Remains on precarious footing. The glass is half full. The Global Economy has been resilient, but at is tame time you look at the big picture how weak the growth is, we should be concerned. Chinese exports sink in may, missing the forecast by a wide mar jij. Its over concerns of a weak economy at home. Surge at the top of the stoxx 600 after the First Quarter profits jump despite rising cost pressures. Good morning, everybody, and a warm welcome to street signs. Well kick off the show with fresh forecasts. The oecd has slightly raised it growth the organization said it sees inflation falling to only 4. 7 next year well above central bank targets, driving its forecast that the feds will cut rates modestly. Its not just oecd. The world bank now protecting World Economic growth to decelerate down from 3. 1 in 2022 the group says higher Interest Rates have put the World Economy in a precarious condition. Tighter Credit Conditions are starting to hit emerging markets with one economy in four effectively losing access to International Bond markets the deputy chief economist told me that the downward pressure is coming from everywhere. Advance economies have become quite resilient. Then look at the emerging market thanks to the contribution of china, theres growth. But the growth will slow down from 4 to 2 . So all in all, there is a slowdown in the Global Economy, and 70 of countries will see Slower Growth this year than last year. And what is causing that global slowdown. Is it simply because were in a much higher Interest Rate environment . How much can be pinned back to monetary financing i think the Interest Rates, you know, have been increased significantly. We are going through the fastest and steepest tightening cycle over the past four decades, and it has been increasing around the world and it plays, of course, an important role. I thought what you said about emdes quite interesting, merge marke markets developing economies if you move china, its actually only 2. 9 . China has been playing a significant role after it is reopening. Of course, there were expectations that china would really deliver a much higher growth, but increasingly we see that china growth is driven by domestic consumption in especially the services sector, and its not the type of growth that will have huge spillovers for the rest of the world, but we are hopeful that china will sustain this growth. But in general the weakness is there. Its interesting you say that because definitely the market narrative in the last couple of weeks has changed. People are beginning to be a little bit concerned about the pace of the recovery coming out of china if you look at some of the fierce indicators. Would you say thats also supportive of your own outlook for china and how growth is going to pan out in the second half of the year indeed we see that highfrequency indicators suggesting a slowdown, not in china. In many places in the world. You see that, you know, the companies. I think this weakness will be because in the second half of the year and next year it will continue we are expecting a kind of recovery next year in the Global Economy, but its going to be a tepid one. The important point to remember is the following this year Global Economy will deliver growth lower than what we saw in 2010 on average. This is true for advanced economies and its true for the emerging market. You know, the glass is half full the Global Economy has been resilient. But at the same time you look at the big picture how weak the growth is, we should be concerned. That was part of my conversation with the World Bank Group who unveiled their lastest e latest economic conditions. On the topic of china, overnight we did have some Interesting Data come through. China exports dropping 7. 5 year on year. That was much worse than the forecast of 1. 8 percentage points, so thats sort of setting the tone for asian markets overnight. We saw chinese equities slip a little bit coming off the pressure the Overall Index is off by 0. 2 this is breaking some of the price action that we had out of the u. S. Yesterday with the wall street indices, all ending the day higher worth noting now the s p has actually closed at a high for 2023, a 20 jump since last october. So it has been steadily climbing higher a much reluctant rally, people call it. Not a lot of people believe it could take place, but, indeed it has. Over here in europe the picture is slightly different with the Index Trading in the red this is the breakdown. Pretty much all of them are trading under water with the exception of ibex in spain, which is up 0. 2 were watching one company that posted very strong results for the last couple of months. Their sales out of the Spring Summer collection boosting that stock. Its up about five percentage points, right at the top of the stoxx 600. Luxury coming under pressure whenever you have weakness coming out of china, that has effects on luxury items. The ftse down by six points or eight bases points lower were seeing pressure on some of the commodity names that did so well in the beginning of the week in terms of sector, weve got leadership again, a bit of a bounce in the miners, but overall theyve been a drag on the flip side weve got insurance down about 0. 7 and chemicals lagging as well. In terms of u. S. Futures, i did mention the big rebound we had in u. S. Stocks did mention the s p has actually closed at the high for 2023. Today, though, it looks as though all three are going to be opening up into negative territory. Investors are now eyeing very closely what is going to happen at the next Central Bank Meeting next week. A big, big decision for the feds. One other currency i want to draw your attention to ever since the election result is the turkish literatra down about 7 today alone, and this tells you that the markets are still very nervous about the prospects of what another erdogan presidency means that is the picture for the turkish lira today. As i mentioned at the top of the show, chinese exports did tumble far more than expected in may. Down 7. 5 of the year. Much, much more than the 4. 8 . The trade surplus also narrowed sharply. Im really happy to say a good friend of the Program Joins us good morning to you. Wonderful to have you on street signs. I want to ask you about how youre piecing together all of the data thats been coming out of china it feels like the narrative is changing so much a month ago people were so geared up and now its true. Every single data point seems to be disappointing to the downside. Its very interesting because this reading of the export import data is worrying when you look at imports, its mostly airports and reserves, preparing for some downturn. I think there is a bit of a black hole issue, right . We dont really know whats happening in china, but through some of the day articulate we see the reopening is limited, very domestic, very disappointed, and now we enter a few phase, which is china promised a lot of growth and has to basically put a lot of policy support to make this growth happen so its not boding well, i would say, for the second half of the year when it comes to the Global Growth momentum because china seems to be very disappointing in its reopening, nothing compared to the reopening we had in europe and the u. S. In 2021 for sure. Its interesting because i feel as though the narrative around whats going the happen the second half of the year is going to change now especially because there is a lot of evidence to suggest that the Inflation Numbers have started dropping were seeing it in europe as well sit is it your view that because china has not recovered as anticipated, this allows for the deflationary pressures to pick up for the second half of the year definitely, you know, we had expected that chinas reopening would bring at least a third of a point of additional inflation, say for europe, for example. We dont see the growth dividend either somehow this lesser momentum in china is good for the overall supply of critical inputs. Its good for the overall pressure on the commodity market this is what we see. It is helping the deflationary pressures, realizing, materializing as Central Banks have done on the heavy lifting and tightening and trying to bank on the embedded tightened at a very high level all the way through the rest of 2023. Ludovic, good morning its julianna here china is certainly not in the business right now there is talk and there is mounting expectation they could provide some further support to try to reignite the recovery what kind of support, what sectors do you expect to benefit from any support in the coming months from the authorities . You know, when you see pmi usually collapse in china, it ee time for support i think theyve already announced some measures on it for banks. I think the Housing Market is still very worried to a lot of people they had a 2012 moment in china. I dont think this one is over the savings function of the chinese has been affected durably with a lot of defiance into the system. So i think they may have to do something with the housing sector and to be fair, theyre still very focused on decarbonation and making sure they move up so its still extended into this new prime ministers term with a bit of an edge, which is we have to do a lot more domestic dividend search rather than export search because they hear the out bbound protection is voices from the g7 summit and they feel theres going to be quite some difficulties Going Forward when it comes to competing with the rest of the world in imports theyre again talking about an exception reform in china to provide something to the chinese. So there are, i think, several plans on the table, and a lot of that would be in, ill say, september or october. Great to have that time range to look forward to, that date range. Let me ask you a longer term question about china one of the most worrying statistics ive seen in the last several months out of china is the youth Unemployment Rate standing at a recordhigh 20 . Weve been well aware of this line flat movement for years now. How big of a risk is social unrest in china on a five to 10ye 10year view you know, its a tough question six or eight months ago, everybody was calling for a moment and nothing happened. I think social risk is really top of the agenda in terms of Risk Management for the authorities. So i think the visk very low because they would be ready to do a lot gto avoid that. Thats why i think the social agenda is really top of the mind social protection reform you mentioned jobs for young people remember that this reopening is dislocating jobs we see that also in the west they have to rethink a lot of the narrative when it comes to you know, you can get rejected from your job before you get old. This is something china is actively working on. With this duo issue, they have to do that in a world thats changing, and when theres a bit more fragmentation is around, right . But i think they take that very seriously. I would not underestimate their ability. Look how they stabilize the Housing Market we had, remember in spain, 25 , 30 Unemployment Rate during the crisis, right . So remember how you can address this type of shock with longterm rebuilding of the social contract. I think china is very committed to that and acting very strongly about it. Ludovic, thank you for joining us this morning. Now, we have some sad news to share with you this morning the longtime ceo sir ivan menezes has passed away at the age of 63. He had been planning to retire at the end of this month menezes had been at diageo since the merger shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and its ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation tv and get 2 months free every single day, just businesses everywhere are asking the exact same question is it possible . Well. With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to help keep our Online Platform safe from cyberthreats . So we can better protect our Customer Data . Awwyeah. Absolutely. What else you got . Can we use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . Before they even exist . We can help with that. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that, too. Even out here. You, sir. Something on your mind . Is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations . With wifi analytics . Easy. Order for nina can i teleport our guests to their rooms . Technically, no. Or power thousands of mobile checkins while thousands of other guests check out . Now that we can do. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. The ussec is suing coinbase in that theyre not trading regulators that are not securities Brian Armstrong accused them of an approach that he says is harming the u. S. Meanwhile the s. E. C. Has asked the court to freeze the finance with regard to ignoring laws it shows over 1. 4 billion of user assets were pulled from the platform in the wake of the s. E. C. s accusation of fraud against the company. Arjun joins us for more. Its been quite a busy 24 hours for s. E. C. Where do we go from here and what does it actually mean for the Crypto Community yeah, firstly just in regards to coinbase, theres a few potential packths it could take locked in a lawsuit. If s. E. C. Wins this lawsuit, it could be a detriment to coinbase first, it may have to separate the various businesses that the s. E. C. Has accused it of comingling, and i may have to register with the s. E. C. The second outcome is a large amount of fines. Its seeking what they say is diskourjt of ill gotten gains and penalties. This means coinbase would have to pay back any gains a the bigger issue here is for the market and for the industry, binance, of course, also in the sights of the s. E. C. And coinbase, accounts for around 60 of trading volumes this year trading volumes have been extremely thin its been propped up by pretty large investors at this point. So this could introduce more volatility into the market for the broader future of the industry and the u. S. , there is this battle, this debate waging between the two sides, between the crypto industry on the one side and s. E. C. On the other theyre saying, look, the rules for us are not clear and the s. E. C. Is enforcing regulation at this point. We dont know what were allowed and not allowed to do. The s. E. C. On the other side says, look, security rules have been in place for years. Its clear what you can and cannot do at this point. Theres a hope from industry and coinbase that actually this lawsuit might be a good thing. Going to court might be a good thing. It may help to set out what the precedent is and really what the rules around crypto would be so thats really whats going on at the moment in the industry. Theres a lot of regulatory overhang its going to be watching for implications that it could have for the future of crypt cryptoc cryptocurrencies. Thanks for bringing us the latest twist in the crypto world. Venture capital it is known for saying software is eating the world is making an exception for ai in a 7000 word mission if what he refers to as ai doomers, he believes nobody has no need to worry and he insists Artificial Intelligence may save the world augmenting human intelligence. Concerns about ai have reduced compared to five years ago, that was according to research by Boston Capital group nick joins us now. Thanks so much for being with us this morning fascinating survey results weve had a chance to look through this morning one of the most interesting things in my mind was geographics and how attitudes differ across the countries. India, the most optimistic when it comes to ai france the least optimistic or the most concerned what should we read into that . Really interesting. Most countries are really optimistic, brazil, india, middle east. Least optimistic, u. S. , uk, japan, europe. I think partly its because in the media theres been a lot of negative stories also developed countries have been through lots of periods of restructuring and making technological changes. How has the emergence of chatgpt changed attituded or changed the narrative around ai . Its been an absolute gamechanger five years ago when we asked about how optimistic they were, people were more concerned than optimistic in this survey 50 of the people we spoke to said theyre optimistic about the opportunities. If you look at whats happened, it took spotify 150 days to get to 1 million days. It took instagram 75 days. It took chatgpt five days. The take has been enormous as they see what they can do with it, theyll become more optimistic about the opportunities for their work. Optimistic about the opportunities, but also concerned about the ramifications of their work as well i thought this statistic was interesting. 19 think their jobs going to be transformed or eliminated by Artificial Intelligence. Thats quite a scary figure. Is there not also the view that its going to transform the way the labor market operate that concern is very real and very understandable. Every wave of technological change for over 200 years since the start of the Industrial Revolution has been very inte interruptive it will create new work. Well get some things replaced but more work augmented by Artificial Intelligence. Whats interesting in the report is 86 of the people say i need help developing the skills to take advantage so thats a massive job to address this governments, companies can help peo