Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20150911 : vimarsa

August ppi unchanged and oil down more than a dollar has goldman says its bear case for crude is 20 a barrel. Futures in the red as we look ahead to the fed next week. And the new oil order, goldman gets bearish on crude prices. And kroger out with results of beat. The stock is moving higher in the premarket. First up, Oil Prices Falling after goldman put out a note saying the Global Supply glut could push the price down to 20 a barrel. Cheaper gas offsets the price of your food. Futures are getting lower as we wrap up a volatile market week. And david tepper said hes not as bullish as he could be on stocks. Im more bullish. Its valuation. Today the stock market on, call it, next year estimates is 15 times earnings. The earnings yield in the stock market is something approaching 7 . This isnt a 2 slightly more than a 2 tenyear environment. Thats about the widest spread. You can earn a much higher and the expectation over time should be that the equity yields will increase as Companies Report over time. Report higher profitability. Interesting weve heard from a lot of the big names this week alone. Buffett, lee cooperman, tepper and now ackman. Everyone saying the economy, those valuations are all of a sudden becoming a big concern. Interestingly enough, we are looking at an up week, and if we stay flat or positive, this week could be one of the best in several weeks for u. S. Stocks even though its holiday shortened. If the dow closes the week higher, its ten consecutive weeks for the up down, up down. Volatility. We are going into a big week on the fed, and how to play the markets ahead of that. Joining us now, president of wells fargo, and Department Head of u. S. Economy at bank of America Merrill lynch. Daryl, how do you take positions ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week . Every fed meeting is anticipated, this one even more so. Well, certainly we are only five days away, and the fed and the markets dont know where its going. If you look at the u. S. Economy, you now have more people employed, making more money, producing more goods and services, and spending more money than ever before in absolute dollar terms. If thats not a recipe to start bringing the fed back to the table, im not sure what is. Michelle, you think there will be a 25 basis point hike next week. Why do you think that when the market isnt convinced . We think so. Obviously, its a tough call. I would say just look at the data. We have seen a considerable amount of improvement in terms of labor market. Gdp growth tracking higher. I think where it becomes uncomfortable is how the fed are thinking about the risks, the risks from abroad which have become a lot more apparent, and then also the distortions or the volatility in the markets, how uncomfortable will the fed be starting a hiking cycle given market reaction. I dont get it. They have a great excuse not to do anything. Theyre missing on their inflation mandate. We just got ppi this morning. Unchanged. There isnt price pressure in this economy. Youre right, and remember, the feds primary mandate is Financial Stability on top of the Interest Rates and certainly inflation. So i think they really our estimates still tip toward later in the year and not september, but to michelles point, its a tough call. They will be very aware of the risks because when you come off of a zero point, if you go to 25 or 50 basis points and then the yield curve flattens, they could have to go backbackwards. Thats the last thing they want to do. We keep going back to whats the harm in skipping this time if they change their minds or decide they regret their decision j th decision, they only have to wait seven weeks. Thats true, but i think the communication becomes difficult. The fed does not want the Market Pricing out rate hikes if they dont go in settlement. Thats a risk. And they dont want to seem like theyre tied to what the market is telling them to do. I think the discussion would be inflation is low. The data recently showed continued low inflation, and perhaps theyre getting uncomfortable about that. We could see that they revise down their forecast from mediumterm inflation, and maybe that justifies a slower path of hikes even if they begin in september. Whats interesting is he used to come in in recent weeks in the morning and look at china and japan and europe, and we would follow. Europe is down now three quarters of a per september. This week its been different. The u. S. Isnt going in the same direction as europe and china, some of the asian markets. Why is that . Its a good signal. Were breaking the correlation. Were not, certainly to the point about Lower Oil Prices, you get parts of germany and europe and parts of asia that are very affected by the prices. Us, not so much. Were looking more at to the earlier point on squawk box this morning with bill, valuations are reasonable. The sweet spot for equity is long term are 2 to 3 gdp growth and 1. 5 to 2. 5 inflation. We are there right now. We dont think the highs are in for this recovery. Wed be tilting more toward cyclical sectors than defensive sectors at this point. Wed love to get your take on this goldman note today. They argue weve never seen supply grow and the dollar increase like this together ever before. And when you couple the access to capital, the only way were going to flush this out, this supply, is to go to Storage Capacity and where everything comes into the basically your cash costs and thats 20, they say. Does that make sense . I think, obviously, were seen Commodity Prices come down at a rate that surprised a lot of people starting last summer. Theres risks that we can see a further drop in Commodity Prices. I like to think about the drivers on the demand side because i dont have as much expertise on the supply side. We have seen emerging markets slow. Theres concerns about further weakness in china. If that showed through and em looks weaker into next year, you could see further downward pressure on Commodity Prices. Chevron got an upgrade today that well talk about later, but is it time for the Energy Stocks to rally and even if Oil Continues to go down, shouldnt you be looking at the companies at these levels . Well, we think the solution for Lower Oil Prices is Lower Oil Prices. You have to work through that excess supply dynamic. 12 months to 18 months into th initial decline is doing that. Its probably early in the Energy Sector because the earnings lag the moving in the commodity. Goldman, that is their bear case. If we get to 20 oil, something is off the rails. China or were in an inflationary type move down. We dont see that as a base case. They dont either. The their point is the possibility is increasing for 20, but it doesnt mean its the base case, and i think investors need to be aware of that. I think there will be a point where energy looks attractive, maybe just not quite yet. So you like the cyclical sector. Youre talking consumer discretionary, technology. And we like industrials. We think industrials because of growing global command, particularly in europe and parts of asia can do well and valuations are cheap. Theyve been beaten up hard lately. Whats going to be the most important data point that would signal they will raise rates before the end of the year. Continue to look at jobs. If the next few job reports after the september meeting come in strong, above 200,000, if the Unemployment Rate continues to fall, its possible were at below 5 at the end of the year. And i would also listen to fed language, the fed communication. One of the things fed officials have told us is that although inflation is low, they think a lot of the slowness in inflation is transitory due to external factors, and theyre continuing to look at whats happening in terms of slack models. If employment comes down, theyll be confident inflation will turn higher in the future. Thanks for joining us on the markets and the economy. Kroger did just report earnings in the last half hour. 44 cents a share beating wall streets estimates. The biggest grocery chain is walmart. Kroger is the biggest by sales if you take out other items. This is the 47th quarter in a row that kroger has managed to grow samestore super market sales. Guidance point, took it up to 4 and 5 for fiscal 15. Kroger continues to come out ahead of wall street expectations which have gotten pretty high. This is a stock thats up 35 over the last 12 months. Its hit a little bit lately on the market turbulence. Still up 10 this year. Wall street journal put one of their stories out this morning saying that perhaps its fairly valued. Investors dont think so yet. The stock is up in the premarket 8 . It just continues to be. I know this is one of the cramer favorites as well. They have come out of nowhere, and look at that chart. You said it was one of the most beautiful schacharts to look at. It shoots higher. We have a few of those where its a straight line, mar yacht, disney for a long time. This is one of them, but as the journal says, a lot of what theyve done and the way theyve outpaced their peers has been priced in. Its going higher. They initiated a stock with a saying its hard to find a defensive growth company. When we come back, later on this morning, why they are upping price targets on am amazon to 705. Take a look at the futures here as we look to open slightly to the downside. A lot more squawk on the street live from post nine when we return. You 50 percent more data. Thats 15 gigs of data for the price of 10. And get 300 dollars credit for every line you switch to at t. Here at td ameritrade, they work wow, that was random. Random . No its all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3 12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. This happens every third tuesday. We have Pattern Recognition Technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. Theres no way to predict that. For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. Holding an annual charity day in remembrance of employees cantor lost 14 years ago today. Mary thompson . Is in new york with the ceo. Reporter thank you for that. Nice to see you. Its become an annual tradition. The first thing i want to ask you, you were ceo on 9 11. What do you think of when you wake up in the morning on 9 11 . Whats the first thing that krosdss your mind . I really, unfortunately, think about it a lot in the days leading up to it. By this morning, im ready. I always take my kids to school. Because thats why i get to talk to you 14 years ago, i was taking my son to his first day of kindergarten. Thats the most important thing to me. It saved my life. And then i come to work, and im ready to sort of turn it into something positive. It starts very difficult. If i didnt have today as charity day, id probably curl up in a ball. This way i get to do good. You took 9 11 as a source of motivation. What would you tell other people who are faced with a catastrophic event like you were at 9 11. What would you tell them is the most important thing when they look to rebuild their lives or companys . I couldnt change who i was. Im a businessman. What i felt i could try to do is turn that business incentive into something that could do good. So we donate 25 of everything we made to the families so i could be motivated and say i need to help the families but i cant them in any other way other than financially, because thats what im good at, so we rebuilt the company in order to help the companies. That was the most important thing to me. If you asked me a couple of times after 9 11, i would say the number. How much money were going to give the families. At the fiveyear mark when wed giving them 180 million, it was extraordinary, but it was all of their hearts and souls pouring out to try to do the right thing by the families but also to rebuild the company. You lost 658 employees on that day, but you also give their families something else. How many children of former employees do you have working here now . We have 51 children of people who lost their lives in 9 11. If you think about that, that means their moms said its okay for the young men and women to come and work at Cantor Fitzgerald. Think about their opinions. You know 22yearolds opinions. For them to come work here is great. And we want to train them. We want to help them have great careers. Sometimes they call us and say can you help us and get a job on the buy side and help us with your clients. Were always trying to help them. Theyre a part of our soul. We have twin girls working here which is extraordinary. It must be wonderful to see. I want to ask you about business, changing the subject, because its a very volatile market. How are you responding and what are your clienting saying . We love volatility. We dont like quiet fritds days august. The current markets in china, its been softer than the people anticipated. They put out nice stratiatistic. Commodity command now, oil is down. I think the underlying economy will continue to grow slowly. I think europe has more challenges than we do, but effectively, were in for a long slog. Great for real estate. Real estate loves low Interest Rates for long periods of time. Reporter what are you thinking the fed is going to do next week . I think the fed, theres lots of talk that the feds going to make its move. I would say its less than 50 50. But a 25 basis point move to us, that means on 1 million, if you put it in for that, you can buy coffee for you and your friends. This is not really an Interest Rate. Well talk about it a lot in the press that they moved Interest Rates but if they only raise them 25 basis points for the next six months, thats really low. You have to keep it in the overall perspective. Theyre going nowhere. Theyll probably make a move to say theyre off the dime, but theyre not more than just a dime. Back to charity day. Make your pitch to your clients right now. What do you give if they make the trade here . So we give every single dollar, all our employees waive their days pay. We give any business we do today to 150 different charities. We give it to people who help others take care of theirselves. You can go to cantorrelief. Org and donate also. The market is 12 million. Thats what cantor raised last year. Youre looking to beat it this year. Weve been speaking to the ceo. Thank you. Back to you. Thank you, mary. As we await the opening bell, taking a look at futures on the last day of the trading week. One that could see the best week for stocks in eight. It looks like a down open. S p down 9, nasdaq down 22. 5. More straight ahead. Im watson. And today hundreds of companies are putting me to work. Im teaching watson to help your vet speak dog. Youre a dog, right . Im teaching watson to help you make healthy choices. Im teaching watson to help design a vacation around your personality. Dont judge. Im teaching watson to answer endless questions. How big is infinity . Where do babies come from . Why cant i have chocolate for breakfast . Im watson and im ready to work with you. under loud music this is the place. Sustainable tea tree eir boil and kale. Ade from you, my friend, recognize when a trend has reached critical mass. Yes, when others focus on one thing, you see whats coming next. You see opportunity. Thats what a type e does. And so it begins. With e trades investing insights center, you can spot trends before they become trendy. E trade. Opportunity is everywhere. So youre a Small Business expert from at t . Yeah, give me a problem and ive got the solution. Well, we have 30 years of customer records. Our cloud can keep them safe and accessible anywhere. My drivers dont have time to fill out forms. Tablets. Keep it all digital. Were looking to double our deliveries. Our fleet apps will find the fastest route. Oh, and your boysenberry apple scones smell about done. Ahh, youre good. I like to bake. Add new Business Services with at t and get up to 500 in total savings. Were about to have a moment of silence here. 9 25 is the time the exchange is going to have a one minute moment of silence. Not the first one of the morning. Already at 8 46 eastern time the white house held a moment of silence with the president and the first lady. Played taps. That is the moment that american flight 11 flew into the north tower. The 767 that was going from boston to los angeles on september 11th of 2001. This is a tough day to remember. But we go through the exercise because its important. If you have forgotten, nearly 3,000 people killed. 2600 at the World Trade Center and the surrounding areas. 125 at the pentagon. 246 on the airplanes themselves, and on a day where, again, the newspapers write another story about the incredible resurgence of lower downtown. Population of Lower Manhattan on 9 11 was 20,000 people. Today its 70,000 people. Is that amazing . Yeah. Much of the trade center site has finally been rebuilt, but were dealing with the ramifications of that day every day. Even more so in many of the things that we worry about and deal with as citizens of our great country. My thoughts go back to the day, having been on the air with mark haines who was truly brilliant on that morning, as awful as it was. And were looking at the live picture. There was a ceremony at the plaza at the september 11th memorial. Heres the moment of silence. [ silence ] [ silence ] [ silence ] while every business is unique, everyone is looking for ways to cut expenses. And thats where pg es Online Business Energy Checkup tool can really help. You can use it to track your Actual Energy use. Find rebates that make equipment upgrades more affordable. Even develop a Customized Energy plan for your company. Think of it as a way to take more control over your operating costs. And yet another Energy Saving opportunity from pg e. Find new ways to save energy and money with pg es Oil Prices Falling<\/a> after goldman put out a note saying the Global Supply<\/a> glut could push the price down to 20 a barrel. Cheaper gas offsets the price of your food. Futures are getting lower as we wrap up a volatile market week. And david tepper said hes not as bullish as he could be on stocks. Im more bullish. Its valuation. Today the stock market on, call it, next year estimates is 15 times earnings. The earnings yield in the stock market is something approaching 7 . This isnt a 2 slightly more than a 2 tenyear environment. Thats about the widest spread. You can earn a much higher and the expectation over time should be that the equity yields will increase as Companies Report<\/a> over time. Report higher profitability. Interesting weve heard from a lot of the big names this week alone. Buffett, lee cooperman, tepper and now ackman. Everyone saying the economy, those valuations are all of a sudden becoming a big concern. Interestingly enough, we are looking at an up week, and if we stay flat or positive, this week could be one of the best in several weeks for u. S. Stocks even though its holiday shortened. If the dow closes the week higher, its ten consecutive weeks for the up down, up down. Volatility. We are going into a big week on the fed, and how to play the markets ahead of that. Joining us now, president of wells fargo, and Department Head<\/a> of u. S. Economy at bank of America Merrill<\/a> lynch. Daryl, how do you take positions ahead of the Federal Reserve<\/a> meeting next week . Every fed meeting is anticipated, this one even more so. Well, certainly we are only five days away, and the fed and the markets dont know where its going. If you look at the u. S. Economy, you now have more people employed, making more money, producing more goods and services, and spending more money than ever before in absolute dollar terms. If thats not a recipe to start bringing the fed back to the table, im not sure what is. Michelle, you think there will be a 25 basis point hike next week. Why do you think that when the market isnt convinced . We think so. Obviously, its a tough call. I would say just look at the data. We have seen a considerable amount of improvement in terms of labor market. Gdp growth tracking higher. I think where it becomes uncomfortable is how the fed are thinking about the risks, the risks from abroad which have become a lot more apparent, and then also the distortions or the volatility in the markets, how uncomfortable will the fed be starting a hiking cycle given market reaction. I dont get it. They have a great excuse not to do anything. Theyre missing on their inflation mandate. We just got ppi this morning. Unchanged. There isnt price pressure in this economy. Youre right, and remember, the feds primary mandate is Financial Stability<\/a> on top of the Interest Rates<\/a> and certainly inflation. So i think they really our estimates still tip toward later in the year and not september, but to michelles point, its a tough call. They will be very aware of the risks because when you come off of a zero point, if you go to 25 or 50 basis points and then the yield curve flattens, they could have to go backbackwards. Thats the last thing they want to do. We keep going back to whats the harm in skipping this time if they change their minds or decide they regret their decision j th decision, they only have to wait seven weeks. Thats true, but i think the communication becomes difficult. The fed does not want the Market Pricing<\/a> out rate hikes if they dont go in settlement. Thats a risk. And they dont want to seem like theyre tied to what the market is telling them to do. I think the discussion would be inflation is low. The data recently showed continued low inflation, and perhaps theyre getting uncomfortable about that. We could see that they revise down their forecast from mediumterm inflation, and maybe that justifies a slower path of hikes even if they begin in september. Whats interesting is he used to come in in recent weeks in the morning and look at china and japan and europe, and we would follow. Europe is down now three quarters of a per september. This week its been different. The u. S. Isnt going in the same direction as europe and china, some of the asian markets. Why is that . Its a good signal. Were breaking the correlation. Were not, certainly to the point about Lower Oil Prices<\/a>, you get parts of germany and europe and parts of asia that are very affected by the prices. Us, not so much. Were looking more at to the earlier point on squawk box this morning with bill, valuations are reasonable. The sweet spot for equity is long term are 2 to 3 gdp growth and 1. 5 to 2. 5 inflation. We are there right now. We dont think the highs are in for this recovery. Wed be tilting more toward cyclical sectors than defensive sectors at this point. Wed love to get your take on this goldman note today. They argue weve never seen supply grow and the dollar increase like this together ever before. And when you couple the access to capital, the only way were going to flush this out, this supply, is to go to Storage Capacity<\/a> and where everything comes into the basically your cash costs and thats 20, they say. Does that make sense . I think, obviously, were seen Commodity Prices<\/a> come down at a rate that surprised a lot of people starting last summer. Theres risks that we can see a further drop in Commodity Prices<\/a>. I like to think about the drivers on the demand side because i dont have as much expertise on the supply side. We have seen emerging markets slow. Theres concerns about further weakness in china. If that showed through and em looks weaker into next year, you could see further downward pressure on Commodity Prices<\/a>. Chevron got an upgrade today that well talk about later, but is it time for the Energy Stocks<\/a> to rally and even if Oil Continues<\/a> to go down, shouldnt you be looking at the companies at these levels . Well, we think the solution for Lower Oil Prices<\/a> is Lower Oil Prices<\/a>. You have to work through that excess supply dynamic. 12 months to 18 months into th initial decline is doing that. Its probably early in the Energy Sector<\/a> because the earnings lag the moving in the commodity. Goldman, that is their bear case. If we get to 20 oil, something is off the rails. China or were in an inflationary type move down. We dont see that as a base case. They dont either. The their point is the possibility is increasing for 20, but it doesnt mean its the base case, and i think investors need to be aware of that. I think there will be a point where energy looks attractive, maybe just not quite yet. So you like the cyclical sector. Youre talking consumer discretionary, technology. And we like industrials. We think industrials because of growing global command, particularly in europe and parts of asia can do well and valuations are cheap. Theyve been beaten up hard lately. Whats going to be the most important data point that would signal they will raise rates before the end of the year. Continue to look at jobs. If the next few job reports after the september meeting come in strong, above 200,000, if the Unemployment Rate<\/a> continues to fall, its possible were at below 5 at the end of the year. And i would also listen to fed language, the fed communication. One of the things fed officials have told us is that although inflation is low, they think a lot of the slowness in inflation is transitory due to external factors, and theyre continuing to look at whats happening in terms of slack models. If employment comes down, theyll be confident inflation will turn higher in the future. Thanks for joining us on the markets and the economy. Kroger did just report earnings in the last half hour. 44 cents a share beating wall streets estimates. The biggest grocery chain is walmart. Kroger is the biggest by sales if you take out other items. This is the 47th quarter in a row that kroger has managed to grow samestore super market sales. Guidance point, took it up to 4 and 5 for fiscal 15. Kroger continues to come out ahead of wall street expectations which have gotten pretty high. This is a stock thats up 35 over the last 12 months. Its hit a little bit lately on the market turbulence. Still up 10 this year. Wall street journal put one of their stories out this morning saying that perhaps its fairly valued. Investors dont think so yet. The stock is up in the premarket 8 . It just continues to be. I know this is one of the cramer favorites as well. They have come out of nowhere, and look at that chart. You said it was one of the most beautiful schacharts to look at. It shoots higher. We have a few of those where its a straight line, mar yacht, disney for a long time. This is one of them, but as the journal says, a lot of what theyve done and the way theyve outpaced their peers has been priced in. Its going higher. They initiated a stock with a saying its hard to find a defensive growth company. When we come back, later on this morning, why they are upping price targets on am amazon to 705. Take a look at the futures here as we look to open slightly to the downside. A lot more squawk on the street live from post nine when we return. You 50 percent more data. Thats 15 gigs of data for the price of 10. And get 300 dollars credit for every line you switch to at t. Here at td ameritrade, they work wow, that was random. Random . No its all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3 12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. This happens every third tuesday. We have Pattern Recognition Technology<\/a> on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. Theres no way to predict that. For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. Holding an annual charity day in remembrance of employees cantor lost 14 years ago today. Mary thompson . Is in new york with the ceo. Reporter thank you for that. Nice to see you. Its become an annual tradition. The first thing i want to ask you, you were ceo on 9 11. What do you think of when you wake up in the morning on 9 11 . Whats the first thing that krosdss your mind . I really, unfortunately, think about it a lot in the days leading up to it. By this morning, im ready. I always take my kids to school. Because thats why i get to talk to you 14 years ago, i was taking my son to his first day of kindergarten. Thats the most important thing to me. It saved my life. And then i come to work, and im ready to sort of turn it into something positive. It starts very difficult. If i didnt have today as charity day, id probably curl up in a ball. This way i get to do good. You took 9 11 as a source of motivation. What would you tell other people who are faced with a catastrophic event like you were at 9 11. What would you tell them is the most important thing when they look to rebuild their lives or companys . I couldnt change who i was. Im a businessman. What i felt i could try to do is turn that business incentive into something that could do good. So we donate 25 of everything we made to the families so i could be motivated and say i need to help the families but i cant them in any other way other than financially, because thats what im good at, so we rebuilt the company in order to help the companies. That was the most important thing to me. If you asked me a couple of times after 9 11, i would say the number. How much money were going to give the families. At the fiveyear mark when wed giving them 180 million, it was extraordinary, but it was all of their hearts and souls pouring out to try to do the right thing by the families but also to rebuild the company. You lost 658 employees on that day, but you also give their families something else. How many children of former employees do you have working here now . We have 51 children of people who lost their lives in 9 11. If you think about that, that means their moms said its okay for the young men and women to come and work at Cantor Fitzgerald<\/a>. Think about their opinions. You know 22yearolds opinions. For them to come work here is great. And we want to train them. We want to help them have great careers. Sometimes they call us and say can you help us and get a job on the buy side and help us with your clients. Were always trying to help them. Theyre a part of our soul. We have twin girls working here which is extraordinary. It must be wonderful to see. I want to ask you about business, changing the subject, because its a very volatile market. How are you responding and what are your clienting saying . We love volatility. We dont like quiet fritds days august. The current markets in china, its been softer than the people anticipated. They put out nice stratiatistic. Commodity command now, oil is down. I think the underlying economy will continue to grow slowly. I think europe has more challenges than we do, but effectively, were in for a long slog. Great for real estate. Real estate loves low Interest Rates<\/a> for long periods of time. Reporter what are you thinking the fed is going to do next week . I think the fed, theres lots of talk that the feds going to make its move. I would say its less than 50 50. But a 25 basis point move to us, that means on 1 million, if you put it in for that, you can buy coffee for you and your friends. This is not really an Interest Rate<\/a>. Well talk about it a lot in the press that they moved Interest Rates<\/a> but if they only raise them 25 basis points for the next six months, thats really low. You have to keep it in the overall perspective. Theyre going nowhere. Theyll probably make a move to say theyre off the dime, but theyre not more than just a dime. Back to charity day. Make your pitch to your clients right now. What do you give if they make the trade here . So we give every single dollar, all our employees waive their days pay. We give any business we do today to 150 different charities. We give it to people who help others take care of theirselves. You can go to cantorrelief. Org and donate also. The market is 12 million. Thats what cantor raised last year. Youre looking to beat it this year. Weve been speaking to the ceo. Thank you. Back to you. Thank you, mary. As we await the opening bell, taking a look at futures on the last day of the trading week. One that could see the best week for stocks in eight. It looks like a down open. S p down 9, nasdaq down 22. 5. More straight ahead. Im watson. And today hundreds of companies are putting me to work. Im teaching watson to help your vet speak dog. Youre a dog, right . Im teaching watson to help you make healthy choices. Im teaching watson to help design a vacation around your personality. Dont judge. Im teaching watson to answer endless questions. How big is infinity . Where do babies come from . Why cant i have chocolate for breakfast . Im watson and im ready to work with you. under loud music this is the place. Sustainable tea tree eir boil and kale. Ade from you, my friend, recognize when a trend has reached critical mass. Yes, when others focus on one thing, you see whats coming next. You see opportunity. Thats what a type e does. And so it begins. With e trades investing insights center, you can spot trends before they become trendy. E trade. Opportunity is everywhere. So youre a Small Business<\/a> expert from at t . Yeah, give me a problem and ive got the solution. Well, we have 30 years of customer records. Our cloud can keep them safe and accessible anywhere. My drivers dont have time to fill out forms. Tablets. Keep it all digital. Were looking to double our deliveries. Our fleet apps will find the fastest route. Oh, and your boysenberry apple scones smell about done. Ahh, youre good. I like to bake. Add new Business Services<\/a> with at t and get up to 500 in total savings. Were about to have a moment of silence here. 9 25 is the time the exchange is going to have a one minute moment of silence. Not the first one of the morning. Already at 8 46 eastern time the white house held a moment of silence with the president and the first lady. Played taps. That is the moment that american flight 11 flew into the north tower. The 767 that was going from boston to los angeles on september 11th of 2001. This is a tough day to remember. But we go through the exercise because its important. If you have forgotten, nearly 3,000 people killed. 2600 at the World Trade Center<\/a> and the surrounding areas. 125 at the pentagon. 246 on the airplanes themselves, and on a day where, again, the newspapers write another story about the incredible resurgence of lower downtown. Population of Lower Manhattan<\/a> on 9 11 was 20,000 people. Today its 70,000 people. Is that amazing . Yeah. Much of the trade center site has finally been rebuilt, but were dealing with the ramifications of that day every day. Even more so in many of the things that we worry about and deal with as citizens of our great country. My thoughts go back to the day, having been on the air with mark haines who was truly brilliant on that morning, as awful as it was. And were looking at the live picture. There was a ceremony at the plaza at the september 11th memorial. Heres the moment of silence. [ silence ] [ silence ] [ silence ] while every business is unique, everyone is looking for ways to cut expenses. And thats where pg es Online Business<\/a> Energy Checkup<\/a> tool can really help. You can use it to track your Actual Energy<\/a> use. Find rebates that make equipment upgrades more affordable. Even develop a Customized Energy<\/a> plan for your company. Think of it as a way to take more control over your operating costs. And yet another Energy Saving<\/a> opportunity from pg e. Find new ways to save energy and money with pg es Business Energy<\/a> checkup. Youre watching squawk on the street. Live from the Financial Capital<\/a> of the world. Well get the opening bell in about 45 seconds. Weve had the moment of silence in remembrance of the attacks on 9 11 of 2001. Interestingly, the bell is going to be rung by a group of representatives from a group called my good deed. A nonprofit which created and organizes every year this september 11th national day of service and remembrance. And a lot of the kids on the floor today, and i believe on the balcony are ambassadors, children who were born on september 11th, 20th, 2001. With that well get the opening bell at the exchange. My good deed, a nonprofit, encouraging charitable contributions on september 11th, and at the nasdaq, the new york police department, the september 11th familys association and the new york september 11th childrens and benefit fund. Some of the numbers theyre talking about in terms of dollars raised, amazing charitable work theyve done over the years. And the fact that hes hired about 60 of the relatives of some of the families that. The statement that makes that their mothers let them come back to work at a place where unfortunately some of their family members passed. Watching the opening bell. One Important Group<\/a> is energy. On the price of oil, it continues to decline. It got a bump yesterday but it is under pressure. A lot of people talking about the call out of Goldman Sachs<\/a>. Lowering the price. Saying 20 could be a bearish scenario. Looking at 45 a barrel over the next year. Well see how oil reacts. Chevron got a bullish upgrade. Jpmorgan takes it to overweight. If youre worried about a dividend cut at chevron, a lot of people are. If cramer were here, he would argue its a risk that faces the stock, jpmorgan believes its been priced in. And they say theres no chance theyll cut the dividend. I think youll see a lot of different moves. Not at the highest but the mid tier, the smaller as they come under increasing pressure from their lenders who are going to be looking closely at where they are in terms of cash flow production or lack thereof and their ability to get their kov nans on the lending agreement. Were moving into a period where we can expect to see forced m a and disruptions. Maybe even bankruptcies. You wonder when you hear a number like 20, knowing its low, the lowest idea, at least that goldman offers, but the geo political ramifications if we get that, what that would mean for russia or saudi arabia, and how destabilizing that would be is a scary thing. To be fair to goldman, they say it wouldnt stay there for long. That is the true washout number, and to get there, it would require us to fill every tank and every logistical pipeline through which oil moves. Which is hard to do. And goldman has not been particularly strong on their predictions in the past. We should point that out, when its come to oil recently. Yes. We are looking at all the major sectors opening in the red. Energy under a most pressure and industrials holding up the least worse, and ge, i guess jeff left the set and did another sale. Yes. There was a lot of coverage of the coming decision to move the head quarters. The journal deciding to focus on that. Ge still below 25 a share despite his articulating in many years what he believes are the growth objectives and things that they will actually achieve at the company over the next year. I did want to mention Marvel Technology<\/a> group. Were talking about a 5. 5 million market cap. Mic microprocessor provider saying it is investigating about 7 to 8 of revenue that was recognized, it would have been received and earned in the Third Quarter<\/a>, hence you do have stock down substantially. They say at this point they havent identified anything in terms of Material Impact<\/a> on previously issued financial statements, but they are investigating what they claim is whether senior managements operating style resulted in an open flow of information and communication to set an appropriate tone for an effective control environment. Not certain what that means. But this basically would seem to be the idea of back dating is what i guess im picking up, taking stuff that maybe should have been booked in the Third Quarter<\/a> and putting it in the second quarter. Kroger finds itself at the top of the s p 500 right now opening up with a strong game. The only big Earnings Report<\/a> of the morning. It was a strong one. Bottom line raising the forecast. They continue the string of recent beats. A lot of people looked at that stock as one that was dragged into the market turmoil because it was one of the biggest gainers of the year potentially finding a Good Opportunity<\/a> to buy. The stock up almost 5 . Transports enjoying a bearish picture for crude. Looking at some of the airlines, delta in the list of top gainers. This is going to be the transports best week since july 31st, and even some of the consumer names, walmart the best dow component. Restoration hardware had earnings. 0. 85 beats by a penny. They raised the full year forecast, although the Current Quarter<\/a> outlook was a little bit soft. At that price point of furniture, im not sure if Oil Prices Mean<\/a> anything. And also with the Housing Market<\/a> improves, they launched two new lines like teen and some new stores expanding that. But i guess the disappointing factor there was the outlook. With the consumer, i wanted to check mondelez, the consumer giant that owns oreos, ritz crackers. Bill ackman became a shareholder. He was on squawk box this morning. Heres what he said about why he lee likes mondelez but hes not sure about the leadership. I dont know if the current team can get to the promised land, but i think a couple of things will happen. Either the current team will get the business to its potential, in a reasonably rapid fashion, or it will be a target. And from buffetts perspective, if youre a buyer, you dont want to be telling people, i wouldnt be recommending stocks in your universe. Thats going to make the prices higher. Talking about the longterm prosects for mondelez. Buffett said hes not interested in an interview with us, at least in the near term. Well they have a big challenge on their hands integratiing heinz and kraft. A fairly high multiple stock to begin with. David tepper indicating he thought the multiple on mondelez was fairly high, and many not believing what theyre pointing to will be there in the long term. Its not quite to the 7. 5 that we keep saying but a very large position for his ledge fund to take. It will be interesting to see if the dynamic between he and i was going to say rosenfeld begins to deteriorate. Shes a tough lady. And shes dealt with people on her board. Its not like shes not accustomed to dealing with an activist with a lot to say. Also the stock has been an outperformer on consumer staples. Its outperformed many others and ackman mentioned theres more room for margins to increase. He cut cost to boost margins. Quickly, the upgrades today. Amd, bernstein up. White wave, also bernstein up positive. For the most part, most of the s p sectors are in the red this morning. Kourtney is on the floor for us today. Good morning. We have the dow down here just fractionally down. S p about six points in early trade. A lot of investors sitting on the sidelines waiting to put their money into the market until we hear from the fed next week. I say we throw a party once he have the meeting behind us. Maybe money can get put back to worth. That ups the uncertainty in the market. Look out for volatility. When we got the ppi number, we didnt see Much Movement<\/a> in the futures because a lot of folks waiting to see what the fed will do. Not ready to commit either way. Many of the surveys have economists split on whether well see the rate hike in settlement september or not. Across the pond, experiencing some losses. A couple hours left to go in the session. France down by threequarters of a percent. However, they could finish with the best gain for the week since july. Well see what happens in the final two hours of trade. Checking in on asia as it remains a focus for the week and see what happened over there. Asian markets mixed overnight. China remains a global focal point for investors saying the economy isnt heading toward a hard landing. They said that yesterday. Chinese industrial output, retail sales, out on sunday. That can make for sometimes a rocky monday morning. We know traders and investors will be keeping their eye on that. We talked about energy earlier on, we have crude oil prices down. Goldman cutting the forecast for 2016 saying 20 crude oil is not out of the realm of possibility. You can see big losers on the session. Energy is the worst performing sector of the geek, aweek, and k post reporting halliburton must find a single buyer for the assets as a requirement for approval for baker hughes. Thats a report from the new york post. Jpmorgan saying the pessimism over execution risks are already priced in. I want to Pay Attention<\/a> to kroger. Its up sharply on the session after reporting a beat in the bottom line by about 5 cents. A slight beat on revenue and calling out lower retail fuel prices. Kroger has been a strong performer. Over the past year up more than 40 . Kourtney on the floor. For more on todays movers, lets go to Morgan Brennan<\/a> at the nasdaq. Apple giving back some of yets gains. Thats right. The nasdaq is down about 15 points. Take a look at the composite. Up for about 2 so far for the week, and the nasdaq 100 is fairing even better. Its up about 2. 3 for the week. Investors have been hiding out in some of the large cap names that had been leaders ahead of the Market Correction<\/a> we saw last month. The apple, though its giving up gains today, the apple, facebook, google, amazon, gainers for the week. The same can be said of some of the drug makers as well. Higher for the week. But traders and strategists are saying its really a waiting game. All eyes are on the fed and if it will begin to raise rates. Well continue to see the trading range narrow, and volatility die down over the next trading sessions as everyone awaits the feds decision next week. I also want to mention that we did have a moment of silence here with the nypd a short while ago. For anyone who was affected by the ends of september 11th, i want to say my prayers and thoughts go out to them today. Morgan, thank you for that. Oil is off the lows but down a buck. Jackie is with us today. Good morning. You guys have all talked about the Goldman Sachs<\/a> note that is circulating saying 20 oil is not out of the question, bringing the shortterm target to 38. Goldman was in the 50s. So this is pretty significant in terms of what theyre saying. They think is u. S. Will continue to produce. The production glut will be the problem, and saudis saying they dont think a summit of Oil Producers<\/a> will produce any kind of concrete action. It doesnt appear like anything of that sort will be on the cards. The flip side of what were hearing from the goldman note is what the iea is saying, saying that low prices will impact production and well see some of the steepest declines weve seen in two decades next year. Thats something to take into account, the eia yesterday saying it thinks u. S. They think production will go down. As you said, 44. 86. Were under the 45 market. 44. 42 is the session low. Keeping an eye on crude oil for us. Coming up, more bullish on amazon. One of the best performers of the year and of the session right now. Its up half a percent. We will have a guest to explain the call. Taking a look at stocks right now in the opening minutes of trade. The dow is down 4 1 points. S p down 5. Three tenths of a percent. The nasdaq fairing the worst, also down. 3 i earn unlimited 2 cash back on everything i buy for my studio. And that unlimited 2 cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business. Thats huge for my bottom line. Whats in your wallet . No students ever been the king of the campus on day one. But youre armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2in1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so youre walking the halls with varsity level swagger. Thats what we call that new gear feeling. You left this on the bus. Get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. Office depot officemax. Gear up for school. Gear up for great. I take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. Because it gives me. Zero heartburn prilosec otc. The number 1 doctorrecommended frequent heartburn medicine for 9 straight years. One pill each morning. 24 hours. Zero heartburn. Ive got a nice long life ahead. Big plans. 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It is now 705. The move based in part on a new survey that looks at the companys socalled prime fly wheels. Mark joins us from san francisco. And he can help explain. I guess the first question is what did you find from your survey involving prime and why that will continue to generate more business for the company . Okay. Good morning. What were finding is rising adoption of prime. Two years ago, 25 of amazon customers said they were prime. Now its 40 . Amazon doesnt disclose the numbers, but we think they have about 50 million subscribers. Prime members spend more than nonprime members, and the longer the people are in the prime program, the more they spend with amazon. Nonprime subs, only 15 . 40 of them will spend 80 0. Four years in, almost 70 spend at the elevated levels. That means the growth should be sustainable. Its amazing when they have a Loyalty Program<\/a> thats paid by the customers for and they spend more as a result of. But when people come back to the stock, they look at the multiple. Im looking at the multiples based on the revenue projections. Were talking about 42 times. How can you justify that . Yeah. You do have to take a longterm perspective on amazon. And broader context here. I know a lot of these venture capitalists in the bay area think theyre shortterm oriented. Thats not the case with amazon. They should be able to look out several years and look at the pools of business theyre building up. You do that and discount it back, you can get to materially higher price levels than where the stock is today. The concern amongst investors is how much money theyre going to spend. They have gotten the patience of their investors to do so. With so many prime out there, i wonder on content, do you expect theyre going to be ramping up a lot of their spending . Yeah. They may, and youve looked at amazon for a long time. The market didnt have the patience ten years ago that it does today. You remember when they went through a major investment cycle, that stock got clocked, but in the last one, people realized how good of investors that amazon was, is, and so, therefore, the market was willing to take the stock up. There have been plenty of misses. Amazon fire phone is one of then. Were seeing margins ramping up, and theres new Distribution Centers<\/a> in the u. S. Thats what has allowed prime to succeed, and same day delivery. Does an investor not need to be concerned that its not a winning business. Theyre about to launch another fire tv to compete with apple. Theyre reporting a 50 tablet. They still have ambitions in this space. They do. In the tablet and the e reader space, amazon scored a win. In the tablet space, it was soso victory, in the phone, it was a clear failure, and they backed out of it and shut it down. The tablet, amazon can be in that, and their advantage with the products is it has a dramatic cross selling capabilities. They dont need to make profits on the devices, they can make it on the additional products and Services People<\/a> buy because of the products. Its a huge competitive benefit. I appreciate your time and insights. Thank you. When we come back, a key reason you might see Oil Prices Continue<\/a> to slide into the fall. But first a look at this mornings s p losers which are almost uniformly in the oil space. Were back in a minute. My name is mark amann. Im a gas service rep for pg e in san jose. As a gas service rep we are basically the ambassador of the company. We make the most contact with the customers on a daily basis. I work handinhand with crews to make sure our gas pipes are safe. My wife and i are both from san jose. My kids and their friends live in this community. Every time i go to a customers house, their children could be friends with my children so its important to me. One of the most rewarding parts of this job is after you help a customer, seeing a smile on their face. Together, were building a better california. The Biggest Issue<\/a> we see in terms of the oil market is this autumn or next spring do we blow out storage in the u. S. Which would be as low as 20 a barrel. That was jeff curry of Goldman Sachs<\/a> on our show discussing the 20 a barrel possibility a week ago. Well, with u. S. Crude near multiyear lows thing. Theres a factor involving refineries that could put further pressure on oil prices in the fall. Were live in whiting, indiana with more. Reporter good morning. Interesting hearing jeff, and theyre out with research saying the 20 low could be revisited in the near term, and crude has seen a bounce off the lows we saw late in the summer. However, there could be another dip down coming. And what im you canning about today is the bp refining facility here in whiting, inn. This is one of the refineries scheduled to go into fall maintenance nature they shut town part of the facility, typically not the whole thing to make necessary repairs. But the impact this year, because of whats happened to the flat price of crude would be significant. Take a look at this map of the governments delineation. You can see a half dozen facilities that are expected to go down sometime in september or october. Partly or entirely for repairs. Minnesota, illinois, kansas, and oklahoma, just a few examples. And secondarily, theres expected to see a lot of revamping activity in the gulf coast region, and we have a map of that as well. Thats considered to be a different district in energy terms but we may see impacts on the price of crude with all the refinery revamps because when refineries go into that period of time, they dont need to buy crude oil in order to create refined products. I talked to analysts about what they expect the impact to look like. This year, according to Energy News Today<\/a> inc. , 2 Million Barrels<\/a> a day is expected by Early September<\/a> and october. And again, the impact on crude prices if we see it, the downward trend could be greatest around october 1st or so. You may ask whats the impact going to be on auto fuel . It may not be that noticeable. Prices hit recent lows of about 2. 43, and due to the long planning process here, the fact that other refineries will step in and the lack of summer driving activity, we may not see a shoot up in gas prices. Well be talking about this pipeline a lot more often as we head into the fall. Kate, thanks so much, and by the way, this goldman note making the headlines, curry told that to kate on august 26th. Your heard it here first. Breaking news on Consumer Sentiment<\/a> at the top of the hour. Dow is down 45 points. Back in a minute. Good. Very good. You see something moving off the shelves and your first thought is to investigate the company. You are type e. Yes, Investment Opportunities<\/a> can be anywhere. Or not. But you know the difference. E trades bar code scanner. Shorten the distance between intuition and action. E trade opportunity is everywhere. Good friday morning. Welcome back to squawk on the street. We are at the new york stock exchange. Lets take a look at the markets. Dow is down 6 76 points. A lot of weakness. University of michigan at the cme. Disappointing number. We were expecting 91. 1. It came out as 85. 7. Coming in the stocks were out of pressure. The s p futures are down about 10. Yesterday we got bad data, and i actually kind of thought that was one of the reasons that the stock market rallied. Were getting down to the nittygritty. The fed has little idea of what theyre going to do. The stocks are trading weak. Tenyear came in at the 2. 17. Down a hair. Lets take a look at how the main major averages are doing. The dow is down 81 points. S p 500 and the nasdaq lower as well. Nasdaq fairing the worst of the bunch, down about. 6. Jeff rosenberg with us. Jeff, the last minute data hasnt been that great. I dont know how important Consumer Confidence<\/a> is going to be. Bill dudley mentioned Consumer Confidence<\/a> is something he was looking at. Inflation pretty much unchanged at the producer priced level. What do you make of the latest data . It tends to track what we see going on in the stock market. Nevertheless, its a reflection of the impact of Financial Market<\/a> conditions. Thats what the fed calls it. The rest of us call it looking at our stock portfolios and feeling less confident when they go down. The loss of confidence feeds back into the real economy through lower spending, and thats what the fed is very concerned about. And that concern, theyve articulated it in the past. Most recently as you highlighted in jackson hole. Thats registered in Market Expectations<\/a> that the fed is unlikely to raise Interest Rates<\/a>. I think the weak day is has taken down the probabilities along with the uptick in Financial Market<\/a> uncertainly. Does that strike you that nobody has any clue what the fed is going to do next week . This is supposed to be a communicative fed thats supposed to be out there, controlling Market Expectations<\/a>. The market isnt expecting a rate hike next week. Many economists are expecting it. And the fed itself, weve gotten so many mixed messages from some of the fed president s. Is that strange . Its a new paradigm, a bit. Its a new time period where the fed is no longer going to be providing forward guidance. Stan phisher talked about a couple of speeches ago. They want you to be clear and have an understanding of the socalled reaction function, meaning how the fed will react today a, but theyre not going to guide the expectations as explicitly as before. So youre going to go into the meetings with greater uncertainty. That raises the risk or the possibility of a surprise and the fed contributing to market volatility for the decisions. Jeff, to the credit markets themselves, in a recent report you wrote it is in the realm of International Credit<\/a> markets where much of the longerterm concerns have long resided. You made an illatiallusion to t fuel. And why is it International Credit<\/a> that concerns you . Theres a broader topic that weve looked at for a while. Were talking about it every day when youre talking about oil prices, the impact of expectations of chinese growth, and whats going on in the twin areas of Commodity Prices<\/a>, and emerging market currencies. Where this creates financial risk or financial pressures is what weve seen for a long time in the growth and the development of private sector emerging sector market. Its certainly on everybodys radar screen. I cite in the piece that you just mentioned the things that the imf talked about back in april, for example, in the Global Financial<\/a> statement report. The vulnerability is how do we deal with the tremendous growth and credit out of private emerging markets, and collapsing market currencies heightens the risks, and they cause us to be a little bit more defensive in this time period. I saw some research yesterday arguing that for a long time the credit markets were screaming at the equity market but now its sort of, its been heard. There are no longer the only voices in the room, and the take on that was that its net constructive. Do you go along with that . I think that for a while there had been a bit of a perceived disconnect where credit markets had been widens, and headline markets hadnt. Thats a misread. People look at the s p 500 and compare it to high yield bond prices. The s p 500 was being held up not by the difference between what the height of the market and the equity market was saying but the lack of breadth and the concentrated leadership coming out of the s p 500. If you look at the stock Market Indices<\/a> that are relative to credit market, the issuers who issue in the high yield markets, you saw they were declining for some time, signaling concern over the Global Growth<\/a> slow down. There wasnt as big of a disconnect there. The catchup in august was a catchup in the headline indices. Brazil downgraded, russia continues the pain of the oil price slide. Do you see any potential for Systemic Risk<\/a> coming to our credit markets and our stock market . Well, its certainly a tail risk. Thats to say its a risk. The risk is small, but its one that has been increasing, and the downgrade to brazil, the impact of the brazilian political crisis. The subsequent impacts to the credit issuers in brazil and more broadly in emerging markets are risks we have to keep an eye on. Is it the core outlook . Probably not, but its something that investors need to keep an eye on and its snag raises the Downside Risk<\/a> to investing in risky areas, the fixed income markets. With compensation levels have been improved, yes, but the risk also improving. We advocate a more defensive position in the areas of credit markets. Thank you for joining us. Thank you. Sticking with the markets here, the nasdaq and the nasdaq 100 are the only indices that are still positive this year. Whats keeping them in the green . We have more on that . The nasdaq is bright spot. It is. I want to pick up where your conversation touched on. That concentrated leadership concept in the stock market he was talking about. Its even more concentrated when it comes to the world of the nasdaq and the nasdaq composite. The largest Cap Companies<\/a> are the ones Holding Things<\/a> up. Lets focus on the nasdaq 100. The biggest members of the nasdaq composite. Fractional gains. A little under a percent but its holding up better than the s p and the dow. Thats year to date. Take a look at how that stacks up. Its a lot about the Biggest Companies<\/a> out there. We decided to take a look at the nasdaq 100, and only the megacaps, and then which ones are Still Holding<\/a> positive year to date, that medium term momentum. We came up with there are only, again, five of these stocks that meet these criteria within the nasdaq 100. Amazon the best. That powering things to the up side, even though a lot of the market is down. Amazon. Com up 68 . Google shares, up about 22 . The class c, not as good, but its still up about, well call it 20 right now. Facebook up 18 . Another big contributing factor to the upward buys for now, for those nasdaq stocks, gilead up 13 , and apple up 1 , given a little bit of a slide. These five stocks are the ones helping to hold things up for the nasdaq, and among them, only two pay a dividend. Thats apple, and gilead. Back to you. Well see if that changes over time. Thanks. When we come back, markets recovering just a little bit since the beginning of august, but still down more than 5 . What does the rest of september have in store . Art cashin will join us onset with the dow down 61. Dont go away. trader vo i search. I research. I dig. And dig some more. Because, for me, the challenge of the search. Is almost as exciting as the thrill of the find. announcer at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. Thats why we rebuilt scottrade elite from the ground up including a proprietary momentum indicator that makes researching sectors and Industries Even<\/a> easier. Because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. Im a senior Field Technician<\/a> for pg e here in san jose. Pg e is using new technology to improve our system, replacing pipelines throughout the city of san jose, to provide safe and reliable services. Raising a family here in the city of san jose has been a wonderful experience. My oldest son now works for pg e. When i do get a chance, an opportunity to work with him, its always a pleasure. I love my job and i care about the work i do. I know how hard our crews work for our customers. I want them to know that they do have a safe and reliable system. Together, were building a better california. Stocks pulling back a little bit after the weak Consumer Sentiment<\/a> data at the top of the hour. Art cashin joins us to talk about the rest of this week, and the week ahead. Good morning. Good morning. What do you think . Im assuming no data point changes your mind about next week . Not my mind, for sure, but we had a couple of interesting things. The university of michigan data brought us down to a potential interesting test. Yesterdays low was 1937, and weve been having a series of slightly higher lows and slightly lower highs forming a pen innocent formation, and that could be important to the market. If they get weak again, watch that 1937 area. If we go down and violate that. Theres that number again. Yes. That can cause us trouble, and then you have some crazy seasonal things going on. We were discussing another down friday, friday historically is the best day out week. This year its been dreadful. Weve been down 13 or 14. And then we have other seasonal influences coming. Sunday night at sun down harts rash ha hahn in a. I was told you sell and buy them back on yam, kippur. That has worked out time and time again. Can i never figure out if its the september october pattern. But we have more selloffs in september and october than any other pair of months. Financial crisis, yeah, going back. That would be next wednesday, a buying opportunity. I think its the wednesday after, isnt it . The wednesday after next week, correct. Yeah. Thats right. And as far as some of the winning groups. Biotech led the charge. Which are you looking at in terms of the sectors to be a leader to confirm that the rally can come back . Well, i think the biotech may be an interesting area, because there are reports of more and more money being set aside in that industry. So i would look for some mergers and acquisitions activity in that, so i would expect that to keep going. As so what will really reinforce the fact that the bull market or the bounceback is in good shape, i would look again to the financials. Theyve been a little too weak, and theyve got to reassert themselves. They dont have to have full leadership, but they have to reassert themselves in here. Mary thompson asked a good question the last hour, that is what he thinks of on 9 11 anniversary mornings. What do you think of in. It was a very difficult here, and we managed, my son was working down here at the time, and we managed to leave after both towers had fallen and figured wed have to walk up down to find a way back to new jersey. We walked through streets that the visibility was very small with ash and dust and everything coming down. Met some, two distraught ladies who didnt know where they were going. We invited them into our convoy. We had some wet towels that we had taken to aid in the breathing, and then the most remarkable thing was that when we got to the east river, there were row boats and ferries, it was an evacuation. Nobody asked for money or anything. The boat would have a sign up that side staten island, or in our case new jersey. And people got on board. Mo nobody exchanged business cards, everyone helping one another. Thats the way it was, and when we got over to jersey city and we were walking, i couldnt understand why people were staring at us, and then finally i realized that both peter and i were covered with ash, and people realized that we must have been close to what was going on. It took you a week or two before you wrote your first comments after that day. But you later said it may take a long while to find those criminals who took our smiles and our friends, but we will have patients . I meant it. The other thing i mentioned, and wrote that for two weeks, the only smiles on wall street were on the photos of the missing posters that people put up for family that they couldnt find. Nobody came to work with any luster. The government asked us to reopen. And we did. The streets were guarded by National Guardsmen<\/a> and whatever. The important intersections, you would come in with your head down, and when you approached one, you would thank them for their service. It was a dramatic time, and it will never be easily forgotten. Art, thanks for remembering it for us. Art cashin. Squawk on the street will be right back. If you struggle with type 2 diabetes, youre certainly not alone. Fortunately, many have found a different kind of medicine that lowers blood sugar. Imagine what it would be like to love your numbers. Discover oncedaily invokana\u00ae. Its the 1 prescribed in the newest class of medicines that work with the kidneys to lower a1c. Invokana\u00ae is used along with diet and exercise to significantly lower blood sugar in adults with type 2 diabetes. Its a oncedaily pill that works around the clock. Heres how the kidneys allow sugar to be absorbed back into the body. Invokana\u00ae reduces the amount of sugar allowed back in and sends some sugar out through the process of urination. And while its not for weight loss, it may help you lose weight. 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The Gillette Mach<\/a> 3 turbo still feels better after 10 shaves than a disposable on its first. Mach 3 blades have twice the coatings. For a closer shave with zero redness. Get an incredible experience shave after shave after shave. Gillette. The best a man can get. The 2015 nfl season picked up where it left on with the patriots winning. Tom brady led his team to four touch down drives, including three to rob gronkowski, but the steelers stopping just short of accusing the patriots of cheating. Joining us is the ceo of rosen haas sports. Gronk and Antonio Brown<\/a> had big games and among his clients. Good morning. What a great way to start the season. Unbelievable. Nfl. Com says as long as the team has brady and gronk, belichick can figure out the rest. I think you would call gronk uncoverable. He is. When youve got his size, his speed, and his catch radius, youve got his ability to run after the catch and his ability to get open, hes just hes a very special athlete and a great kp kp competitor. It showed last night. They went into the game talking about slowing them down. Its a lot harder to do when hes healthy. Its pretty much impossible. How much has he told you about the way in which belichick or kraft or the team in general have used deflate gate as a motivating force . Well, i represent a number of guys on the team, and i was at the game last night on sidelines, and i can tell you, it was an emotional lift. I mean, the energy from the crowd just having brady back, and this us against the world mentality, and bringing out the four trophietrophies. It was a remarkable energy. The steelers had their work cut out for them. What an emotional lift with brady and the championship, and overcoming the controversy and being at home. They were going to be impossible to beat last night, even when the steelers were playing lights out early on, moving the ball up and down the field. You just had the sense, brady was going to be unstoppable. He was basically perfect last night. Drew, on Roger Goodell<\/a>, you were an unspoken critic of the initial suspension. You came here and expressed your satisfaction when it got overturned, but the leverage of punishments is unchanged. Does he need to be stripped of that authority . Last night the executive director of the nfl was on the sidelines, and Roger Goodell<\/a> wasnt there. If he wants to get back to being the face of the nfl and winning as opposed to lose, hes going to need to concede power on making the ultimate decisions on discipline. Its not fair for the nfl to punish a player and then decide whether or not the punishment is fair. There has got to be a neutral party involved. Hes a smart man. It makes too much sense for him not to make out a deal for the nfl pa. It should be enough that theres a reliable, trusted, third party that does it. Its not worth it for the nfl to keep losing these Court Battles<\/a> and losing the Public Relations<\/a> battle. The nfl is way too successful. Youll see the ratings will be off the chart, and the commissioner cant be there to promote his league. Thats ridiculous. Right. And this all comes on a week, of course, that bomb shell espn report from argues that deflate gate was essentially payback for helping cover up spy gate. Do you believe that story . I really dont. You know, im not big into conspiracy theories. I think its very straightforward. The nfl was under a lot of pressure by the 31 other teams to go after the pie trots on the deflate gate. Look, you could see the animosity toward the patriots even in the way the steelers have responded to the headsets malfunctioning. That happens in every stadium. But no one points the finger at the home team for that kind of stuff. You know, unfortunately for the patriots, theyve won so much, theyve been so successful, it just seems like theres a lot of sour grapes, a lot of professional jealousy, and i think its incredibly unfair. Im not a homer for the patriots. I have more clients on the steelers than i do on the patriots, but i have to call it like i see it. I dont see how the patriots had anything to do with the headset mall functions last night, and i dont think its fair to criticize them. The league says they issue the headsets, not the home team, but its a talker today. Drew, were out of time. Its good to talk to you again. See you next time. Have a great morning. He works with gronk. The gronk . Gronk. Straight ahead, the justice suspect setting the sights on white collar crime. More on that when we come back. Proud of you, son. Ge a manufacturer. Well thats why i dug this out for you. Its your grandpappys hammer and he would have wanted you to have it. It meant a lot to him. Yes, ge makes powerful machines. But ill be writing the code that will allow those machines to share information with each other. Ill be changing the way the world works. interrupting you cant pick it up, can you . Go ahead. He cant lift the hammer. Its okay though youre going to change the world. Good morning. Here is your news update at this hour. The 14th anniversary of the 9 11 attacks being marked with observances across the country. A u. S. Flag was put down the side of the pentagon. That tradition began a day after the attacks. The Vice President<\/a> appearing on the late show with Stephen Colbert<\/a> last night and was asked if he was ready to make an important announcement about his future. I dont think any man or woman should run for president unless, number one, they know exactly why they would want to be president. Id be lying if i said that i knew i was there. A south korean Court Sentencing<\/a> the man to 12 years in jail. He was found guilty of attempted murder and assaulted a foreign envoy. A fisherman experienced a once in a lifetime event. Look at that. They were visited by killer whales. He captured the whales swimming and jumping around the boat. Thats a once in a lifetime event. Back to you. And to see it on tape. Thank you very much. As you mentioned, its a somber day here on wall street and in Lower Manhattan<\/a>. The 14th anniversary of the 9 11 attacks. Joining us to talk about markets and to kmen rate the anniversary, jim stuart. Author of the book, heart of a soldier, a year after 9 11. Your thoughts today . Its been 14 years, and i was hear at the time and i ended up writing the book about a heroic guy. I have to say time has an effect. For years i couldnt open my book and look at it. It was too painful. Today i did. I didnt cry, i usually do. What stood out to me, there was so much of what is best about human nature that emerged from that. It was not just heros. There was love and caring and community. It reminded me i was thinking today about all the good things that we learned that came out of that, and id like to think now that nothing can bring those people back, but that this all wasnt purely in veain. There was a lot that emerged and reminded us of aiming higher in our lives. We mentioned the transformation of Lower Manhattan<\/a>. Its amazing to walk through there, and i think theyve done a beautiful job on the memorial area. You walk in there and theres this kind of atmospheric since thats profound. I mean, it took a long time, and i think theyve done a great job with it. Thank you for sharing. We want to feget your thoughts the market. We talked to during the height of the volatility. Things have moved down. It does seem like its sort of a normalizing phase coming in here. We had a sudden plunge, and then people said its over. Wait a minute, no. These things cant be over in a day or a week. We need a period of consolidation and rethinking. Theres so much we dont know. Nobody knows what the chinese economy is doing or what the fed is going to do next week. Lets take a deep breath. A lot of this uncertainty is going to go away in time. Knowledge will filter into the market, and were going to find a new level that reflects the reality were living with. Thats healthy. Thats how markets are supposed to work. But youll acknowledge the potential risks were facing now are bigger than whether greece has a parliamentary move . Yeah. I look back. It was getting a little dull, but there are worse things than dullness. But the way human nature is, its not going to be placid all the time. There are going to be unexpected crisis. I remember thinking when the vix was at the lowest, thinking what was going to shake this up . Who knows, and thn something came along, chinchina, all the uncertainty. It was the wild card. We cant anticipate that and we dont know what its going to be six months from now. The has been a healthy reminder that stocks go down as well as up. You need a risk premium in there. I think in the scheme of things this is healthy. I said before, maybe buying opportunities here and there. Just be patient and ride it out. It sounds like you think that the fundamental pillars that fuel the bull market, whether its easy Interest Rate<\/a> policy, a better u. S. Economy, are still there . Definitely. Were talking about a slight fed raise here, and then maybe a long time before they do it again. Everything i can see means Monetary Policy<\/a> is going to be accommodative. The u. S. Is economy is doing well. The u. S. Unemployment numbers are doing well. Were a major engine for growth. Europe is stimulating all the pillars are there. But its never healthy for something to go up in a straight line. Sorry. I was going to mention your colu column today. Well, wall street is back in the news, and i think its a great idea. How many times have we heard that before . Im losing count. And i looked at a case today which is a vivid illustration of why cases are so difficult. Its flimsy and is going to the case next week. They will decide. They they should. I didnt sit through the testimony, but there is no enron or world come. Not a single one of the governments witnesses said the top officials knew this was questionable, let alone told them to do it. I dont know how you convict somebody in a case like that. Thats a problem in Corporate Structure<\/a> where the ceo is very isolated from the minions who are maybe doing the actual wrong doing below. So you still have doubts about the ability of the Justice Department<\/a> to get individuals in various scenarios . I do have doubts. At least im beginning to accept that the will is now there. And i dont think i think after the financial crisis, they said lets dont mess with these big institutions. The last thing they need is a big criminal prosecution. I dont think thats the right approach nature that seems to be going away. And having the will is the first step. Getting to actual convictions is a long road. And its a little late, by the way. Its getting a little long in the tooth. Itll be interesting to see if that doj wrinkle couples from jeb bush and Martin Omalley<\/a> taking on wall street in his campaign, if there will be a more aggressive push. Its emerging as an issue in the campaign. Hillary clinton has also make a pitch we need more convictions here. I think people would love to see some good cases, but they have to be good cases. This country is not about going and putting innocent people in jail just to make a statement. They also have to raise campaign money. They have to walk a fine line. Thank you, jim. Today is the 14th anniversary of the september attacks. Cantor fitzgerald is holding it annual trading day. Mary thompson is us. The charity day raising money for a number of charities that receive funds from the Cantor Fitzgerald<\/a> relief fund, and they do so with the hep of a number of celebrities. We are joined by whoopi goldb g goldberg, cohost of the view, actress, we could go on and on. You have been a devoted participant in the Cantor Fitzgerald<\/a> charity day. I think youve been here all the six years theyve held it. Why do you consider this to be such an important event for you to attend . The days and the days following 9 11, the stories about Cantor Fitzgerald<\/a> came out, and the man that was running the company was doing Amazing Things<\/a> for not just the folks who survived but for the families of everyone, and his family and he seemed to be just fighting through all the crap that was sort of laid on us on that day. And i met him somewhere, and he said, oh, and im doing this, and i said i want to be part of it because of what you did, because when you look at how much theyve raised worldwide after being hammered as hard as you can get hammered, they still got up and gave a dam about Everything Else<\/a> in the world and said, youre not going to keep us down, and i just wanted to be a part of that grace. So as part of that grace this year, youre raising money for an Organization Called<\/a> we win. What does we win do . Well, the mom in from everybody hates chris, her sister and she started a charity, a lupus charity, because her sister has lupus. Its one of the things that folks dont know a lot about, but what they discovered is it hits women of color very hard, and so they wanted to raise awareness, and so the two of them have been working this charity, really kind of without a whole lot of fanfare, and then they started getting a little bit of notice, and i want to help them get some more notice, so this is for them. Okay. Speaking of work, you just returned from vacation. So the view will be starting up again. Its turning out to be a very interesting runup to the president ial election. It always is. Theres always, you know, theres always a lot of bubbling whether its on the democratic side or the republican side, and it takes a good 12 months for whats supposed to rise to the top to rise to the top, so its been its going to be very entertaining from now until we get closer, and then there will be something to talk about because ill be interested to see who makes it through in. Anyone youre focussed on getting that you want to talk to right now . No. Im still on vacation mode. Its like, yeah, sure, everybody. You know, whoever wants to come. Whoever wants to come, and we will be as respectful as we can be, and weve got new folks, and who knows what the year is going to bring . Reporter whats it going to bring for you . Youre busy on a number of different projects. I have a movie coming out in october called big stone gap. I have a book coming out if they say you deplete complete m. Its my relationship book. And tom and i, my partner, were doing animated and tiny movies. Were trying to do a lot of stuff. Reporter were looking forward to saying it. Thank you for joining us. Back to you. Mary, thank you very much. When we come back, recodes kara swisher will be here. Shell weigh on apple eels nls products. Back after a break. If and when stocks finally calm down, how can you cash in . Goldman sachs recommending an interesting strategy. For now, more squawk on the street coming up. under loud music this is the place. Sustainable tea tree eir boil and kale. Ade from you, my friend, recognize when a trend has reached critical mass. Yes, when others focus on one thing, you see whats coming next. You see opportunity. Thats what a type e does. And so it begins. With e trades investing insights center, you can spot trends before they become trendy. E trade. Opportunity is everywhere. Stocks are cutting their losses. The dow is now down 30. Oil continues to fall. Down more than 2 today. Goldman sachs cutting the forecast for the price of crude oil. We spoke to a saudi prince about oil prices and about the deal with iran. We are joined with more on that. An important interview. Reporter yeah. Basically for saudi arabia, this has always been about market share. They want to know why they should attend another oil summit when the iea has come out and said the policy is working. I had a chance to talk and ask about the governments policies. Take a listen. Everybody wants to protect their share of the market. Even nonopec countries like russia. They havent decreased their oil production. The u. S. Now is producing a lot of oil, and they havent decreased their production of oil yrch oil, so there is a consensus in the world community, particularly in oilproducing countries that things are going to change by demand and excess oil availability. Reporter now, of course, we also spoke about the situation in syria as well as the situation with iran. He says he continues to be skeptical of the iran nuclear deal, and this is a man who spent many years during the cold war and the iraq war and also during the war on terror dealing with the russians and syria as well. And i also asked him if hes worried about russian involvement in syria. He said the worst thing they can do is get involved militarily in the country, and the only way for things to change is for asaad to go. Oil prices down 3. 3 in the u. S. Up next, how a new security feature for apple devices could help launch huge corporate attacks. I ibms head of security joins us live to talk about it when squawk on the street comes back. vo rush hour around here starts at 6 30 a. M. On the nose. But for me, it starts with the opening bell. And the rush i get, lasts way more than an hour. announcer at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. Thats why weve built powerful technology to alert you to your next opportunity. Because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. If an electric toothbrush was going to clean better than a manual. He said sure. But dont get just any one. Get one inspired by dentists. With a round brush head. Go pro with oralb. Oralbs rounded brush head cups your teeth to break up plaque, and rotates to sweep it away. And oralb delivers a clinically proven superior clean vs. Sonicare diamond clean. My mouth feels super clean. Oralb. Know youre getting a superior clean. Im never going back to a manual brush. Apple is improving its mobile security by implementing a sixdigit pass code for the next iphone operating system. Kayla barlow is ibm security Vice President<\/a> , so no more fourdigit, its a sixdigit. The default moves from four to six. Thats a big deal why . It is a big deal. As Security Professionals<\/a> we think of a concept called intricate. How many combinations are there of a pass code. Fourdigit pass code has 10,000 combinations. With the right equipment and training, someone can hijack that device and get in in about 18 minutes. Keep in mind, it isnt just even having the device. We were talking a fourdigit pass code. Do you use the same one in other places like maybe your atm machine and other places . Its not even just breaking it on the device itself. You might be breaking it in other areas. Now, a sixdigit pass code now we move to a million combinations. So now were talking about likely years to try to brute force your way in. So heres the way i look at it a million combinations, 10,000 combinations, thats 990,000 reasons to upgrade to the ios 9. What about a fingerprint, which they do have on the iphone. Wouldnt that make everybody a lot safer . Well yes and no. You have the combination of the fingerprint, but you also occasionally need to log in with the pass code. So i think its an Excellent Way<\/a> to look at this. Its the combination thats giving you the right balance between convenience and security. So we went out and looked at one million mobile devices and tablets and we found that 90 of companies are only requiring a simple numeric pass code. Among those, 80 are only requiring a four to fivedigit p. I. N. We think this is a big deal where honestly our friends at apple are leading the way to say okay, guys, its time to take it up a notch. Both on our own devices, as well as what Companies Require<\/a> you to log in. Which company has the most hackable mobile device out there . The reality is its not so much about the device itself. As it is the entire chain. Because all a hacker needs to do is find that weak link in the chain. So you know, whether youre looking at apple or google, they both do a really great job of providing security folks like us with the tools we need to protect these phones. But its also the applications you put on the phone. Think of it this way. You start a job at cnbc, that give you a lab top. That laptop has all the tools you need. And has been vetted. Your lphone, you bring it to wok on your own. Its the combination of locking down the app and the device that makes all the difference this is something we do with our product called mobile first protect. Has any of this come out of your collaboration with apple in the enterprise . We have a fantastic partnership with apple and were constantly working with them on security, on developing applications. For various industries and you know, its comprehensive across the gamut. Security obviously a growing business for ibm itself. It is. Not a day goes by that we dont hear another breach, whether its in the government for example the office of personnel, and or any number of corporations are we getting closer to some sort of armageddonlike scenario in your opinion . Well heres the way i like to think about it. Think about this like a global pandemic, okay . Imagine a pandemic, you require physicians and hospitals out in the field. That is not happening in the security industry. Its still not happening . Absolutely. Its got to change. So one of the bold moves that ibm made is that we have the Largest Networks<\/a> of intelligence in the world. That we gather from our customers. From our own human research, et cetera. We have taken all of that, 700 terra bytes and putting it out free on the internet. We believe only through collaboration can we change this. We change the economic Value Proposition<\/a> for the attackers. If that new attack, that new malware is only good for a few minutes, why develop it in the first place . As you continue to Service Companies<\/a> across different industries, which ones do you find are the most vulnerable . Were hearing a lot about Financial Services<\/a>. Interestingly enough in the Financial Services<\/a> business, actually done a really great job, mainly because theyve you know, been the victims of many of these things. There are other industries that are trying to catch up. But what i really see is a movement from thinking about security particularly in the board room. Which is where were often having this dialogue. Moving from a conversation about compliance, you need to do x, y, z, very much of a check list, to moving to a conversation about Business Risk<\/a> what is the right level of investment and security . How do i compare relative to my peers . And particularly in the Financial Services<\/a> industry, as were sitting here on wall street this morning, this is where Financial Companies<\/a> are starting to move, is to say what is the right posture i need to take relative to the risk i have in my business . Youve just given people a reason to upgrade to the new apple iphone for better security. The camera is nice, too. Caleb barlow of ibm. Under armour often called a technology by some investors, including our own jim cramer. We caught up with the chief digital officer at a cia conference in las vegas and asked him if his company has plans for a smart watch. We have no productlike plans right now. As you think about everything, here all the information here is all about everything getting smaller, right . Whether its the chips themselves, how you know battery life getting better. Those things are going to merge into the products that we wear every day, right . Were seeing it in some categories right now. As we get closer to the space were in, were not going to shy away from essentially doing research and being in that category. So a watch itself, no, we dont have a product plan right now. But if its something inside the clothing itself . Absolutely a category that were interested in. A lot more on under armour and its technology plans next week. Its holding an investor day and well be talking to ceo kevin plank. Lets send it over to jon fortt with a look at squawk alley. Its an important day for apple investors, were going to dive in after this important week of apple news. Whats going on in china . After all the volatility, where should investors be looking . And travis kalanick, founder, cofounder of uber was on colbert last night. Well dive into some of the comments he made. At ally bank no branches equals great rates. Its a fact. Kind of like mute buttons equal danger. That sound good . Not being on this phone call sounds good. Its not muted. Was that you jason . It was geoffrey it was jason. It couldve been brenda. Having a perfectly nice day, when out of nowhere a pickup truck slams into your brand new car. One second it wasnt there and the next second. Boom, you had your first accident. Now you have to make your first claim. So you talk to your Insurance Company<\/a> and. Boom, youre blindsided for a second time. They wont give you enough money to replace your brand new car. Dont those people know youre already shaken up . Liberty mutuals new car replacement will pay for the entire value of your car, plus depreciation. Call and for drivers with accident forgiveness, Liberty Mutual<\/a> wont raise your rates due to your first accident. Switch to Liberty Mutual<\/a> insurance and you could save up to 509. Call Liberty Mutual<\/a> for a free quote today at see Car Insurance<\/a> in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. At ally bank no branches equals great rates. Its a fact. Kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping. Good morning, it is 11 00 a. M. Here in the Financial Capital<\/a> of the world in downtown manhattan. Its 8 00 a. M. Out west and squawk alley is live. Start spreading the news im leaving today i want to be a part of it new york, new york welcome to squawk alley for a friday. 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