Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20161103 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street November 3, 2016

Ahead without a vote from parliament. Watch bonds as odds on december approach 80 and oil is up for the first time in five. Road map begins with facebook, Company Reported beat but investors focusing on the cfo comments of slowing Revenue Growth. Fitbit shares getting clobbered this morning. Poised to open lower by 30 . Just as competition grows in the wearable sector. And the election days away, polls show trump and clinton neck and neck. Both candidates making the rounds in battleground states today. But facebooks our top story, down in the premarket. The social Networks Revenue outlook overshadowing those better than expected quarterly results. This is the cfo on last nights earnings call. Ad load has been one of the three primary factors fueling that growth, with a much smaller contribution from this important factor Going Forward, we expect to see ad Revenue Growth rates come down meaningfully. Secondly, on expenses. Though it is premature to provide specific expense guidance, as mark mentioned we anticipate 2017 will be an aggressive investment year, adding top engineer talent remains one of our key Investment Priorities as we continue to execute on our three, five and tenyear growth map. A lot of downgrades on this one. People sort of knew this time would come, fair to say. Yes, stock at 125 when the three words echoed, meaningfully aggressive, went to 124, got to 123 when they said aggressive and then it just went right down to 118 when it said substantially as in substantial expenditure growth. This is a company where basically those three words were fighting words meaning take 2018 numbers down from 7 to maybe 6. 50, maybe to 6. 20. I do not think that was correct. Thats what the knee jerk reaction was. When you take the quarter in totality, Revenue Growth of 56 to 7 billion. 2. 4 billion in not nongap, but gap revenue. 2. 5 million from free capital, those three words overshadowed everything which i think is ridiculous. Youre talking about a market of 1 trillion in advertising that they want to capture some of. What do they really have of it right now . They have a very small fraction of it. And because theyre spending so much money, they want it everywhere. I thought this was an incredibly really, really unbleefu unbelievable call. Im not backing away one bit and not cutting numbers, easily goes 7 to 7. 50 in 2018 and cheaper than pepsico. I got the same message from a number of investors i spoke to this morning, jim. Grant it they own the stock, but they also follow the company closely and they were not surprised that the company was talking about deceleration of any type because theyd been talking about that. In the Second Quarter numbers they sent a similar message. Obviously the law of large numbers plays a role here. The fact they are going to be investing or taking the ad load down as they said in 17, but youre still talking about an expectation of a 35 top line growth rate in 17. Yes. And 27 in 18. And youve got people now looking at estimates on 18 that are about 16. 5, 17 times the stock. Thank you for saying that. Thats a multiple based on what the estimated Revenue Growth rate is even with significant deceleration seems to me to be pretty compelling, at least again to those who own the stock. Pepsico has double digit growth and therefore gets a 22 multiple. I think this company has much more upside in growth than pepsico. And i use pepsico for the Gold Standard now for consumer products. I found that this quarter was remarkable and zuckerberg spends the whole time talking about all these new venues hes going to be able to advertise on ultimately. Which means that the ad load for the traditional product is not wont be as taxing. He wants to keep the product great. But look, if the stock was at 130, people felt it had run up. Its one of those run up in the quarters of 22 , they want to take profits. I think the company when they added the word meanfully when it came to growth rates people freak out. Meaningfully and material, material is code word for 10 decline from your numbers, taking your numbers down 10 , go from 7 to 6. 30, 6. 30, slash lower multiple and slash a 20 multiple on and thats how you get to where the stock is. I dont buy any of that. I agree with david. I think the multiple is going to be too low in 2018. By the way, the expenses are actually going down as a relative amount. Right. People thought they were going up. I mean, you have to marvel at the performance of the companys yes. Thank you. Incremental margin. 70 increase. Top line basis if you take out m a, they are growing twice as fast as any other u. S. Company with 20 billion or more in revenue. This International Company of you know, we sit there and we think, hold on, wait a second, theyre up to 1. 2 billion users, they check it every day. 1. 2 billion users. How many people watch the super bowl . How many people watched last night . With that 17minute rain delay. Not to mention 93 on mobile. And there youve got i mean, i remember when this Company Started they were talking about some sort of Chinese Gaming Company that Sheryl Sandberg had spoken to. Now theyre talking about she drops names at Proctor Gamble and gm and the incremental amount theyre talking about increasing op x by to hire engineers i think is over 5 billion. It seems almost inconceivable they could find enough people. Well, they have theyre building like four seasons like dorms to get the people. And the fact their earnings came on a day where gannett, the journal with layoffs, the times ad revenue is falling at 15 , 19 at these legacy companies. I had clorox on last night, one of the smartest consumer packaged goods. His budget from 10 social media to 40 . It goes up every time i speak to him. And its facebook. And google. And google. Thats it. Thats more or less the entire marketplace. He said the return on investment for facebook and google is so much greater than and the bigger they get, the more data they have, the better they are in terms of giving an advertiser better what theyre getting. If you back out facebook and google, u. S. Ad spend estimated fallen five in the quarter. I put up a picture of my dog sleeping where i like to sleep and second most watched thing we had and most common on piece ive done in years. Look, if you make fresh pet, if you make dog food, i mean you say i got to target that guys thing, well, what do they know about me if im watching the game last night . They dont know jack about me. Okay. But they know that i have two rescue dogs and ill do anything i can to not have the collar on them so i will use that new make it so the dogs dont itch. I dont know if you have dogs or not. You dont have anything. I forgot. Not for now. I got nothing right now. There is talk of a dog, but well get to that another day. Theres no talk of anything at your house. You probably didnt watch the game. You probably dont have tivo. You probably cut the cord. Probably cut my cord. I cut your cord. Im cutting your cord right now. Whatever one is going in there. Go ahead. But i am saying this facebook is such a juggernaut, look, theres 7. 2 billion people on earth. What is their goal . Their goal is to have 7. 2 billion people on facebook. Do you think thats not going to be where a trillion dollars in ad spend is going to go . All in video talking with each other. Whos going to pay for all that bandwidth, thats what i want to know. These guys. No, they just live off of it. Somebodys got to come up with a way to transmit all this video effectively. Because right now im still getting the windmill all the time. I get that circle of death. Yeah. Circle of death, i had that last night when i was watching sports. Now, this is the greatest gross margin Free Cash Flow story of alltime. Because the cfo uses the word meaningfully in otherwise one of the most beautiful texts ive seen, thats putting a mustache on mona lisa here theres no mustache on mona lisa, thats a painting, david. I have seen it. Behind glass. So you went somewhere. I did. Well get to some other earnings, politics though, donald trump and Hillary Clinton battling it out in the stretch here. Our chief washington correspondent john harwood is in ohio with the latest. Good morning, john. Good morning, carl. We are in lima, ohio. You know, we cover this election, but these people behind me are the one who is are living it. This is a beehive of activity. It is the allen county republican headquarters. Youve got people behind me whove been phone banking, theyre making signs, theyre rallying to get out the vote for donald trump. And this is a state that right now if you look at the quinnipiac poll that came out yesterday, donald trump is doing very well. He looks in position to take this away from Hillary Clinton in the democratic column. Quinnipiac poll out yesterday showed donald trump ahead by five Percentage Points and one of the reasons is counties like this. Look at the 2012 election results, mitt romney beat barack obama 61 37, almost twotoone in this county. This is very strong donald trump country. I talked a few minutes ago to keith cheney who for 20 years has been the chairman of the Republican Party in this county, he said more enthusiasm for donald trump than any republican nominee hes seen during that entire time. And i asked him why. I think its two factors. First of all, i think theres just the anticlinton factor. Which allen county is a strong republican county, as are our surrounding counties. And i think that as the voters look back and say, you know, not another clinton. And quite frankly we heard that during the primary on our own side, not another bush. And so i think the propensity of excitement quite frankly comes from somebody new, something different. Not your typical quote unquote politician. And certainly mr. Trump has laid out there that hes not your typical politician. And hes done his share of making that quite clear. Now, guys, this also happens to be the home district of jim jordan, he is the chairman of the House Freedom caucus. Thats much in the news right now because they had a meeting yesterday, theyre trying to figure out their stance after the election. Some in the Freedom Caucus are even talking about alternatives to paul ryan as the house speaker. So in addition to the president ial drama, the senate race drama and in ohio rob portman is about to on the verge of winning a reelection. That will help republicans if theyre able to hold the senate. But republicans are likely to hold the house. Paul ryans fate is in the balance. And well be talking later this morning to jim jordan, one of the people who will help determine if hes still going to be speaker. John, thanks for that. Well talk to you later this morning. Our john harwood in ohio. Pesos up a bit this morning. As john mentioned, reuters still has clinton up six. Abc has her back up two. Are we in this period now where we walk into the office and check the abc the Washington Post tracking . 538 was doing every ten minutes last night. I was watching the game, going back and forth, 538 is doing instant updates now which is the site on espn. When i first got involved with property in mexico, which was six years ago, the ratio was 111 on the peso. Now its 181. Thats a fiveyear period that a currencys gone from 111 to 81. That is the most this is a country next to us, okay. That is one of the most incredible declines. This is not turkey. Its not some country in africa where theyve had hyperinflation. This is literally a country where the wages were 5 an hour. Is there a way to play this . Ive tried and the only way to do it, david, is something youre not going to want to do. You have to buy real estate. And actually have three or four houses for you, if you would like that. Are they near your compound . I hope so. Were going to do the show from there one day, jim. Im not going to have cable, so im going to come over and watch your house. Its going to be odd having tequila at 9 00, but well do it anyway. Down there theres really not a time constraint. Its true. But we have factories, mercedes benz, lexus, bmw, and the workers are making 3 an hour and no health care and the pollution you can do whatever you want and theres a train line goes right up three times a day union pacific. Not to sound like a guy whos running for president , but why would you ever make a car here if you knew that ratio . Yeah, when we come back a morning to forget for fitbit. Shares of the Wearables Company taking a beating down 29 . We got to get jims take on that. Also had an exclusive with superstar Quarterback Tom Brady on everything from under armour to the nfls tv ratings to donald trump. Take another look at the premarket as the yeartodate gains are now narrowing. Dow up 31, s p 26, back after a break. The pursuit of healthier. It begins from the second were born. Because, healthier doesnt happen all by itself. It needs to be earned every day. Using wellness to keep away illness. And believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. As a Health Services and Innovation Company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. So while the world keeps searching for healthier were here to make healthier happen. Fitbit getting hammered in the premarket. The company missing on their full year guidance and quarterly revenue as it faces heightened competition. This is what james park told jim last month on mad money. Can i trust versus what ultimately results will be . You know, without knowing how the analyst did the channel checks, i cant really say. But what i can say is, look, we just started shipping the product. Fitbit charge 2 is the number one best selling fitness tracker on amazon. You know, we launched two other great products earlier this year, and if you remember the investor reaction to blaze was, i think, just you know i couldnt understand it at all. And even today blaze is the number one selling smart watch on amazon. Well, b of a is doing more channel checks today because they go buy to sell. Yeah. In the old days i think i would just be cast incredible dispersions across mr. Park. I think whats happened here is hes looking at a rather surprisingly hes looking at amazon and making a judgment about how im actually implying honesty here. Okay. That hes looking at amazon and saying thats how things are selling. Obviously that was not the tell. The channel checks referring to were saying from Pacific Crest saying sales had dropped off a cliff. And he was refuting that with looking at how its doing on amazon. And that was obviously either completely inaccurate as a reader on the company. But it says to me heres a man who obviously is not in touch with how his company is selling the product. This was not that long ago. This was less than a month ago, in a quarter where the numbers were falling hard. And he is quoting numbers from amazon when the companys numbers, which i think obviously are broader than amazon, were dramatic shortfall. So i dont know what to make of it. It would be like, hey, i dont know what youre talking about. Your guy is looking all over the place everywhere saying things are bad. But if you go check amazon were number one and it was indicative of nothing. And mr. Park, i think, has lost any credibility. And i think that fitbit is now done. Done . I think everybody who has a fitbit everybody who wants a fitbit has one. I dont want to talk conclusions about apple. I think apple can draw conclusions, but i think its done. I think it was ultimately something people who wanted it bought one. You dont need the new ones, thats what this is saying. And someones saying well now isnt someone going to take it over . Well, you dont buy companies in decline. So this is a crippled company . Yeah. And a company that doesnt know anything apparently about its markets the way i thought it did. I was actually thinking, well, if he thinks amazons number one, what hes really saying is i cant tell you what the numbers are. But, jim, i mean, if you did your homework and you look ed october 6th. Right, it was not long ago. Right. I mean, did he not know that sales were falling apart . He just looked at amazon. I remember when my book was number one on amazon. I didnt tell you, hey, listen, im selling millions of books. No, i was number one on amazon for a couple of days. Hey, millions and millions sold. Like mcdonalds. No. Either he doesnt know his company or he dissembled. I am saying the first. He seems like an honest man. I think he doesnt know his company. But i think his companys credibility and his credibility are shot. Theyre just done. Paying a price today. When we come back well get cramers mad dash, well countdown to the opening bell. Later this hour the head of aig Peter Hancock going to join us at post nine. Stocks down on some earnings news. Get to futures and more on the nyse after a break. Were drowning in information. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. Mary buys a little lamb. One of millions of orders on this companys servers. Accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. But with Cyber Threats on the rise, marys data could be under attack. With the help of at t, and security that senses and mitigates Cyber Threats, their Critical Data is safer than ever. Giving them the agility to be open secure. Because no one knows like at t. [ technical difficulties ] out as the coceo. Oh, are we . Am i miming . Are we miming . Were good. Were not miming . I was hearing you fine, but the rest of the world may not have been. Whole foods right. Mad dash. All right. Now i got to cut it short i guess. Out as coceo of whole foods. Thats not why the stocks up. Numbers were better than expected. John mackey is a little less subtle, hes saying same store sales are still not what we want. 365, the new form factor, some good, some bad.

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