Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20160328 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street March 28, 2016

Gains of lows. Overnight in asia, we can look at how those markets responded. Japans nikkei up about 0. 75. The yen has strengthened for several sessions in a row. The shanghai composite giving up three quarters of 1 . European markets are closed for easter monday. The tenyear note yield, watching that for a gauge on growth and inflation. 1. 9 is what were talking about this morning. Crude interestingly, a bit on the rebound, both brent and wti, still up less than 1 . Brent is above the 40 mark. Our road map starts with the last week of the quarter. The dow and s p hugging the flat line for the year. Where will we go from here . Bernie sanders gaining momentum over the weekend and the candidates are descending on wisconsin ahead of the april 5th primary. And microsoft throwing its hat in the ring for yahoo . Well look at potential deals that could take yahoo off the market. We begin with 72 dead and hundreds injured after yesterdays suicide bombing in pakistan. The christians were celebrating easter. Rehema ellis has the latest. Good morning. Dogood morning. Authorities are searching for the suspects in the area and in villages around the area in connection with the suicide bombing attack in lahore, pakist pakistan. We have reports of at least 72 people killed. 29 children. 300 people were injured in the attack. Depending on the nature of the wounds and the injuries, Authorities Say the number of fatalities could go up. This happened in a crowded park where people were enjoying an easter weekend when the suicide bomber detonated the device. Reports indicate that many people had lined up to buy bus tickets when the bomb went off. Authorities say the attack was deliberately aimed at christians. There are only about 1. 5 million to 2 million christians in this mostly muslim country. Now a Splinter Group of the Pakistani Taliban has claimed responsibility. This is the deadliest assault in this country since 2014 when there were more than 130 students who were killed at a militaryrun school that they atte attended. Back then and now pakistani authorities have called this a beautiful attack, close to a section of the country close to the power base of the Prime Minister. They are desperately looking and searching for suspects. Kelly . We eagerly await news on that. Rehema ellis, thank you very much. A busy week of Economic News begins with data showing Consumer Spending up 0. 1 in february. In line with forecasts. Personal incomes rising 0. 2 . This on top of the data released friday showing an upward revision in Fourth Quarter gdp to 1. 4 growth. Overall march has been a strong stock market month. Youve seen the rebound there, led by the dow which is up 6 . The s p 500 looking to bounce back into positive territory year to date. And mike santoli, i thought what was most notable about the data this morning is the pce price index increasing 1. 7 in terms of annual growth from last year. Its missing the mark on the fed forecast. Janet yellen, who about a week and a half ago when she led the News Conference said that inflation may be temporary. Shes wary to see inflation rising. She was right. She was. 1. 8 , if you look at the past two months. Clearly this isnt running away to the upside. Even with that people are talking about technical reasons why it has an upside bias. It does seem that all the data that you ticked off is about slow and steady, kind of what we thought coming into the year. Between the beginning of the year we have this huge recession panic and a huge is the fed behind the curve panic and were about flat for the year on the markets. Im thinking about the interview in the journal this weekend where kaplan sounds more like janet yellen and that fisher who dissented more. It seems as though the view is coming around to, mike, the janet yellen view of the world. They called it the decline of dissent at the fed. We were hearing at the past meeting it looks like after the past meeting, a lot of these contrary voices out there seeming to contradict what janet yellen had to say. And now everyone is reading from the same book, were okay. We have the core of the fed speaking this week. Janet yellen speaking on tuesday. Bill dudley, in the inner circle, will be speaking out on thursday. Those are the folks who matter when it comes to determining fed policy. It will be nice to see more philosophically about the dollar. Dudley a few years ago said the fed has a special responsibility to Pay Attention to the fact that 60 of the worlds Financial System runs on the dollar. Like it or not, those moves can impact monetary things at home. In asia they were talking about a newfound focus on the Federal Reserve. Heres what was said about the u. S. And what is going on in the international economy. We understand that were in a Global Economy a global Financial System. What happens in brazil or china, in Southeast Asia or south america has a huge impact on the u. S. Economy in terms of employment and inflation goals. We have to take that into account. We have to understand whats happening around the world, how it impacts the u. S. Economy. We also need to be cognizant of the fact when the fed acts t does affect the Global Economy. Understand those feedback loops and all the ramifications. San francisco fed president john william observe os on our morning. How much weight will the fed be putting on International Developments and what does that mean for the trajectory of policy and the market . I think International Developments is a way of saying are the markets in panic mode or not . The markets respond to these global influences. Its more important when the u. S. Is growing at 1. 4 , it makes it more important on the swing factors of growth. Want to show you shares of pandora sliding this morning. Brian mcandrews leaving the company to be replaced by tim westergreen. Mcandrews did not give a specific reason for leaving. Shares down almost 10 in pretrade. Only to say the proper team and strategy is in place. Another founder returning as ceo to steady the ship. And a company seemingly to not know what its mission is going to be. Losing to sp losing to spotify and missing out on the opportunity to sell. They have been struggling. Pandora for a long time was seen as this Disruptive Technology that was going traditional radio out of business. It had streaming, the users, then what happened . They have been resolute in saying we have going after the huge pie of terrestrial radio. In reality the users, they only have so much time in the day to listen to music. Theyre switching among things. I dont think the business is broken. But is it as big and as immediate an opportunity as they thought it was going to be . Strategically it sounds like theyre trying to move beyond radio and do more with music. When you have a service thats so appealing when it starts, so disruptive, people will start chasing that. Theres no shortage of places to look. Apple music, many others. Can pandora find a way to reinvent itself into something relevant across the Music Industry . They talk about live events, having more immediacy out there. The big trick is if people expect things to be free and nearly free and consume allyoucaneat in terms of content, can you pay the people who produce it . They have not gotten that fixed yet. I was at a fitness class thing a week or so ago where the instructor kept apologizing for the pandora ads. You have to pay money to get rid of those. Thats exactly the point. Even for this business, i dont think they were making a mint, but it was something important enough to them, they werent paying up for this. At one point there were two in a row. They should go to spotify, you can listen to free. This will not help pandoras share price. Certainly not. Well keep an eye on that. Lets talk generally broader markets now. Lets bring in our panel here, gabrielle santos, and Brooklyn Dwyer from bmp paribas. Brooklyn, on the Economic Data out this morning, would you agree the inflation number was most important when it comes to determining fed policy and market implications . Certainly matters a lot. I think the disappointing print there highlights a couple of things. One is that we should be less fearful of runaway inflation. Some of these ideas that brew in markets. We can discount that. I think youre right in saying that Janet Yellens trajectory and her complacency with inflation has proven to be right right now. The other side of the data that were important is the revisions to januarys data which showed consumption was really weak. Those two pieces are key. What does that mean for the markets that there are major pockets of weakness and the u. S. Consumer is a major part of this economy, its not humming along in terms of spending, were not getting core inflation that is meeting the targets what does that mean for the stock market . Its a confirmation that the u. S. Consumer is a new consumer after the Global Financial crisis. We are not seeing the Consumer Spend 100 of the gas savings. Were not seeing that excessive amount of spending. But its Strong Enough to keep gdp around in line with that 2 average. In a way, it is another way to dispel those recession fears. But its a confirmation that growth will remain around this recent trend of 2 . Brooklyn, you know through all of the noise of this whole year, weve seen the tenyear treasury note yield remain in a very narrow band. Here we are, 1. 9 right now. Its sending a message of slow, steady growth. Not too concerned about an immediate pick up in inflation. Is that what you see for the rest of the year . Do you think we get a bit of acceleration which is a Consensus Forecast is looking for . Its funny. I think the tenyear yield could drop even though we get a pick up in inflation. A bit counter intuitive there. We think the trajectory for or likelihood of fed rate hikes is slim. Right now it looks like this market turbulence continues to show its head every couple months. We think that will keep the fed on hold now and Slower Growth. This kind of fading gasoline price savings and impact on consumption is going to mean Slower Growth ahead. Thats going to keep the fed on hold for later. That longerterm trajectory of lower rates is probably going to hold down that tenyear treasury for quite some time. Friday morning our markets were closed, we did get corporate profits part of the gdp report. Ugly. Was horrible. Down 15 after there was some special forgetters there, like the bp oil spill. A lot of it was energy and gas. Even stripping out factors it was down more than 7 ithe Fourth Quarter. You wonder if it will rebound. Theres been a debate playing out, are we getting a clearer read from the gdp accounts . The accounts are more than gaap. Its basically the raw profits that will not be massaged or overstated for any purpose. I see it more as the baseline longer term. Not necessarily quarter to quarter moves, but shows we had a profits recession. Gabriela, here we are again, going into a few weeks, well get analysts numbers and theyre downgrading the forecast for earni earnings. What does this next cycle look like . The profits that we saw on friday confirmed that we had already been getting from Standard Poors figures. Meaning last year was quite a weak one for profits. Not just energy and materials, but the whole affect of the dollar and the concern there, the impact of the dollar. So i think if we look to this year, the key question is where is the dollar going to go . How low can Energy Prices go . Our view is that weve seen a lot of this pain behind us. Its probably already reflected last year. So we are feeling more optimistic about corporate profits because we see a fading of these headwinds this year. Especially in the second half of this year. Youre right, in order for the markets to move higher you have to see profits come back the way that we are expecting this year. Or expectations go so low that they can only beat when the actual bottom line number comes out. Thank you guys for joining us on a monday. Gabriela santos and Brooklyn Dwyer. Bernie sanders says he has momentum after sweeping the democratic caucuses over the weekend. On the gop side major tensions between trump and cruz. Lets get to john harwood. Berniementum, is that a thing . A little bit. Bernie sanders has always done well in smaller states, whither states, caucus states. Look at the wins he had in alaska, hawaii and washington. Big numbers here for sanders. Were talking about 70s and 80s. Hes rolling, right . Look at the delegate totals, hes not rolling that much. Hillary clinton with the superdelegate shes what is well over twothirds of the delegates she needs to be nominated. He needs to collapse confidence in her campaign to switch the superdelegates. This weekend will not do it. Hell have a chance in wisconsin which votes next week, try to knock her off in a big state. But he has to have not just wins in big states, but big wins. On the republican side, Donald Trumps lead in delegates is shakier over ted cruz. He still has an advantage. He still can get to 1237, the delegates he needs. He has to keep rolling. He has to keep winning. The polls show, for example, in wisconsin, a case where the winner takes most of the delegates, not all, trump has a lead but a narrow one. Well see how the trash talk plays out over the next week and whether it shakes trumps lead in wisconsin and states elsewhere. Still a chance for the stop trump forces but donald trump has the edge. The trash talk very much alive on the campaign trail. John harwood, thank you. When we return, yahoo in the m a spotlight. Well explain the latest. Plus douglas holtzeakin with eyeopening thoughts about the cost of deporting immigrants. Dow futures up almost 43, nasdaq up 16, and the s p 500 up 5. More squawk on the street live from post nine at the New York Stock Exchange when we return. , you can fly across town in minutes or across the globe in under an hour. Whole communities are living on mars and solar satellites provide earth with unlimited clean power. In less than a century, boeing took the world from seaplanes to space planes, across the universe and beyond. And if you thought that was amazing, you just wait. Welcome back. The battle for starwood is not over yet. Anbang has come back with a higher bid for Starwood Hotels. Shares up 2. 5 in pretrade. This is the latest in a bidding war between marriott and anbang. The nonbinding offer is worth 82. 75 her share, when you add the value of a spinoff, the transaction is worth 88. 66 a share. Shares are trading around 84 and change this goes back to april of last year, this saga. Every time it seems like, now we have no, now we have the final offer. Anbang seems determined to own this property. Seems like it will be determined by marriotts pain point. How much more do they want to go back and get the deal done . What can they assume in terms of efficiencies and values that they can create as a company. This is a consortium, anbang, yes, but j. C. Flowers and others. They clearly wanted this property. Marriott made a strong case to its investors that it needs to be bigger to be internationally competitive, and starwoods footprint is more international. They have a million rooms that would put them as the next biggest in the space. If this deal falls through what will happen . I think it will be more inferior for marriott shareholders if though have to keep paying up more. Interestingly, investors its trading as it continues to be a bidding war for this stock. This latest deal is 81 per share. Starwood hotels is trading 84. 25. It continues to be propelled every time they come back. Just note on the deal price, this is 4. 75 per share more than the original buyout offer from this chinese company. We knew this was coming. We knew they were serious about gaining foothold in american hotels. As previously announced, starwood plans to convene its Stockholder Meeting for the 28th, today, and immediately adjourn it. Starwoods board has not changed its recommendation in support of the merger with marriott. They are going along as if marriott will happener. Arne sorensen came on with us that day, they are after the Luxury Brands like w hotels, and st. Regis resorts. There was a question asked about sheraton as well. This is a prize, this is a fight. We will talk about a bullish march leads to a weaker april and up next possible warning signs for stocks. Looking at futures again, just about eight minutes to go before the opening bell. S p up about five. More squawk on the street straight ahead. By debating our research to find the best investments. By looking at global and local insights to benefit from different points of view. And by consistently breaking apart risk to focus on longterm value. We actively manage with expertise and conviction. So you can invest with more certainty. Mfs. Thats the power of active management. Sara, well start off on my righthand side with the fx markets, the dollar and Dollar Strength here. It could be a big deal. Were less than a month away from corporate earnings season. The strong dollar has been cited in the past as weighing on corporate earnings. Well see if the strong dollar is a warning sign this time around. Stronger dollar, maybe weaker commodities. Oil and gold fall. Maybe a sign things are not as good for that particular part of the complex. And icy ipo markets. The renaissance ipo market is not performing as well as in the past. Banks under pressure. The financials under pressure. One of the worst performing sectors in the overall market. And transportation stocks, huge rally off the january lows, up 26 . Maybe showing signs of weakness again. Again, sara, some warning signs, a lot of fed speakers and a big jobs

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