The nasdaq has them all beaten, up more than 5 . Lets get with bob pisani. Bob . Its very popular for people to say mr. Bernanke didnt say anything new. But you know what, a lot of people seem to think there was something new here, the dow went up almost 200 points. Highly accommodated . Yes, its a psychological effect but its a big one. Tapering could still occur. The fed is going to keep Interest Rates near zero for a long, long time. Emerging markets, cyclical, intrastate move to the upside. Steady all day and a nice move up late in the day. A lot of that move was through the technology stocks. Take a look at the big leaders, microsoft with that organization, all of these stocks moving to the upside. Big day for cyclicals. Commodity stocks. Theyve had a terrible Second Quarter overall. Weve seen big moves in gold, copper, and silver. Housingrelated stocking, Interest Rate groups did good as well. Mr. Bernanke calmed fears of raising Interest Rates. Finally, i want to point out, emerging markets have been the biggest debacle. Turkey, peru, thailand, these are exchangetraded funds down 20 in the Second Quarter. This is their best day in at least several months. Bill and maria, back to you. Can we keep rallying for much longer . And are we in danger of a longanticipated correction . Joining us tonight, heather hughes, kenny picari and stan stova stovall. Someone asked me, why is the market at an alltime high right now. What is your answer to that question . Its sort of as the fed turns. You dumped them, let it go. What i mean, the market tapered and now, as we heard, he brought back highly accommodate tif. Its almost, why would we withdraw . We know that well have to withdraw or wind down the 3. 4 trillion balance sheet. So the first step will be tapering. Why not let markets go ahead and price that in . So far, they have basically gone from upset over the Federal Reserve beginning the wind down to euphoria. Not believing it that fed is going to wind back in september. My question for you, sam, is about earnings. Here we are on the doorstep of real busyness in terms of the secondquarter reports. What are you expecting in terms of secondquarter profits . S p capital consensus looking for a 3 year over year increase in the Second Quarter. Certainly not as good as i think a lot of investors would hope. But typically what we find is the difference between the estimated number at the beginning of the reporting period and the actual number is about 4 percentage points. So instead of getting 3 , maybe we get something closer to 7 , which would imply that this earnings improvement would continue. Kenny, im going to ask you the same question. We were supposed to have a 10 correction some time before we took off. We had a 5 pullback in the month in june. Now were off to the races. What happened . Were off to the races because look what happened. He came out and said he pushed any thought of a september tapering way back. That whole conversation, everyone got together and said, absolutely, september is when its going to happen. The markets started to price and the market threw a temper tantrum because it realizes, without all of the stimulus, we shouldnt be trading at the levels that were trading. Were in for a 3 Earnings Growth. We are seeing them beat the number on the bottom line. Why are we at alltime highs celebrating when in fact these companies are not going to blow the roof off of bus earnings. So its confusing. And so really ben bernanke came out yesterday and said, look, heres what were going to do. Not only is it not going to happen in september, were going to keep the foot on the gas until we feel its Strong Enough to goes. Now he took the whole september thing right out of the book. Do you think thats true, though, that he took september right out of the books . Lets parse through what bernanke said. One of the things that i think is incredibly interesting is the current Unemployment Rate underestimates the jobs report. Does anybody think its as good as it looks on the face of it . When you look at it, its a lot of parttime jobs and lowpaying jobs. Its not the healthy job market that we really want to see. Its good. Im not saying its horrible. But what matters more . The fed or the earnings right now . Earnings, if anything, i dont think would boost the markets, as we stated. Seblthd half of the year, earnings and guidance is going to have to be revised down. The market rallied on the fed being more accommodate tif. Do you agree . I think were talking about stuff today but the market is being looking at things six months down the road. Prices lead fundamentals and right now prices are telling us that they expect second half gdp to be up in the 3. 5 range that we start to see earnings improvement. And the earnings are reflecting that, sam, for the Fourth Quarter were getting earnings expectations of 12 increase. I dont get this idea that the only reason the stock market is up is because the fed is behind it. Look what happened to the market we have historic look what happened after the fed News Conference when bernanke made all of those comments, he was specific about when they were going to start tapering and when they were going to finish the tapering and it scared the heck out of the markets. Of course its about the fed. Its absolutely about the fed. Every time theres any indication that the fed is going to walk away, the market rolls right over. Yeah. And then they said, everybody out to go across the country. Then they said, youve misunderstood, were not going anywhere. Everythings good. And then boom. What is working now . Weve got oil prices above 106 a barrel. Thats a negative. I put that in the negative column. Are oil stocks reacting to that . Where is the strength in stock and do you want to own those stocks right now . You and then i want to hear from bob. I think oil is going to be a big problem. I think you want to be in investor land. I think you want to be in some of the banksing names and certainly in technology. Sam is right, its a discounting mechanism. Its looking out six months but i think thats really where you want to be. Oil and gas are skyrocketing. Its going to take the path of least resistance. I dont think supply and demand will hold here. Besides the u. S. Housing, oil and Gas Production may lead the market. The defensive sectors . Better to be safe than sorry. Yes. I think again, not the yields that are Interest Rate sensitive. Bob, whats working here . I mean, the transports doing better recently . What else is working . One thing i want to comment on, notice that even though notice, the comedy base is up, the Energy Stocks themselves are not following oil. Thats because the traders and Energy Stocks are believing that the Global Economic growth is not there. This is fast money thats going into oil on concerns about global insecurities that may be very short term, including whats going on in egypt. I think its important to point that out. Im not so sanguine on materi s materials, for example. Certainly thats an issue. A lot of people did you say sanguine . Sanguine. You have sangri on the rocks. You guys dont have a target on the s p for the next 12 months. Thats right. Its 1780 but if i have a fear, its were going to get there probably before yearend. The concern is that the market basically you have people on the sidelines who are upset that they are missing out on this rally. We were down only 5. 8 through june 24th and people saying, darn, i missed it again. Right. Sam, do you believe that this is all a bunch of nonsense, due to the Federal Reserve . Sam stovall, were at historic highs. Will you give earnings some credit here instead of just saying this is all the Federal Reserve . I havent seen the evidence yet, bob. Listen to what sam said. Sam said 3 Earnings Growth is what weve got now. They beat by 4 points. I bet you if the historic comes in to play here, sam will have 6 Earnings Growth in the Fourth Quarter. I think were going through a painful metamorphis, going from a liquidityled rally to a fundamentally led rally. Have a nice sanguine on the rocks as you leave. Thank you. One of historics most notorious bears turned bullish back in march. There you are. There she is. Is adam parker having a stran change of heart . Also, they will lay out the three stocks you need to know right now. Dont forget about commodities. Will gold continue to lose its shine with investors . Advice you cant afford to miss out on. Stay with us. This special coverage of markets at alltime high. [ male announcer ] this is betsy. 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Welcome back to our special coverage of markets at alltime highs as the records hit record level, is this a bull or a bear . Adam parker is chief u. S. Strategist with morgan stanley. He has some experiences on both sides of that call heading into 2013 he made a bearish call on equities but then he had a change of heart back in march and turned a lot more positive on the markets and the markets have soared more than 7 since that time. So, is he still optimistic and why . Adam is going to tell us where he is telling his clients to put their money. First, lets talk about march when you turned from bull to bearish. What was it that you saw in the markets that made you more optimistic and is it still there . I figured the fed would be accommodate tif. We called it the hall pass, maria, which is no matter what you heard in the Second Quarter, you could still dream the second half was going to be better. We had bad april earnings, bad april jobs print, bad in may, production market goes higher, higher, higher because you think the fed is going to be there. As we talked about a couple weeks ago on your show, it changed because bernanke told you theres diminishing returns to the efficacy of that our qe. Good jobs data, market goes up. Back when you didnt like the market, you thought earnings would continue to decline. Right. Or the rate of growth. Right. Isnt that i mean, the same debate we had last segment, is it about earnings or is it about the fed . Your view changed from earnings to the fed, didnt it . Look. We were right on the earnings. Yeah. Exactly. Declined year over year in the third quarter. I think what mattered and your question is really about that multiple, or the p. E. Ratio, and the fed was able to get the p. E. Ratio higher. We didnt want to fight that p. E. Ratio anymore. I think right now the call is much simpler. Good news in the economy will be good news for the market. Bad news will be bad. I dont think its going to be a great earnings season but its going to be better than april. April had bad guidance. I think its going to be better. Look at the companies that report in may and june. They give us better numbers than in may and april. Didnt see any big releases from tech to make me worried. I dont think the euro moved so much from april that im worried about big misses for those companies. So i think its going to be a slightly better earnings season. Still pretty constructive, but theres not much multiple construction left now as we saw in the last eight, ten months. Does that mean that the market is ahead of itself and were going to get earnings disappointment . I think were going to get a little volatility in the next few months and if we can get the high earnings, i think the market moves higher. Today, does it make sense to me that the market was up as much as it was with commodity and materials . No. Bernanke didnt say anything new last night. We get that. We knew that. Thats the thing that strikes me. The market is so needy. It needs to constantly be reassured, right . We always keep saying, bernanke didnt say anything different. No. But he just said it again. Yeah. He said it again and again. We talk about this all the time. Tapering and tightening are two different concepts. Tapering is reducing in a few months. Thats not tightening. I think its going to be hard. I think the two things im worried about and you are and everyone would be, one, we cant run a deficit of 500 billion every year and we cant create a trillion every year to buy our own securities. We know something about the markets being overheated and more accommodation than normal. We need to believe that the economy is growing fast enough that we can slow down on that stuff. What about international . For a long time, the best place to put money for morgan was japan. What about the outflows of emerging markets . Do i just want to stay domestic, stay . The u. S. , or should i be looking at japan . I ultimately think you want more international exposure. Its sort of like dont fight the fed. Its interesting. We did a survey at a conference a few weeks ago. We asked them, do you think owning u. S. Stocks with e. M. Exposure will be positive or negative within the next few months . All of the responders said negative. We always try to be contrarian when we see what is going on. I think its a trough and whether chinas gdp is 4, 5, 6, isnt that better than europe anyway . Sure is. If i have a u. S. Gap, industrial, tech, exposure to faster growth and its cheaper in the market, im starting to lean in there a little more. So what are you buying here in the u. S. . Tech and industrials, they are the economically sensitive business. Tech got killed. Tech was underforming. I think its time to get more aggressive. There may be one in productivity, Like Software in particular and internet stocks. The defensive side, i still like health care. Its been our biggest overweight. Its so much cheaper than staples, utilities, telecoms. Those are the plays that got caught up in the bond yield market. They dont have the ability to grow as much. Theres a lot better dream on the health care side. Would you buy banks going into the earning season right now . We added banks a couple weeks ago. I think a lot of it has played out. People realize the tenyear yield wont back up much more dramatically from here. Paying for the front end to move two years from now seems early. I think they are going to have good results but i dont think they are going to go up as much as they indicate. I think its more balanced on that group. Uhhuh. Great to see you, adam. Thank you so much. Adam parker. Todays historic close sparked by dubbish comments by chairman been bernanke last night. What will happen when the market starts tapering its economic stimulus and what happens when bernanke leaves office . Our experts weigh in on that. Oil has been scorching hot, raising the price that you pay at the gas pump. Our expert says, has no fear. Oil could plunge back to 80 by the end of the year. What is that going to do . Ill explain why when this special coverage of markets at alltime high comes right back. Stay with us. Norfolk southern whats your function . Hooking up the country helping business run build were investing big to keep our country in the lead. Load we keep moving to deliver what you need. And that means growth, lots of cargo going all around the globe. Cars and parts, fuel and steel, peas and rice, hey thats nice Norfolk Southern whats your function . Helping this big country move ahead as one Norfolk Southern hows that function . At farmers we make you smarter about insurance, because what you dont know can hurt you. What if you didnt know that its smart to replace washingmachine hoses every five years . What if you didnt know that you might need extra coverage for more expensive items . And what if you didnt know that teen drivers are four times more likely to get into an accident . sup the more you know, the better you can plan for whats ahead. Talk to farmers and get smarter about your insurance. We are farmers bum pa dum, bum bum bum bum welcome back to our special coverage of markets at alltime high. Stocks have been red hot in july but its nothing compared to the price of oil. Gold, on the other hand, has been melting down. Bertha coombs is joining us. Bertha . Gold as of today, the weak dollar helping on gold. The dollar swooning on the comments by fed chairman ben bernanke that the fed was not ready to pull the trigger regarding Interest Rates. Gold rallying for a fourth day, reaching almost 1400 an ounce. Thats about a threeweek high or so, even though its down some 23 year to date. We are seeing some more interest coming back to gold that maybe was an inflection point, seeing some stability. Silver has been the very big mover, back at 20 an ounce and up. About 7. 5 week to date. Crude had been on fire in terms of wti nymex crude, which is delivered at cushing, oklahoma. In the last two weeks weve seen big inventory drawdown but we saw some pretty good profit taking there in the wti. But gasoline resilient and resisting that downward pull. Gasoline right now is at a threemonth high. The futures prices back above 3. Wholesale prices have really jumped over the last ten days as weve seen this big move up here in july and that is starting to feed through to the pump on the retail level prices are up 4 cents from last week. Right now averaging nationally about 3. 51 a gallon. Bill and maria . Thank you very much. Today, notwithstanding with the oil rising recently and gold dropping, except for today, equities hitting alltime highs, where do we go for investing . John kilduff is joining us and anthem. John, you said earlier to us on the air that you feel oil may have peaked here . I do. And it went right to where we needed it to get to in terms of putting a 15month high that