Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20160701 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street July 1, 2016

We can see the s p looking some muted reaction this morning. Perhaps today will be a quiet day. How did europe do . Lets show you and see how it is doing. The markets wont close for a few more hours. There is a look at the uk. And germany and france. All of which are in the green. One week ago, a very different story, wasnt it, as you look, that still takes your breath away sometimes. 1. 419 on the 10year. Its 2016. Halfway through. Those people who get older, those ones, those guys who get in their like 50s and 60s have no place to invest. No kidding. No kidding. What do you do . Municipal bonds. Its a problem. Whats this we, you stuff . Ill be there soon enough. All right. Our road map this morning, starts with the first trading day of the second half where the market is heading as we turn the corner, oh, man, second half already. Hershey rejects a 23 billion takeover bid from mondelez. First we told you about that yesterday. The question now is, well what is next . What does the trust have to say . A lot more on that. Were going to get the pulse of the Auto Industry this morning. We got Sales Numbers from the big automakers that will be released. Phil lebeau will have them. Im not excited about this months auto numbers. No. Dont have a good feel for it. Talk stocks and maybe autos here as well. Coming off that threeday rally as we head into the second half of the year, resulting in whats a fourmonth winning streak for the s p. We have now five consecutive months of gains for the dow. Year to date the dow up almost 3 . Slightly better than the s p. They are tracking closely. The nasdaq, though, you can see weve talked about it, down biotechs continue to be a weak spot there. S p was the leader in the Second Quarter. That was up almost 2 . As we close the books on the first half of the year. Its now the fiscal year for many companies, organizations. Starts july 1. David, it was a period that if it werent for m a, i think and oil bottoming on february 10, february 11 i think it would have gone different and, obviously, the fed on hold with the fact that didnt really have we had a little nice run here based on what youre going to talk about mondelez, about starz and lionsgate. What im saying is that selfhelp takeovers where were the story because other than utilities and a couple big cap senior Growth Stocks there really hasnt been any. M a was a bigger story last year where we saw so many large deals. This year, many have been absent. The ones ive reported on havent happened, honeywell and utx which didnt happen and well see whether, in fact, hershey and mondelez really has a chance of happening. But, david, what i find interesting is that if you had you go back to last friday and the idea there could be a takeover, we thought that we were going to kr a credit freeze. There was no credit freeze because the actual we saw bank stocks go down but the credit market did not seize up. A lot of people came on air and predicted it would seize up. Its important to point out they were wrong. They were wrong. Its important. You know, were there a lot of people . It didnt feel like it people were worried somehow, even hate to use the al gory of lehman, but they were worried about that but seemed highly up likely and proved to be. Well, but look, i have to tell you when i look at monday was redemption day theyre calling it at bank of america. Global equity Fund Redemptions of 9. 5 million. Second largest dma ten years, ten years including the great recession. Thats empirical evidence that there was panic and i think that in itself just says you know what, another that was the worst day to redeem, the worst. The worst. What do you think of that. Why is that always the way it goes. Because people have no conviction. They buy high because its theres great momentum and when things go low they just panic because they dont know what they own. Tried to do education on the show but they dont know. We had james simons here yesterday, no longer involved in the daytoday management of Renaissance Technologies but more than any other person the man who created algorithmic trading, we dont just higher math ph. D. S, chemists, chemists, ph. D. S. I mean but thats whos running this market, jim. No volume and no people coming in and just saying i want to own 200 shares of amazon. The way that i when i was a broker at Goldman Sachs i would say i want to buy 200 shares of Berkshire Hathaway and you would say no, you have to buy the new jersey Turnpike Authority bonds. And they would you tussle over that and turns out that the Turnpike Authority bonds are great if youre ultrarich but im talking about finding Berkshire Hathaways. They are out there and weve seen them. Its not what people do anymore. That whole simon says for his part he thinks the market should be run by math geniuses who are programming and creating programmings to take advantage of price discrepancies based on historical relationships. Thats kind of where we are for the same reason if you like the german war youll buy the last days of berlin. Amazon knows and simons know. The machines know. Watson should be killing this market. Ibm. Watson. What would watson do if you put it in ibm. Would he short ibm. Thats a great question. I would like to ask that of watson. Make a note of that. I dont think ibm would be happy to have that question. You dont see that ad. Some stock guy, watson, what should i do. Short or long ibm. Actually do work with Financial Advisors to figure out the right allocations. Yes, and also the right suitability. Thats terrific use for watson. I want to move on to yesterdays story which is going to be todays to a certain extent and with fours a while and that is, of course, mondelezs quickly rejected bid to acquire hershey for 107 in cash and stock, something we reported on yesterday, of course, brought the price to you. Brought some of the conditions that mondelez was willing to offer the hershey trust. It was very quickly rejected. Interestingly, after months and months of negotiations, back and forth at least between the two companies and conversations, in which mondelez certainly was encouraged to think it had an opportunity here, and so somewhat surprised one would expect when it found itself on the receiving end of a press release yesterday, jim, that said, your indication of interest doesnt even give us a desire to pursue further discussions or a basis to be quote here specifically to pursue further discussions. 107 is not the price one might have anticipated if you were, in fact, mondelez. Yeah. There is ken goldman weighing in from jpmorgan. We expect mondelez to raise its bid. Our math it could go as high as 134 before the deal is delieutive. We think yesterdays bid was a starting point. What i know at this point so many moving parts here, you to remember that the trust is everything here. 80 of the vote private company that has a public they only own, i was incorrectly stating ta analystics. They statistics. They own about 8. 4 of the shares but the 80 vote is everything. Right. The relationship between the trust and the board of directors of hershey, when i speak to people who are familiar with that relationship and have tried to do deals in the past, its termed dysfunctional. Is it dow jones like. Thats a great question. It is thought to be dysfunctional or has been in the past. It may be better. One person who knows it well called it staggeringly dysfunctional a while back. Dysfunctional in heirs arguing with each other. Not heirs. A trust set up by milton hershey. Trustees, many of them its their only job. Sit on the trust and administer the funds and the economics which are the stake in hershey, the dividends received, and how to apportion the fund itself to provide for disadvantaged children. Thats their job. It doesnt mean that their thoughts are completely completely or in any way aligned with what it means to be a director on the board of hershey. Three of hersheys directors stand as trustees on the hershey trust. I know it gets complicated. Theres a look at some of the brands that mondelez owns. We understand why they might want to do it. Global chocolate empire. Willing to house our headquarters in hershey, pennsylvania, trying to appeal to the trust. Right now to your point about dow jones, nobody expects anybody would be silly enough to make the offer news corp did for dow jones, 60 bucks a share to get the family in line, but to that point, 10, many people this morning not only ken goldman at jpmorgan saying that was awfully low bid. That was. You got a lot to climb here, get the trust somehow to at least say, theyre willing to engage with their own board. You cant get the board to engage. 107 was not the number. Well see whether they choose to come back. More to get mondelez stock up . I have to tell you you ask all the great questions. I dont know the answer. Jim, if you were if you were somebody who wanted mondelez to be acquired, maybe even a board member. Or big shareholder. Or big shareholder. Like a hedge fund. Ackman kind of guy you say, or or youre a nelson, you say, you know, go for it. Go for it. But not going to bid high. What youve also done is potentially sent a signal out to the pepsis of the world, if ever wanted to do it now is the time because this company could get bigger and make it difficult and a different complexion. The ceo of pepsico is doing a terrific job and i dont think she needs to do this. She may have no interest. I dont know. But it does have that appearance. Mondelez stock was up yesterday, think it was up on the prospects of the potential deal or up also because of what youre talking about. I think that mondelez, i think its a shareholder base, they feel that roosevelt has to do something. I also feel that from the beginning this has been one they got in for transactions on people. Now that said, is it an underperformer . Its getting better, actually getting better. This is to the a static situation. I like mondelez more than i did a year ago. Right. But the idea of this, of a bid like the one that came out was fanciful. And that said were for sail sale, youre for sale, anything can happen. We want to do a transaction. You got a blair efron and food group. Youve talked about knowledgeable investment banker. How about kraft heinz. Kraft heinz needs to do a deal because they have no growth. No growth. General mills is beginning to get growth. They dont need. Mondelez regarded as a pantry company. It was a Good Opportunity in terms of the multiple right now theyre trading at given half of the considerations in stock. David youre making it sound like were going to hear Something Else but may not be with hershey. Well see. At this point what i can tell you mondelez hasnt figured out what it wants to do. There may be a Board Meeting on that subject. Do we raise and how do we proceed from here. They anticipate perhaps a better reception and maybe talk for a long time but never talk price and that may have surprised hershey when they saw 107. Why did it come out the last day of the quarter. The leaks. I know. We have to go because we have to hit auto sales on the other side. I had two more questions. Weve got a lot of directors resigning from the board of williams. Were going to tell you about that and why. Also, sara eisen has an exclusive interview with fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer. The heirloom tomato. When you cook with incredible ingredients. You make incredible meals. Fresh ingredients, stepbystep recipies, delivered to your door for less than nine dollars a meal. Get your first two meals free at blueapron. Com cook. Ford out with sales figures in june. Phil lebeau in chicago has the numbers. David, roughly in line with expectations. Ford sales in june rising 6. 4 . The estimate from edmonds. Com and an increase of 6. 2 . We got numbers from chrysler a few minutes ago. Theyre basically in line with expectations. Chrysler june sales up 6. 5 . The edmonds. Com estimate was for an increase of 6. 7 . Guys, the gm numbers in a little bit. I want to see what happens with these pickup numbers because ford, last month, guys, the fshgs series sales jumped 28. 6 . Pickups red hot for the auto groups. Thank you. Well check back in with gm. Want to remind people these are Big International companies so when you take your cue from just u. S. You miss the bigger picture. Latin america and china and youve got europe. So dont trade off of u. S. Good to hear the numbers werent a shortfall. Im worried about latin america. These companies are too big. Youre worried. Latin america is, to use your term, dysfunctional. And there are companies that have never been in venezuela which could sink anything. Speaking of dysfunctional want to focus on williams. Didnt think we would be coming back to this company after its deal to be acquired by ete, scuttled by a delaware court. There is an appeal under way but doesnt mean much of anything. Im sure you noted the journal had it but i can tell you no release from williams at this point that half the board of the directors at williams said see you later. Were resigning. We do not believe the current ceo of the company Alan Armstrong should be leading this company. We wonder significantly about the future of that company. We believe and im paraphrasing from conversations, of course, ive had not going to tell you with who, we needed a change at the top, how is this Company Going to be managed . Well, we dont know, but those did not have confidence in mr. Armstrong. They are the chairman of the company, mr. Mcginest, ralph izzo, a Public Company ceo on this board. Yeah. And the two hedge fund guys. Eric mandelblatt and Keith Meister from core vex. They have all stepped off the board of directors resigned because of what had been a series of missteps by this company. Not the deal with ete but the daytoday management of the Company Prior to that and there was a feel on the board that, of course, were going to change the ceo now that we will remain independent. That did not happen. Talking about a company that missed guidance for five years running some would say, gone from three times levered to six times levered with less coming in the door in terms of cash flow. And so they were looking for somebody to embrace a new strategy to a certain extent and they were surprised when they found a fight on their hands amongst the directors about whether mr. Armstrong should stay. No word from williams. Still waiting for the press lease from the Company Confirming what others have also the journal had and we can tell you as well. I need you to put this in context, viacom, new set of directors, williams, something new here that directors totally different situations. Unrelated. I cant draw necessarily a corollary. Viacom getting back together with cbs and kraft getting back together with mondelez . That is just bankers never stop. Forget shrink to grow. Grow to grow. The forget what i said three months ago. Ive covered the williams. Now remember a lot of individuals own these because these are great im curious what you think i want to make one point here which is that my understanding is that sorebun and core vex which own 11 of the company, maybe more, are not going to sell their stock. Obviously stepping off the board any restrictions that might have applied and varies board to board are no longer in the case theyve got one here, but theyre not going to sell is my understanding. In fact, interestingly, they may be put in the position of stepping off a board so they can actually try to get shareholders more actively involved, i use that term, to get rid of the current ceo. Thats a weird one. Wow. Activist investor on a board stepping off so that you can get rid of the current ceo. Meister what did he do with when he had that situation with adt. He got the company to buy. Company bought his stock when they stepped off. Right. Raises eyebrows. Left a bad taste. That is not the case here. That is not the case here. Certainly would not appear to be the case here. Overall, i know you know oil and gas, very well. The combination was a sweet combo. Too bad. You think its too bad. Do you buy williams here at 21, given the turmoil on the board and Everything Else . The leverage is daunting. Natural gas has been strong. Dont talk about natural gas enough. I just fear leverage in that group because i had my head cut off by Kinder Morgan. Just have to put it out there. I got Kinder Morgan very wrong and i just was hoping that rich kinder wouldnt have had to cut that dividend. He is a very shrewd man but didnt work. Kind of staying away. When you see turmoil like that in a board it might be a sign take a pause here. We will come back with jims mad dash as we count down to the opening bell. Take one more look at futures. Also a live interview by the way with fed vice chairman stan fisher coming up. Were going to have relatively flat open. We got six minutes to the opening bell and i can already smell the burgers and dogs on the grill for this weekend. Its getting closer. Or tofu if youre my kids. Sometimes a piece of research comes out that is just says people should go buy something now even though the near term may not be that good. A piece today about netflix. And its detailed geographic analysis to growth. It has people buzzing. What i like about it why i like this, subscriber growth should be strong in medium and long term. Next two quarters less certain. They basically told you, look, its not going to run into the quarter. Dont get excited about the quarter. I like this because it is a longterm story. This is about the idea that theyre going to not have an existential crisis against all the other companies we talk about say an amazon, and when like at this piece i say okay, those who want to know netflix, you should read this. Know what you own so when the next quarter comes out and its not that good you wont flip out and sell it which is what we were talking about the notion of panicking. This piece makes you feel better about netflix if you want to own it and they just raised my netflix bill. They did. 9. 99. Im up there. I was one of those charter guys. Right. I pay 12 for it. Reed hastings, i would pay more for that and more for amazon prime. Bezos clearly watches the show. Of course. What else is there to do, 9 00 to 10 00. Hes in seattle. How do big ceoss get anything done in the morning with our show . I dont know. 9 00 to 10 00. I dont

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