Investors looking to build off the markets first win for the new year. If you still want more mark lazry says energy debt could return 30 . Mixed bag for two retailers. Family dollar missed numbers, costco ahead of numbers. Outside of business, a live update on that manhunt in paris. Futures are up sharply as stocks aim for a second day of gains after the s p snapped a fiveday losing skid wednesday. Oil prices on the rise. All ahead of tomorrows big jobs number. Jobless claims did fall last week to 294,000. Jim, its more about costco today and chipotle at 700. Urban comps going positive. Raw costs coming down. At the same time more traffic, more larger ticket prices. People are spending again and i think thats the theme. I think there is way too much being talked about expenditures in oil patch are coming down. That icons traited in texas, louisiana and north dakota. Sunflower oil used to be the big oil in that state. Lets not lose sight of the fact disposable income 1,000 more in everybodys pocket is being spent at retail. After jc penney earlier in the week adp, is this the moment we are starting to realize what this fall in energy is meaning . Yes. If oil takes out 47 today and it could go down again because there is way too much being pumped, all those good things will be reversed. The hedge funds say if oil goes down sharply, you have to sell these stocks. Its dumb as a bag of hammers, but i respect their ability to think about anything smart because they are machines. Its 2001 space odyssey versus how. Weve been talking about the benefits of lower gas line prices reflected in the likes of retailers, casual dining. We are going to see bankruptcies and see companies missing their Interest Payments that may send queasy feelings through the market. Ive got a lot of emerging markets we know are going to be struggling. The rising dollar is hurting them badly. In europe they can benefit from the Lower Oil Prices but not as much. The euro keeps going down. Heres some interesting numbers. Last night sanchez and eagleford planned to spend 3 billion. They cut their capex to 2 billion. They raised Production Forecast 16 to 20 . Sanchez cutting its budget 1. 15 billion to 450 million raising Production Growth 40 . Continental cut 4. 6 billion to 2. 7 billion. They raised Production Growth. This is an incredible anomaly. They are spending less, focused on properties and spending more. If you think oil will stabilize, it doesnt make sense. There is no place to put it. People wonder what is the play in energy . His suggestion is debt. Here is lazry on kwauk this morning. Last year if you remember it all everybody talked about oil staying around 100 120. Now everybody saying its going to be around 50 or 60 this year. Next year 70 to 90. If thats correct, everything we are buying at 60 cents today is going to be worth par. If you just do the math youll make somewhere around 30 returns over the course of next two years. Too dangerous for your average investor . Oh my god, yes. Yeah. This shouldnt be said. Be careful. I dont disagree with any of the things you are saying. I think there will be major bankruptcies. If oil goes down to 40. We kept hearing 50 is the number. We passed through it. He was talking about 56. That is way too rosy. If you are a hedge fund you might get in and get out. Someone told me youve got to gee by puerto rican municipal bonds, its a cantmiss. It missed. High yield debt market is a very strange animal. Its illiquid. You see commercials, up good night to be in emerging debt. Its way too dangerous. Every time it correlates or you get screwed, for lack of a better term i think we can use that . There are stocks that will do well. What ive been hearing more often, guys taking a look at the equity side of the equation thinking about a cashrich oil company that is not in danger in any way and its stock has been down sharply, perhaps for the right reasons. Is it a time to step into the shares, not the debt . I think that is a nice call. My problem is there is a piece today in the papers about how some of these companies have to cut dividends. The guys were pumping like mad. They are going to cut capex. This is the wrong place to start speculating in oil. It is the right place to continue to buy chipotle. Its up a lot. Its going to be an alltime high. 700 premarket. Citi takes their target to 809 . Beef costs are coming down. They use natural organic. A lot of their costs are going to come down. These Companies Use to heat their buildings and stuff. You are not done with this group. I would like to have pulled back when oil starts going back down again, people are going to sell those stocks and then you buy them. Lets move on to retail. Family dollar did miss estimates with fiscal First Quarter results including 4 decline in comp store sales. Retailer says the quarter was challenging. That company in the process of converting to a strategy featuring everyday low prices. Costco beating expectations. Its total samestore sales were up 3 in december including a 5 jump in the usa. Costco strong with those december numbers. On Family Dollar the point is its getting acquired by dollar tree or by Dollar General if they get it together on the antitrust front. Are going to see that stock hang in there today. It does increase the down side. They get an opportunity to vote 23rd of january. Dollar tree can demand they hold the vote if they want to. Will it raise going in . Then there is some who say things are getting so bad there, theres going to be more upside for Dollar General or dollar tree when they start to run this thing. Thats the point. There is a boiler plate. Some people have to do the securities before we Start Talking about it . There is a boiler plate line going through Family Dollar releases. First quarter of fiscal year 2015 was very challenging. As we continue our transition from promotional merchandise to everyday low prices. This has to be the only retailer i know experiencing a promotional environment with gross margin pressure. I used to love these guys. Whoever takes them over if you and i took them over if we got in the dollar store business we could fix this. The only Silver Lining one analyst says is december comps improved through the two year and month, although two year and month was still negative. Thats been the running theme. Aro today down 9 but down 15 last year. American eagle down 2 on fewer promotions. Urban up 4 on a 3 estimate. When everyone wrote off urban. Anthropology is doing quite well. Weve got to go to Family Dollar and find out what the heck is going on. What are the promotional opportunities available to us . Either way, dollar tree or potentially Dollar General will own this thing. And there is so much work to be done. Every other retailer i talk to the figure you mentioned at the top of the show the cold weather, someone comes out and says youve got to buy deckers, of course. This is ugg weather. If tom brady wins this weekend and im not guaranteeing that he is the chief spokesman for ugg. The ravens win in new england, im not maybe you sell ugg today. If braisy loses, you buy it back. Did you see what brady said about playing in the cold this weekend . Im a blanking machine. Hes unafraid. We didnt mention costco which had five weeks up 5 18 weeks up 6 comp stores. They keep it going. Im getting numbers from jack moore. Family dollar the 2013 Holiday Season was challenged. Third quarter 14, our results continue but the economic challenge facing our core customer. Its a promotional environment intensified. Its time to go. Can you imagine . Get less quarters press relief. Is the jets general manager running this company in his spare time . He was doing something in his spare time. Unbelievable. On a much more serious note it is a day of mourning in france after 12 people were killed in yesterdays shootings of the offices of a french magazine. The manhunt continues today for two of the suspects in that attack. Hadley gamble is in paris with more. Reporter good morning, carl. A couple of blocks away from where we are standing is where the terrorist attacks took place. We heard from francis Prime Minister earlier today. He was saying he is worried the militants involved in yesterdays attack could strike again. I want to update you now. We are hearing reports on that manhunt for two suspects two brothers. They showed their pictures overnight. Apparently there are reports they were spotted at a gas station in north france about an hour outside of paris. I have to update you on another developing story. We heard from the french prosecutors office, hes been telling reporters that what happened this morning in the south of paris, a shootout where a policeman lost her life and one other was wounded. They are labeling that aterror attack. There has been no link to the attacks we saw yesterday. Again, another terror attack in paris in the last 24 hours. That makes two of them. This is a city under attack. Hadley gamble thanks. Reports they will turn off the lights at the eiffel tower tonight in memory of the victims from yesterday. When we come back a double dose of news. Google was not hoping for. Well fill you in. An Angel Investor who says yahoo would be making a huge mistake if it fires marissa meyer. Take one more look at the futures this morning. The bulls continue to regroup. More squawk on the street. Rtgage shouldnt be a problem your credit is in pretty good shape. Pretty good . I know i have a 798 fico score thanks to the tools and help on experian. Com. Kaboom. Well, i just have a few other questions. Chuck, the only other question you need to ask is, what else can you do for me . Ill just take a water. Get your credit swagger on. Become a member of experian credit tracker and find out your fico score powered by experian. Fico scores are used in 90 of credit decisions. For over 60,000 california foster children nights can feel long and lonely. I miss my sister. I miss my old school. I miss my room. I dont want special treatment. I just wanna feel normal. To help, sleep train is collecting pajamas for foster children, big and small. Bring your gift to any sleep train and help make a Foster Childs night a little cozier. Not everyone can be a Foster Parent but anyone can help a foster child. Shares of google downgraded this morning going to hold to buy. They do not see significant upside to the shares despite tremendous respect for the company and management team. Stat counter says google share of search traffic declined to 75. 3 in december down from 77. 5 in the previous month. Stifle talking about unlikely multiple expansion. Maturing core business. The best days may be behind them, in their words. My Charitable Trust sold google the other day because they are spending a lot. Didnt sell it all. If they monetize youtube stock will go higher. Facebook, another stock my trust owns taking a lot of share here. Google 17 times earnings. When you back out the cash that, multiple is shrinking. I dont want to write them off. If they decide tomorrow lets make a lot of money, they can do it. They can. They are dealing with this idea this analyst used to be at morgan stanley, pretty well respected. He is. Dealing with slowing search growth. That move from desktop to mobile which monetization rates are less. Secular changes taking place. Theres not like there is governance here or chance of return of capital. You are looking for the opportunities in the core business and or development of new core businesses if you will. To your point, this atlas product from facebook is something i hear about from a number of people. They are going to be able to provide advertisers with a set of analytics on the respected people across their devices. Facebook is starting and they cite they are taking 28 of incremental Global Digital ad dollars versus 22 in 2013. People laughed when they did instagram, 1 billion. People laughed at whats app. 7 million users now. These guys are spending a lot, but being more disciplined, i think. Think so . I do. They are trying to think three, five years out. In profits. Google is trying to think three, five years out in wonders. Wonders per share. Good way to put it. Stifle downgrading trip and priceline. A lot of price competition. One other thing important to mention, these guys have massive currency exposure. Carl mentioned the travel area with that euro the dollar getting stronger. Keep that in mind. We talked about it a number of times. Suddenly it seems to be coming into the consciousness of many investors. Google ebay these companies have a lot going on overseas. They are going to get hurt. How the market reacts is an open question. I dont think youll see multiple compression, but youll see lower numbers. I dont know how im able to look fondly about my fallen days of my father. He was 92 and followed us closely. He told me literally on his deathbed, be careful of that priceline. That guy from trivago with the blue eyes is killing him. I think he shaved recently. He looks cleaner. He said watch that guy. That guy is going to hurt priceline. You know what . That could be true. When we get back well get cramers mad dash. Take one more look at the premarket. Jim doesnt like up opens. Flight opened up 163 on the dow. More squawk on the street. I take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. Because it gives me. Zero heartburn prilosec otc. The number 1 doctorrecommended frequent heartburn medicine for 9 straight years. One pill each morning. 24 hours. Zero heartburn. In my world, wall isnt a street. Return on investment isnt the only return im looking forward to. For some every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. Which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from investing for retirement to saving for college. Our commitment to current and former military members and their families is without equal. Start investing with as little as fifty dollars. Got eight minutes to go tilling opening bell. Oil in two ways. A lot of people saying one of the big winners of Lower Oil Prices are beer companies. There are very few earnings. Constellation reported today, corona. Blew the numbers away. Youll see the stock up gigantic. People will say people are going out more spending more on beer. This stock is the juggernaut. They were the winner in the Justice Department divestiture. If you bought it on the day they had the plan to meet the Justice Department objections to the original deal you are looking good. Last night i was hosting and our door kept opening. I had to buy everybody rounds of corona, had to buy them because the door kept opening. More business for constellation. Just get everybody drunk quickly then when wont notice. No one is going out anyway. Goldilocks left the building. Citi note this morning, downgrading you cant get in front of the oils. They are selling sell oasis, marathon. Now, jim . Really . Anadarko chesapeake. This thing called oil is going down in price. You have said this may be i remember you saying this may be when everybody gives up we will buy the companies that have good yields or companies with good Production Growth. I think a concho you get them increasing increasing. Everybody has to do with citi did. They are all sells. Until everyone decides i cant take it any more. When they say that i will say they cant take any more its time to buy. We havent gotten there. By no means at all. Eog they are sticking by. That has to be downgraded. Well watch the oil stocks as we do every day. A lot of other things to talk about. Opening bell next. You are watching cnbc squawk on the street live from the Financial Capital of the world. The opening bell in just under three minutes. Interesting day shaping up. Bullish action in the premarket for the second day in a row. Oil relatively stable. Yields relatively stable coming off those fed minutes yesterday. A lot of anecdotal evidence that Holiday Spending was pretty good consumer is maybe using a little of their discretionary income. I think a lot of whats happening is the sense germany is blinking. Talking about maybe doing something with greece. I think a lot of people feel merkel is out of step with some of the tragedy that happened in france. Meaning its time to start helping. One is about money and one business real life. Im saying the carryover from europe. Oil is ticking negative. The machines will sell stocks. You might get an opportunity here. The question still is a lot will be the focus on the ecb on the 22nd and what we get in terms of real details about quantitative easing program. What will they buy . Will they be buying anything and everything . How big will it be . I would argue rates there will certainly be important as it relates to our ten year as well. And when our Interest Rates go down, the machine sells stocks. There are hedge funds that short term field when Interest Rates go down and oil goes down, thats a sign of worldwide demand collapse. A few days later we get urban out fitters showing good numbers, jcpenney and people buy the retailers. The next day people rethink their sales. Its different people. Its the hedge funds taking quick action and the individuals and mutual funds saying this opportunity. Sets us up for a jobs number tomorrow. Claims today, 294. Adp was good. Typically under counts bls. You are going to see claims. Remember there are going to be layoffs. There are real layoffs coming in texas. You get a halliburton, baker hughes they dont need all these people. When you see this tremendous Capital Expenditure budget thats people. You just dont need as many people. The rig count will be 20 off their highs in a couple of months. Go back to that great Conference Call they told you below 70, its all bets are off. We are way below 70. What do you make of the idea after the fed says we might have said the word patient but that doesnt mean we wont height and with inflation under the target markets not convulsing on that. Its interesting. Every time the fed minutes have come out the last few years there was a big trade. People ignored it. A bigg