Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20160331 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street March 31, 2016

Unless something crazy happens today, this will prove, though, to be a very good month for most of the stock market. The dow, if youre not paying attention, up more than 7 just this month. It is now 1. 5 up for the year. We are going to take a closer look at some of the quarters surprising winners and losers, see if theres names that you own on either of those lists. Dow component ge in the news today. Ge capital officially filing to have its too big to fail designation removed after shedding a large number of its financial assets. The company does continue to transform. We talked about that yesterday, but well get more on what this may mean for the state and the entire Financial Services industry. And apples new products hitting stores today, but were not seeing any lines of fanboys down the street. The new iphone and ipad not getting a lot of buzz, but maybe, just maybe thats a good thing for apples stock. Were going to dig into that idea as well. Lets get now to this market. I mean, i feel like theres a bradbury short story, all summer and a day about people live on mars and they have one day without rain. I feel like weve lived a whole year in a quarter. Okay. With january, february and this month. Its slow now. What do you see happening . I like that theory, and the theory is basically that this market, this quarter had pretty much everything. Come in with the economy really slowing, somewhat because the fed raised rates, not acknowledged by most people, but thats a shame, except for janet yellen, who obviously saw the impact. And then we saw pivot february, 10, 11, where Bernie Sanders wins new hampshire, the medias still making it a horse race thinking that somehow, theres no such thing as superdelegates. That was when the oil passed, we got 25, 26, that was when Deutsche Bank was rumored to be in trouble, thats when draghi made statements that people didnt think would change things. And that was the bottom. And ever since then, weve been having a really great run, interrupted by one moment where retail sales were revised down. But frankly, ever since the bottom, people have been franticly trying to get back in and have not had a chance, as the charts show over and over again, whether it be for freeport or whether it be for a lululemon, whether it be for a general electric, which well talk about, or whether it will be, like, for stocks we never get any talk, travelers, United Health. Why dont we talk about Companies Like that, where people are making fortunes . My friend, we have 57 minutes of unscripted tv, we can do whatever you want. We ought to because i see stocks in the dow, a verizon, United Health, travelers. I mean, hey, these companies are making fortunes, and how . Because they just keep doing blocking and tackling. We tend to focus on a couple of companies, but i look at a United Health that pulled back from the affordable care, i look at travelers, which has pulled back from writing some insurance thats not that good, u. S. Competitive, and i say these are the stars. When you talk about the unsung stars, no one wants to talk about these companies. They just make money. They buy back stock, they do betterthanexpected earnings, and they are gems. Lets get micro in just a second but lets go quickly to macro. Last night on mad you said the fed would set us free. We know april is likely off the table, so put the fed aside. Lets make a deal, america, we wont say fed for 60 days. What is going to then be the most important thing for the market . Is it the stabilization of oil . Is it going to be actually, dare i say, earnings . Is it going to be mario draghi . You know what, im actually or d, all of the above . Looking back, a lot of times i like to look back at what was said a year ago and i picked up a good piece by michael semliss , i own the market. For years, he was saying europe was going to do nothing but go down. He called the bottom and said euro business is going up, corporate rates down, Mortgage Rates down, euro era banking lending. And he said look, the dollar is probably peaking. Year over year, geez, got the exact top. It was pretty amazing. And i think europe has come back. And i think that when you look at the distribution of our largecap companies, whether its a j j, a facebook, google, alphabet, whether it be an ibm, intel, microsoft if you get a turn in the dollar against the euro, then whats going to happen is raising numbers all those numbers i just mentioned, all of them i think if you went to sort of the average investor on the street and said how has the dow done this year . Well, they stopped looking at it years ago. Obviously, professionals are not really looking at the dow, but it is sort of the benchmark of the thing. These are incredible these are quartertodate numbers, okay . So, theyre yeartodate numbers as well. Verizon up 17 . Right. Caterpillar, 12 . Walmart, 12 . 3m, 10 . Those would be spectacular annual gains and weve had them in 90 days and no one seems to be paying attention no, youre wrong except for you. Theyre wrong. Every one of those stocks ive been told is a short by people who dont know much, every one. Caterpillar, jim, dont be confused, chinas really bad. Verizon, dont be confused it doesnt have real growth. Every one of those i have heard bad things about, okay . Walmart, come on, they preannounce, its a really bad quarter. All of those stocks overshot to the down side. By the way, oil stocks may have overshot to the down side. Look at the oil numbers that have been coming out. Theres actually a good piece today about gasoline. You know, people have been using more gasoline. So, i think that when you mention those stocks, ive never heard a long guy say you know what, youve got to buy caterpillar. Ive heard people come to me and say, how dare you Say Something positive about cat . End markets are what matters for cat, end markets and bottom. Look at this we got to a little bit yesterday on investing legends and conventional wisdom. Four months ago, everyone said brazil is doomed, theyre throwing people in jail, protests in the streets, inflation, economy, all thats happened is brazil is the single bestperforming Global Market this year. Shes going to be thrown out. But it goes to a point of sometimes when everybody is saying something, the dollar turned out to be a good stock, though, how crazy is that . Dollar has gone down. Look, the emerging market currencies have been the strongest in ages. We dont talk about it. Why do people not talk about these things . Why do they not talk about the baltic freight being up almost every day, which says europe is stabilized . Europe has stabilized. I could point to the baltic dry index, if you want to get really wonky. Thats what im doing the bbi has turned around a little bit. That is a measure, by the way, if youre at home, of the rates in the charter rates for ships that do things like fertilizers and corn and granular items. Right, right, stuff that suez max. I promised myself i wouldnt say suez max today. In the penalty box. Widen the panama canal. Its really great lets talk about apple walt mossberg, i read his view last night of the ipad and iphone. He says theyre not spectacular, but i like them. The iphone, theyve gone back to a smaller size, faster, good battery life with the ipad pro, but really, its not getting a lot of attention. Can the market move if apple doesnt lead, or is apple itself . Apple bottomed the same almost the exact same day as the chinese stock market. And i bring that up because i think these smaller factors are for china. The chinese do not want cheap phones. The chinese are very aspirational. And i think that these phones are going to sell well in china, and thats one of the reasons why apples multiples expanding here, because china is what turned the company around, thats where the growth is, and these products i think are meant for china. If youre an apple investor. Youre not a trader. You buy youre getting rich carefully, jim. There uyou go. So, you own it for your kids. Is the most important thing to watch, then, not the products but the chinese economy . China. Well, it tracks the chinese the stock tracks the chinese stock market. Look, some things shouldnt happen. It shouldnt track the chinese stock market. I mean, now Steve Easterbrook last night talking about 3 00 they send me an email saying, listen, steves talking right now to the media, 3 00 a. M. Talk to us, for heavens sake i made the case to him, call in if hes going to talk to china at 3 00 a. M. , he should be talking to us. Another outlet, but he so, apple, the lesson is watch the chinese stock market and economy, period. Nike should buy it because they have lets get to that news. Starbucks should go through 60 because of china. China is very, very strong for the consumer versus where it was five months ago. Were talking dow in china. Lets talk about mcdonalds. Lets do that. Mcdonalds saying mcdonalds is really carls thing. He knows the company a lot better than i do. Easterbrooks my guy because he knows how i 1,000 new Stores Coming in china. Now yum brands which, by the way, i say easterbrook, come on, you know thats a real low number. Look how many yum brands has. I love the split doing such a good job all im saying is its naturally a positive. We automatically, oh, more stores, china, its great. Is it great automatically . Why not . Theyve got tons of room. Theyve got tons of room. Greg creed is telling you that china is coming back online for the consumer, and i have to tell you, i think that easterbrooks making the right move. Thats where the growth is. Ill tell you what, mcdonalds has got to be one of the 93 to 123. One of the most surprising stories of the last month. The stocks gone from 93 to 123 if you can bring up a oneyear chart of mcdonalds. The ceo gets swapped out. I know theres a lot of optimism around the relatively new ceo, breakfast all day, which also, by the way, is expensive for franchisees, the workers dont like it if you talked to any . Yes you know they bought in. Its expensive, some of the workers guys are thrilled its working, but how much longer can it work is my point, breakfast all day shouldnt [ everyone talking at once ] shouldnt add 13 billion market cap to a company. Why dont you talk to jack in the box and see. Theyve been eviscerated. Jack in the box is like it by stephen king. Ever read that . It, its a good one. Stephen king holds up. Jack in the box, by the way, is the only company i think that will give you a taco on the side of a cheeseburger. Jack in the box is the only one who lost share to chipotle. They own the ka doba chain they didnt pick up any share. So, who is . Panera did, although they actually denied no one everyone knows that any restaurant chain can be victimized, so no restaurant chain is ever going to slam another restaurant chain for e. Coli no, my friend, i beg to differ. Publicly. Nope. Let me give you two days taco two days ago i walk into my local panera. A big sign, it says our soups are clean. Thats on the door of my local panera. I go there almost every day. That may not have come from ron shaich, the ceo. No, i think its a local franchise. That may have been a local issue because i was debating putting that sign up at my restaurant. Just kidding. Just the luck of the draw for chipotle. And the Better Burger thing . Ill talk about it weve got 48 minutes to go. Also there is so much to talk about, dont freak me out here, man. We barely touched ge well touch on ge and talk about the mysterious chipotle thing you just said, but we also must tease this. A live and exclusive interview with canadas new Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau. Hear what he has to say about the country, about security, about oil slump on his economy talk about the currency. Susan lee will do the interview and will probably ask about the currency. That is an exclusive. You dont want to miss that. More squawk on the street coming up. Trugreen presents the yardleys. Hello . oh, pizza is here oh yeah, come on in [claps] woah lose the sneakers pal. Kind of a thing. Spring is on. Start your trugreen lawn plan today. Trugreen. Live life outside. We are just pounding through the dow components today. Lets talk ge. Ges capital unit, whats left of it, has officially filed to have its socalled sipi, or basically, too big to fail designation removed. Ge saying it is no longer a significantly Important Financial Institution. After all, it shedded a large number of assets, including yesterday selling its Asset Management business for 43 million. This is a day after the government struck down the governments designation of metlife as being too big to fail. Your reaction. First, i think ge said they were going to do this by the end of the quarter, so lets not think for a moment its on the heels of metlife. Second, theyve done a remarkable job ges Capital Receivables decreased, cash is up big. Really, the debt they have now is much more oriented towards selling equipment. Remember, you have to finance equipment. So you dont want to get out of financing entirely, because when you go buy some of their stuff, you really do need some financing. But the competition of ge capital i think is very safe, a lot of cash, a lot of nonu. S. And the idea that this company is still shouldnt be under sipi, a systematically Important Financial Institution and Financial Stability Oversight Councils in charge, its kind of ludicrous, so it is good that if you own youve been looking for this for a long time. Not a surprise. But it would be big to get out from under that. And the judge yesterday really slapped the Financial Stability oversight, saying big win for metlife. No due process. Lets talk more about this with mary thompson. Lets bring mary in here to talk to her about this. Fabulous. I know there are some big interviews this morning. Hey, brian. I just got off the phone with sherrin asking him about the d designation process and asking about his reaction to the ruling on metlife yesterday. He said he was surprised by the ruling, but it really doesnt affect ge because theyve taken, as is noted by this d designation application, a different approach to trying to get that sifi designation removed from ge capital. Now, he said over the course of the last few months, as jim pointed out earlier, this was expected by ge. They had said earlier they were going to apply for the d designation process. He says he has had constructive meetings with regulators. Theyve met with about ten regulatory agencies. And again, he called the tone of the meetings constructive. He says he wants the regulators to take away from this process how ge capital has fundamentally changed its business model, its funding model. It hasnt only shrunk the business, its changed the business. He said he would be disappointed if regulators did not decide to remove this sifi designation from ge capital. He said he is unsure as to when that might happen. But again, sharon saying hes surprised by the ruling, but again, it doesnt affect ge. They had long planned to apply for d designation. No word yet on timing as to when the regulators might review this and then make a decision as to whether or not ge capital no longer deserves that systematically Important Financial Institution designation. Back to you, brian. Mary, let me ask you its jim when you look at what theyve done and you look at what they can do, they still dont talk about some of the things that nelson peltz wants to do when theyre waiting for big shareholder and friend. Do you see this as being a moment where youre going to start hearing about a bigger dividend . I know are you going to start hearing about a much bigger buyback . Because ge was up huge last year, a big industrial. Is there more to go in terms of restructuring and returning of capital . Well, i would say yes, and ge has said that a number of times as well as theyve gone through this process of shrinking ge capital, et cetera, that they do want to return more shares or return more capital to shareholders. And remember, in the wake of the financial crisis, of course, ge had to cut its dividend, something that i think has weighed heavily on jeff immelt, who would like to return or increase the dividend going ahead. So, certainly that is a part of his plan. Nelson peltz would like them to do that as well, but i think right now theyre hoping for a positive reaction from the regulators to what theyve done at ge capital to get that d designation so they can move ahead with more capital returns to shareholders, which is already significant, again, in light of what theyve done with synchrony and the sales and changes theyve made within the businesses. Mary thompson, thank you very much. Jim, the transformation of ge people have owned it for generations. I dont think they realize how much the company has changed. I used to refer to it as a hedge fund that made light bulbs. Now they are neither, really. Not incandescent anymore. What is ge . We talked about it yesterday. Its a digitized industrial that has the highest organic growth, very levered to aerospace and health care, power management. The last acquisition i think was perfectly timed. They are a company that you bring in in order to manage your power, which is manage your water, manage very big things that they are up against companies that have been playing with weaker currencies. That could be over. Thats one of the reasons why ge can go much higher. You know, jeff immelt has done a remarkable job. He was really given the hedge fund hand. It took a long time to unwind, because they were a big owner of bulgarian giant mexican real estate company. Weve got to go to break. Why . Why is that . Because weve got to pay the bills, man. Im all over that, like a cheap suit, man we have a fascinating story coming up about former ge ceo jack welch and a company he could have bought for 2 billion, which is now worth hundreds of billions. Theres your tease. Well do that. Weve got jims mad dash, futures flat. Could be a good end of the month and the quarter. And stay tuned for that, a cnbc exclusive interview with Prime Minister of canada, Justin Trudeau in a cnbc exclusive. Stick around. Youre an at t Small Business expert . Sure am. My staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. At t can help you stay connected. Am i seeing double . No maam. Our at t buy one get one free makes it

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