And on the eve of the iphone Product Launch tomorrow and well look at the implications and insta cart aint worth what it once was and its valuation a fraction of what it was, and is that bullish for investors who get in now . That plus the latest on arm which is reportedly seeing Strong Demand ahead of its offering later this week and chinas economic problems should come as a surprise to no one says derek scissors. Weve had 14 years to see this coming. The question is where does he see things going from here and what does he see for u. S. Companies like apple and tesla. First, lets get the latest on the markets. Some green. Some green, but were off the best levels of the session and the bulls might take solace because the medium term has been a very interesting story for the markets and losing some steam and we have all lost steam in just the intraday session, as well. The s p 500, the more broader measure, 4479 sitting almost on top of the rolling basis and some traders tend to use the level as perhaps indicators of trends. So its sitting right at a critical level right now up about onehalf of 1 or 22 points. At the highs of the session we were up about 33 points and even at the lows of the session we were up about ten. That gives you an idea of the trading range so far today and tilting in the middle of that and generally positive. The dow industrials up onequarter of a percent and the nasdaq composite up 97 points to 13,855. More on that independnasdaq tra just a bit. Cryptocurrencies, specifically bitcoin because were seeing levels right now at 25,100 and change that are just at the low end of the range that weve seen since midjune and you can see thats the upper end and the lower end is where were sitting at right now. What i want to point out is what analysts and traders are looking at and that is the crossing of the 50day average price on a moving basis down toward the 200 day or longer term price. Some folks may look at this and say maybe this is a change in the direction overall in the market, a change in trend to the down side, but bitcoin prices trying to hold on to the 25,000 level depending on which indicator you look at. It did dip briefly below that at one point today. On the stockspecific side, watch oracle shares right now and theyre reporteding after the closing bell today. Artificial intelligence and the Oracle Cloud Infrastructure and right now its up threequarters of 1 and the Options Market is pricing in a roughly 4. 5 to 5 move in the stock up or down and just to give you context thats historically what has been over the last eight quarters worth of reports and then the semiconductors and qualcomm youll get to in just a bit, kelly, i know this and thats one of the only bright spots in the semiconductors today and advanced micro, kla corp and nvidia were some of the bigger laggards containing the mediumterm downtrend in some of the chip stocks. Ill send things back over to you. Thank you very much. Dom chu. Staying with semi, qualcomm shares are jumper more than 4 after apple renewed a deal for modems. Apple was using its intomorrowly developed modem and risks are growing for apple, tensions with china, emergence of ai and weak consumer demand for devices. Joining me now is laura martin, senior internet and analyst at needham and steve kovac is with us, as well. Welcome to you both. Laura, it doesnt seem like this i dont know, the apple shares arent moving up on this. The larger questions are still probably just china and demand. Agreed 100 . It looks like maybe biden is trying to thaw relationships with china. Thats best for apple and disney who have big operations in china. Each of them are about 20 of their revenue on apples side and 20 of theme park revenue for disney. So it would be really great if we didnt go to war figuratively or literally with china. Its interesting you say that because obviously the president has been in vietnam. He was just in india. Lately hes been corralling allies like korea and japan to form this. It looks like unfortunately, the u. S. Is preparing for a more tense future with china. It has these agreements with india to build out its own i dont want to call it a builtin road, but to push back a little bit, but where and how shouldwe read the signals that we think the administration and maybe its the trip and more to come is trying to thaw things . I think what theyre trying to say is theyll make these countries choose. Theyll put them in a position that, look, if you want to the do business with the u. S. Which is 20 of global gdp you need to be friendly with the u. S. So theyre want going to allow them to take chinas side. So i think that negotiates from a position of strength because both china and america understand that theyre worth more together than opposed to one another. So i think thats what theyre trying to do is get these traditional, regional allies of china into the u. S. Basket of closer relations. One more and then i want to bring in steve. One leg of the stool seems to be china and another weak, consumer demand and maybe you can add to that. What do you think some of the biggest concerns are for you with the stock . So, yeah, definitely the china demand which would nearterm threaten 20 of the revenue now that apple isnt allowed to bring offices to china and more importantly to me, this generative ai and Large Language Models and almost every business will have to integrate generative ai to lower its cost and to drive its revenue and of course, meta and apple will do that for themselves and who will make money are the arms dealers in the cloud. Thats eight of the u. S. , amazon and googles three language models withal fabbet and open ai. So those will be the backbone of American Business in my opinion in the next ten years and they get the benefit of charging, say a 30 tax on every revenue dollar, every business in america. True. Apple does not. Thats really interesting. So, steve, one of the things that made me think twice is the investor i follow wrote in the past week or so about how bullish he is on, kid you not, apples new headset. Unlike the meta offering which is sealed off from the world and more of a pure vr offering. Apples is more ar and augmented reality and it simulates your eyes so if you and i are talking, you can feel like youre talking to me, so is apple with this headset potentially going to be able to capitalize on the next wave for product demand much like it has for the iphone for the past 15 years. If they do, kelly, it will take a long time. I used the vision pro when apple unveiled it this summer in june. Look, its very similar in theory, in concept and just not in execution as what meta has. They have their own pro headset that feature, if you go down by the specs and what they can do and apple, cuted it about thor and the visuals is better and having the sense of presence in the room and its also 3500 bucks. Its not coming out until next year and this will be inskredibly limited availability, u. S. Only, apple stores only before they expand from there. If it does take off it will take quite a bit and it will not be with the first version, kelly. These events are typically a bearish catalyst for apple and suppliers for some period of time. I think we saw apple shares up about a percent. I dont know where were at now, but look, this always happens before an iphone event, buy the rumors, sell the news type of thing, but the real thing i think everyone watching now should be watching out for is whether or not the rumors about a price increase actually takes place. Like we said at the top of the segment. Tim cook actually told me that himself last month that demand for the Iphone Smartphones are just falling and do they feel they can raise prices on the pro phones . We know people are willing to pay more for the pro phones. Last year they couldnt make enough of the pro phones to sell to people so maybe they can carry that over this year. So that will be the thing to watch more so anything than the gadgets can do themselves. Shares go nowhere in the past three months and steve, one reason why i launched an iphone event is because it was eastern. Ill be here 24 hours and live in cupertino, well have full coverage of the event and laura, stay right there. The fact that the standoff between disney and charter has come to an end kind of expected this, didnt you . Just in time for monday night football and disney shares rebounding from the lowest close in nearly a decade and the real question is what were the terms and concessions. What do we know so far . Disney and charter announcing what they call a transformational agreement. What sources tell me is a modern melding of linear tv and digital distribution that sets a precedent and gives a huge boost to the reach of disney with ads. The ads for disney will be included in spectrum tv select video packages, not for free, but what they kull a wholesale arrangement guaranteed for all of spectrum video subscribers and espn will be included in certain video packages and when it launches its Consumer Service it will include an offer for select customers. Plus, charter says they will sell all of disneys d to c services to its broadbandonly customers. While it wont impact the higher profile channels and it is upon droing xd and other channels and that is far outweighed by new compensation for disney and the upside for having ads on disney and chart heras a new value to obtain business subscribers and its seen as a winwin as both of these partners in this new video ecosystem or are trying to figure out how to attract or retain subscribers. Lets see if you think it is a winwin. Whats your initial response as we continue to awaiting for thor details. I agree with Julie Bernstein perfectly meaning that i think this is great for disney because it lets them keep 70 of espns revenue come from the charter fees and plus they have 30 advertising and it helps them keep their 15 million house espn sft big win for disney gives them compet of advantage and what it does is send us back to the linear tv ecosystem. Well continue to decline and great for chrter, but great for disney, as well. Julia, forgive me, do we know including any of the disney bundles, thats one thing charter wanted was that people who were charter subscribers would get ak sus to hulu or espn . Is that in here now . That was the key piece of this, kelly, is that disney said if youre going to get disney for your subscribers youll have to pay extra. They want to offer that for free and what they arranged here is theyre paying a wholesale fee to disney for disney . If youre a charter subscriber, you will get access to disney with ads for a wholesale fee that charter is paying. So what that means is that disney is going to get many more people who are going to be watching disney , and therefore exposed to their advertising and then also disney gets the wholesale fee. Its not the retail fee, and it is also not nothing which is what charter was offering. Some traders and investors were thinking it could go that route. So theres no extra cost to charter subscribers . So this is all a part from what i understand, of the negotiation. Every time theres one of these negotiations charter has to pay a little bit more to disney, and by the way, they are paying more for the channels that theyre keeping and they will not pay for disney, but they are paying a rate increase and theyll be paying a wholesale fee and able to include disney for ads with customers. Of course, kelly, we know these paid tvs and companies that offer a paid tv do increase prices every once in a and this is part of that equation. I think the Central Point is exactly as youed. I think well see annual declines and does that mean disney as vulnerable in the sense that hey, does this give them stronger ground to stand on for a while . I think is a melting ice cube and this is way more important that disney kept espn because it is really important for Warner Brothers and paramount that the linear tv bundle dissolves slowly and not quickly, but yes, this now means we have another ten years of Free Cash Flow from the linear tv bundle which gives those companies more content and the ability to spend more content to compete with netflix and youtube videogenerated content. Its become an economy, so competition is anything, so you of the the revenue stream coming from charter and comcast because it gives you more money to invest in content and try to retain attention. And we see disney shares up about a percent and with the debt load they have to your point, that cash flow becomes all the more crucial. Well leave it there for now. Thank you both very, very much today. We appreciate it, Julia Boorstin and laura martin. Still to come, signs of life for chinas economy and are all of the worries about the looming collapse overblown . Well debate that. Is it time to look past the cpi print . Well look at which inflation data is most moving the markets and whether it matters as much to fed officials now as it did earlier in this year. As we go to break, lets get a look at stocks and the dow is underperforming with the 75point gain and the nasdaq up threequarters of a percent and even the russell is in the green and the tenyear yield is up after 4 30. Were back after this. This is the exchange on cnbc. With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that, too. Is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations . Yeah absolutely. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. Welcome back. Its a big week for cpi ahead and the fed wont care about the data and the other says you shouldnt care either. What does matter for investors here . Joining me is david bonnsan and brian weinstein, america an stanleys head of fixed income. Welcome to both of you. All right, david. What are you following, then . Football . What matters for investors . Well, unfortunately, football doesnt party for investors, but it certainly mattered last night for this cowboy fan. In terms of what the fed will do, i think that the fed is falling markets. Markets are not falling the fed, and i think it is a fait accompli that they will pause again at the end of september. Futures are still indicating a sort of a junk ball ahead of the november meeting and the odds are weighted towards no new movement and at this point the cpi issues are very, very clear and Oil Prices May very well bring headline levels higher, but the Shelter Housing number that has been so distorted, so lagged and so wrong for so long and thats coming down and the fed knows it. Obviously, rents are going to come down eachven more and bria you say the cpi doesnt matter like the fed did. We have to wait and see what theyve accomplished and the numbers will move around a bit and the exciting part is over, and watching every single number, theyve told us, right . They want to pause and they want to watch it, and i think deep down they dont want to do any more. Time will tell and the market will force their hand and not for a while. So are both of you saying hotter than expected cpi number . I would argue that Inflation Expectations in the consumer sentiment, and if they jumped to 5 and even then, brian, what do you think . Theyve been anchored and they havent done much and sure, there could be reasons why the fed would want to do more. Im surprised that they havent pointed us away from the month to month cpi data and they should probably tell us now, but i dont think that even the hot number here will force it. Is it jobs what becomes the tier 1. I think what we need to look at is the more forwardlooking data and the claims have been well behaved and rental information is coming out and theres reason to believe in softness out there, but yeah, i think moving away from every single months cpi number and every single months employment number is the thing that will change the next meeting and its time to do that. What would you say is the more important data points to follow . One of them, i dont want to be cynical amount and the fact that were going into an elections year and i just dont believe that the fed has to be raising rates in the Election Year and kelly, thats not a partisan comment. It could be either party in office, and its simply it could be per seved as putting a thumb on the scale with the national politics. They didnt touch rates all of 2016 when their dot plot said they were going to raise rates four times, and so you go back to 94 and the heat that greenspan took in those midterms when they were raising rates in the middle of that first bill clinton term, they mostly stayed out of the politics sense and i think hiking rates when theyre already at 550 basis points going into Election Year, its just very unlikely. So let me translate this also to, david obviously follows bonds more. Im sorry, david, youre more of of a stocks guy. I looked at the list and the fact that you followed kenview jumped out at me because kenvoi, t the owner are tylenol broke below the ipo price and has been getting attention ahead of the week that weve been having. Why do you think this is an area of opportunity . We already owned it. It just didnt exist because we owned a Johnson Johnson and it was the third of the Johnson JohnsonBalance Sheet was this Consumer Products division, and so now we have a separated entity that has a lower multiple and a higher dividend yield and like you mentioned, tylenol, bandaid, shampoo and all of these wonderful, Consumer Products that we believe in, and we believe its at a multiple opportunity that will do well. It sold off last week because a lot of people got kenview at a 7 discount in the spinoff that j j, did, so they were taking dwant amg of free money and it reprices, resets and we think ken view is a long hold and when you look at some of the valuations and high tech and that kind of things. Lets talk bonds and i see the tenyear inching back and to quote your commends from the company. This the buy of a life time . I dont want to play pol tux, who is going to cut spenting for the rest of the year and some parties want to cut taxes and we have a high one to start and we are so used to it being so low, but why not take a twoiyear treasury or a money market fund. At these rates . Yeah. You are comfortable in the short end and not for the long end. The opportunity of a life time and t