This is typically an interesting trading week. You get some moves. The european markets were in the red last time i looked. London not open. Boxing day, right . Yes. Boxing day. Whatever that is. Thats where you give the staff money. Its called a christmas box. Thank you, that helped me. And the tenyear note yield. Crude oil which has been such a key to the markets is down thats the biggest move down in a few weeks. We rallied strongly. Rallied strong last week in wti and in brent. Brent fall beg low ing below wt. Amazon said it added 3 million prime members in just the week before christmas. Amazon had a great week what about the other brickandmortar stores . Where are all those return gift items going this year . Potentially important story moving forward, valeant ceo is taking medical leave. The stock is down 6 on that news. Well have the latest. Futures moving lower as we head into the final trading week of the year. Crude oil down 3 following last weeks rally. Overnight in china, the shanghai composite falling 2. 5 the biggest loss in a month hurt in part by weak industrial profit data. The nasdaq for the year is up 6. 6 . Thats the nasdaq composite. The nasdaq 100 has done better. The s p 500 clings to positive territory, the dow industrials down 1. 5 . But it was good week last week. The s p surging 2. 8 , partly because you had the rally on oil which was up almost 6 . This is an unusual end to the year. You could discuss where you are on valuations, people do continuously and rightly. But you had the cheered dynamics of yearend. Late fed decision, disappointment from the ecb, oil moving down rapidly last week, which made it difficult for a lot of people to put on risk and therefore for the socalled santa claus rally. Dont let that rise in stocks last week, where the s p finished up 3 fool you, december has been a tough month and its been an unusual year as the wall street journal points out from the end of november, november 20th until christmas week which is usually a positive time for the market. This year is an anomaly, weighed down by the price of oil and these central bank decisions. It has been quite a stunning year for central bank surprises. Going back to january, remember that, all the way up to december, where the European Central banks disappointed in not delivering enough stimulus. The Chinese Central Bank in august had a surprise devaluation of their currency. And kabota in japan buying everything. Clearly this post financial crisis era has been marred by being glued no longer. The front page of the Financial Times today, the majority of economists they surveyed in europe dont think the ecb will do more. Thats why its a different environment. Thats why you dont have the assumption of liquidity supporting the market arguably. Volatility the order of the day. This week very thin trading there are sometimes anomalies. A lot of times you get Hedge Fund Managers who do go to work a couple days and giving opportuni opportunity. Supposedly in a market like this where we are literally flat, lets call it now on the s p, you would expect stock picking would win the day that does not appear to have been the case as it extends to most of the hedge funds out there, with some exceptions. Many of them down. One thing that is up is amazon. That stock up sharply over the course of the year. And overall. Its been a record Holiday Season. They put out selective information. They are very smart. They know were starved for news on a day like this and put out this press release which is typically 12 pages long telling you all the things they sold, how many ways. But there were some important things for people who follow the company, namely they added 3 million members to amazon prime that was during the third week of december. They say demand for amazon devices, like the fire tablet, doubled from last season. Nearly 70 of amazons customers shopped using a mobile device. Thats an interesting number. 70 using mobile, not desk top. And we know they had tens of millions of prime users. Not hundreds of millions of prime users. Tens of millions. Yes. Well wait to see when they get to hundreds of millions. The point is dont know the numbers. When they say we added 3 million prime members, where are they . Are they in this country or abroad . Prime is the major driver where we are with amazon. Thats why they are taking so much of ecommerce. Hundreds of millions just to be clear is what some analysts are predicting in terms of half of the u. S. Population. Hang on. What we have is its a quarter of u. S. Households which takes you to about 30 million on their estimates. If you have 30 million now 120 million households in the country. The gross go to half million down the line which is that growth in 3 million prime becomes important in where you are. In one week, thats big. Because they want to get it in before the year end. Want to get their free shipping. And they do that fast shipping. They said the last delivery was right before the day thats fine now. Somebody comes to your home and hands it to you for on Christmas Day. Theyll do it within hours on prime now. Overall, this has been the year of amazon, fair to say. Not just the performance of the stock price but the underlying performance of the company in terms of sales. Sometimes we had dont include third party sales. Theyre used as platform by many others who record the sales, amazon taking 12 to 15 of the sale. When you assume what the number really is, youre getting to numbers that are 162 billion over the last year in terms of their third party sales, growing as much as 40 . But what is the profit margin . That was the shocker this year, yes, theyre making money but making money from web hosting. They are. For many years they were running the margins are still tight, but the Third Party Business has a higher margin because all theyre doing there is allowing you to list and doing the for extra fees, doing the shipping for you. And a huge cost in building up Distribution Centers in that. Many say that has given them a significant barrier to entry for those who might try. Including interesting stories on this company jet. Com, some interesting stories about their attempts to compete with amazon. We have an analyst later on to talk about this valuation of amazon, how do you figure that out. Clearly online retailers dominated the Holiday Season. Malls continue to take a hit. The warm weather certainly not helping. Joining us to discuss retail winners and losers, matt voss, managing director after jpmorgan and number one ranked retail analyst. Thanks for being here. Thanks for having me. You do not have many buys in the retail universe. We have the lowest percentage of buy ratings in five years. Virtually nothing in the mall. Do you feel like moves like 40 plunge in macys shares are justified, overdone, underdone . Where are you on what happens with some of the Department Stores . We think brickandmortar retailers are in transition now. A lot of what you were talking about with amazon, you have online that is still only 10 to 15 of overall sales today. You have retailers like prime mark coming in for fashion. Tjx and the offpricers getting bigger. The consumer is the winner. A lot better deals. A lot better discounts. Its the brickandmortar retailers trying to figure out what percentage longer term is online verses what will be sold in the store. But theyre stuck with the store bases like a macys sitting on 800some stores, and they need to figure out what is that right algorithm longer term. Is that why boxing day or september 26th, the day after christmas in this country was a big deal . Because the discounts were so deep . I read American Express had a survey saying more americans planned to spend the day after christmas than on black friday and cybermonday. The number one issue is the weather. Weather was 50 of the miss for most brickandmortar apparel retailers. Its not all of it. You had Tourist Spending which is reduced. On top of it, this online move, this fast fashion and offprice retailers. In terms of boxing day, its great you drew the crowds but terrible for margins. Thats been the story of the year. Good black friday weekend, very big lull between black friday and christmas weekend. You had a solid push the day before christmas, the day after. The problem is into the spring well go right back to some of the trends that we saw for pretty much all of 2015. What do you need to be doing if youre a retailer in this transitioning environment . We see it. We just spoke about it in terms of amazons dominance this year. It doesnt have to worry about catering to one part of the population or a certain demographic. It caters to everybody what do you do if youre competing against them in 2016 . The only answer is value proposition. You need brands. Brands are driving traffic. Nike is driving traffic. Every retailer wantsunder armou can get their hands on. Theres not a lot of newness, so in this world with the consumer seeking the value proposition, you need sales, discounts or the top brands. Thats the only thing selling at full price. Do i still need a huge Retail Real Estate do i need a huge estate of Retail Stores . Do you need to keep all those franchises open or do you hope for better days . Could a co, could a macys co say im cutting 100, 150 stores and that would be good for the market or will it be seen as weakness . For thor in the it will be seen as accepting the reality of the world we live in. Brickandmortar will be cut by a third over the next 5, 10 years. Thats the reality in your opinion. Yeah. They didnt do that in the recession. Thats the one thing they dont do. I think theyll be forced to. It goes back to the equation of 10 to 15 online today, that number is going far higher. A b malls today make up 200, 300, yet we have 700, 800 macys locations out there. Any turnaround stories out there . Abacrombie a abacrombie has been putting out good numbers lately. You have a second bucket of retailers out there, jcpenney is one that people were looking at, second half of 15 to 2016. Abercrombie and american eagle. They sort of bounced off the bottom. To be a real turnaround story you need something different, you need that smaller brickandmortar base, that online opportunity. I would look more to lulu. Wont each of those apparelmakers believe they can capture market shares with these Brilliant Ideas they have to sell next year or dont all of them believe they can do that . Of course. Thats where it comes down to that price value relationship, having the best brands and drawing the traffic. There is value in the mall. Look at limited brands, theyre in the malls where the other retailers are situated. That victorias secret . Yeah, and bath and body works. Fewer people are going to the mall. Will that continue . Its factual. Decline in mall traffic continues. Its that combination that retailers are talking about. That omni channel expense only goes higher that comes back to the cost of doing business as a brickandmortar retail is going higher. I know were out of time, i want to ask one final question. Given what you cover as an analyst, given the fact that oil has been a weight on this market, people can leave these type types of conversations as a Glass Half Full what. Where do we actually live . Healthcare is higher, rental costs are higher, those are two major offsets to the gas price savings today. The consumer continues to be on a steady climb higher but not a vshape recovery. Offpriced athletics, got it. When we come back, fit by the is one of the premarket movers. And deadly storms bringing tornadoes to texas and wintry weather across the midwest. A live report from the ground straight ahead. Looking at the futures market. About 15 minutes to the opening bell. Futures pointing to a lower start, off the lows of the session. The dow set to open down 84 points. Much more squawk on the street when we return. Deadly tornadoes over the weekend being followed by a blizzard. The weather channels mike sidal joining us from amarillo, texas. Reporter good morning from interstate 40, the sun is up in amarillo. The temperature is holding at 24 with a windchill of 8, nominal for this time of year. This section of i 40 to new mexico is shut down. Also a section to the state line with oklahoma. Expecting i 40, both sections to open up later this morning. The wind has backed off. The snow has stopped falling. Lubbock picked up 11 inches of snow yesterday. Thats the snowiest day on the calendar record in december. Parts of new mexico had eightfoot drifts. Along the gulf coast, another tornado watch. Weve had tornado warnings in parts of mississippi this is heading east across alabama and georgia today. If youre in that area, i20, i10, be aware of the dangerous weather there. Over the weekend we had tornadoes, nine so far confirmed in dallas, ft. Worth. They killed 11 people. Following that killer outbreak on Christmas Eve in mississippi and arkansas. Now were dealing with flooding continuing today. So far we had 11 deaths from flash flooding, just flooding. People driving through roads that are underwater, parts of the midwest down to arkansas, thats another concern today. The snow and ice that was here is heading into the midwest. Minneapolis in line for snow. Snows in des moines. If you got to pick one airport you want to avoid today its ohare in chicago. A winter storm warning for sleet and ice. Already there they canceled 300 flights. Hundreds are delayed. That will have a rippling effect across the country. There you go in a nutshell. The record warm december for many of us east of the rockies is coming to an end. Even in new york, philly and boston. Temperatures getting close to average towards the end of the week and the first of the new year. Sara, david and simon, back to you. Winter is finally coming. Up next, art cashin on what to expect on the final trading week of 2015 as we count you down to the opening bell in ten minutes. Take a look at futures. The indication is well be slightly lower after a bumper gain for the market last week. More squawk on the street live from the New York Stock Exchange when we come back. About 6 1 2 minutes before the opening bell. Lets bring in art cashin, director of floor operations with ubs. Wti is down. Dont know if thats a key to the market, but i would assume its part of the overall tapestry. It clearly is. If wti breaks below 37, it will put extra weight on the market. Still trying to absorb the two big updays they had. We may have cheated santa claus out of a couple days by doing that. This is usually a quiet week any way. With the idea that theyre celebrating boxing day now instead of the immediate day after christmas, londons closed, canadas closed. This should be very, very dull today. This is typically a quiet week. You see some anomalies in trading sometimes. But some stocks moving more than they otherwise would. The fact that the winners last week had been the previous losers tells me some of it may have to do with tax selling and thats abating. Because of the lack of action so far, so close to the flat line, this comes close to performi performing at the slowest of the year. What numbers do we need to hit for the market to go higher next year . A friend of mine said it would be important for Fund Managers to nurse this to a plus state, the advertising for negative ticks is not good. We are seeing people pull money out of funds at a record rate. The year ending in 5 being down i dont think has happened in 140 years. What does that tell you . Its time to break the record. Well see. This tells me we will probably wind up with a small gain for the year. What is the set up into next year . The fact that so many people will see declines in their stock portfolios this year for the First Time Since 2011. What does that mean for next year . You hit that right on the head. The idea that even if averages are up a bit. If youre not in the ten largest s p stocks, youre down. The ten largest stocks are up. The other 490 are down. At the same time you might find the savings rate still rises with people saying this isnt working well. Thats the problem. That statistic i gave you tells me anybody who has been trying to diversify has been no asset class up this year . No. Nowhere to be seen. Nope. Nope. The nasdaq had a bit better performance. Art cashin, thank you. The opening bell coming up. Stay with us on squawk on the street. Here at td ameritrade, they work hard. Wow, that was random. Random . No its all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3 12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. This happens every third tuesday. We have Pattern Recognition Technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. Theres no way to predict that. For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. Youre watching cnbcs squawk on the street. The opening bell ringing in a half minute or so. You can see right there, celebrating the apple circus, typically held behind Lincoln Center in case youre in for a circus. Im not, but i know sara eisen is. Youre the one with children, you go to the circus. Cirque du soleil. Cirque du soleil is always fun. Without a doubt. Well be watching oil today. Thats a big part of this story. The Energy Sector down 8 for the month after a pretty strong rally last week. That will happen today with oil prices under pressure again. And as you hear, the opening bell. You can look back at the real Time Exchange at cnbc hq. At the big board, the big apple circus led by a swing master. At the nasdaq, the 5 under forty foundation. We have, as sara mentioned, a lot more red on the board. We entered today with the s p, i call it flat, but for chose who care a tenth of a percentage point, its up. Wait, its not anymore. Now we are down for the year. We did gain 2. 8 last week because of that rebound that you had in oil. So if oil is able to turn around, talk about the saudis, the saudi budget and the pressure theyre under, but as we said this is a defining week for performance. Youre relatively flat with the exception, as david rightly points out of the nasdaq, up over just 6 . The nasdaq 100 with the bigger chips up over 10 off the top of my head. The Dow Jones Industrial average down 1. 5 year to date. Which has been surprising. I would say the dow outperformed the russell 2000 of small cap stocks which ar