Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20140923 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street September 23, 2014

Would be a good start. Lets get to our road map and start things off with the markets. Extending yesterdays losses, disappointing Economic News and air strikes in syria are setting the tone for the morning trading. Also weighing on the market, the Obama Administration makes its move to counter inversions. The rising trend of American Companies leaving for lower taxes. Shares of takeover targets such as medtronic, shire and abbey are moving this morning. We may be getting closer to two large transactions. Allergan is in advanced talks to make its own deal to defend off valiant alachemann. Alachemann is already redding to sue. Yesterday nasdaq posting its worst sessions since july 31st. Dip ing dipping to a 2014 low. China rose slightly. You have the u. S. And arab allies launching attacks against islamic militants in syria. President obama due to make a statement on the u. S. Strategy against isis later this morning. Coming up at 11 00 a. M. Eastern, becky quick is going to interview former president bill clinton. That will be live from the Clinton Global Initiative conference in new york city. That interview will air live here on cnbc. Oh, man, weve got so much to go over. Lets start with the markets given yesterday. B we saw the s p down 0. 8 . Geopolitics this morning with significant bombing of targets and syria. What do we do . We are in a bear market for commodities. Its begun the last few weeks and accelerated yesterday. The fact that oil is up 60 cents despite potential major disruption in the middle east. Shows you, it is just popper was off gigantic yesterday. These are signs of a worldwide slowdown. If there isnt a deal between russia and europe, europe is going to slip onto a very serious recession. The chinese comments resonated throughout the world. We are starting to see new signs. Oil slowing. Truck building slowing. Thats been driven. Aerospace rolling over. When the commodity complex rolls over, it reminds people of august of the between period where you began to see no, bear market and commodities. Youve got to own it. Thats when the credit markets stopped functionally properly a slow, steady drip of credit markets seizing up. That is not happening now. Far from it. Empirically. Is this in china . Yes, all china. China would tell you if europe doesnt turn around, weve got no place to put the stuff we do export. Its russia. It all started with russia. We could have been up today with that chinese pmi. Chinese was okay. We are looking at a selfinflicted wound between the tensions in western europe and russia, and as it gets colder, all i hear about over and over is gazprom shutting down the west. David crane talking about solar power in germany. Europe is powered by natural goods. Natural gas comes from russia. If they dont get a settlement here, if the tensions continue, europe does go down minus one, minus two. That means china, just the reverberations. The bear market is in commodities. Event lu, you would think what a great beneficiary we are. The stuff i saw yesterday on the nasdaq had nothing to do with commodities. That was a lockin feel. Yesterday was a very bad hangover. There was a big belief that alibaba did well. We are in great shape. Alibaba did well, everything is good. With the exception of mobile eye and go pro, the news was all bad. Apple was such a buy. No one wanted to touch it. Alibaba, you take 92 and 68. This stock can trade down to around 84, 83. Those guys will come in and buy it more. You give up on alibaba you, give up on the bright light. In the meantime, it is incredible you can to the get any lift in things like wheat and corn. Yet somehow thats not reflected positively on markets. Our markets are so linked to other markets, we just go down. And the inversion news, which you are all over, aint helping no one this morning. It is very complicated. It is significant. The Obama Administration, jack lew treasury secretary announcing new rules to make it more difficult for u. S. Companies to cut tax deals striking these deals in terms of merging with a company domiciled overseas. Some get access to their offshore cash without paying u. S. Tax on it. We have looked at the tax code. There are a lot of obscure provisions in the tax code. We do not believe we have the authority to address this inversion question through administrative action if we did, we would be doing more. A lot has changed since then. Let me just say at the outset. Its very complex. In speaking to as many people as i could this morning and late last night, these actions are harsher and more severe than might have been anticipated, though frankly, many of the companies that have yet to invert may be in deals. We are talking about the two biggies. We havent heard from them yes. Everybody is trying to work through this and understand it. Medtronic deal, just to give you some sense what we are talking about and why it is important. Bernstein, if medtronic were not able to use its overseas cash to fund the deal that, would appear to be the case, this change could change the nearterm economics of the deal since it would most likely then need to borrow the same amount to fund the transaction, and raises the possibility medtronic might want to renegotiate the deal. We stress it remains uncertain whether that scenario plays out. As people are trying to understand what is at stake here. Ability to access overseas cash once you bring it back has been impacted here. Not earnings dripping where you put debt on the said companies. Its not going to hurt the multinationals which was a fear. It really is conceivably going to have a Significant Impact on those that are considering inversion, including the two companies i mentioned because it could change the economic balance of those deals. It doesnt mean they wont happen. I suggested there were many things could you do with the tax code. I think its i real write important to recognize is that everyone who is in the administration always has the ability to manipulate the tax code. Thats what they do. Youre supposed to need congressional action. That is something you hear about. That is what Alexander Hamilton wanted. Irs can decide tomorrow your suit is not deductible any more. Whatever they want. I am concerned this is the wrong day for it. Yesterday we had the beginning of what i felt was a terrifically hideous selloff in a lot of stocks. Today we come in and the one safe place was health care. Health care is where the action was yesterday. A lot of the Health Care Stocks were up yesterday. Hmos were up. Drug stocks are up. You look at this and im thinking, medtronic. Its a 1. 6 billion break on abbey shire. You cant recut that deal because its uk takeover law. You would have to sink it and start again. Also that one said legislation. Is this legislation . No. I dont know. Youve got isi and a bunch of other banks. Everybody is trying to make sense of this. Nobody is fully certain what is going on here. Astrazeneca is going down. Abbey is a great company. These are great companies. Its just that the european markets are so hideous that they are cause to take a breath and say wait a second. There is something bigger going on here. The bigger is the german numbers which came out last night. They show that this cold war with ukraine versus russia is beginning to really crush the economies. As we knew it would. We are going to have a lot more on inversions as things become a bit clearer because it was supposed to take effect immediately. People are unclear exactly what that means. Doesnt seem to apply to alreadyinverted companies. Only those considering it. Not really an issue for the burger king deal. Much more so for the two we mentioned. We are going to talk allergan, valent. And michael dell, what he thinks about the newlywub alibaba. Welcome back. We reported late yesterday after dow jones had a report, as well, on allergans interest in salex. That has ramifications for valeants offer to buy ackerman. Talks have been serious for a number of weeks. David pyatte seems to be taking a measured pace here. Nonetheless, they are of significance. There is interest in salix by allergan. It would be an allcash deal designed to close prior to the december 18 special meeting of allergan shareholders. What i can also tell you at this point is they are just beginning the discussions about price between allergan and salix. If they want to get something done, they need to get it done with relatively quickly, within the next week or two if they want to get that timing for closing the tender offer. Remember, thats got to be open for some period of time prior to the december 18 vote, which then makes that vote all about, do you want to get rid of directors who did a deal which you had no vote on . It would take up much of the Balance Sheet capacity of Allergan Valeant is relying on. It becomes unclear whether valeant would be able to raise a lot more money. This morning phil ekman comes out in a letter saying my undertaking the acquisition without a shareholder vote, you are breaching your commitment shareholders would have a vote. Im a fan of david pyott. Does it make sense to have a gastro . This is a pure defense maneuver wall street loves. All the research said this would be a natural fit. Allergan stock would go much higher. There is another bidder underneath. I find it amusing, and im propyott. It is an already inverted company. This i do not have reporting on so im relying on others. There was not interest from allergan, but they are still out there. I dont know whether these talks with salix motivate activists to become more aggressive or offer a price allergan would consider. We shall see. A salix deal would go a long way to preventing valeant from being successful. And the deal drops out. Salix can walk away from its cosmo deal with nothing. Allergan is a buy. You have a deal with street lights, a 16 number on 2016. That would be too low. Ten times earnings with 11 grower. How can you not buy allergan . People say it was at 88 this time last year. Yes. They had genuine patent woes. Allergan is a buy. How about Cf Industries shares up sharply. The company is in merger talks with norways yari. It would have the biggest producer of nitrogen fertilizer. Yara, 36 owned by the norwegian government. Weve been talking seriously for three weeks. Structured as a true merger of equals. You split the board, you split the chairman and ceo. 50 50 shareholder. The respective market caps are such that it becomes impossible from that side of things. Im hearing the synergies are beyond what analysts might be projecting in such a combination. I hear is there a lot of momentum behind these talks. Yara is underlevered. You could combine the Balance Sheet more. I like this deal very much. I was worried about a down year for cf. I mentioned commodity decline. I was looking for a couple dollars less than 2014 than we would get in 2013. Why i like this deal, go to the Cf Industries website. You will see where their plants are. Plants in oklahoma and louisiana, where is oklahoma and louisiana . In the heart of natural gas land. What do you use for fertilizer . What is behind fertilizer . Its not gas. This country is filled with it. The Fertilizer Companies are all relocating here. This deal makes a ton of sense. I like it. Unclear from what i picked up is to where the combined company would be located in terms of its not an inversion, so to speak, but they could become a foreign company. Right. These are the good vikings. These guys win. They win. Well see if that deal happens. They were once adversaries. Yara was the white knight. They had to up their bid. They obviously dont like each other. Now they do. New ceo at cf. Also on the social issues could become a bit easier. If you are in the fertilizer business, you need to be located in louisiana, oklahoma. I suggest that the norwegians start learning a drawl. Got it. Up next, weve got cramers mad dash as we count down to the opening bell. One more look at the futures. Coming off a 0. 18 drop in the s p. 1. 4 drop in the nasdaq. Weve got a lot more squawk on the street after this. We needed 30 new hires for our call center. Im spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast . Go to ziprecruiter. 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Most companies would kill for this rally. Nobody is going to buy it at 96 a share, are they . Take profits. I agree with citi. Sell clorox right now. Just sell it. Get that 110 bid from unilever, sold to you. Im taking down numbers from unilever just thinking about buying clorox. This is going to drive you crazy. Bed bath and beyond saying this is the most Amazon Company on earth. William blair comes out today, downgrades buy to hold. You are a research analyst. You know you downgrade it. Do you think thats done idly . You think the guy says today is a good day to downgrade . It reports after close. How bad is it going to be . They have great cash. Every time i mentioned before it goes down, talk about private equity. You talk about the tooth fairy and other illusions ive had in periods of my life. I dont want to put in the pe. Down graded on a day of reporting is usually not bullish. Good thing to know. Or else you are a silly analyst. You dont want to be a penguin. You would like to be listen, if he turns out to be right, tomorrow well laud him for having had the guts to make a call prior. Exactly right. Tomorrow well praise it or Marie Antionette the guy. Let him eat gateau, partner. Sounds good. [ male announcer ] once, there was a man who found a magic seashell. It told him what was happening on the Trading Floor in real time. The shell brought him great fame. But then, one day, he noticed that everybody could have a magic seashell. [ indistinct talking ] [ male announcer ] right there in their Trading Platform. So the magic shell went back to being a. Shell. Get live squawks right in your Trading Platform with thinkorswim from td ameritrade. You are watching cnbc squawk on the street. Opening bell will be ringing in about a minute. What is the key to your market today . Not necessarily a stock. Yahoo. Getting 5 billion after taxes. Has a giant stake in alibaba. Here is a Company Valued at minus ten. Youve got guys like dan niles saying they are basically incompetent fools who dont know anything. This is a company with actual earnings power with a ceo that will be given a gigantic check to buy back stock. Where does it say yahoo is a fine yus 10 stock. I could go with apple, too. There is the opening bell for this tuesday. A Banking Group in colombia and south america. I always liked colombia. Fibrocell science at the nasdaq. Carnival raised its full year forecast, as well. Carnival results being helped by a jump in lastminute bobbi ibo. Increased onboard spending. When we hear fuel prices go down, they decline 3. 5 for carnival. I thought it was interesting to see Continental Europe strong yield. Asia shipped a lot of boats there. This is a major, major bull market going on right now in cruise lines. Theres been great consolidation, too. Its a win, it goes much higher. I said friday you should buy carnival and its not done. On my screen my eyes tend to bigger names than technology, whether apple, facebook, ebay, yahoo, twitter, all which are down this morning. Yahoo down more. Twitter has been giving it up, as well. Does this negative tone in some of these big mega cap names continue on the down side in the nasdaq . A lot of tech is europe. Europe is the biggest danger zone. You need to wake up one day and see that ukraines got a bumper zone in there. Ukraine joins eu but not nato. When do you that, all these stocks will reverse. Many of these companies have gigantic exposure to europe. Twitter can be a buy. Why . Twitter is in major profit mode. Last week we had peter teal tell me which im a complete moron, which i always enjoy. My mom used to call me a moron. Then again, she was family. It was easier to take. Peter teal wants to call me a moron, thats fine. Except hes not a sibling or parent. Hes on tv and we are kind d kindred. I have no grudges. We know people. We can take care of him. Im much more in that lincoln thing. Much more forgiving. Yeah, like bishop tutu. I think noto changed the inflation. I think twitter is a buy on the way down. It is on the way down. Its not like im saying let me be Butcher Block for you, throw me a knife. I do like twitter and facebook. They are coming down. They are coming down because theyve got a little profit taking going. Your Cf Industries is the only green i see. Apple is having so many good things happen right now. You need to see apple stalize. Then you need to see ya hoo stabilize. Then come back to twitter or facebook right here. Want to come back to inversions, specific to the enormous deal between medtronic and covidien. Where is covidien based again . They are irish. How many workers do they have in that build iing. Meg terrell has a statement. We will release any impact following complete review. When i spoke to st. Jude. St. Jude was upset by this because it was such a competitive coup. Jack lew doing the right thing in terms of trying to make the competition be leveled again. If you already inverted, its not level for anybody who hasnt. Bob willen. Said nothing can be done. We are a hapless, pitiful, helpless giant in the face of the tax code. Who said that . I dont know. Its a variation of nixon. Alexander hamilton . Willen this morning in a note released said he doesnt believe the new rules should invoke the provision of the med

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