfolk Southern or a conway, you really can do nothing but give fedex the benefit of the doubt when it per takes to the weather. Yeah, well, look, Norfolk Southern, basically when they were able to reduce coal to a smaller part of the percentage of entire revenues and the coal bottomed why because of the weather. I know to give a best of all possible worlds is really a fly in ointment from those that want to be pessimistic. The pessimism train left a long time ago. Jim, lastly on this point. Fedex still has outperformed u. P. S. To your point about some of the holiday stuff that u. P. S. Was dealing with over the past six months and by a pretty wide margin. Why should we expect or should we fear youll not hear from u. P. S. For another month or so about how they fared during this period, what kind of headlines do you anticipate . Do you still like a fedex versus u. P. S. Trade . Yeah, well, look, u. P. S. Really got really got slammed not because of what they said but what they didnt say. They basically said they basically came out and said do you know what, christmas was strong but in the release they put out there was a little line with we basically missed what black friday was. We didnt know when the consumer was really going to swing into action. Fedex got caught in none of the granularity, fedex got a lot of credit for how they handled the christmas season, very soon well forget about christmas and refocus on the fact that u. P. S. Is a great company. Theyve been stalled. They trade to 100 just on a benefit of the doubt catchup trade to how well fedex is doing. Not to mention, jim, u. P. S. On monday we were talking right hear on this set raised their rates by about 4 or so, right . Yeah. Yeah. Take u. P. S. Out of the doghouse if fedex trades to 140. Thats ridiculous. All right, coming up, brewing innovation, jim talking live with starbucks chairman and ceo Howard Schultz. The Company Gears up for its annual Shareholder Meeting its a cnbc exclusive. And also ahead former congressman ron paul sounding off on the fed. The first fomc meeting of the janet yellen era heads into the homestretch. Lets take another look at the futures ahead of the yellen News Conference and the fed decision. The dow implied 17 open. More live from post nine at the New York Stock Exchange when we come become. Come become. Im the best corner in the game dont you ever talk about me. Dont open your mouth about the best or ill shove you real quick thats jim cramers vine channeling Richard Sherman of the super bowl champion Seattle Seahawks he of the famous rant heard round the world. Jim is having a winning day of his own today. Hes in seattle and later this morning hes going to be speaking exclusively with starbucks chairman and ceo Howard Schultz as the Company Holds its Shareholder Meeting today. That along with a starstudded lineup hes going to have on mad money tonight. Jim, you have a seahawkslike lineup on the show this evening. Yes. Lets not forget that r. Sherman 25 did immediately tweet because he does follow me that that was the single best imitation of sherman of anyone and i put myself in the pantheon including frank caliente, im focused on the digital aspects of starbucks but a lot of people are worried about the granularity, are coffee prices too high. For nordstroms how does the best Service Retailer deal with the best Service Online company not far from them amazon. Seattle genetics weve been watching on the tape you always see this incredible biotech moves. Seattle genetics belongs in maybe the maybe in the upper tier of great biotechs. Many of them are popping this morning. And then zillow, what can i say . Zillow owns the online real estate business, they trumped trulia and a lot of people think its incredibly overvalued but it has social and mobile and glowd and thats the holy trinity and it means much higher multiples and including multiples on revenues. Jim, you know, the other interesting thing happening in seattle as well the City Council Just ruled against some of the ridesharing companies. I dont know how youre getting around out there. But, you know, this should be the city, right, thats the most pro innovation in the country, shouldnt it . Yes. But its also its got a labor faction. Look, lets face it. There is a kind of an undercurrent of left wing, perhaps left wing guilt so much moneys being made here, so i think thats one of the undercurrents. Weve seen in san francisco, too. This is the backlash of the 99 versus the 1 but i think its really 95 out here in seattle. Jim, you got a great lineup tonight. Great lineup. So, we certainly are looking forward to that and we have a lot ahead as well. Yeah, were going to hear from Howard Schultz straight ahead. Up next coasttocoast edition of cramers mad dash as we count down toward the opening bell here on the New York Stock Exchange. Look at what futures are doing. So far this week we seem to be continuing the rally but a lot will depend on what happens this afternoon. Dows up 15 points at least in the implied open. More squawk on the street from the New York Stock Exchange after a quick break. Ter a quick. Getting harder to find bargains in this thrift shop as the market keeps going up. We are ten minutes away from the opening bell and time for cramers mad dash ahead of the market open. Jim, you want to start with kb home . There was undercurrent going into this quarter that california had cratered for home sales. People always relate california to kb homes. The bears could not have been more wrong. Im looking at these numbers, people were looking for two cents and they come in at 12 cents. This is inspiring a whole group and the only thing that can shoot it down is janet yellen says, you know, i think mortgages are being given away and we have a housing brother. It was an incredible quarter and it will lift toll and poultry. And its the one to watch in the first half hour of trading. But at the same time mo Mortgage Applications are down four out of five weeks and Housing Affordability moved kind in the wrong direction and a couple of numbers lately on the housing front that wasnt all that great. Whats the disconnect here . Well, we do have to listen to what kb homes says beyond that but i think one of the things weve been focused on, take a look at the raw costs of building a home. The actual margins, you never think of Home Builders as a gross margin play, but they are making much more money per home than they used to. I totally agree with you in terms of the worries of lets say the spring selling season. A lot of people wrote off Home Building already. That seems to be premature. I think theres a tremendous short base in this particular group and i think that short base is going to be run over. Jim just, you know, when you thought maybe apple was going to get going, piper out this morning saying that estimates are too high. Its gene munster. This is a guy as bullish as anybody on the apple story. But as he been right . I question whether he has been really on his game here. I know theres a lot of people who say its the ax in apple. Morgan stanley raises the number of iphones that could be sold. I want to Say Something about both these calls. I think you cant make a call. When i speak with people at apple, they keep saying the same thing, why do analysts keep trying to game us. They keep getti

© 2025 Vimarsana